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Yeah but solid form will only get you so far in the Guineas antepost markets, you're points are duly noted though.
What I like about the Steinbeck run is the way that everything else that is with the pace fades but he keeps on. I thought Free Judgement's subsequent run from a similar posi to Steinbeck showed that perhaps there was an unsuitable pace to the race for those in Steinbeck's position. |
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Tirol, RVW had a rush job pre for the 2000G, it was reported in March he would not even make the Guineas, in the circumstances he did well to finish 4th. Heres hoping Steinbeck has a better prep for the Guineas than RVW did.
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My question about Steinbeck is the way he was ridden at Newmarket. Very few O'Brien runners are taken straight to the front and blaze away like that, especially given inexperience. That leads me to think that either a) he's a sprinter a la Mozart who won't get a mile strong enough to win a Guineas or b) he has so much natural ability Johnny had to let him travel at his pace and he got found out by lack of match practice. Out of a Danehill mare and having debuted over six that early on in the season (again showing loads of pace from the off), I'm inclined to think a) is the right answer at the moment. In my experience, flashy home workers who show loads of talent from an early point are often just sprinters. If he was really THAT talented, he just wouldn't be such a big price with all the main firms, regardless of SNA being in there. Whoever fancies him to be the next big thing must put Fencing Master alongside him, as he had a horror trip in the Dewhurst and his breeding suggests at least a mile will be up his street. The Dewhurst is a puzzle and good luck to those trying to solve it. It was run at a true pace and the fact that O'Brien had three of the first four suggests he holds a very strong hand in 2010 (not to mention Cape Blanco on the sidelines). Maybe SNA is the best by far, but I have a slight concern about fast ground at Newmarket catching him out, so stable and market vibes will be imperative in the lead-up. Whatever you think of Hawk Wing now, on Guineas day for me he was as good as I've seen in the race and still got beat so there is plenty of mileage in backing the second, third or even fourth string at big odds. I have to say from where I'm stood it has to be a Ballydoyle Guineas this year, it's just a question of which one..
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Excellent analysis, Led on bit. Steinbeck's pedigree doesn't fill one with confidence that he will get a truly-run mile in Group 1 company. His dam Castara Beach was very modest and was well beaten in all her five races; she was bred to stay quite well (she's a half-sister to multiple 14-16f winner Prairie Falcon, and her dam was a half-sister by Grundy to high-class stayer Sea Anchor) but she didn't seem to get home over 8-9f and she's a full sister (by Danehill) to multiple 6-7f winner Hill Hopper. Steinbeck's half-sister Varenka liked to force the pace in her races, won impressively over 7f at Beverley, but didn't last home over a mile (in a listed race in Italy). Steinbeck's ill-fated half-brother Heselrig (by Entrepreneur) was a very modest performer and in three completed starts never looked likely to get 7f, let alone a mile. There must be a chance that 6-7f will turn out to be Steinbeck's best trip.
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Going back to racecourse evidence here, he was only beaten by half a length don't forget and clearly wants a tow into the race, something I said at the start of this thread and O'Brien then said in his last interview. Was definitely coming back at the finish.
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If you watch the horses in the Dewhurst after they had past the finishing post some looked tired, but Steinbeck was**ing his ears, which i think suggests there was still something left to give.
A few seasons back there was a big debate as the whether Ravens Pass would stay 1 mile, he ended up winning over 1m2f. As horses get older they tend to need further ( imo ). Still if Steinbeck does not stay expect him to win the July Cup! |
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I cant see that for one second Push imo he has not got the speed for a race like that.
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I was taking the O Brien line, Mozart went for the July Cup after failing to stay in the Irish Guineas, and Stravinsky went for the JC after winning over 7f at Ascot, failed to stay in the Dewhurst.
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Ladbroks have introduced SNA at 2-1 for the 2000 Guineas due to supply and demand.
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Supply and demand my A£$%
Lots of demand to back it at 2/1 with them lol. Just an exercise in publicity for them imo. |
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Earform^
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how many idiots will back SNA at 2/1 when 3/1 easilly available elsewhere???
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Obviously some clowns about
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not you then!
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Does Beethoven have a chance in the Guineas ? Seemed not to like France so may as well go to Newmarket and made big improvement for the visor / better ground / and faster pace. 50-1 seems a big price for a Dewhurst winner.
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Thats because it was a poor Dewhurst.
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PDonna, for all those that believe in the Lads/Ballydoyle connection, Lads are the shortest at 20-1 about Beethoven for the Guineas. I am interested to see how these Oratorios progress with age, Oratorio was beaten in the Dewhurst but went on to be topclass at 3.
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Push,I think you may be right regarding Oratorio,you hear a lot that he was a very good 3 y'old but dont forget he was also very good at 2,winning the Prix Jean-Luc' and 2nd in the Dewhurst,from what we have seen so far it looks like he might make it, but I for one dont think F.Master or Beethoven are good enough to win the GNS.
One thing that I dont like about Beethovan is the fact he runs in blinkers at 2,if he needs those now to keep his mind on the job how on earth is he going to win the 2000 when he has to fight for the line,and before you say he won the Dewhurst in them remember the GNS will be much harder to win than that Handicap finish that we saw last Oct'in the Dewhurst. |
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Last years Dewhurst was a H-Cap finish to use your words and Delegator ran a fine race in the Guineas. Another H-Cap finish in the Dewhurst was Rock of Gibs who won the Guineas the 2nd Landseer won the French Guineas and the 4th Where or When won the QEII. As for Fencing Master ( by Oratorio ) it was only his 2nd race of his career , so it is impossible to know how much improvement there is to come, he was discribed in the paddock as " a big slab of a horse ", so i expect him to make a good 3yo.
Beethoven does not have the profile of a Guineas winner , but he was getting better with each race. |
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I know you are into pedigrees ( PD ) in last years Guineas both 1000 and 2000 the best bred horse won. There are no outstanding pedigrees in this years 2000G , but i would say Fencing Master has probably the best pedigree of the main contenders.
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Push,So what about races from years ago,means nothing this years race and the runners Im talking about,and talking of Delagator I think that horse did show a lot but as time has gone on he really is only a GR2 horse always just short when it comes to it,rather like one of your other fancy's for the GNS.........I think you know who!
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See he has finally been cut today buy SBet from12s to 10-1.
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From todays RPost " Steinbeck has done well, and is definitely in the Guineas picture ".
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also confirmation that SNA is also in the frame for the guineas (if he runs he will be the only horse in the frame when they pass the post)
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Well I'm not sure he'll be tailed off... ;)
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Ben, You must be joking,the one who will be left behind is your wonder horse,I bet if S'beck runs he wont be out for ages after,yet another little niggle.
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lol Ben, nice crack.
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Growing pains ( PD ) :)
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Has this thread really only been going on for 33 days.
It seems so much longer :^0 |
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Just under 3 months to go ;)
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Ben and Push,Three monthes it is then ..........till the rug is pulled from under your feet!HA!HA!
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He is not the only horse we are interested in ( PD ) i am sure O Brien has others we can back.
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To you both,Listen I am only joking good luck to you if you really do think he can win,but as you know I cant even see him getting a place if he runs,he along with your others will have to improve a hell of a lot to beat the one im going for!
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I'm on Cape Blanco at some decent prices, not as much as Stenbeck though. Also had a small play on Stunning View but figure that may be in the bin now, possible for the Irish though.
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Did you get SNA at good odds ? or are you just going to back him on the day ?
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Push,who are you asking?
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Certainly not me ;)
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You PD.
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Ben 10, in todays RPost O Brien says he sees Cape Blanco as a middle distance prospect.
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Yeah I figured they might say that, think he'd be OK over the trip but probably would get done by a speedier horse, don't fancy him over 1m4f tbh.
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