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Yes, just blooming at the right time Derek.
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Poor old Johannesberg was burnt out at 3 after 7 wins at two inc the 9f breeders cup,Henry Hughes won a Gr1 at 3, Grand Armee won 2 Gr1's at 3, Half hennessey won a Gr1 over 12f at 3,Sunrise Bacchus won a Gr1 at 4 over 8f. then those by Distant View Special Duty's dames sire, Observatory won the QE2 over a mile at 3.Siteseek won
4 Gr1's at 3. and Summer View won at 8f at 3. |
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cruise d, I've said before I'm with you on Music Show but do you really need to be going back in at around 6s when you've already had 33s or 40s or whatever? It may sound a bit boring but wouldn't a saver on Special Duty be a more sensible option at this point? Obviously, it's your call, good luck mate and here's hoping MS does the business.
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Atasari, Gold Bubbles, Famous and You'll Be Mine have all been declared non-runners by their trainers, leaving a maximum field of 19 (final declarations tomorrow morning). Waiting to hear whether any of the following are intended starters: Distinctive, Habaayib, Jacqueline Quest, Jira, Pipette, Sent From Heaven.
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Richie you are probably right. However if she looks right, I get the same impression I did from her last October and the ground is OK I can see myself having a few quid on her on the day as well. Wouldn't be much but just enough to then maybe roll any potential winnings over in to the Pretty Polly on the Gosden runner if she looks well.
I've always been all eggs in one basket type of gambler, it's just my way. Believe me I've trawled the form over and over again for weeks trying to convince myself to back a few others as a saver but I just can't get any confidence in anything else. Seta will be a superstar if she wins and I will be in awe of people that got huge prices on her but I just can't see her staying, Seta is too short as is Rumoush IMO and the one I was considering backing Pollenator has shortened so much that I just can't back her now. |
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^ I would agree with that summary cruise d, am in the same boat, did like Pollenator over Hibaayeb as a saver, but not now at the price. (presume you meant Special Duty not Seta will be a superstar...* ).
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If it rains and turns the going to g/s or worse does Seta go off favourite
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Well spotted Downstaller, yes I meant Special Duty. Must be getting senile!
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i would agree Special Duty is the one they all gotta beat, top class form and im a backer.
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Would Fallon have had the choice between Music Show and Seta? Not that his replacement jockey is a worry.
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He did have the choice as such but has a verbal agreement to ride for Cumani this season whenever possible. Given the length of the season and the likely winners and class horses Cumani has Fallon was never gonna get off Seta. Fallon said along that if Cumani had a runner he'd be on it. He did also say that there was nothing to choose between Seta and Music Show which I'm sure is the case however he was never gonna talk down the chances of a horse that he was likely to be riding in a classic at that stage.
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18 confirmed runners. No surprises among the defectors: Atasari, Gold Bubbles, Famous, You'll Be Mine, Jira. I was expecting Pipette to be an absentee on account of the fast ground, but with some rain forecast in the next 48 hours she will presumably take her chance.
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1 (14) 2125-2 Blue Maiden 16 3 9-0 Jamie Spencer
P. J. Mcbride 2 (5) 3312-2 Devoted To You (IRE) 40 3 9-0 Johnny Murtagh A. P. O'Brien, Ireland 3 (7) 3117-6 Distinctive 16 3 9-0 Tom Eaves B. Smart 4 (2) 15-2 Gile Na Greine (IRE) 21 3 9-0 K. J. Manning J. S. Bolger, Ireland 5 (3) 31128-2 Habaayib 13 3 9-0 Tadhg O'Shea E. A. L. Dunlop 6 (13) 3221- Hibaayeb 216 D1 3 9-0 Frankie Dettori Saeed Bin Suroor 7 (4) 217-7 Jacqueline Quest (IRE) 16 3 9-0 Tom Queally H. R. A. Cecil 8 (8) 3132- Lady Darshaan (IRE) 216 3 9-0 William Buick J. S. Moore 9 (17) 112192-4 Misheer 13 3 9-0 Neil Callan C. E. Brittain 10 (15) 1101-1 Music Show (IRE) 16 C2 3 9-0 Ryan Moore M. R. Channon 11 (12) 5232- Nurture (IRE) 181 3 9-0 George Baker R. M. Beckett 12 (10) 13-1 Pipette 27 D1 3 9-0 Jimmy Fortune A. M. Balding 13 (16) 62211- Pollenator (IRE) 231 D1 3 9-0 Richard Hughes R. Hannon 14 (11) 14242-1 Puff (IRE) 13 3 9-0 Jim Crowley R. M. Beckett 15 (18) 1-1 Rumoush (USA) 16 C1 D1 3 9-0 Richard Hills M. P. Tregoning 16 (6) 1314- Sent From Heaven (IRE) 216 3 9-0 Michael Hills B. W. Hills 17 (9) 13- Seta 231 3 9-0 Kieren Fallon L. M. Cumani 18 (1) 2121-3 Special Duty 22 C1 3 9-0 Stephane Pasquier Mme C. Head-maarek, France |
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I'm really happy with Music Show's draw there. The pace will probably come from Misheer and being drawn high looks to be an advantage. I'm not sure 1 is the best for Special Duty though.
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There seems to be plenty of pace among the low numbers: apart from Special Duty (1), who may be held up just off the pace, Jacqueline Quest (4) and Sent From Heaven (6) are likely to be prominent.
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cruise d, fair play mate, it's your call! I just think Music Show and Special Duty are by far the most likely winners so as you'd got yourself into a great trading position you might want to hedge your bets a little. MS is still my main play anyway so here's hoping...
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Looks like a fair bit of rain Saturday night/Sunday morning.
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The only time Music Show has been beaten was on ground with give in it, not looking too good with all the rain forecast for Sunday.
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The forecast that matters(John Kettley's) means it will be G/F (GOOD IN PLACES) Saturday.
Good (g/f in places) Sunday. |
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Devoted to You
Still overpriced at 25/1. No problem with soft ground or trip. Decent prep run. With the right stable. |
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just put money on at 27 el apache and was about to post the same as you. surely an O'Brien 1st string wont be going off at that price?
also has some good form behind her. have backed Pollenator already but am happy to have devoted to you running at that price for me |
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Devoted to You wont be this price after SNA hoses up.
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Devoted to You
14 from 25/1 with Sid James! |
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Course Newmarket
Next Race Saturday 1st May Report Date Saturday 1st May; 08:15 Going Good to Firm GoingStick 8.7 Additional Information 3mm of rain from 4pm on Friday, Stalls: Stand Side Course 1000 Guineas and 12f Handicap centre. Remainder Stand side Weather Forecast Saturday: Bright and dry am with showers pm Sunday: Rain overnight which will clear away mid morning 10mm http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html |
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ttt
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Backed Devoted To You and Lady Darshaan EW with slybet who are paying four places. Small stakes as a jumps man.
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The bookies will probably play on the misconception of seta needing cut. She doesn't need it, and would prefer good ground from what i've read.
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have you not read into what King Kieran has said? How about the sire - have you read into the sire?? Pivitol's usually need a cut in the ground. Come on, the way she travelled when she finished 3rd, just looked she was a bit weak, still a big baby. If the rumours are true that she has wintered well and that the ground is right up her street. Right jockey, right trainer, has the form on the course, Seta at 5/1 is a cracking each way bet. You could trade out in running too..
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my tricast
1-special duty 2-pipette 3-lady darshan |
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My tricast:-
1- Music Show 2- Habaayib 3- Puff |
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Just about to set off for the Rowley Mile now.
Good luck all. I really hope mine and the likes of Special Duty run their race. I'll try and get on when I get back if I'm not too sozzled. |
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Well done James SP a great result.
I feel absolutely gutted about Music Show. Clearly the ground was better on the stands side rail as the results showed. Nobody is mentioning it but Music Show beat all of them on her side and was really unlucky. This is what Channon had to say:- "What can you say? Music Show won her race on the far side, but that's no consolation," Channon said. "On form with [Jacqueline Quest] and [fifth] Distinctive, they might have improved massively since the Nell Gwyn, we might have regressed, but I'm not having that. They've beaten us from a low draw and it was the draw that has meant we were well out of it from a long way out. It's just one of those things and while I'd never say we would have definitely won, it's blatantly obvious that the draw favoured those on the stand side. You can't track across from so wide a draw in a Classic, that would be suicide." He added on his website: "Ryan [Moore] was gutted, I'm gutted, but that's racing. It's nobody's fault, just our bloody luck. "I'll tell you one thing though, I'd still have our filly over anything else in the race. It's a long season and I just want to take them all on again to see which filly is the best about because ours will take some beating." |
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I agree that those drawn high had no chance (Channel 4's side-on camera showed that the high-drawn fillies were several lengths behind at one stage) and that Music Show ran a blinder. A very unsatisfactory race and I feel particularly sorry for Jacqueline Quest's owner Noel Martin: if Tom Queally had pulled his whip through to his right hand the result might have been different (we'll never know).
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It was the same in every race where draw bias could come into it too. In the race before hand Honimere nearly stole it by running slone on the rail. The sprint after was won from stall 5 with 8 and 5 in 2nd and 3rd, also on one runner drawn high got into the top 8 (Genki ran a blinder to get 4th from 25). The maiden was won from stall 1 as well.
The more I think about it the worse I feel. The horses that finished in the top 5 in the guineas were rated as follows on their previous form....... 1st Special Duty 117 drawn in stall 1 2nd Jaqueline Quest 97 (upsides we'll say was the distance) stall 4 3rd Gile Na Greine 88 (a head down on special duty) stall 2 4th Sent From Heaven 105 (half a length off the 3rd) stall 6 5th Distinctive 102 (a further 5 lengths back) stall 5 6th Music Show 110 (3 quartes of a length back) stall 15 The proximety of some pretty ordinary horses to the winner yesterday means that either they all improved massively at the same time which is unlikely or that it was a below par guineas. I believe that Music Show had the beating of the field yesterday and that is hard to take when she would have been the biggest winner of my life by some way. She has already beaten Jaqueline Quest and Distinction easily in the Nell Gwynn easily whilst giving them weight. At least it goes some way proving what I have been saying for the last month in that the race was a better form guide than it appeared to be on face value and that those trying to under rate it did so at their peril. |
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cruise d Joined: 15 Sep 04
Replies: 213 03 May 10 10:05 I believe that Music Show had the beating of the field yesterday and that is hard to take when she would have been the biggest winner of my life by some way. She has already beaten Jaqueline Quest and Distinction easily in the Nell Gwynn easily whilst giving them weight. At least it goes some way proving what I have been saying for the last month in that the race was a better form guide than it appeared to be on face value and that those trying to under rate it did so at their peril. Dyna Watlz has now beaten the really well regarded Timepeice in an Oaks trial and Sfina has won albeit a maiden. I'm still stewing over the Guineas[;)]. |
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*Safina
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