Trialanderror

Markab has great form but it's all on fast ground. Delegator is a dodgy proposition being unreliable and trying sprinting for the first time. Dalghar has never actually won at 6 furlongs.

The likable Rose Blossom isn't quite up to this level yet. On ground with some cut REGAL PARADE is one of the best 6 to 7 furlong horses in Europe. He got to within 2 lengths of Goldikova over 7f and within 1 length of Dick Turpin last back end, he also beat Fleeting Spirit over 6f in a Group 1 the year before. The other one I like is GENKI, who could win a lifetime consistancy award. Placed 16 from 18 on turf in fields under 25 and one of those two beatings was when he was caught in a pocket and couldn't get out behind JJ The Jetplane. Sometimes beaten by the draw in bigger fields he still won the Stewards Cup in 2009 and was fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup last season and also won on the wrong side in the Wokingham. With a record like his he obviously goes on any ground.

I didn't expect to see anything much in the draw but noticed that 9 of the last 10 winners were drawn in the low half, and 7 in the low third. 7 seconds were drawn high so maybe the bias is  not to be taken too seriously. However the one who did win from a higher draw was in the smallest field with only 11 runners and the winner The Kiddykid drawn 9 drifted to the centre.

We can assume that REGAL PARADE ( drawn 12 ) is fit but we can't be sure, so with GENKI's consistancy ( drawn 5 ) he has to be the EW bet at about 7-1.

2 pts ew GENKI betfair sp

1 pt win REGAL PARADE 6-1 generally

1 pt rev forecast GENKI, REGAL PARADE. Should pay 40-1

Twice a course and distance winner CASTLES IN THE AIR ran well behind Evens And Odds last time out. Golden Desert has good course form but does best from late July. Himalya does well at a high level but never wins.The selection ran well here last time at Ascot, 6th behind Redford
after tacking across from the high numbers to join the far side group.He won a 21 runner handicap here in August and runs today with only 1lb more to carry.He looks the best option at,
18-1, 5 places with Stan James



At this time last year DANSILI DANCER was running off 103 on turf against the likes of Harbinger and giving a stone to The Fonze. The handicapper has been generous dropping him to 90. He is rated 110 on the AW and his recent second to Nideeb in the Winter Derby shows he is not finnished yet.
4.35 Ascot. 1pt EW 9-1 Totesport

St Nicholas Abbey looked good in 2009. He easily beat Elusive Pimpernel and Al Zir in the Racing Post Trophy with Dancing David a close 4th. The only Group form ever there was a couple of Group 3's for Elusive Pimpernel. St Nicholas Abbey was 6th in the 2000 gns and we didn't see him again until dissapointing at the Curragh last month. Personally I swerve horses who have been injured on the flat. HARRIS TWEED has been aimed at this since he won here last September. He will lead and a fast pace will leave the two outsiders behind. That  just leaves ALLIED POWERS. He beat Patkai here as a 3yo and won a Group 2 at Chantilly last year beating among others Chinon who won a Group 1 in the U.S a month later. He has had a run at Newbury and his trainer Michael Bell says he always needs a run to get straight. Hopefully St Nicholas Abbey will be favorite but I could see him drifting. I would see him as a 3-1 chance rather than 6/4. Of course 3-1 shots do win, but hopefully not this one.
1 point win HARRIS TWEED 13/8 W.HILLS & STANLEY JAMES
1 pt ew ALLIED POWERS.
1 pt Reverse Forcast HARRIS TWEED / ALLIED POWERS.

In the 4.55 Novice hurdle at Punchestown Wed. BATTLE GROUP stands out. He comfortably won his last race at Aintree beating some tough campaigners including last years winner Ringaroses and course winner Sir Harry Ormshire. I wonder how these other novices would have coped. The Aintree race has previously been won by Time For Rupert and Alberta’s Run.It was only BATTLE GROUPS second attempt at todays distance of 3 miles. There are some promising youngsters here but the selection might know a bit more at this stage.

1 pt EW BATTLE GROUP @ 8-1 , 1/4 odds a place with 365.

Or  7-1 win generally but don’t take 1/5 odds for a place.

Sorry Tastahil was second to Samuel in the Doncaster Cup not the Chester Cup

Barry Hills has won the Chester Cup 4 times, twice with a horse called Rainbow High who had a very similar profile to Tastahil this years entry.
Last year Tastahil was second when drawn 16. He joined the leader by the first bend which takes some doing from there. He then ran round the track one off the rail taking a slightly longer route to the winner Mamlook who was positioned on the rail chasing the leader. This year Tastahill is drawn 3 which means he can track on the rail behind those drawn in 1 and 2, Overturn and La Vecchia Scuola. The former is a confirmed front runner and the latter has led the last 2 times he has run at Chester.Tastahil improved last season being second to Samuel in the Chester Cup. Motrice was third a head behind that day only to be beaten 5 lengths into second to Tastahil in the Jockey Club Cup later at Newmarket. They will go off fast this year and those who stuggle for position may get left too far behind. I expect Tastahil to be relaxed just behind the leaders and show his class off the final bend. In the last 10 years horses drawn from 1 to 5 have won 6 times. Barry Hills reports him in great form but hopes the ground won't be too firm for him. Last year although officially "good" the time was close to standard and in the Doncaster Cup again the going was good but the time was 1 second faster than standard suggesting that good to firm will be acceptable on Wednesday.
1.5 pts EW. TASTAHIL @ 10-1 generally.Non Runner No Bet.

Frankel went off like a tornado leaving a trail of devastation behind him.Some good horses tried to go with him and had blown their chances by half way. The time was 1 second slower than Makfi last year, so it would be interesting to see the sectionals.In fact all the times were so slow yesterday that the clerk of the course must have been very liberal with the watering can.

As for today I like Mirror Lake in the 2.35 but she has only run on sharp tracks so I prefer ELEANORA DUSE. As long as Sir Michael has sorted out why she flopped in her final run last season she goes to Newmarket with the most trustworthy homegrown form, which is better than the Woodbine and San Siro form of some of the other opposition. In the 3.50 I have to have a bet on PRIME DEFENDER 5 places ew at 20-1. His best form is in 12 or 13 runner fields so I hope he hasn't got some hang up about crowds. Last May he won a group race at York with Winston on board who understands you don't hit this lad.
ELEANORA DUSE 1 pt win
PRIME DEFENDER 1 pt ew  20-1,  5 places 365

It didn't feel quite right discarding Side Glance last week due to the price collapsing and the same was true with PATHFORK.in the Guineas today. But now he has hit 7-1 with 365 and **** he becomes an EW bet. I'm scared of Frankel but he must be taken on as the rate of improvement or deterioration between 2 and 3 years is so great that at 7-1 we can chance it. Frankel is not 14 times more likely to win and PATHFORK is about evens for a place to my reckoning.
1 pt EW PATHFORK 7-1,  365 & Boyle Sports

25 points up on this blog. I'm off to Newmarket.
Frankel may well be the real deal at three, it's about time the champion 2yo was.He has though done nothing  this season except show that he can pull hard early and gallop, as the placed horses were not serious opposition.  In the last 10 years we've seen St Nicholas Abbey evs, Dubawi 11/8, and One Cool Cat 11/8, start favorite but none of them were even placed. If Frankel wins great, and well done Henry, but there are better bets EW.
Are Aiden O'Brians horses foreward enough to do themselves justice?  That is the question.Henrythenavigator and George Washington were. Mastercraftsman, Rip Van Winkle and Duke Of Marmalade were all unplaced but showed their worth later. RODERICK O'CONNOR Was beaten 2 1/2  lengths by Frankel but he later progressed to win in France and he is 16 times the price of the favorite and Aiden did have a double yesterday. 
I backed PATHFORK at 20-1 last year for this but wouldn't see him as a great bet now at 11/2. He beat CASAMENTO a head and the latter who is 14-1  went on to win the Racing Post Trophy and is trained by in form Al Zarooni. There is sometimes a dark horse like Golan who hasn't shown his
worth yet but there are 4 top class 3yo's here that we know about.They have all grown through the winter, so are we sure we know which is best now? The stats say 2 will be placed and 2 unplaced.
At todays prices I would back.
1 pt ew CASAMENTO 14-1  Sky, Stan James.
1 pt ew RODERIC O'CONNOR 8-1
Havant beat Kawlah which looks good but how was the very ordinary Ladyanne only a length behind? Havant may be a prospect  but she's no good thing on that form. Add to that she's only run on soft. Memory's form ties in twice with Margot Did who was subsequently beaten twice by Hooray the second time by over 6 lengths. Memory was also thrashed by Misty For Me and Laughing Lashes. She is only 5-1 due to burning up the gallops but I'll take form on the course every time. The French horse MOONLIGHT CLOUD ran well against colts last season as 2008 winner Natagora did as a 2yo. She has also won the French trial the Prix Imprudence as Natagora did. Is she as good? Possibly but Natagoa won the Chevely Park as well. I took some of the 8-1, but would not get excited at 9/2.  Make A Dance is being backed and has the same profile as Ghannati who won in 2009, but the chances of a maiden winner scoring again are more than the 14-1 on offer.
I should mention HOORAY who came good at the end of last season, I had a bit when she was 16-1, but she has that "win or come nowhere" look about her. Her dam throws good 2yo's who fail at 3.  It may only be a coincidence but confidence is tempered.
The two I like at todays prices are old rivals MISTY FOR ME and LAUGHING LASHES they have the best 2yo form with the possible exception of Hooray and are both at a decent price.
1 pt ew MISTY FOR ME 8-1
1 pt ew LAUGHING LASHES 10-1

TipsterForm Book
Tom Segal Tips
PRICEWISE TIPS
Pricewise Challenge


Our new tipster

After Day 1 FORM-PRO up £625 and PRICEWISE is minus £200

Form-Pro

is taking on Pricewise.

Details to follow.

DAY TWO BETS

In the 3.05 at Ascot, Zacinto looks a dodgepot to me, his run behind Goldikova shows what he can do, first time up may be the best time to catch him but he goofs far too often to trust.  Eton Forever may develop into a goodun but he beat nothing of quality last time out in a field where those drawn low had no chance.Critical Moment is decent but took a couple of runs to hit form last year. I like  KING OF DIXIE. He has won here and was 3rd in the 2009 Victoria Cup,has won after a break 4 times now, maybe today will be number 5.  Another is the top weight ST MORITZ. He also likes it here being third in the Hunt Cup, This season he beat Kings Gambit who has won a group 3 subsequently. He may well drift to a good price as he carries a penalty. Side Glance is nice, he took an age getting going over 7f on his last run but this distance and the climb to the line will help him. He’s a course lover but is being backed this morning so I prefer my two at longer odds. 1 point to win on each.

Take Betfair SP.

3.40 Ascot. THE BETCHWORTH KID has beaten Free Agent twice yet is more than double the odds. I got the feeling its all mind games with this horse but he flew past the Queen’s horse near the line so could do it again. RAJIK improved no end over his last 4 races last term. I’m not keen on horses from small stables first time out for the season but if the odds are big enough its a calculated risk.

1 point to win on each betfair s/p

_______________________________________________________________________

Here are his first bets.

The Irish Grand National either goes to classy 3 milers like last years first two home Bluesea Cracker and Oscar Time or real stayers like Butlers Cabin and Nine De Sivola. I’ll take 3 each way, 5 places with 365, Boyle & Power. Fortune favours the brave so I’ll start with 33-1 shot A NEW STORY, ( 44 on betfair )PLACED @25/1 13 years old only he doesn’t seem to know it. Age blunts speed but not stamina. I’ll take a 12 year old in the Grand National but 13 too old. This horse is the exception that proves the rule, he loves it here and good ground is right up his street. Next is WESTERN CHARMER 20-1 2ND @16/1. ( 28 on betfair ) A classy type who has been finishing well over 3 miles. Second last time up to course specialist Mr Cracker at Limerick. The ground is an unknown but a class horse with a low weight at 20-1 is worth taking a chance with. Finally WHATYOUTHINK 14-1 ( 20 on betfair ) another with class and stamina who once beat Forpadydeplasterer on good ground, was third in this last year and ran a race full of promise last time over too short a distance.

1 point each way on all 3.

Comments: 5  |  Post a Comment  |  Trackback URL

Walt | Apr 25, 2011 | Reply
I go with The Last Derby 1 pt ew 18/1 and Cain Hill 1 pt ew 25/1 5 places.


Deadhead | Apr 25, 2011 | Reply
Well done FORM PRO. Good start.


K2 | Apr 25, 2011 | Reply
Excellent!!!


Jimbob | Apr 26, 2011 | Reply
Anything for today?


TF | Apr 26, 2011 | Reply
No bet, had a look and didn’t fancy anything strongly enough. He says he is a bit concerned about the O Brien stable form and will be watching their next 10 entries at the Irish meeting this week closely.