Trialanderror

25 points up on this blog. I'm off to Newmarket.
Frankel may well be the real deal at three, it's about time the champion 2yo was.He has though done nothing  this season except show that he can pull hard early and gallop, as the placed horses were not serious opposition.  In the last 10 years we've seen St Nicholas Abbey evs, Dubawi 11/8, and One Cool Cat 11/8, start favorite but none of them were even placed. If Frankel wins great, and well done Henry, but there are better bets EW.
Are Aiden O'Brians horses foreward enough to do themselves justice?  That is the question.Henrythenavigator and George Washington were. Mastercraftsman, Rip Van Winkle and Duke Of Marmalade were all unplaced but showed their worth later. RODERICK O'CONNOR Was beaten 2 1/2  lengths by Frankel but he later progressed to win in France and he is 16 times the price of the favorite and Aiden did have a double yesterday. 
I backed PATHFORK at 20-1 last year for this but wouldn't see him as a great bet now at 11/2. He beat CASAMENTO a head and the latter who is 14-1  went on to win the Racing Post Trophy and is trained by in form Al Zarooni. There is sometimes a dark horse like Golan who hasn't shown his
worth yet but there are 4 top class 3yo's here that we know about.They have all grown through the winter, so are we sure we know which is best now? The stats say 2 will be placed and 2 unplaced.
At todays prices I would back.
1 pt ew CASAMENTO 14-1  Sky, Stan James.
1 pt ew RODERIC O'CONNOR 8-1
Havant beat Kawlah which looks good but how was the very ordinary Ladyanne only a length behind? Havant may be a prospect  but she's no good thing on that form. Add to that she's only run on soft. Memory's form ties in twice with Margot Did who was subsequently beaten twice by Hooray the second time by over 6 lengths. Memory was also thrashed by Misty For Me and Laughing Lashes. She is only 5-1 due to burning up the gallops but I'll take form on the course every time. The French horse MOONLIGHT CLOUD ran well against colts last season as 2008 winner Natagora did as a 2yo. She has also won the French trial the Prix Imprudence as Natagora did. Is she as good? Possibly but Natagoa won the Chevely Park as well. I took some of the 8-1, but would not get excited at 9/2.  Make A Dance is being backed and has the same profile as Ghannati who won in 2009, but the chances of a maiden winner scoring again are more than the 14-1 on offer.
I should mention HOORAY who came good at the end of last season, I had a bit when she was 16-1, but she has that "win or come nowhere" look about her. Her dam throws good 2yo's who fail at 3.  It may only be a coincidence but confidence is tempered.
The two I like at todays prices are old rivals MISTY FOR ME and LAUGHING LASHES they have the best 2yo form with the possible exception of Hooray and are both at a decent price.
1 pt ew MISTY FOR ME 8-1
1 pt ew LAUGHING LASHES 10-1