I don't want to write off the Nell Gwyn form, but it's certainly a tricky race to assess. The third and fourth (and fifth, for that matter) can't really be used to help evaluate the form, so you have to use Blue Maiden as a guide (concentrating on her second to Long Lashes in the Sweet Solera Stakes last year).

Agreed: it's basically all guesswork at this stage. From the handicapping point of view, all one can reasonably do is assume that Blue Maiden, who was arguably rather unlucky in the Nell Gwyn, ran at least up to the level of her Sweet Solera form. The official handicapper gave her a mark of 105 for that performance behind Long Lashes, so if one believes that she reproduced that effort in the Nell Gwyn, Music Show can be given a rating of about 110 (which happens to be her official rating after her Rockfel win). Distinctive, who finished about 4 lengths behind Blue Maiden, was a bit short of room at a crucial stage over a furlong out and seems to have run a few pounds below her Ayr 6f form last year. That seems to be the most reasonable way of assessing the race from a handicapping point of view. Those who have backed Music Show for the Guineas should be encouraged by the fact that she appears to have run right up to her Rockfel form on her seasonal return: this suggests that she can go on and make an impact in the Guineas (if she makes the expected few pounds' improvement for that reappearance). I think it's very likely that Blue Maiden has done well from two to three: although it would be unsafe to assume she has improved on her Sweet Solera form, it's likely that she will improve a few pounds for her seasonal debut and will be capable of a higher rating in due course.

harry you have expressed your opnions really well. I hope you are wrong but we'll all see soon enough. ;)

I was just in my own way trying to point out that if you had backed Music Show at 30s plus way before the Nell Gwynn then you would be extemely happy after the race. I agree with you that at 6s the value has gone (at 10s or so straight after the race I still thought she was decent value to be honest) but I was trying to point out that since this is an antepost thread most of us talking about her will be on at much bigger and so discounting her as poor value now is a little immaterial.

I also hear you about the Nell Gwynn form. All I can say from my point of view is that maybe we should be evaluating Blue Maiden, Principal Role and Safina from Music Show's run because in my view she ran to her rating at the very least when appearing to need the run. As apose to trying to discredit her for beating what was put infront of her all of whom had 3lbs in hand.

Harry, just to clarify, Atasari was not beaten in a handicap (nursery) off a mark of 88, she was second in a Listed race on her next start after she won a nursery off 82. That effort in Listed company was a considerable step up on her nursery victory, and her Rockfel performance was a further considerable improvement. She was far and away the most progressive juvenile filly last autumn (on either side of the Irish Sea). She may not be good enough to win the Guineas, but she's no forlorn hope on the strength of her Rockfel form.

The post-forfeit Guineas entries are not due to be released until Wednesday lunchtime, but one bookmaker list suggests that these may be the 31 fillies left in the Guineas (but don't hold me to it!):

Areeda, Atasari, Awe Inspiring, Blue Maiden, Devoted To You, Distinctive, Dubai Media, Emulous, Gile Na Greine, Gold Bubbles, Green Dandy, Habaayib, Hibaayeb, Jacqueline Quest, Jira, Joanna, Lady Darshaan, Lady Of The Desert, Misheer, Music Show, Nurture, Pipette, Pollenator, Puff, Queen Of Troy, Rumoush, Sent From Heaven, Seta, Special Duty, Tabassum, You'll Be Mine

Notable defectors (if the above list is accurate) include Termagant, Safina, Plume, Field Day, Aviate, Principal Role, Timepiece, Revered, Muwakaba, Decorative.

Surprise inclusions: Emulous, Blue Maiden and Joanna (all thought more likely to contest other races).

Cruise D

Fair play pal, maybe i have been a little brutal in my analogy of Music Show considering the opposition she is going to face in the Guineas and considering like you say she did give 3lbs to the opposition and she could only do what she did add to which she did it well, don't get me wrong at all she is very likeable. If i had of backed her at 30's ante post i suppose i too would be very content with my position so be lucky pal.

James you are right to pull me up on Atasari but once again i can't see your angle? She is my problem horse when trying to analyse the worth of the Rockfel. Not one horse has franked her form in either her handicap race or listed race, for me to believe she is any more than a low 100 horse.

Fallon has opted to ride Seta, so the 10s won't last long. Any backer will have to deceide whether he's being loyal, or going for what he feels is a better horse ?

We already knew that if Seta was going to run he would be on it. Can't see much of a price change on Seta but you never know. If he'd broken his agreement with Luca and rode Music Show that would have seen a drift for definate.

Ryan Moore will ride Music Show BTW..

Ryan Moore a bigger positive for Music Show imo.

10s aint it imo?

Price will be dependent on going imo, defo place lay on fast conditions...

Atasari (IRE) 3 - J S Bolger
Blue Maiden 3 - P J McBride
Devoted To You (IRE) 3 - A P O'Brien
Distinctive 3 - B Smart
Dubai Media (CAN) 3 - D M Simcock
Emulous 3 - D K Weld
Famous (IRE) 3 - A P O'Brien
Gile Na Greine (IRE) 3 - J S Bolger
Gold Bubbles (USA) 3 - J S Bolger
Green Dandy (IRE) 3 - E J O'Neill
Habaayib 3 - E A L Dunlop
Hibaayeb 3 - Saeed Suroor
Jacqueline Quest (IRE) 3 - H R A Cecil
Jira 3 - C E Brittain
Joanna (IRE) 3 - J C Rouget
Lady Darshaan (IRE) 3 - J S Moore
Lady Of The Desert (USA) 3 - B J Meehan
Misheer 3 - C E Brittain
Music Show (IRE) 3 - M R Channon
Nurture (IRE) 3 - R M Beckett
Pipette 3 - A M Balding
Pollenator (IRE) 3 - R Hannon
Puff (IRE) 3 - R M Beckett
Queen Of Troy (IRE) 3 - A P O'Brien
Rumoush (USA) 3 - M P Tregoning
Sent From Heaven (IRE) 3 - B W Hills
Seta 3 - L M Cumani
Special Duty 3 - Mme C Head-Maarek
Tabassum (IRE) 3 - Sir Michael Stoute
You'll Be Mine (USA) 3 - A P O'Brien

30 remaining in at forfeit stage.

Fallon isn't stupid he said he'd be on Cumani's horse if it turned up, he also said there was nothing between Seta and Music Show but that Seta hadn't filled out yet. He was never gonna upset Cumani by riding Channon's because he could be potentially losing out on a lot of great rides through the summer. If he believes there to be not much between them then this way he isn't upsetting the more powerful stable that is likely to have a lot more good horses for the whole year and not just potentially one or two. It's a bit of a no brainer for me with the whole season in mind.

Just read on the Rumoush thread that Tabassum is out.

Here are the 30 possible runners with their latest Racing Post Rating and a summary of their form and prospects.

Special Duty (117) 2121-3: last years champion juvenile filly; winner of Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin on second start (green, raced keenly, led over a furlong out, ridden out to score by 1½ lengths from top-class colt Siyouni); just edged out close home in the Gr.1 Prix Morny next time (led, driven final furlong, caught last strides); impressive winner of the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (made most, ridden when challenged over a furlong out, ran on well inside final furlong) by nearly 3 lengths from Misheer, Lady Of The Desert and Puff; slightly disappointing beaten odds-on favourite on seasonal reappearance in the Gr.3 Prix Imprudence (led, still in front 1½ furlongs out, quickly headed a furlong out, no extra, beaten a length), but needed the race and may have been found out by combination of soft ground, 7f trip and lack of fitness; promises to stay at least 7f on breeding and well suited by fast ground; hard to beat if able to reproduce last seasons form and last out the mile.

Music Show (114) 1101-1: surprise winner of Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes last autumn (ran on strongly to lead close home, by a neck from Atasari and Tabassum); winner of the Nell Gwyn on reappearance (gave 3lbs and a half length beating to the useful Blue Maiden), having to come right round the field to deliver her challenge; goes particularly well at Newmarket and holds sound each-way claims in the Guineas (especially in view of the fact that her trainer thought she would need the race first time out).

Joanna (113) 12113-1: smart filly, won Gr.3 Prix du Calvados and third in Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac as a juvenile; showed she had trained on well when winning Gr.3 Prix Imprudence on seasonal return (travelled smoothly, ran on well); intended runner in the Poule dEssai des Pouliches and will reportedly miss the Guineas.

Lady Of The Desert (112) 16113-3: smart 6f filly last year, won Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes and Gr.2 Lowther Stakes (in impressive fashion); may have been slightly below her best when third in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (pulled hard, every chance, no extra inside final furlong, beaten 3 lengths); showed trademark turn of foot at Newbury on seasonal return over 7f but failed to get home (possibly needed the race); has prospects of getting a mile, but there are some doubts on that score, and she reportedly goes for the Poule dEssai des Pouliches (will only run in the Guineas if something untoward happens to Music Show).

Hibaayeb (110) 3221-: smart and progressive juvenile, excellent second in Gr.2 May Hill Stakes (every chance, beaten half a length) and won Gr.1 Fillies Mile (short of room, squeezed through to lead entering final furlong, hung left, kept on); purchased by Godolphin during the winter; likely to stay further than a mile (by Singspiel) and may step up to 10f in an Oaks trial rather than run in the Guineas.

Blue Maiden (110) 2125-2: progressive juvenile in first three starts, excellent second in Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (slowly into stride, stayed on, beaten a length); well below form on final juvenile start in Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes (weakened final furlong, beaten nearly 8 lengths) after interrupted preparation (injured foot); excellent reappearance in the Nell Gwyn (short of room, lost place, last with 2f to run, stayed on well, beaten ½ length) and appears to have trained on well; very useful filly, reportedly likely to be better with some give in the ground and may miss Guineas in favour of Irish Guineas.

Misheer (109) 112192-4: smart and consistent sprinting juvenile filly; runner-up in Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes, won Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (ran on strongly, went clear) and runner-up to Special Duty in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (outpaced, hung right, stayed on, no chance with winner); shaped like a sprinter when fourth on seasonal return at Newbury over 7f (pulled hard, led, headed approaching final furlong, weakened close home); looks a doubtful stayer on what we have seen so far and will be hard pressed to reverse form with Special Duty.

Puff (109) 14242-1: smart sprinting juvenile filly; progressed from well beaten fourth in Gr.2 Lowther Stakes (outpaced, kept on, beaten nearly 8 lengths) to excellent fourth in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (held up, headway over 2f out, ran on, not reach leaders, beaten nearly 4 lengths); below par on final juvenile start (second in Listed Bosra Sham Stakes); came out best of the Cheveley Park runners on seasonal return in the Fred Darling at Newbury (held up in touch, headway over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, hard driven to take narrow lead final half furlong, held on well); speedily bred (trainer had doubts about her getting 7f at Newbury), so there must be doubts about her getting a mile in the Guineas.

Atasari (109) 6105122-8: showed nothing special in first five starts last term (won Gowran nursery off a mark of 82) but seemed to improve massively on final two starts (second in Listed race over a mile, then excellent second in Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes); ran poorly on reappearance in the Nell Gwyn (weakened and eased final furlong, beaten 11 lengths, needed the race); she was beaten only a neck by Music Show in the Rockfel and would have a chance if returning to her best form.

Habaayib (108) 31128-2: smart and progressive early season juvenile, won Gr.3 Albany Stakes in good style (well on top at finish); reportedly in season when runner-up in Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (chased winner, well held); over the top when tailed off last in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes; returned to form on reappearance at Newbury on first attempt at 7f (quickened inside final furlong, upsides near finish, outpaced close home); not certain to stay a mile and appears to be owners possible third string.

Lady Darshaan (108) 3132-: smart and progressive juvenile, third to Misheer and Habaayib in the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes (beaten 3½ lengths), later runner-up to Hibaayeb in Gr.1 Fillies Mile (every chance entering final furlong, hit on nose by winning riders whip inside final furlong, carried left, kept on); will need to progress again but has been pleasing her trainer this year.

Tabassum (108) 113-: smart and lightly raced filly, impressive winner (by 4 lengths) of the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes on second start (led 3f out, ridden and hung left from over a furlong out, ran on well); slightly disappointing beaten odds-on favourite on final start in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (broke well, soon led, ridden over a furlong out, headed and no extra final 75 yards, beaten about a length); smallish filly who goes well fresh (final start came too soon for her); reportedly not pleasing on the gallops and may miss the Guineas.

Pollenator (107) 62211-: smart and progressive juvenile, won at fourth attempt in maiden company at Newmarket (ran on well, hung left towards finish, scored by 3¼ lengths), then won Gr.2 May Hill Stakes (slightly hampered when making her run, led last 75 yards) by half a length from Hibaayeb and Seta; goes well on good or faster ground; likely to get further than a mile (by Motivator out of a dam who was placed over 12f) and may be vulnerable to speedier types in the Guineas.

Rumoush (106) 1-1: lightly raced, unbeaten filly with plenty of scope for improvement; half-sister to last years Guineas winner Ghanaati; promising debut win last November in all-weather maiden over a mile (slowly into stride, ridden to challenge over a furlong out, led entering final furlong, ran on well); showed plenty of pace and stamina on seasonal return in Listed Feilden Stakes over 9f (dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, led over a furlong out, edged right, ran on); there are slight doubts about the value of the Feilden form (the runner-up was only rated 83) and the trainer was considering stepping her up (rather than down) in trip, but she clearly goes well at Newmarket and has the scope to develop into a high-class filly.

Youll Be Mine (105) 413-9: shaped like a middle distance performer last year, winning 7f maiden on yielding ground before finishing third in the Gr.1 Fillies Mile (ridden and switched left just inside final furlong, stayed on, beaten 2¼ lengths); very disappointing effort on seasonal return in the Gr.3 Park Express Stakes (ridden 2f out, no impression over a furlong out, weakened final furlong, beaten 11½ lengths); needed the race last time and likely to show considerable improvement next time, but likely to miss the Guineas.

Sent From Heaven (105) 1314-: very useful and consistent filly last year; third in Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (slowly into stride, held up, stayed on, beaten 2½ lengths) before landing Gr.3 Prestige Stakes in blanket finish (made all, stayed on, just held on); fourth in Gr.1 Fillies Mile on final start (led, ridden and headed entering final furlong, squeezed out and snatched up inside final furlong, lost third towards finish, beaten nearly 3 lengths); needs to make significant improvement to reverse Ascot form with Hibaayeb and Lady Darshaan.

Devoted To You (104) 3312-2: progressive juvenile, won Galway maiden by 9 lengths (soft/heavy), then finished runner-up to Lillie Langtry in Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (ridden to lead under a furlong out, soon headed by winner, kept on same pace); very promising reappearance in Gr.3 Park Express Stakes over a mile (kept on well under pressure, just failed, beaten a head); yet to race on a fast surface; plenty of scope for improvement and seems likely to be Ballydoyles main Guineas runner.

Famous (104) 241524-0: best performance to date (by far) when runner-up to Termagant in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes on heavy ground (led, ridden halfway, headed 1½ furlongs out, kept on); beaten a long way on her reappearance in the Gr.3 Park Express Stakes (ridden to challenge 2½ furlongs out, no extra over a furlong out, weakened, beaten 14½ lengths); needed the race last time, but on balance of her form looks outclassed.

Green Dandy (103) 2254-: still a maiden after four starts in France, but a very useful one; best effort when fifth in Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac (pushed along 2f out, kept on steadily, nearest at finish, beaten nearly 4 lengths); shouldnt be good enough, but is arguably the pick of the big outsiders.

Nurture (103) 5232-: still a maiden after four starts, but very progressive form last year; close third in valuable sales race over a mile in Ireland (stayed on well, not quite reach first two), then beaten a nose by Timepiece (the pair clear) in Listed Montrose Stakes (led narrowly over a furlong out, hard driven, headed well inside final furlong); shapes like a middle distance performer and unlikely to find enough improvement over a mile to get competitive in the Guineas.

Seta (102) 13-: highly regarded filly, made big impression on debut when winning Newmarket 7f maiden by 8 lengths, showing plenty of dash; slightly disappointing (beaten odds-on favourite) next time in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes behind Pollenator and Hibaayeb (tracked leaders, headway to lead 2f out, edged right entering final furlong, driven and edged left, headed and no extra final 75 yards, beaten 1½ lengths); showed a good turn of foot at Doncaster and will benefit from being ridden with more restraint in future; still lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement.

Distinctive (102) 3117-6: impressive winner of Gr.3 Firth of Clyde Stakes over 6f on third start (well drawn, finished very strongly), but below form on final juvenile start in Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (raced keenly, weakened final furlong, beaten 10 lengths); better effort on reappearance in the Nell Gwyn (short of room, switched left, stayed on under pressure, beaten nearly 5 lengths); needs to make plenty of improvement to make an impact in the Guineas.

Gold Bubbles (99) 123466-: best effort last year in Gr.2 Debutante Stakes (fourth, beaten 2¼ lengths), but beaten a long way on last two starts (sixth in Gr.2 Lowther, beaten 16 lengths, and sixth in Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, beaten 19 lengths); looks very exposed and well below Guineas standard.

Pipette (98) 13-1: stepped up on winning debut to finish close third in Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury (stayed on at the finish, just failed to take second); won conditions race over a mile at Kempton on seasonal return (quickened to lead approaching final furlong, pushed along, readily); goes well on soft ground, yet to race on a fast surface; shapes as though she will get further than a mile (related to several middle distance performers); reportedly will miss the Guineas unless there is some give in the ground.

Jira (96) 417148435-46: useful early season 6f juvenile, winning Listed Empress Stakes (narrowly), finishing fourth in Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes and later fourth in Listed Dick Poole Stakes; limitations exposed several times, most recently in valuable 10f sales race at Newmarket (beaten 9 lengths); outclassed.

Queen Of Troy (93) 821647-73: well beaten in several Listed/Gr.3 events since winning minor 5f race at Dundalk last year; best effort when fourth to Lady Springbank in Gr.3 CL Weld Park Stakes; open to improvement on good or faster ground (has only raced once on such a surface), but outclassed on all known form.

Jacqueline Quest (91) 217-7: looked a smart prospect on her first two starts as a juvenile (runner-up to the useful Queens Grace in a Newbury maiden, then won Chester maiden easily by 9 lengths), but ran poorly on soft ground on final start in Listed Radley Stakes (weakened final furlong, beaten 13 lengths); well beaten on seasonal return in the Nell Gwyn (led halfway, headed over a furlong out, weakened, beaten 8 lengths); although shes bred to get at least a mile and won over 7f as a juvenile, she has shaped in her two most recent starts like a sprinter, and her form is well short of Guineas standard.

Gile Na Greine (84) 15-2: highly regarded filly, full sister to Cuis Ghaire, won 7f Curragh race (soft/heavy) on debut, but well below form in boggy ground two weeks later in Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes; runner-up on reappearance over a mile at Dundalk (beaten for pace final furlong); has a lot to prove, but likely to improve significantly on fast ground.

Emulous (80) 1-: won Curragh 7f maiden on soft ground (led 1½f out, ridden and strongly pressed, kept on well); the runner-up was beaten again subsequently and the form looks nothing special; very highly regarded filly, reportedly quite likely to be kept for the Irish Guineas.

Dubai Media (77) 74-5: lightly raced maiden, showed promise over 7f at Newmarket recently behind Eldalil (hampered over a furlong out, short of room inside final furlong, ran on), but officially rated only 73 and completely outclassed.

CONCLUSION
At the time of writing, Lady Of The Desert, Joanna and Tabassum are reportedly very doubtful runners. Of Aidan OBriens entries, Youll Be Mine, Famous and Queen Of Troy are thought to be less likely to run than Devoted To You. Blue Maiden and Pipette would prefer some give in the ground and may not run if the ground is riding on the fast side.

An open-looking race, with a number of fillies that showed smart form in the top two-year-old races last year. Special Dutys victory in the Cheveley Park Stakes represents arguably the best form, but her defeat in the Prix Imprudence raised questions about whether she would be ready for this and whether she will get the mile (on breeding she should get the trip). Music Show proved in the Nell Gwyn that she had trained on well, should improve for the run, goes well on the track and must hold sound claims. Atasari was only beaten a neck by Music Show last year and would come into the reckoning if able to recapture her Rockfel form, but she ran poorly on her seasonal return in the Nell Gwyn (needed the race) and has a lot to prove now. There is not much to choose between Pollenator, Hibaayeb, Seta and Lady Darshaan on last years May Hill and Fillies Mile form: Seta is the least experienced of the four and showed a good turn of foot at Doncaster, which could enable her to reverse May Hill placings with the first two (if ridden with more restraint). Misheer shapes like a sprinter, has had her limitations exposed and will be hard pressed to reverse Cheveley Park form with Special Duty. Puff did well to win the Fred Darling at Newbury, but her trainer has doubts about the mile trip, and similar comments apply to Habaayib, narrowly beaten by Puff at Newbury. Devoted To You ran well on her seasonal reappearance (at a time when the OBrien horses were badly needing the run) but will need to find plenty of improvement. Rumoush needs to step up considerably on the bare form of her comfortable Feilden Stakes victory but is open to considerable improvement and should cope fine with the drop back in distance to a mile.

Special Duty is the likeliest winner, provided she stays the mile and finds the necessary 7lbs or so improvement from her Imprudence run: on breeding she should get the trip, but she has so much speed that there must be some doubts about her stamina, although she is reportedly much more relaxed this year and she will probably be held up off the pace to give her the best possible chance of getting the trip. Music Show and Seta are both highly respected and look sure to go well, although there may be some worries for Seta backers if the ground becomes really firm. Rumoush is being thrown in at the deep end and might just find everything happening too quickly for her. Pollenator, Hibaayeb and Lady Darshaan will have their supporters, but all look a bit short of speed to win a Guineas. Puff, Habaayib and Misheer look doubtful stayers. Devoted To You is the most interesting of the Ballydoyle contingent and could run well at a big price.

James P a cracking read

Agree with most things accept, i don't feel they will ride special duty with restraint, she only has one way of running and for me her chances will be far less, if ridden with restraint as she will just pull the riders arms out and lose all chance. If they had this in there minds she would of been held up on her reappearance so for me she will be up in the van and it will be catch me if you can.

James i do respect you as a judge but if you think the filly can win dropped in you are a lesser judge than i thought.

I'm just reporting what the trainer said (admittedly before the Imprudence). The jockey had little option in the Imprudence, with the small field and potential difficulty of trying to make up a few lengths in very soft ground. My guess is that in the Guineas (with the likely strong pace) Pasquier will aim to drop her in just behind the leaders, but if there's not a strong pace or the filly fails to relax he will quickly take her to the front.

Pollenator does still appear to be reasonable value compared with Seta. Everyone backing Seta is hoping that it didn't run it's race when they met last but there is no guarantee of that. Seta's bare form isn't great IMO. She could still be anything but she could also only be as good as her last run.