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Anyone on here fancy Hibaayeb for the Guineas? I know that the Godolphin horses are running OK at the moment and that Hibaayeb is an intended runner, but some of these price changes are a bit drastic: 16 from 25 (L), 16 from 33 (T, VC), 20 from 25 (WH). Bearing in mind that Godolphin have been in two minds whether to run her in the Guineas or step her up in trip in an Oaks trial, I really don't fancy her chances in the Guineas - she surely won't have enough pace.
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jamesp i am not looking for confrontation, especially with you but, i can't get my head round, why a maiden winner runs below it's best when just getting touched off in a group 2, it surely must have improved a bundle from its' first run. just asking. cheers.
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i see the filly Evading Tempette, who just touched off Special Duty is entered for the Coronation Stakes at Ascot, it must be highly thought of. cheers.
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Does that mean all the other 2 year olds Seta raced against had finished growing then?
I'm not a fan of horses that are tipped to reverse form for whatever reason when not in handicaps and their respective weights don't play a part. I don't like it cos I'm not a fan of guessing. For the most part I like to back the horse that won last time out because they tend to be better value and just as often as the previous form is reversed the previous form is franked. A recent example of this would be Khyber Kim and Zaynar. I'd love to see some stats on this but it'd be really hard to track, in my experience I've found that sticking with the form/value works quite well in these situations. |
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I'm having **ney Rebel' feelings about Lady Darshaan
Improved with each run at 2 and price kept high by unfashionable trainer. Placed at Group 1 level (Some say unlucky not to win) over a mile. She may lack the turn of foot or touch of class to win this but 33s is a nice price I reckon. (I may well top up on course if the price holds :) ) **ney Rebel was available at the same price in the week before the race and went off @ 25s I'm hoping for a similar result :) |
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Just like to add that reading the above back that it looks somewhat sarcastic/pompous. Not looking for an arguement James you are an excellent poster and have some really interesting angles on this race. Also you deserve real credit for getting on Special Duty so early as you did, I wish I'd picked your threads up earlier.
Just trying to express my opinion. ;) |
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Your worries are unfounded, cruise - it's good when people have different points of view, that's what makes the sport so interesting. Going back to my earlier post where I voiced the opinion that Seta 'ran below her best', what I mean to say is that the filly is almost certainly capable of significantly better than her finishing position suggests. Like you, I am generally sceptical when people claim that this horse or that horse should reverse placings, but in this particular case both Luca Cumani and Kieren Fallon are adamant that we did not see the best of Seta in the May Hill. Fallon claims that the filly lost her action once she had cruised into the lead and he asked her to go away from the others. One can never be certain about these things, but I will be surprised if Seta does not turn out to be significantly better than Pollenator and Hibaayeb over a mile (although the Guineas will probably be the only time they will race against each other over the trip this year).
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Can you recall Setas action from her debut?
I thought she looked awkward/ungainly despite romping home seemed to have a leg in suffolk & another in cambridgeshire. Whether that was just pure inexperience/greeness im not usre but certainly looked strange. Just with Cumani saying shes going to be better @ 4 just wondering whether shes had the experience needed? |
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I though last season that Seta would be the best filly over a mile for 2010. If she has strengthened up and matured, she will be a right proper horse.
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Out of the fillies over here that is. I'm still hopeful on special Duty.
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Devoted To You
Nice form boost in Navan listed race today. |
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Tabassum is the in or out please?
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It looks like it's going to be a fairly dry week although there has been some surprise rain today in East Anglia - don't know if it has hit Newmarket but bucketing down where I am right now, close to Cambridge.
If the Rowley Mile is quick, would Seta want that, being a Pivotal filly? Merely asking the question. I recall how ill as ease Rainbow View was last year... |
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Hopefully it has rained there..which will stop him from watering(some hope).
If the forecast is right, Seta will be longer on the day... LMC says she won't act on fast ground(as does her May Hill effort)... But I'm not sure she 's that good anyway...Folk getting carried away with her connections imo. |
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I read that the clerk at HQ had already started watering! I am dubious that he will let the Guineas start on fast ground, - expect good, or softer if it rains on watered ground.
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Sir 25 Apr 17:39
Tabassum is the in or out please? Well it was 27 this morning and is now 16 so I would presume it is in. From the betting I would say it's Hills chosen mount though I could be wrong. |
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Can't see it drifting like that for no reason. Non runner in my book.
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according to stoute it was highly unlikeky to be a runner
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on another thread, somebody mentioned that Makfi had a chance in the 2000 guineas, this horse did a slightly slower time than Special Duty in their respective trials. good going, ever hopeful. cheers.
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bound to be good ground wont be rock hard like last yr had a good shower 2day some forecast in the week plus mr prossar watering. I feel Seta will win the guineas if she is able to stay up with the strong early pace bound to come special duty. Fallon needs to take the sting out of SD speed track the strong pace kick on 2 n a half furlongs out building momentum into the dip will take a good 1 to beat her if this happens. SD wont be able to maintain the constant speed she shows over a stiff mile but i see her class giving her 2nd place at least
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Tabassum is out,not declared today at five day stage
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:( :( ffs
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5122-8 Atasari (IRE) 3 9-0 J S Bolger
2125-2 Blue Maiden 3 9-0 P J McBride 3312-2 Devoted To You (IRE) 3 9-0 A P O'Brien 3110-6 Distinctive 3 9-0 B Smart 41524-0 Famous (IRE) 3 9-0 A P O'Brien 15-2 Gile Na Greine (IRE) 3 9-0 J S Bolger 123466- Gold Bubbles (USA) 3 9-0 J S Bolger 31120-2 Habaayib 9-0 E A L Dunlop 3221- Hibaayeb 3 9-0 Saeed Suroor 210-0 Jacqueline Quest (IRE) 3 9-0 H R A Cecil 0435-46 Jira 3 9-0 C E Brittain 3132- Lady Darshaan (IRE) 3 9-0 J S Moore 12102-4 Misheer 3 9-0 C E Brittain 1101-1 Music Show (IRE) 3 9-0 M R Channon 5232- Nurture (IRE) 3 9-0 R M Beckett 13-1 Pipette 3 9-0 A M Balding 62211- Pollenator (IRE) 3 9-0 R Hannon 14242-1 Puff (IRE) 3 9-0 R M Beckett 1-1 Rumoush (USA) 3 9-0 M P Tregoning 1314- Sent From Heaven (IRE) 3 9-0 B W Hills 13- Seta 3 9-0 L M Cumani 2121-3 Special Duty 3 9-0 Mme C Head-Maarek 413-0 You'll Be Mine (USA) 3 9-0 A P O'Brien |
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I reckon we'll probably have about 16 runners. I expect Aidan O'Brien will only run one or two, Jim Bolger will probably only run one, Pipette and Blue Maiden won't run unless there is some ease in the ground.
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Does Head- Maarek's form with first time out runners this year - 0 winners in last 3 weeks - suggest Special Duty actually ran really well in a tough race on bad ground or that her horses are behind and she will not be ready. My view is the fome.
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"former"
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Ran an excellent gallop at the weekend according to Lord G
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Special Duty, the 7-2 favoruite with the sponsors for the StanJames.com 1000 Guineas, was today reported to be bang on target for Sunday's fillies' classic.
The filly has already tasted success at Newmarket, having stormed to an impressive defeat of Misheer in the Group One Electrolux Cheveley Park Stakes in October. She finished third on her seasonal reappearance at Maisons-Laffitte on April 8 but her trainer Criquette Head-Maarek is no stranger to 1000 Guineas success, having saddled Ma Biche (1983), Ravinella (1988) and Hatoof (1992) to victory. Lord Grimthorpe, racing manager to Special Dutys owner Khalid Abdulla, said today: |
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if you look at Maarek-Heads runners this season nearly all of them have been 40/1 shots or bigger, not really expected to win, are they. cheers.
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So who is actually going next Sunday? Me and the Mrs are going Premier enclosure with a seat for the first and last time for this. I'm not sure we'll fit in though ;).
I may still venture over to place a few bets with Barry Dennis purely cos I am so up with him at Newmarket, although that's largely due to Music Show in the Rockfel at 33s (a good omen to back with him again IMO). I have never been more excited for a race meeting before because of an antepost bet. I know it's an open race but I feel stupidly confident. Just hope they all get there safe and sound now. |
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"The ground is a big worry for me. If it doesn't rain by the end of the week I could be in trouble"
K Fallon |
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I will be there, only sunday this year and i definitely wont bet with Mr D (another story best not mentioned), love the guineas meeting, shame about having to dodge the drunks though. Hoping for a very SPECIAL result ;)
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lol to be honest I usually don't bet with him cos you normally have to queue, it's just when I have I've done alright. Also at times the value is a little bit further down going away from the prem enclosure. Can't wait to get there again though, I'm quite liking the rest of the card too. I think Jonny Mudball looks a progressive type at what should be a good price in the race after the guineas. Can't wait!
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8 of the last 20 1000 winners won a Gr1 as 2yo's. 3 were placed.
5 others won a Gr2. Of the 4 others Virginia Water won a Gr3 trial in Ireland just before the 1000, Wince won the Fred Darling.Ameerat easily beat Seyadah in her maiden then was snatched up on soft ground behind her in the Rockfel Gr2.That leaves Ghanaati who didn't run until Sept as a 2yo then won her maiden in october. Came into the race due to probable hold ups as a dark horse which is very unusual for the winner of this race.Conclusion.....Special Duty is the Gr 1 filly, is bred to get a mile on both sides. Criquette,s loser of this race Pas de Reponse was by Danzig who throws up a high proportion of sprinters.The dangers are Music show who won the Rockfel and the Nell Gwynn but do Channon's horses always run to form? Pollenator the May Hill winner and Hibaayeb the Fillies Mile winner. The latter 2 look as though a mile might be a little quick for them as 3yo's. Seta is a talking horse and Rumoush does't look good enough only winning an average Listed race. |
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so u dont share the stamina doubts about special duty?
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sire hennessy ran over a mile 1. dam was by distant view out of a nureyev mare so i guess you could say a mile should be ideal. certainly way she was running on at the end of the cheveley park was encouraging, could be another natagora, helpful to be up there out of trouble in the guineas with so many inexperienced fillies.
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Thats right, Hennessey sired Johannesberg,Hernry hughes,Grand Armeeand and Sunrise Bachus who all won at 8 or 9 furlongs as 2yo's.
Her dam by Distant View begat Observatory who beat Giants causeway over a mile at 3, other 2yo mile winners Sightseek, Distant way, and Summer View, the list goes on and on. |
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trial, that's what i like to hear, and with confidence, i may sleep a little better tonight, cheers.
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From memory at least half of those horses didn't win as a 3 year old though did they? ;)
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Winner at Chantilly today for Head Maarek with Skyteam second time out. Ran at same meeting as Special Duty on April 8th. Horses needing a run ? Right week to start coming into a bit of form.
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