push - for me SD has still to prove she stays a mile.

It's hard to know what to make of Atasari's performance in the Nell Gwyn. She was well fancied and well backed, she raced prominently but simply faded right out in the final furlong (eased when all chance had gone). On the face of it, this was a very disappointing effort, but Bolger's horses aren't really firing yet and she should improve a lot for the run. No news on future plans for this filly, but it wouldn't surprise me if she were to go for the Newmarket Guineas. She was only just touched off by Music Show in the Rockfel and has already won over a mile, so the trip is not an issue.

Beyond Desire will not be running in the Guineas, according to trainer Michael Jarvis (on ATR this week). She will be kept to sprint races this season.

cruise d, I'm with you completely! I said in the Nell Gwyn thread (before the race!) that Music Show was my main play for the guineas but I'd also backed Atasari and Tabassum because I was counting on the Rockfel form.
Now, after the race, Music Show has better 3yo and 7f form than Special Duty yet is still double the price. I'm not saying Special Duty can't win, just that I'm surprised at the difference in their odds at this stage.

Pollenator news anyone?

I am biased too but I have to say that Arcano didn't exactly pay a huge compliment to Special Duty today. I know it needed a run but they will all need pipe openers at this stage if they are serious contenders for the Guineas in a few weeks. There is no way they will be fully tuned up but at the same time it's not that far away so they can't be left too far away if they are to be winning the Guineas. Special Duty looks a class horse but there are far too many doubts for me. It may not be that bold a prediction now but I think Music Show could well start favourite for the race on the day now.

It's all about opinions but I think the Rockfell and Nell Gwynn form will prove to be the best form guide for this years Guineas. I certainly think the Neww Gwynn looked a better trail for horses wanting to run over a mile than the Newbury race today did. I just hope it's Music Show that proves this right and not something else like Tabassum or Principal Role.

I'm also gutted. I backed Dick Turpin pretty big for me last October and it let me down (probably a race to far in a short space of time back then) so I decided to leave it alone today. Oh well.

i can't believe some punters analysis of the Greenham race with regards to Special Duty, everyone so far makes a link with Arcanos' run, but noone has mentioned the good run of Canford Cliffs, which in relation to Special Duty made, imo, the filly look special indeed, to beat it over 6 furs. must have been exceptional. cheers.

what is the plans of connections of the 2nd in fred darling, staying on strongly imo

I have been taking a closer look at the Nell Gwyn form and believe that Music Show's performance has probably been overrated. Let me make it clear that I'm not out to knock Mick Channon's filly, who ran well on her comeback (especially for a filly that was expected to need the race, though to be honest I suspect that she was more forward than the trainer believed). My immediate reaction was to take the Racing Post Ratings for the race at face value (Music Show was given a rating of 114), but the form has a distinctly shaky look to it, as I hope to explain.

The first observation to make is that the fillies that finished out of the first six places all weakened and failed to get home. Jacqueline Quest (7th) led at halfway, was headed over a furlong out and weakened inside the final furlong: she appeared not to stay and/or needed the run. Atasari (8th) raced prominently, was ridden and hung right over a furlong out, weakened inside the final furlong and was eased: she clearly ran way below form and must have needed the race. Dyna Waltz (9th) chased the leaders, was ridden over 2f out but soon weakened: like Atasari, she ran well below form and must have needed the race (if she had been forward enough she should have been staying on at the finish). Queen's Grace (10th) raced prominently and dropped right away: she may have needed the race but shapes like a sprinter. Srda (11th) dropped right away and clearly failed to give her running. The necessary conclusion to draw from this observation is that the form must be judged on the performances of the first six home.

Blue Maiden (2nd, beaten half a length) was officially rated 102 going into the race. She had looked a progressive filly last summer when finishing an excellent second to Long Lashes in the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes, beaten just a length, clear of some useful fillies such as Sent From Heaven and Snow Fairy. But she ran some way below form on her final start behind Tabassum in the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes (beaten nearly 8 lengths), where she needed the run after an interrupted preparation (with a foot problem). Much has been made of the fact that Music Show had to come all the way round the field to get a clear run in the Nell Gwyn, but to my eyes Blue Maiden looked very unlucky: she didn't get a clear run, lost her place and was stone last over two furlongs out, then made headway over a furlong out (by which time Music Show had already taken the lead) and ran on well. Music Show (officially rated 110 for her Rockfel win) had 5lbs in hand of Blue Maiden on two-year-old ratings (allowing for Music Show's penalty) and their relative finishing positions suggest that they ran to within a pound of those official ratings. But that doesn't take into account the fact that Music Show looked in need of the run or the fact that Blue Maiden looked an unlucky loser on the day. It makes more sense to conclude that both fillies ran a little way below their best juvenile form.

Principal Role (3rd), Safina (4th) and Hafawa (5th) were all running in a Group race for the first time and were therefore all likely to step up on their maiden and conditions race form. There is no doubt that Principal Role and Safina in particular look smart prospects, but it is also true to say that their Nell Gwyn performances were well in advance of anything they had achieved before, so they are not a terribly helpful guide to the value of the form. The same comment broadly applies to Hafawa (beaten 4½ lengths in fifth): she was officially rated 90 going into the Nell Gwyn (on the basis of her four-length win over Dawnbreak at Leicester last October in what was, to all intents and purposes, a three-runner race).

It would be unwise to read too much into the running of Distinctive (6th). Last year she won the Gr.3 Firth of Clyde Stakes at Ayr over 6f in very good style, but the form of that race has tended to be disregarded because of the very pronounced draw bias. She was then beaten 10 lengths by Music Show in the Rockfel, where she raced too keenly and weakened inside the final furlong: she seemed not to get the 7f trip on that occasion, but it is quite likely that she was 'over the top' for the season. She seemed to stay the 7f trip in the Nell Gwyn but suffered traffic problems and should have finished a bit closer. She had a similar official rating to Blue Maiden going into the Nell Gwyn but may not have been quite so forward.

Overall, the Nell Gwyn has a very messy look to it and the form should be treated with considerable caution. One cannot conclude, on the basis of the bare form alone, that Music Show has progressed from two to three. She does appear to have progressed physically and Mick Channon is sure that she will improve a lot for the run, so she must have a good chance in the Guineas. But I wouldn't get carried away with that Nell Gwyn performance. Blue Maiden looked an unlucky loser and there's not much to choose between a number of useful, but not outstanding fillies. Long Lashes, for example, has been more or less written off following two poor performances (in the Moyglare Stud Stakes on heavy ground and the Fillies' Mile which probably came too soon for her), but her victory in the Sweet Solera was a very good performance and if she can be brought back to that sort of form, with normal improvement from two to three, she would have a definite chance in the Guineas in an open-looking year.

Special Duty still has the best form going into the Guineas - the only doubt about her is whether she will get the mile, but it would be foolish to conclude from her comeback performance in the Prix Imprudence that she is just a sprinter. She outstayed the 6f fillies in the Cheveley Park Stakes and it wasn't the 7f trip that got her beaten in the Imprudence. She's the one filliy that could still be well ahead of the others, but otherwise it's an exceptionally open-looking race.

I have analysed the Nell Gwyn as objectively as possible and I honestly don't think I'm leading myself to form conclusions that suit my antepost bets. I have looked at the race with a sceptical eye because that's the way I always approach analysis of form. The point I'm making is that the trials (the Imprudence, the Nell Gwyn, the Fred Darling and the Irish trials) have all been muddling affairs and it's very difficult to draw firm conclusions from any of them. Some fillies ran well (i.e. either won narrowly or were narrowly beaten), others ran way below expectations and simply needed a run. It's anyone's guess how the form of the trial races will pan out in the Guineas itself. My initial reaction to the Nell Gwyn was to get quite excited about Music Show's chance in the Guineas, but I have watched the race several more times and feel that the performance has been a little overrated. The way the race turned out, she did not need to improve on her juvenile form to win. She still has a good solid chance in the Guineas, but there are so many fillies within a few pounds of each other that she doesn't scream 'value' at around 6/1-7/1. Special Duty did not enhance her claims in the Imprudence, but she did enough (in being beaten a length on unsuitably soft ground after a far from ideal preparation) to maintain her position as favourite, based on last year's form.

Fair enough, but I wouldn't have expected Music Show to finish her race in the way she did if she had badly needed the race. She was probably fit enough to do herself justice, whereas some of the also-rans clearly were not. I do think the Nell Gwyn form is a bit shaky, for the reasons already given. Only six fillies appeared to give their running and I thought the runner-up was unlucky.

Any news on whether Field Day is an intended runner or not?

1,000 Guineas route for Feilden winner Rumoush

BY DAVID LAWRENCE 1:33PM 19 APR 2010

RUMOUSH, impressivewinner of last Wednesday's Feilden Stakes at Newmarket, looks all set to tackle the StanJames.com 1,000 Guineas on May 2.

Hamdan Al Maktoum's filly, trained by Marcus Tregoning, won last week's 1m1f Listed event by two and a half lengths and connections are keen to let her take her chance despite the drop back in trip.

The owner's racing manager, Angus Gold, said on Monday: "Sheikh Hamdan would like Rumoush to have a crack at the Guineas and, all being well, that appears to be the plan.

"There's a slight doubt about her staying the full Oaks distance and, after her performance at Newmarket last week, she deserves to take her chance."

Rumoush is 20-1 with the sponsor for the Newmarket fillies' Classic.

Stiff task to drop back a furlong and win a Classic?

Can't remember any?

Safina and Electric Feel to swerve 1,000 Guineas

BY DAVID LAWRENCE 4:23PM 19 APR 2010

NEITHER Safina, an unlucky fourth in last Wednesday's Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket, nor the Marco Botti-trained Electric Feel will run in the 1,000 Guineas on May 2.

The Cheveley Park Stud-owned Safina was a 22-1 chance for the Guineas with sponsor Stan James, but is to be aimed at a 1m maiden before being trained with a crack at Royal Ascot's Coronation Stakes in mind.

Chris Richardson, managing director at the stud, said on Monday: "She might have been third with a clearer run in the Nell Gwyn, but she was still very green and the plan will be to find her a maiden before taking in something a little more grand.

"If all goes well and she wins next time out, then we could fit in another run at a higher grade before, hopefully, going to Royal Ascot."

Sir MichaelStoute, Safina's trainer, has three other potential runners in the 1,000 Guineas, including 12-1 chance Tabassum.

Electric Feel, successful in last year's Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury, is also being trained with Royal Ascot in mind, her trainer revealed on Monday.

Botti had planned to start her off inlast Wednesday's Nell Gwyn Stakes, but the filly suffered a setback a week earlier and will not be heading for the 1,000 Guineas, for which she was 40-1 with the sponsor.

Botti said: "She has not got a serious injury, but the Guineas will come too soon for her.

"She slipped on a road and scraped her knees, so had to miss the Nell Gwyn and will need a little time before going back into fast work.

"We're hoping to aim for Royal Ascot with a prep-race beforehand, but it's too early to say where that might be."

The only intended runners I know of at this stage are:
Special Duty, Music Show, Seta, Tabassum, Misheer(?), Pollenator, Rumoush, Puff, Sent From Heaven, Pipette (but only if there is cut in the ground), Lady Darshaan, Devoted To You, and possibly one or more of the Godolphin entries (Long Lashes, Hibaayeb and Siyaadah).

The following are reportedly doubtful: Safina, Lady Of The Desert, Termagant, Emulous, Field Day, Plume, Timepiece, You'll Be Mine, Famous, Decorative, Beyond Desire, Cabaret, Joanna.

Charlie McBride seems to be favouring the Irish Guineas for Blue Maiden. It's also supposed to be the favoured target for Termagant and Emulous, though neither has been ruled out of the 1000 (as far as I know).

Any news on Eolith?

Sent From Heaven had a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting (on the same day as Tabassum) and the Hills team seemed to be quite happy with the way she went. Trainer Barry Hills said: "I'm pleased with her, but she was just going through the motions and you couldn't read too much into that - one is a mile filly, one is a mile-and-a-half filly [galloping companion Bebopalula]." I assume that she's going for the Guineas - the gallop was talked about in those terms by the hacks, and it was the same preparation Ghanaati was given last year. But, to be honest, Barry is being typically cagey and I can't find a quote confirming that the filly is definitely being aimed at the Guineas.

I got bits and pieces at 180, 130, 120, 100 and down. Widely available at 50/1 with the bookmakers. I don't think they rate her in the same league as Ghanaati, but you never know.

Ignore Termagant at your peril. (Everybody is assuming she won't turn up.)

A good, well-balanced summary by HC. Just about the only thing I would disagree on is the rating of Atasari, who improved dramatically in the autumn and is almost certainly much better than Listed class. Her performance in the Nell Gwyn has to be written off, as she clearly didn't give her running. The Rockfel form looks very solid (the first three pulled well clear of the others), even allowing for the likelihood that Tabassum may not have been at her best. I agree that the Nell Gwyn has been overrated by the Racing Post (Music Show's rating of 114 is several pounds too high in my opinion).

aft, do you have any information about running plans for Termagant? I know that she has not been ruled out of the 1000 Guineas, but there has been no news recently. The general assumption seems to be that she will miss the Guineas in favour of the Irish Guineas.