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Devoted To You ran well today, just touched off (the pair clear) by a useful mare from the in-form Stack yard. Should improve considerably for that run, but she'll need to if she's going to be competitive in the Guineas. Would need another race beforehand (probably the Leopardstown trial), but more than likely she'll be stepped up in trip.
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Entries for the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas trial (7f) on Sunday include six Newmarket entries (three each for Jim Bolger and Aidan O'Brien): Atasari, Gile Na Greine and Gold Bubbles (Bolger), Famous, Queen Of Troy and You'll Be Mine (O'Brien). O'Brien has a great record in this race, having won it five times in the last 10 years, including with subsequent Guineas winner Virginia Waters (and having also saddled Halfway To Heaven and Imagine to be placed in it). Bolger has won it only once in the last 10 years (with Maoineach last year). Atasari has the best form (close second in last season's Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes), a few pounds clear of Mastercraftsman's sister Famous (second to Termagant in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes and fourth to Shakespearean in a valuable sales race) and You'll Be Mine (third in the Gr.1 Fillies Mile, shaping as though she would need further than a mile this year). Gile Na Greine is a well regarded filly but she flopped when thrown in at the deep end on her second start last year (behind Termagant and Famous). One or two of the other fillies (without the Newmarket entry) have decent form too, but this looks a good opportunity for Atasari to stake her Guineas claim.
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Bolger's horses are always worth following this time of year imo
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superb reading thank you all .
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I was at Newmarket the day Music Show won the Rockfell and I have to say I was impressed with her that day. I was thinking about backing her in the morning and decided not to. But I watched them all run down past the stand to post and I was really impressed. She looked head and shoulders above the rest as she went down so I had a few quid on her to win at 33s just before the off. I think there is real value in backing her for the 1000 at the current price. That was a top class race she won and the way she won it suggested that at a mile she'd win it even more easily.
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I'm gonna plum for an ew shot in this - Music Show. 3/4 so far, her only defeat was when drawn in stall 10 of 13 at Ayr - Unless you are drawn in 1-3 over the 6f up there you may as well stay at home! (Stall 3 won, with Stall 1 was 3rd). Jamesp has already covered her overall form well, above.
Music Show ew @20/1. |
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There was an interview with Kieren Fallon in The Sun a few Saturday's ago, where he raved about Music Show.
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re: Music Show. I agree that there may be a bit of each-way value in this filly at around 20/1-25/1. The Rockfel form looks solid and she looks a better bet than Tabassum to train on and get the mile. I have backed her for the Guineas (by way of insurance) at 33s. But I can't quite believe that Noverre has what it takes to produce an English classic winner. Noverre's best filly to date was Miss Lucifer, who won the Gr.2 Challenge Stakes for Barry Hills. On the plus side, he has produced a French classic winner (last year's Prix du Jockey Club winner Le Havre, who was also runner-up to Silver Frost in the French Guineas), so who knows...
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Three of Aidan O'Brien's four runners in this Sunday's 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown hold the Newmarket entry: Famous, Queen Of Troy and You'll Be Mine. Punters are still in the dark about which one will deputise for Lillie Langtry in the Guineas: Devoted To You ran well on her comeback last Sunday, and Cabaret is still waiting in the wings.
Richard Hannon is pleased with the progress made by Plume and it would be no surprise to see her line up for the Fred Darling at Newbury, but the stable also has Pollenator pencilled in for the Guineas (if she shows enough speed in her work). Meanwhile, and perhaps more significantly, Criquette Head-Maarek issued a very positive and upbeat progress report on Special Duty earlier this week. The filly worked really well at Chantilly and appears to have strengthened and filled out over the winter. |
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ive done special duty 3/1 and st nicholas abbey 2/1 singled and doubled ,iknow there obvious contenders for 1000 & 2000 guineas but they have both been impressive hopefully they continue good form this year . keep up the good work james great reading .
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There are 15 entries for the Prix Imprudence on 8 April:
1. Evading Tempete (F. ROHAUT) 31-9221 2. Special Duty (MME C. HEAD-MAAREK) 2121- 3. Joanna (JC. ROUGET) 12113- 4. Kartica (P. DEMERCASTEL) 714- 5. Ascot Glory (S. WATTEL) 4137514212-7 6. American Nizzy (Y.DE NICOLAY) 123465- 7. Okapina (MLLE SV. TARROU) 01222-3 8. Blagueuse (E. LELLOUCHE) 3122- 9. Lixirova (D. SMAGA) 1313661- 10. Liliside (F. ROHAUT) 9212-11 11. Dolled Up (R.** 23113423- 12. Wonderfilly (P. DEMERCASTEL) 3155164- 13. Irish Cat (R.** 133332551343274- 14. Rue De La Victoire (JC. ROUGET) 34-11 15. Saying (F. HEAD) 121- Special Duty and Joanna (3rd in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac) stand out on form and are both entered for the 1000 Guineas. Useful opposition in the form of Dolled Up (winner of the Gr.3 Prix du Bois, close-up 4th in the Gr.1 Prix Morny and placed in two other Group races), Lixirova (winner of the Gr.3 Prix Miesque), Saying (lightly-raced winner of the Listed Prix Herod) and Evading Tempete (comfortable winner of a Listed race at Deauville on 18 March). Liliside and Rue De La Victoire have won two races each this year. Some of the other entries, although seemingly exposed, have some useful form to their names, eg Irish Cat (3rd in the Gr.3 Prix Eclipse) and American Nizzy (6th in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac). It could turn out to be a good quality renewal, but Special Duty should win this comfortably if she is to maintain her position at the head of the Guineas betting. Main danger is fellow Guineas entry Joanna (already a Gr.3 winner over this 7f trip). |
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Aidan O'Brien's comments on his three Guineas entries running at Leopardstown tomorrow:
"Famous is very well, she showed that she can handle soft ground when she ran very well in the Moyglare last year, she is also just ready to start back. You'll Be Mine is in good form but we are very worried about the ground with her. She is just ready to start but if Leopardstown get any more rain she might be withdrawn. Queen Of Troy is in good form also, she won't be mad about the ground either, but we would like to get a run into her." |
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I'm on Lady Darshaan. She is a half sister to Total Gallery also trained by Stan Moore, and who beat Fleeting Spirit in Abbaye. She is reported to have had a setback in training, but so did nearly every other horse in the early part of the year. Likely to head straight to the race without a prep. Unlucky in Ascot Mile race where she still beat You'll Be Mine fair and square. Best race was behind Misheer at Newmarket in July.-Misheer pulled too hard behind Special Duty to do herself justice, and stamina doubt for mile. So Lady Darshaan has the speed, experience on track, stamina, reasonable form with principle contenders, likely to improve as she matures and is trainer's only entry. 40/1 looks value. I have much bigger on here.
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Stan moore on LD :
"She's the best filly I've trained and will go for the One Thousand Guineas first time out and she'll be entered for the Irish Guineas. She's very clean-winded and I'll probably give her a racecourse gallop or take her over to Richard Hannons's - he's very good to me. It's possible that a mile and a quarter will be her best trip so the Pretty Polly comes into the picture. I think it would have been a short head either way when she was hit over the head in the Fillies Mile. She's seriously good." |
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Any news on Termagant?
Is she likely to come over for the English 1000 guineas or wait for their version? |
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Prendergast admits the stanjames.com 1000 Guineas is likely to come too soon for Termagant, with the Irish equivalent her more likely starting point.
The three-year-old, one of the leading fancies for the Newmarket Classic, was an impressive winner on her debut at Leopardstown and followed up in the Group One Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh. "She is entered at Newmarket, but we've had a very hard winter and she hasn't come in her coat as yet," Prendergast told At The Races. "She's in good shape. I would have hoped she would have started to come in her coat by now, but she hasn't at all. "She'll now go straight for one of the Guineas and it will more than likely be the Irish Guineas as that would give us another three weeks. "I think ideally she wants good to firm ground, but she has raced on heavy ground as well." |
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Interesting thread jamessp. Unlike last year, the 2010 Guineas looks like producing a more conventional field, and I might even return to the forum one last time to offer my foaling-date predictions....
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Cheers Grizly. Will hold my bet then.
Misheer the only other interesting one for me. |
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SPECIAL DUTY, 11-4 favourite with the sponsors to win the StanJames.com 1,000 Guineas on May 2, pleased connections with her final gallop before she runs in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence, a trial for the Newmarket Classic, on April 8.
RELATED LINKS The Criquette Head-Maarek-trained filly took her position at the head of the ante-post market for the 1,000 Guineas when winning the Group 1 Electrolux Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket in October and worked over 7f under Stephane Pasquier at Chantilly on Monday. |
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Market moves in the last month.
Two fillies at or near the head of the market have been shortened across the board: Special Duty 5/2 from 7/2 (C, WH, L, VC), 5/2 from 3 (T), 11/4 from 7/2 (PP, SJ) Seta 10 from 16 (C), 12 from 14 (VC, SJ), 14 from 16 (WH, L, PP) There has been some minor adjustment of prices on the following: Lady Of The Desert 16 from 20 (SJ), Cabaret 20 from 25 (SJ), Music Show 14 from 16 (L), Tabassum 16 from 20 (C, SJ), Field Day 20 from 25 (C, T), 25 from 33 (SJ). The main drifter has been Termagant 16 from 14 (C), 20 from 16 (VC), 22 from 20 (SJ). A few others have been pushed out by one or two firms: Misheer 25 from 20 (SJ), Pollenator 25 from 20 (SJ), Lady Darshaan 40 from 25 (SJ), Hibaayeb 40 from 20 (SJ), Long Lashes 50 from 25 (SJ), You'll Be Mine 33 from 20 (T), Emulous 20 from 16 (L), Revered 25 from 20 (SJ), Muwakaba 33 from 25 (SJ). Of the outsiders, there has been some interest in Plume (cut from 40 to 25 and 33 in places) and Devoted To You (following her promising reappearance effort at the Curragh). |
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thedoctor, your comments would be welcome (either here or on a separate thread). Ghanaati's victory last year broke virtually all the key long-term trends for the race, but I'm more than hopeful that normal service will be resumed this year.
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Hi James, what do you think to Music Show's chances. I remember reading somewhere that at the Ayr gold cup meeting they had watered one side to try and reduce the draw bias and even though all the jockeys should have known this some of them still went to that side. I know Mick Channon has never quite turned his 2yo's old into classic winners but he was unlucky with Nahoodh.
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jamesp 26 Mar 16:14
re: Music Show. I agree that there may be a bit of each-way value in this filly at around 20/1-25/1. The Rockfel form looks solid and she looks a better bet than Tabassum to train on and get the mile. I have backed her for the Guineas (by way of insurance) at 33s. But I can't quite believe that Noverre has what it takes to produce an English classic winner. Noverre's best filly to date was Miss Lucifer, who won the Gr.2 Challenge Stakes for Barry Hills. On the plus side, he has produced a French classic winner (last year's Prix du Jockey Club winner Le Havre, who was also runner-up to Silver Frost in the French Guineas), so who knows... |
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Thanks allstar
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In a discussion on Racing Post TV yesterday James Pyman and Bruce Jackson were both very keen on Special Duty in the 1,000 Guineas (well, it's hard not to be!), but Bruce Jackson also threw in a speculative each-way alternative to the favourite in the shape of Eolith, whose debut maiden win worked out really well last year (she narrowly beat Pollenator, with Hibaayeb back in third). Eolith followed up in a conditions race at Kempton, but that form is nothing special and I think she will struggle in the Guineas, lacking both the class and the speed to make an impact. She's stoutly bred on the dam's side and may need further than a mile this year.
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Music Show could head straight to 1,000 Guineas
BY JAMES BURN 8:38AM 31 MAR 2010 THE Mick Channon-trained Music Show, Ladbrokes's 14-1 third favourite for the StanJames.com 1,000 Guineas, could head straight to Newmarket on May 2 without a prep race. Music Show, who, like Channon's stable star Youmzain, is owned by Jaber Abdullah, earned her place in the 1,000 Guineas market with victory in the Group 2 Lotus Evora Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket in October and Channon will confirm plans in the coming weeks. Quoted on his website, Channon said: "Music Show worked first lot [on Tuesday] and we'll see what the next couple of weeks brings before laying down a definite plan. "We're aiming her at the Guineas and, though there's a possibility she could run in the Nell Gwyn [on April 14] or the Fred Darling [on April 17], there's a fair chance she could go straight there." Music Show, a daughter of 2001 Sussex Stakes winner Noverre, won three of her four starts last season. |
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Anyone concerned about whether Special Duty will train on? Hennessy was a 2yo himself and lots of his progeny excelled as juveniles. The Storm Cat line has always been worth opposing at Newmarket in May, bar Giant's Causeway who differs from other sons of SC.
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The Hennessy/Storm Cat line is a slight concern, but Special Duty is from an excellent female line that seems to thrive with racing. Criquette Head-Maarek is delighted with how well the filly has done over the winter - she has strengthened and filled out, and she is working really nicely at Chantilly, so there are no indications that she hasn't trained on really well. We'll have a better idea after the Prix Imprudence.
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When is the impudence James? Is that the race Natagora won on her way to the 1000G?
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Also, although it's fair to say that Hennessy has had an undistinguished record with his European runners (Johannesburg being his only other Gr.1 performer to date), a number of the better ones have trained on well: for example, Mousse Au Chocolat was a very useful juvenile (won a Listed race and was second in a Gr.3) but her best performance came at three (second in Gr.2 Prix Sandringham); Short Dance won a Listed race at two but her best performance came at three (won a Listed race by 12 lengths). Hennessy's very best offspring around the world have all trained on well: Henny Hughes (dual Gr.1 winner at three), Grand Armee (winner of seven Gr.1 races in Australia), Half Hennessy (winner of Gr.1 race at four), Madcap Escapade (winner of Gr.1/Gr.2 races at three and four). Hennessy's relative lack of success with his runners in Europe is a slight worry, but this is more than outweighed by Special Duty's progressive form last year and the positive vibes coming out of Chantilly.
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its next thursday and the normal starting point for french fillies with classic aspirations
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Weren't they quite bullish about Naqoos last year before he got turned over by Le Havre?
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And what did Le Havre go on to do? Proportional would probably be the best horse to highlight if wanting to come up with negatives regarding Special Duty.
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The Imprudence was won by subsequent 1,000 Guineas winners Ma Biche, Miesque, Ravinella and Natagora. Hatoof was beaten a neck in the Imprudence and went on to win the 1,000 Guineas. Pas De Reponse, Coup De Genie and Six Perfections all won the Imprudence and finished in the frame in the 1,000 Guineas.
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Criquette is never going to be anything but bullish in public. Juddmonte have three highly promising maiden winners waiting in the wings in Aviate, Principal Role and Emulous; I would not be touching Special Duty at 11/4 before the Impudence.
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Is there anywhere to watch the Imprudence live? I think Special Duty will definitely take some beating. James did you see my comment the other day about Music Show racing down the wrong side at Ayr and maybe that was a reason to maybe explain her poor showing? There was a lot of conjecture that meeting about the watering that had taken place to try and counteract the draw bias of the gold cup to the point where low numbers were favoured and even with this in mind a group of jockeys, including Alan Munro, still went across to the far side.
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i think joanna from jean claude rouget might give special duty a race in the prix imprudence
she is a very talented filly finished only 2 l in a grade 1 at longhcamp and jean claude rouget horses are already fit |
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It was on ATR last year I think.
Of those 3 named above only Aviate has any chance of going to the Guienas imo. |
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Michrich, I agree that there was a pronounced draw bias at Ayr, but even allowing for that Music Show was still well below her best - she was only fourth in the stands' side 'race', beaten about nine lengths by Beyond Desire and Conniption. Her performance at Ayr can't be attributed just to the draw, there was clearly something else amiss.
Grizly, I agree with you about Joanna. She's a classy filly and is probably the main danger in the Imprudence. ben10, I agree, I'd be very surprised if either Principal Role or Emulous turned up in the Guineas. Can't understand why Emulous is such a short price, to be honest. |
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Aviate is the one I have chanced recently. Streets better than subsequent winners at Kempton, hopefully we will see her in the Nell Gwyn.
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