Good work James.

Have not changed my mind from Special Duty. She is my only ante-post bet for next flat season, and may do some multiples with SNA/Awzaan for small change.

Seta I dismissed completley after her last race, but we'll have to see her again before the big day, most likely at the Craven meeting, and if some bigs odds become available over the winter a saver is likely :D .

that was a PLOT job,Ar. Probably wont happen again for another 50 years imo :^0

I am on Special Duty bigtime for the Guineas ( took the 8/1 after the Cheveley) and only have eyes for her but I wouldn't write off Tabassum yet.
As James said in his excellent synoposis, fillies have disappointed in the Rockfel and gone on to win the Guineas and her winning form in the Oh So Sharp Stakes was franked by the runner up Electric Feel in the Radley Stakes. 25/1 is a big price for her and an over-reaction to one bad run.

PADMINI 40/1 LADCROOKES GET ON !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

With the entries due out shortly, heres an updated list of the main contenders for the 1000 Guineas, with a summary of their form and current Racing Post Ratings (RPR):

Special Duty (C.Head-Maarek) (RPR 117) -2121: generally 7/2. Champion juvenile filly, excellent close second in Gr.1 Prix Morny and impressive winner of Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (a key Guineas pointer). Stayed on very strongly inside the final furlong at Newmarket, shaping as though she would get at least another furlong. Bred to get a mile (has even been entered for the Prix de Diane over 10½f), very progressive and well suited by fast ground. Her trainer compares the filly favourably with her three previous winners of the race.

Seta (L.M.Cumani) (RPR 104) -13: generally 12/1-16/1. Had been trading as short as 7/1-8/1 for the Guineas before her surprise defeat in Gr.2 May Hill Stakes. Has a potent turn of foot and looked all over the winner at Doncaster before being swallowed up by Pollenator and Hibaayeb inside the final furlong. The trainer was not too disappointed and is convinced that the filly (who was still on the weak side) would have won if she had been ridden with more restraint. The form was franked when Hibaayeb went on to win the Gr.1 Fillies Mile and she remains a smart prospect (a possible Guineas ride for K.Fallon).

Lady Of The Desert (B.J.Meehan) (RPR 112) -16113: generally 16/1-20/1 (10/1 in a place). Impressive winner of the Lowther (after which she was generally 8/1-10/1 for the Guineas), but failed to progress further when well beaten by Special Duty in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park last time (pulled hard early, outpaced by the winner, reportedly failed to handle the undulations of the track). Bred to get a mile, but there has been speculation that she may be aimed at the French Guineas.

Misheer (C.E.Brittain) (RPR 109) -112192: generally 16/1-20/1 (25/1 in places). Smart and tough sprinting filly, her only disappointing effort came in the Gr.2 Flying Childers (for which the trainer typically blamed himself). Ran well in defeat in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, taking second spot near the line and shaping as though a step up to 7f would suit (however, she is speedily bred - by Oasis Dream out of a sprinter by Cadeaux Genereux - and she is not certain to stay a mile).

Termagant (K.Prendergast) (RPR 110) -11: generally 14/1-20/1. Beat the smart Cabaret on debut before overcoming very testing ground to win the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes in a slow time, showing a good cruising speed. Yet to race on fast ground. Her trainer mentioned the Irish Guineas as her likely target this year and she is not certain to be aimed at Newmarket.

Music Show (M.R.Channon) (RPR 110) -1101: generally 16/1-20/1 (25/1 in places). Well regarded filly who ran unaccountably badly in the Gr.3 Firth of Clyde Stakes at Ayr but redeemed herself by pulling off shock win when up in trip in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes, beating the progressive Atasari and hot favourite Tabassum (the three well clear). She is likely to stay a mile (she ran on strongly to get up close home in the Rockfel under a vintage Fallon ride) and the Rockfel has been a good pointer in recent years.

Pollenator (R.Hannon) (RPR 107) -62211: generally 20/1 (25/1 in a place). Progressive filly, stepped up markedly on previous efforts to take Gr.2 May Hill Stakes, staying on well to lead close home, after being stopped twice when making her run. The owners are hoping she will develop into an Oaks filly (she is by Motivator out of a mare who was placed at up to 12 furlongs), but they plan to start her off in the Guineas if she is showing enough speed in her work.

Tabassum (Sir M.Stoute) (RPR 108) -113: generally 16/1-20/1 (25/1 in a place). Impressive winner of substandard renewal of the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes and was all the rage for the Gr.2 Rockfel, where she perhaps did too much in front (and may have been racing on slower ground on the rail) and was overhauled late on by both Music Show and Atasari. That performance raised questions about her stamina over a mile and pre-race Guineas quotes of 10/1-14/1 were revised accordingly. Its too soon to write her off, though, and the Guineas is occasionally won by a filly that ran below expectations in the Rockfel (eg Wince, Ameerat). On the down side, shes quite a small filly and reportedly

I've backed Tabassum (and others) as a back-up to the favourite, but I have a few niggling doubts about her. She's quite a keen sort, she was free to post on at least one occasion last year, she is not terribly big (even though her dam Tomoohat was a big scopey filly) and I just have a feeling that Sir Michael does not really rate her as a Guineas filly. After the Oh So Sharp Stakes he was obviously thrilled with the filly's performance, but I got the impression that he hadn't thought of her as a Guineas prospect until that point - he said he'd have to give the Guineas some thought, but in a way that suggested that the thought hadn't occurred to him until then. I note that the maiden winner Muwakaba has been entered for the French Guineas, but Tabassum hasn't been given the same entry, and I have a gut feeling that Muwakaba may prove to be the better long-term prospect of the two.

Good work james, thanks. I'm on SD too and you highlight the main dangers very thoroughly. Are there any unraced or maiden dangers do you think, Safina for example

Seeing them in the paddock is a big advantage ( imo ), wish i could get to the races more often.

Scratch Modeyra from the list of maiden winners posted on this thread on 3 March - she has not been entered for the Guineas. All the others have been entered.

Isn't she out for quite a while ?

I thought they said she was doubtful to make it in time .. could be wrong

Apart from the fillies highlighted in my 3 March posting, very few of the other entries warrant consideration:
Famous (RPR 104): just one win from six starts, best effort when second to Termagant in Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (later close 4th to Shakespearean in valuable sales race)
Lady Lupus (RPR 98): best performance on final start when winning 8f listed race at the Curragh from Atasari, who went to finish close second to Music Show in the Rockfel
Timepiece (RPR 101) and Nurture (RPR 100): first and second in listed mile race at Newmarket at end of last season - the former looks more of an Oaks prospect and is in same ownership as Guineas favourite, the latter is still a maiden after four starts
Siyaadah (RPR 103): came from a long way back to win the UAE Guineas, but is nothing special on last year's form and has been beaten again since
Sagacious (RPR 87): mile maiden winner on heavy ground (form has worked out quite well), thought to be more of an Oaks prospect
Revered (RPR 80): workmanlike winner of 7f maiden at Newmarket on second start (in slightly faster time than Field Day achieved in the other division), sure to improve from two to three, in same ownership as Guineas favourite
Sent From Heaven (RPR 105): made all and just held on to win Gr.3 Prestige Stakes and then fourth to Hibaayeb in Fillies Mile (adopting similar forcing tactics)
Joanna (RPR 107): trained in Italy last year, won Gr.3 Prix du Calvados and then good third to Rosanara in Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, now with J-C.Rouget
Distinctive (RPR 101): impressive winner of Gr.3 Firth of Clyde Stakes at Ayr (heavily favoured by pronounced draw bias), beating among others Beyond Desire and Music Show, but disappointing in Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes behind Music Show (not stay 7f?)
Ayun Tara (RPR 104): three times winner over a mile, then close second in Gr.3 Prix des Reservoirs; this year second to Siyaadah in UAE Guineas

I'm not completely dismissing Nurture, Augustine. As you say, she improved considerably for stepping up to a mile in her last two starts for Richard Hannon (she has since transferred to Ralph Beckett). She's well bred (out of a dam who's by Singspiel out of Prix de Diane winner Sil Sila). Her form is very decent (she finished just ahead of Famous in the Goffs Million Mile and was then just touched off by Oaks fancy Timepiece at Newmarket). On the downside, as a four-times-raced maiden, she would break all the trends if she were to win the Guineas; her sire Bachelor Duke has never sired a Group 1 winner (his only Group 2 winner to date raced in New Zealand, his only Group race winner to date in Europe was Luminous Eyes, who won a Group 3 in Ireland); her form is at Listed level and still leaves her with quite a bit to find with the leading contenders; Henry Cecil stated after the Newmarket race that his filly had gone 'over the top' and may be considerably better than the bare form; her Curragh run suggests that she might want further than a mile this year to be seen to best effect; and, as far as I know, there are no specific plans for the filly and I'd doubt whether she will be aimed at the Guineas. If I could get about 500/1 for her on Betfair, I'd probably have a few quid on her though.

Of the 'darker' prospects, I shall be keeping a close eye on Decorative, Field Day and Safina.

It is a shame Decorative met with a setback when on course for the Timeform Fillies race as she would have been able to gain valuable course experience; she won very nicely on debut, beating a few subsequent winners really well, and it's not every day Jarvis sends out a winning 2yo on debut. She'll obviously need to come through her trial run to show both her wellbeing and whether she's up to Group level, her debut run alone suggesting she would be.

Field Day does have quite a bit of stamina in her pedigree, as you'd expect a Ballymacoll homebred to have, but she had no problems with 7f on her debut at HQ last autumn in what is usually a well contested maiden, travelling really well into contention and staying on strongly from a useful sort in Scorn (also entered in the 1000 Guineas) who had previous experience. Her inclusion in this suggests they think she has the requisite speed for a Guineas.

Safina is an obvious type on paper, being the second foal of Russian Rhythm, but I thought she was given a nice introductory ride by Fallon in Field Day's maiden, travelling well into contention, lacking the gears to go with the front two before coming home well towards the finish. Stoute obvious likes her a lot to stick her in the Guineas, suggesting she'll be expected to go in when making her reappearance, which I imagine would indeed be in the Geoffrey Barling at the Craven meeting (or whatever it's called these days). However, she would clearly need to win that and win it well to be considered for a race such as the Guineas.

nicely said, the bairn

James, are you aware of any possible Derby horses from the B.Hills camp .. had a look and not seeing much tbh

yeah that's what I came up with. Ta.

I'm not sure whether the entries for Sagacious indicate that she has done well over the winter, but she's a very well-bred filly (half-sister to Youmzain and Creachadoir) and they're probably keeping all their options open. Her best trip will probably turn out to be around a mile to 10f - her full sister Shreyas was successful over 8-9f last year but appeared not to get 10f+ - and she did very well to win on heavy ground last year on her debut (she's sure to be better suited by good ground). I understand that Atasari is being aimed at the Guineas and she would be the stable's main hope at this stage. I don't know whether there are any specific plans for Sagacious.

Several 1000 Guineas entries are possible runners at the Curragh on Sunday, the first day of the new flat season in Ireland. Aidan O'Brien's once-raced maidens Full Of Hope (4th to Intapeace last June) and Remember When (2nd to Karasiyra in November) are entered in the 6f and mile maidens respectively. The Gr.3 Park Express Stakes over a mile has attracted a high-class set of entries including Jim Bolger's Atasari, Gile Na Greine and Gold Bubbles, along with Aidan O'Brien's Devoted To You and Lady Lupus. Atasari is reportedly heading for the Guineas but will need to run well here to book her ticket. Gile Na Greine is highly regarded and can be forgiven her poor run in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, which was run on very testing ground. Devoted To You was runner-up in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes last year and is clearly a smart filly, while Lady Lupus narrowly beat Atasari in a listed race last autumn.

1000 Guineas entry Full Of Hope has been declared to run in the 6f maiden at the Curragh tomorrow, providing us with an early indication of how forward or backward the Ballydoyle fillies are. The Gr.3 Park Express Stakes is a much more significant race, featuring two Guineas entries: Devoted To You (the chosen mount of Johnny Murtagh) and Lady Lupus (JP O'Brien), plus Jim Bolger's Oaks entry Akdarena (K Manning). There are no 1000 Guineas entries running in the mile maiden (Remember When has been taken out). Devoted To You appears to hold an excellent chance and can stake her claim to be the leading Ballydoyle prospect for the 1000 Guineas.