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ground might be heavy at maisons
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The ground was heavy at Saint-Cloud on Monday, so it's a possibility that similar conditions may prevail at M-L next week. Joanna wouldn't want it heavy either - her three wins and her Boussac third all came on good ground (she was a beaten odds-on favourite on soft ground on her other start).
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Worst value in the antepost market for the 1000 Guineas at the moment is surely Emulous, a general 20/1 shot with bookmakers and no bigger than about 36 on Betfair at the time of writing.
A few weeks ago trainer Dermot Weld told At The Races: "She is a very smart filly and could be my best three-year-old filly. She will run in one of the Irish Classic trials and we will see how she gets on. At the moment I see her more as an Irish Guineas filly, but she will certainly run in some of the early Classic trials in the spring and she could well be an English Guineas filly." Well, she has missed the first two trials at the Curragh and Leopardstown, and is fast running out of options. With just one placed effort from 13 runners at the opening two turf fixtures in Ireland, it's clear that Weld's horses are well behind schedule and I'll be very surprised if Emulous runs in the Newmarket Guineas. |
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looks pretty poor value to me now james - thanks for the heads up with the quotes, id been looking at the filly as well.
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There's been more money for Special Duty and Seta, the only two fillies to have attracted serious support in recent days. Special Duty is 5/2 from 11/4 (PP, SJ), Seta is 12 from 14 (WH, L, PP). It's 20/1 bar those two.
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A well known and highly respected newspaper tipster will be revealing his 1000 Guineas selection tomorrow. Bound to have some effect on the antepost market. Hope he doesn't pick one of the lightly raced maiden winners. I'm a huge fan of Special Duty, but at this stage the 'value' possibly lies with the likes of Music Show, Atasari, Pollenator, Hibaayeb, Lady Darshaan, Devoted To You.
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You don't like Decorative then, James?
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I do like Decorative, but she's terribly inexperienced and I have no idea whether she's even going to be aimed at one of the traditional Guineas trials. Apparently she has wintered well but there are no plans for her at present. I wouldn't back any of the lightly-raced maiden winners (Decorative, Field Day, Aviate, Plume, Emulous, Muwakaba, Rumoush et al) until plans become clearer.
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Decorative could be anything, definitely worth a saver or starter bet, but be careful of gambled horses, my £10 bet on Seta resulted on it going from 16/1 to 12/1 in the space of 3 minutes, sometimes the bookies shorten them up nearer to post time, without any money going down. it appears to me that all of the challengers are not moving much because everyone has a good bet on Special Duty, also some owners or trainers have 2 or 3 entries in the race, therefore keeping punters guessing. cheers.
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Plenty of market movers today, particularly Music Show (all the 20/1 has gone) and Plume (now generally 20/1, having been as big as 50/1 a week or so ago). Special Duty and Seta remain in demand.
Special Duty 9/4 from 5/2 (Sky) Seta 10 from 12 (L, SJ, T, Sky) Music Show 16 from 25 (T), 16 from 20 (SJ, PP, Sky) Plume 20 from 33 (C, SJ), 20 from 25 (L, WH, VC, Sky) Tabassum 14 from 16 (SJ), 20 from 25 (Sky) Misheer 20 from 25 (SJ) Field Day 20 from 25 (L, Sky) There have been a few minor drifters: Lady Of The Desert 16 from 14 (C) Cabaret 16 from 14 (C) Emulous 25 from 20 (L, SJ) You'll Be Mine 33 from 25 (L) Revered 40 from 20 (L) |
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Pollenator 1pt win 25-1 , from Tom Segel
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Latest plans (gleaned from the Racing Post):
Lady Of The Desert could go for the Fred Darling at Newbury (or could go straight to the Guineas). Field Day could go for either the English or the French Guineas ("we're not sure"). Music Show is an intended runner in the Guineas (with or without a prior race). Misheer is progressing and it depends on how she is training as to whether she goes for a trial. Termagant: "the English Guineas may come that bit soon for her" but it hasn't been ruled out. Plume may start off in the Fred Darling. Pollenator is likely to go straight to the Guineas. Tabassum will not run in a trial and they hope to run her in the Guineas. Decorative and Beyond Desire: "the 1,000 Guineas could come a little soon for them". Hibaayeb may go for an Oaks trial. Long Lashes and Siyaadah are possible Guineas runners for Godolphin ("we will have to see when we get back to England"). |
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Richard Hannon's said Pollenator misses the race since she's not fast enough so that's very intelligent from Tom.
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Meehan said immediately after the Cheveley Park that Lady Of The Desert didn't handle the course and would run in the French Guineas.
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SK, I don't think Meehan ever actually said that LOTD would go for the French Guineas. Richard Hannon said recently that Pollenator would go for the Guineas provided she shows enough speed in her work, but they won't rush her and there is still a possibility that she might go for an Oaks trial instead.
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Tom , does not believe Pollenator will improve for the step up in distance for the Oaks.
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Meehan definitley said she did not handle the track though which would be a big worry for her fans.
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You tend to find that trainers always call it correctly immediately after the race - but somehow time heals the wounds and they come up with valid reasons for defeat and excuses for turning the form around. I could not back Lady of the Desert with counterfeit - she is too small, lacks scope, hasn't grown over the winter and won't stay quick enough ! Plus she didn't handle the Dip last year which the trainer is glossing over !
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Lady Of The Desert did not lack scope last year, in my opinion. Her Lowther win was very impressive and she should not be lightly dismissed. A number of fillies have performed slightly below par in the Cheveley Park in the past and still gone on to win the Guineas. The trainer thinks she'll stay the mile and on breeding there are grounds for optimism on that score. The dip at Newmarket would be a slight worry, though, in view of the trainer's comments last year.
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just watched the cheveley park again there and was hoping for a little more encouragement from lady of the desert. having said that, given her form before then including a very impressive win in the lowther, she's definitely worth a small speculative bet at around 30/1 on here at the moment
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Lady Darshaan , to go straight to the Guineas without a prep run. Not saying she will win but 40-1 about a horse just touched off in a Grp 1, with form that ties in with Pollenator, Seta, seems a big price.
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Jim Bolger's highly regarded 1000 Guineas entry Gile Na Greine, a full sister to Cuis Ghaire, has been entered for a fillies race over a mile at Dundalk on Friday evening. One to watch out for. Bolger's turf runners have generally disappointed so far this term, perhaps the horses are a bit behind owing to the wet weather, but at least the stable has had a couple of winners. Gile Na Greine won her maiden and was then well beaten in the Moyglare Stud Stakes (on very testing ground). If she takes after her sister Cuis Ghaire she will be a considerably better performer on fast ground. She should be OK on the all-weather surface at Dundalk.
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Safina all the rage today...?
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Hmmm. Safina into 16s with all three major firms. Presumably it's a telephone tipster-inspired gamble, based on an impressive gallop. Keep a level head: 16/1 is a absolutely terrible price for a once-raced maiden, even one trained by Sir Michael Stoute. If Safina wins the Guineas I will give up betting for good. As it happens, I did back Safina for the Guineas six months ago at 40s, but only as insurance. The worst value in the Guineas market now are undoubtedly Plume and Safina. Neither of them can possibly win the Guineas, in my opinion.
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jamesp, do you know whether there has been any news on Scorn...?
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^ agreed. Any amount of promise on debut but a very silly price now based on all known evidence so far. Mind you, that said, Ghanaati's credentials hardly stood out a mile before she won the race last year, did they?
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No news on Scorn (who finished one place ahead of Safina in that back-end maiden). I get the feeling that her stablemate Dyna Waltz is more likely to run in the Guineas than Scorn.
re: Ghanaati: her maiden win at Kempton was very impressive and she was given a Racing Post Rating of 87, Safina's 3rd to Field Day earned her a rating of just 71. Safina is now a shorter price than Ghanaati was at this time last year: Ghanaati could still be backed at 25/1 on 18 April last year. We've seen these market moves many times before and almost without exception they come unstuck. |
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whats ur top 3 at present james?
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Scorn is hard to weigh up in terms of trip preference. Full brother Ibn Battuta is a useful 7f/1m horse in the UAE, but her dam stayed well at three (stayed up to 1m 7f) and is related to Eagle Mountain (suited by anything between 8-12f), though a 1000 Guineas entry and no Oaks entry suggests Gosden views her as a filly with more speed than stamina. Nice prospect whatever her best trip turns out to be.
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After all your sense on here this is a very bizarre post...
jamesp 09 Apr 11:41 Hmmm. Safina into 16s with all three major firms. Presumably it's a telephone tipster-inspired gamble, based on an impressive gallop. Keep a level head: 16/1 is a absolutely terrible price for a once-raced maiden, even one trained by Sir Michael Stoute. If Safina wins the Guineas I will give up betting for good. As it happens, I did back Safina for the Guineas six months ago at 40s, but only as insurance. The worst value in the Guineas market now are undoubtedly Plume and Safina. Neither of them can possibly win the Guineas, in my opinion. |
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Doubtful its a telephone tipster.
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CFT, I tend to get a bit annoyed by these ridiculous knee-jerk gambles on unexposed Guineas hopefuls - they hardly ever win (not in the Guineas anyway - Ghanaati was the only 1000 winner in modern times to fit that profile, and she was still 25/1 a couple of weeks before the race, so she wasn't the subject of a Safina-style gamble). That's probably the reason why I was being unnecessarily dogmatic about Safina's chances. The truth is, her current odds of around 16/1 would be right if she had already won her maiden next week in reasonably impressive fashion. But she hasn't even run yet. I suppose some people have latched on to the fact that she's been given an entry in the Nell Gwyn, but I suspect she's more likely to run on Thursday in the 7f maiden. We'll see. Undoubtedly an interesting prospect, but terrible value for the Guineas.
platinni, my top few (in terms of potential winnings) at the moment are Special Duty, Tabassum, Lady Of The Desert, Seta and Atasari. In terms of how I currently rate their chances I'd leave out Tabassum and add Music Show and Pollenator. I also like Devoted To You, who looks the best of O'Brien's fillies at this stage. Of those at shortish prices I don't like Safina or Plume. |
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Music Show is fast becoming the biggest antepost bet of my life. As I said before I was really impressed when I saw it run to post on the day it won the Rockfel at 33s. I can't wait for May should it get there fit and welll. I'm def gonna go and watch her run and hopefully win again. ;)
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The Nell Gwyn raised more questions than it answered as far as most of the runners were concerned, with Music Show the only likely Guineas runner to put up a good performance, and with just eight runners in the Fred Darling at Newbury on Saturday, there are fewer and fewer probable runners in the 1000 Guineas. The only intended runners I know of at this stage are:
Special Duty, Music Show, Seta, Tabassum, Misheer (if she runs well at Newbury), Pollenator, Sent From Heaven, Pipette (but only if there is cut in the ground), Lady Darshaan, plus one or more of the O'Brien-trained trio Devoted To You, Famous and You'll Be Mine, and possibly one or more of the Godolphin entries (Long Lashes, Hibaayeb and Siyaadah). I dare say there will one or two more runners, but at the moment all the other entries are doubtful runners (or we don't know what the plan is for them). If anyone hears of any plans for any of the other entries, please let us know on this thread. Thanks. |
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Why is Seta shorter in the betting than Pollenator?
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Field Day,antone know if she is being targeted for Newmarket guineas?cheers.
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Collateral form suggests that Seta is capable of significantly better than she achieved in the May Hill at Doncaster. Seta beat Dyna Waltz (who had the benefit of a previous outing) by 8 lengths on her debut; Dyna Waltz went on to finish 3¼ lengths behind May Hill runner-up Hibaayeb in the Fillies' Mile. Seta looked an altogether speedier and classier filly than Pollenator and Hibaayeb at Doncaster - she showed an excellent turn of foot to take the race (Luca Cumani afterwards reported that Kieren Fallon was surprised by just how well the filly accelerated) and then faded towards the finish. Both jockey and trainer learned more about her at Doncaster and she will be ridden with more restraint in future. I, for one, will be surprised if she fails to reverse the May Hill form in the Guineas (assuming she's 100% on the day).
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Current Racing Post Ratings for the leading contenders, following the Prix Imprudence and Nell Gwyn Stakes:
117 Special Duty 114 Music Show 112 Lady Of The Desert 110 Hibaayeb 110 Blue Maiden 110 Termagant 109 Misheer 109 Atasari 108 Tabassum 108 Lady Darshaan 107 Pollenator 107 Long Lashes 106 Rumoush 106 Puff 105 You'll Be Mine 105 Habaayib 105 Sent From Heaven 104 Seta 104 Devoted To You 104 Famous Special Duty was given a rating of 110 in the Prix Imprudence, 7lbs below her best performance last year. Obviously, these ratings are just one person's opinion, but it's encouraging that Special Duty will only need to find 7lbs on that effort to reproduce her Cheveley Park Stakes performance. Four of the last five Guineas-winning performances have been rated in the range 113-115. At her best, Special Duty has already achieved a RPR of 117, which is good enough to win an average Guineas. There is every reason to expect her to improve by at least 7lbs between the Imprudence and the Guineas. Music Show has been given a rating of 114 for her Nell Gwyn win, so she only needs to reproduce that effort to have a good chance of landing the Guineas. These two are currently the stand-out fillies. |
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SD only has to find 7lbs, and prove she stays 1 mile.
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Precisely. Hatoof improved by 10lbs for her reappearance in the Imprudence in 1992, and it's very hard to believe that Special Duty won't find at least 7lbs improvement with that run under her belt. On breeding she should get the mile, but we won't know for sure until she runs in the Guineas.
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