cheers.

Sam rode a good race on Little Josh. Pity he tired so quickly but Weird Al has always been a battler. Can't believe how much he drifted though there was a false favourite.

Hi Moviebuff - we couldn't be happier. First schooling session a little sketchy after Aintree but fine after that, in better form than ever for this time of year - can wait to get started.

Hi Meatloaf - To be honest I don't spend much time thinking about it, we just concentrate on getting IC in condition to do himself justice. He is not the easiest to get fit or keep fit, but when he is we are happy to take anyone on. For us the season will be about the Gold Cup. My personal view is that Denman, Kauto and Imperial are the only horses who have proven they can run to the standard required to win a Gold Cup and the rest on form in the book are a long way short. So the question is do those three train on, and if they do can any of the others improve enough to force themselves into the picture. As a Grade 1 winner WAF is one of the more obvious candidates, but until he runs there is simply no way of determining whether he has improved or not,(I have less confidence than his trainer as to how much potential improvement can be obtained from a wind op).

Hi Julius - I think a lot of it is common sense, but obviously I have the benefit of a lot of information which is not in the public domain. I think he is right in taking the view that any horses ability to win a Gold Cup is apparent in the horses profile.

From a pure punting perspective I discovered a few years ago that the value is to be found by eliminating the hype from your calculations.

That is easier said than done, as a Gold Cup fanatic I used to consider the best Gold Cup winners I had seen, and shared the view that some were "winners of a poor race". The more I eliminated the emotion, the more I began to realise there was a clearly defined standard required to win the race and all of the last 40 winners had achieved it. The real wrench in this theory is to let go of the heros that you believed were exceptional - and champions amongst champions and accept that they were just champions (which should be more than enough - but the need for hype and vitriol seems endemic these days).

Over the years the Gold Cup fences have become smaller, less rigid and those which were the most testing have been moved to make them easier to jump. The horses carried 4lbs less from 2004, and the new drainage made the ground less testing and more consistent.

So given we are now in a golden age of chasers, how do we measure their superiority. The truth is that we cannot - because the facts are not consistent with the hype and vitriol.

The most obvious basis is time. Whilst time of no single race can be an effective measure of the quality of the race - when you look at an extended sample of races any pattern of improvement must become apparent. I have looked at the last 50 years, but the last 23 are the best sample as starting points can be established from video footage and the timings were digital.

The standard required is easier to define, as the aim is to jump the fences and reach the finishing line first. So apart from the ability to jump then speed is the most important factor.

Speed clearly = stride rate x stride length. So a horse taking frequent long strides is the most likely winner. This might sound obvious until you look at how narrow the margins of superiority achieved by the champions really is;

In the Gold Cup over the last 23 runnings the difference in time per furlong has been less than a second. (Gd 0.7 secs / GF 0.2 secs / GS 0.3 secs / Hvy 0.8 secs).

In the Queen Mother Gd 0.2 secs / GF 0.4 secs / GS 1.0 secs / Sft 0.0 secs.

As a horse breathes in time to his stride pattern it is also true that;

Stride rate = resperation rate and,

Stride length = resperation depth

Hence;

Speed = stride rate x stride length - also

Speed = resperation rate x resperation depth

So in simple terms less air = less frequent shorter strides.

What determines a champion is the ability to sustain his stride pattern (supported by a superior fuel system i.e airflow) for longer than the opposition. Given the margins are so slender then the ability to jump cleanly and land running is essential.

Whilst this type of analysis provides a good basis for short listing potential winners of most of the graded races it is especially true of Cheltenham. I believe this is because of the unique and testing nature of the course which pushes all horses to their limits, and the fact that all horses in the championship races are primed to run to the best of their ability.

In the case of Imperial his victory in the Ryanair was a clear indication that he could potentially reach the required Gold Cup standard. Given his troubled preparation and the fact that he wasn't 100% going into the race, the extra 5 furlongs was always likely to be within his compass, particularly with his proven ability to charge up the hill. His performance in the Betfair was exceptional given that he travelled across on the same lorry as the 2-y-o with strangles bound for Stan Moores. He therefore had a 21 day incubation period and missed a great deal of his preparation.

Hence my view was he was capable of running to a standard required to win a Gold Cup.

Does the gap between races matter - yes Mordin has a valid point. He has always been difficult to keep sound and the bone remodelling problem on his hocks needs treatment during the season - for that reason his recovery cycle tends to be longer, and he has always been produced for his Cheltenham targets almost to the exclusion of all other races.

We believe this year he is sounder than he has ever been this season(but we need to stay lucky - please god), so he may be able to recover more quickly from his exertions.

Right handed - well he doesn't jump left, and he jumps off the wrong leg going left or right handed when it suits him. So whilst he may not have won right handed I don't believe he cannot win right handed. He ran badly in his first King George as he was suffering from a lung infection, and last year Deep Purple jumped into him and he landed on the 2nd fence. His run at Punchestown was on ground which was virtually unraceable, and he ran well enough for a long way. Are these valid excuses, I don't honestly know. But a short drive to Kempton with a guarantee of decent ground is a better preparation for his most important appointment than two ferrytrips and bottomless ground in Ireland.

Cannot win at any course other than Cheltenham - there is no doubt he loves Cheltenham with a passion, but he came pretty close at Haydock, and if Kauto had not made a late decision to desert the JN Wines then would it even be a point of debate.

The patterns he identifies are valid on the published information - but not the full picture

Hey Booby, can I get your opinion on the danger posed by Planet of Sound should he turn up at Haydock? I think the track may suite hm down to the ground. He might be a real danger to IC and WAF. It's certainly no 2 horse race.

My reservation in backing IC is due to the Haydock fences and how slow he was over them last year. Kauto won because of his jumping and guts last year. I just think the fences at Haydock since they've been rebuilt don't really suite the Cheltenham horses.

POS choked at Cheltenham and thats why he had the tongue tie on at Punchestown. I agree the race wasn't of the highest standard that day given Joncol was a n/r and I was very sweet on him that day given I think Punchestown is his best track.

Personally I don't rate Albertas over 3m, Nacarat is an admirable horse but not top class. WAF had a breathing op and is not that forward as others because of that PN said. If Noland wins I'll be stunned.

So that leaves IC, but he is going to be too short imo. Probably evens at best? So that leads me back to POS as a possible e/w bet in the region of 12/1.

Personally I am of the opinion Kauto and IC are so far ahead of the competition they will have the King George between themselves. I do not subscribe to the idea IC doesn't like Kempton, and am happy to take advantage of that belief by taking the inflated odds. I'll also get involved in the w/o Kauto betting too.

Are NTD and yourself in agreement that he hasn't given his true running at that track given his blunder last year and feed problems was it the year before? Long Run is a talented horse but I believe only IC is capable of posting the 180 required to live with Kauto at Kempton and no 5yo is posting a 180.

Not often you get the Gold Cup winner at such big prices fr the King George. I've had some myself a some weeks back. All the best Bobby.

Although I very much respect Imperial Commander and was quite rightly crowned Gold Cup Winner I still suspect he is a lot better at Cheltenham than any other track.

Obviously he ran well at Haydock last year to "beat" Kauto Star but I suspect he could be vulnerable in this years Betfair Chase which is looking like it could be a decent race. I'm not saying he won't win but I certainly wouldn't back him at a very short price.

Ballyfitz

I once heard someone on this forum describe Ballyfitz as a slow jumping pig- and I agreed with them

Wd mate..

Dual Gold Cup winner imo

wd Bobby

Very nicely done. He got the Betfair chase he deserves. Gonna be a great race at Kempton. All the best Bobby.

What do we make of Tidal Bay? He's obviously not without ability on his day but I'm very surprised he finished so close as I'd written him off long ago over fences. I'm going to take the view he was flattered running on through beaten horses having escaped the battle down the back straight. We also know he has good flat speed once the obstacles are out of the way. IC was entitled to tire having burnt off the principals a long way out and he also jumped like a puissance horse at times on what looked like testing ground. As usual I won't back him for the King George though I can see why he's running there as it works as a Cheltenham prep. Roll on the Gold Cup and let's hope he stays fit and well.

A perfectly pleasing seasonal debut (and over £100k for connections too). Still the one to beat back at Cheltenham given his love for the place.

Another fine ride by Brennan. I thought IC was a bit buzzy early but PB kept him settled and took it up at the right time.  The horse looked fit and very well but he'll come on a fair bit for that and I think the ground would not have been in his favour.  I suspect BD and his Friends in the North will be very pleased and confident about the remainder of the campaign. Freshness seems the key factor now with IC and they'll see he goes to the Festival absolutely bouncing and champing at the bit. 

My only reservation is the determination to go to Kempton. On form it makes sense and I know there have been excuses for his last two King G runs, but he does not look comfortable going right handed and the track is too sharp imo.  I think he could get flustered and start making mistakes.  I hope I'm wrong as I'd like to see him turn up in March at his favourite track, sound, well and full of confidence.  Good luck Bobby, whatever you decide.

What a horse , great to see him in the flesh for the first time !

Funny how twiston had been saying for the last week he was 100% today no mention how he'd come on for the run and nigel does have his horses 100% first time out usually. Then after the race he makes out he will come on again for the race, sort of makes me think nigel was expecting better?

WD Bobby, cheers for having him straight enough to do the job, He did me a big favour today.