Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Julius Caesar ( JC 100 BC )
25 Nov 09 19:30
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Jul 09
| Topic/replies: 1,992 | Blogger: Julius Caesar ( JC 100 BC )'s blog
Your thoughts on this article by marmite nick m8.

Following the Betfair Chase I now know how everyone in Ireland must have felt after Thierry Henry handballed his team's way to victory over the Irish side last week. I made IMPERIAL COMMANDER (45) one of my best bets of the whole year and was devastated when the photo went to Kauto Star.

One reason I was so confident of Imperial Commander is that I was convinced I and many others had tagged him wrongly as a non-stayer.

It was certainly very easy to jump to the conclusion that Imperial Commander didn't stay. After all he'd won seven of the eight times he'd gone less than three miles before the Betfair Chase and lost all six times he's been asked to go three miles plus.

However things didn't look anything like as clear cut when you took a closer look at Imperial Commander.

Watching the video of his win in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival I saw that Imperial Commander took on the very speedy front runner Our Vic and ran him into the ground after less than two miles. He then continued powering away on his own up front and clearly outstayed all his rivals up the stiff finishing hill on yielding ground on one of the stiffest tracks in the country.

Then there was Imperial Commander's physique. He's a tall, very deep chested, long striding sort that looked like a three miler running against two and two and a half milers at Cheltenham. It certainly looked like his jockey rode him to exploit his superior stamina that day.

There were several other things that persuaded me Imperial Commander would stay three miles - and more.

The first was the insistence of his jockey and trainer. The seconds was his pedigree. His three siblings, including his full sister, all won point to points over three miles.

So why had Imperial Commander no wins to his name over longer trips? I'm pretty sure I now know the answer.

I strongly suspect that Imperial Commander flopped at three miles before the Betfair Chase because he'd never been fresh enough to run well at the distance. He'd won all six times he'd come into a race off a break of seven weeks or more but scored just once from eight tries when returned to the races more quickly - as he had for all his three mile efforts.

The field that Imperial Commander beat in the Ryanair was brilliant. So with reasonable doubts existing about Kauto Star I thought he was a fantastic bet at around 10-1.

The race was pretty much a carbon copy of the Ryanair. But this time the front runner that Imperial Commander pressed early wasn't Our Vic, it was another David Pipe inmate Madison Du Berlais. As was the case at Cheltenham, Imperial Commander had the front runner beat with a mile to run and kicked on. He was kicked on into the lead at this point by jockey Paddy Brennan who stole a quick peak back at his rivals and must have liked what he saw.

Ruby Walsh on Kauto Star was clearly getting a bit anxious at this stage and moved his mount up quickly into second, stealing a look of his own back at the other horses as he did so.

Entering the straight it was clear that Imperial Commander was going to take some catching. He was two or three lengths clear and not stopping. But a slow jump two out allowed Kauto Star to catch up, head him narrowly and then forge on two lengths clear. You could see Brennan had a fair bit of horse left under him though, so it wasn't surprising he was able to stage a rally and get back in front just before the line. Unfortunately his head was up and his rivals down as they crossed the line. As a result Kauto Star got the decision.

Make no mistake, this was a huge performance by Imperial Commander, one of the best we've seen over jumps in years. It took a top performance by the very best chaser in the last decade and a lucky head bob to beat him by the narrowest of margins. He had the rest of a high class field 24 lengths and more behind.

The big question now is whether Imperial Commander can reproduce this form in the King George.

If my theory about him needing seven weeks between his runs is correct then the answer has to be 'no' as there's only five weeks between the Betfair Chase and the King George. However most horses that need to be fresh are good for their first two runs of the season, however close together they are. Thereafter they tend to need a break of five weeks, quite often six, but almost never seven or more to run well again.

So why did Imperial Commander run so dreadfully in last year's King George? It was only his second run of the season and came 41 days after the first.

I think there may well be several explanations. One I'm inclined towards is that Imperial Commander is too bit, tall and long striding to handle a tight course like Kempton (he ran below form around the only other tight track he's tried - Aintree).

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies believes that the answer may be Imperial Commander dislikes right-handed tracks. It's a good theory because Imperial Commander ran another clunker the only other time he was asked to go right handed. And this was after a 48 day break at last year's Punchestown Festival.

At this stage it's tough to give a definitive answer as Imperial Commander has run a couple of poor races on left handed tracks too when he's been pretty fresh. And he's never shown a sign of jumping to his right like most horse that prefer going that way do.

If he were mine I'd forget about the King George and shoot for the Lexus Chase instead at left-handed Leopardstown. If he ran a clunker there then we'd at least know for sure it's because he wasn't fresh enough rather than it being due to a dislike of going right-handed. Thereafter I'd lay him off all the way to the Cheltenham Gold Cup. That is the perfect race for Imperial Commander because he's such a great big beast of a horse that showed here he can go a tremendous pace and keep going really strongly in testing conditions. The extended three and a quarter miles at Cheltenham should suit him perfectly.

The key to Imperial Commander is clearly the spacing of his races. This is far from unusual with the best chasers these days. Seven of the last fourteen Cheltenham Gold Cup winners were off for 77 days or more before winning the big race. Another three had a break of 47 days plus.

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 26  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 26 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,025
By:
buddeliea
When: 25 Nov 09 19:44
Well i aint BD, But i have to say thats a very interesting article,and seems to make a lot of sense to me. Will be very interesting to see what BD makes of it.
By:
Julius Caesar ( JC 100 BC )
When: 25 Nov 09 19:45
We could have an almighty ante post gold cup charge on our hands..... Once Bobbys got on of course ;)
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 25 Nov 09 19:50
If he were mine I'd forget about the King George and shoot for the Lexus Chase instead at left-handed Leopardstown.

Exactly what I said post Haydock
By:
JOSE93
When: 25 Nov 09 19:51
Following the Betfair Chase I now know how everyone in Ireland must have felt after Thierry Henry handballed his team's way to victory over the Irish side last week. I made IMPERIAL COMMANDER (45) one of my best bets of the whole year and was devastated when the photo went to Kauto Star.


lol - An all time classic that one. Pocket talking, as I'll put it, is now comparable to one of the biggest sporting injustices of all time.
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 25 Nov 09 19:57
Yea Jose.

It is fair to say Kauto was somewhat lucky to have his head down and IC's up right on the line - the jumping bit is bullsh1t though. Jumping is the name of the game, as PN says, if you don't jump, you don't win. Its not KS's fault IC hit two fences and KS was foot perfect. To compare it to a robbery like in the Stade de France is laughable.

I am a bit surprised he gave IC such a huge rating. 45 is the highest he's ever given a chaser - KS has achieved it 4 times on his scale - and now IC has achieved it. I am sceptical. I don't think KS was anywhere near his best. As much as 7lbs below it in fact. IC is quality of course. Just ntot as good as a peak form Kauto.
By:
fuzzyone
When: 25 Nov 09 22:08
Mordin in talking sense shocker :0
By:
Steeplechasing
When: 25 Nov 09 22:12
One sentence from that extract should be all any form student needs to read to close the book once and for all on Mordin:

Madison du Berlais is a greedy feeder at home according to his trainer David Pipe. This explains why he has lost all six of his seasonal debuts to date.

The man is deluded. Case closed.
By:
JOSE93
When: 25 Nov 09 22:16
Good job IC never jumped that fence well then is what I've concluded after reading through the IC section slowly 5 times. Otherwise the article would have read, "Imperial Commander puts up best chasing performance since my mad rating system began etc." To think, if not for that error, we'd probably be reading that Imperial Commander, with a 46 in brackets of course, had put up the best chasing performance for over a decade. If that would have been rubbish, then so is that from above.
By:
Bobby Dazzler
When: 25 Nov 09 22:19
Personally I think there is a lot of sense in the article - I have long had the thought that it is a stamp that Flemensfirth puts on all his best progeny. Indeed he himself was best fresh.

But Imperial is a case in himself, he has had his share of physical problems which have contributed to the variation in his previous performances.5 weeks - 7 weeks who knows - what I do know is he is a much bigger and stronger horse this year.

The previous evidence is also flimsy as he was never a natural over hurdlles and had encountered problems during the season. His novice chase season stopped in the 3 miler at Cheltenham when his hock aand back problems finally came too a head. Last season he improved dramatically for his win in the Paddy Power and if the Boylesports had been run i am convinced he would have won it. By the time of the KG he was under the general stable cloud and never fired. He tired going up the hill in the Ryanair as we had had to abandon a racecourse gallop due to firm ground at Newbury and he was probably a little under cooked.

On the issue of ratings I have always believed that Kauto has never got the credit he deserved. It appears that there are a large number who wish to believe he is untouchable and any horse who gets close to him can only do so if he under performs. He is genuinely a horse without a hole, not only has he set the standard of performance but he has delivered that standard with incredible consistency - it is that which sets him apart, and that which makes him one of the best we have ever seen. Personally I believe the few blemishes on his record are explained by changes in the way the horse has been campaigned. The 2008 Betfair Bowl was IMHO the result of the trainer trying to leave plenty to work on as he believed he only had to beat trees and the run could simply be used as a stepping stone to the King George. Certainly he looked a different horse this year to the burly model I saw there in 2008. I believe his defeat to Monets Garden was the result of a similar trainer error. The defeat at Aintree in 2008 was the scar of one of the most brutal gold cups of any era - a race which flattened Denman. With those exceptions his performances have been remarkably consistent, and of the highest order. It is that consistency and the ability to outgun horses producing lifetime best performances that makes him truly exceptional - a one off.

Where I differ is that I think it is important to look at what the form tells us - not what his trainer says everytime a horse lays a hoof on him.

The race on Saturday probably was probably difficult for Phil Smith to rate, but in reality provides few practical problems. Imperial is not going to be rushing anywhere to try out his new handicap mark of 174, unless of course Mr Nicholls wants to enter Kauto off 186 and give us 12lbs ! The ratings he has given Kauto in the past would suggest he is broadly in agreement with my assumptions that Kauto is a model of consistency.

The race was run at a good pace - the first sign I would look for is how quickly the lowest rated horses started to struggle. In this case Seymour Weld (Rated 134) and Rambling Minster (Rated 149) who are decent horses in their own right were struggling after completion of the first circuit. By the middle of the back straight the alarm signals were out on three 160+ rated horses. In the end they finshed 24 lengths ahead of some very good horses.
The third and fourth horses were only seperated by a length and were kept fully extended all the way to the line.

To add to the visual evidence the time was 10 seconds quicker than the C&D handicap won by Shining Gale, rated 145 and considered well in off that mark by his trainer.

So the form would appear to have a very solid look, unless the form of the C&D handicap proves to have holes in it, and all of the horses in the Betfair other than the first two massively under performed it is difficult to see the holes. On previous ratings that would not appear to be the case - Madison De Berlais rated 17lbs lower than Kauto beaten 24 lengths, Halcon Genelardis rated 25lbs lower than Kauto beaten 25 lengths.

IMHO if as his trainer asserts Kauto improves dramtically for the run then his next run will have Phil Smith awarding him his highest mark ever.

The issue for Imperial is not whether he can produce that level of performance again, I have always known he was capable of it - but whether he can do it consistently, and I confess I have major doubts that he can. Add to that the gap of 5 weeks, the fact that RH does not particularly suit him and it is difficult to get enthusuastic about the King George. The important thing about the timing of the Lexus and the King George fit the bill - as we get a clear 12 weeks to prepare for Cheltenham. If for any reason we don't run in either it won't be the end of the world, but he likes to race, is still learning and improving and has only had eight races over fences. he should really still be a novice.
By:
Bobby Dazzler
When: 25 Nov 09 22:25
P.s Steeplechasing - I agree the Madison De Berlais "who ate all the pies" theory is his best yet - truly inspired madness
By:
fuzzyone
When: 25 Nov 09 22:28
Would you expect him to be ridden handy in the Gold Cup, taking his stamina to be assured or a change in tactics? I read that you said Paddy thinks he would get every yard of the trip but in your opinion would you see him being held up or allowed to bowl along?
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 25 Nov 09 22:33
Would simply have to be prominantly ridden and ridden as if getting the trip is a certainty.

Bobby, that was a top post. I don't agree with one or two things you've said, but its so good to read a part owners thoughts on a top horse and top horses.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 25 Nov 09 22:35
Yes enjoyed reading your post too BD... best of luck
By:
Bobby Dazzler
When: 25 Nov 09 22:36
Paddy liked the longer trip as he felt he could ride more of a race on him by letting him relax. Over the shorter trip he tends to get buzzed up and wants to be first to every fence - it will reallly depend who runs and how thhe pace of the race pans out. But first he has to stay fit please God !
By:
fuzzyone
When: 25 Nov 09 22:44
Absolutely B.D, the wellbeing of every horse is paramount and often it is too easy to forget how they put their health on the line every time they run. Best wishes to you and fingers crossed for the season and beyond.l.
By:
Steeplechasing
When: 25 Nov 09 23:19
Bobby, well done on Saturday - it was the noseband as much as the nose that beat you; since being fitted with it, KS has been almost flawless at his fences and I think there is a strong chance the sheepskin has made the real difference, rather than the spacing out of Kauto's races.

I'm sure you know my thoughts - I've bored people often enough on this forum with them - I believe he is a classic 21f Cheltenham 'chasing specialist. In your position, I'd probably opt for the Gold Cup, quite possibly your only chance of ever winning it.

But I'd be choosing with my heart, not my head. Paddy insists he stays; Nigel is bullish as ever. He might well stay, but will be at his most effective? He's a wonderful horse but he'd need to be a freak, imo, to reproduce, at the Gold Cup trip, that tactical pace, controlled power, exuberant fencing, fierce tenacity and appetite he shows over 2m 5f there.

If I could find the objectivity that was needed to force myself to look in the form book - where emotions and dreams don't count and everything is in black and white - I'd see that he's run in four steeplechases over 21f at Cheltenham and he's won them all, by an average of eight lengths. And I'd ask myself, do I want to make that five out of five? And I'd shut the book with a firm resolve to go the logical route.

But I'd lie awake that night thinking, who needs two Ryanair trophies? There is only one Chelteham Gold Cup. I only have one life and when I'm on my deathbed I don't want to be wondering 'Could he have won if we'd run?'

Good luck, whatever you decide. One certainty: this is going to be the most exciting, nerve-jangling winter you have ever lived through. I hope it''s a trouble-free one and that Imperial Commander lines up fit and ready to run for his life at Cheltenham.
By:
BarryM
When: 26 Nov 09 01:38
Interesting stuff guys, and I agree with most of it. I'm starting to come round to the idea that IC does stay and probably should go for the Gold Cup if nothing goes wrong in the meantime. Not sure I'd be taking on Denman at Christmas but I would want to test his stamina so might be tempted to go to Wetherby for the Rowland Merrick myself.

I think the idea that Kauto beat HG by 25l and therefore ran to his rating is clutching at straws a bit. HG has a rating based on his form at galloping tradcks over 4 miles or thereabouts. He's nothing like as good over an easy 3 and his presence that close casts a fair bit of doubt over the form for me, but I'm sure all the first three will improve for the outing.

Only thing I can't understand is why you all don't believe David Pipe that MDB needed the run. He's been tonked first time out every season of his career. Last year he was beaten 31 lengths in an ordinary handicap first time out, then won the Hennesy 3 weeks later. So write of the "he'll come on for the run" theory at your peril. He'll be seond to Kauto at Kempton imo.
By:
Julius Caesar ( JC 100 BC )
When: 26 Nov 09 05:44
As ever, some absolutely quality input from bobby. If only the forum as a whole conducted itself in the manner of the aforementioned it could flourish to be the most invaluable source of information relating to horseracing you could ever hope to find.

Nick does waver into the realms of wonderland with some of his remarks but generally, when taken at face value, and pound for pound, he is the one jounalist who I find, above all others, worthy of reading. Admitedly his somewhat bizarre and tangent thinking will alienate him from the masses but what he does do is bring an alternative view to the table.He is not always right but at least he has an opinion and it is posted in the public domain for all to scrutenise as they see fit.

I commented to bobby on another thread that imo Imperial Commander did not jump as well as he can on saturday and that being the case it only adds more plaudits to his effort imo. As has been outlined in detail by Nick and Bobby above this performance was of the highest quality whichever way you choose to interpret it and there is also an abundance of sense spoken thoughout the postings.

All I would add from a personal point of view is that I would like to see IC put away now and prepared solely for the big day in March. He has nothing to prove regarding his ability and this may be the season in which he could grab immortality.

Yes, it would be a big gamble regarding the training fees and other missed opportunities thoughout the season and you would be risking the fact that the NTD horses may have gone over the top by then but hey there is a massive prize at stake here and he has a fairly good shot at it so give him the best possible preparation you possibly can and there can be no regrets.

There is about to be a changing of the guard regarding the big players imo as Mr Mullins starts to prepare MDH for the forthcoming seasons so this may well be his biggest chance.

Good luck BD in whatever the plan transpires to be and I for one wish you all the luck in the world.

This ante post ticket with the name Imperial Commander on it has nothing whatsoever to do with that ;)
By:
zilzal1
When: 26 Nov 09 10:25
Some great stuff on here, if he were mine id be bypassing the KG as, on the face of it things dont really stack up in his favour. It appears that his form going right handed isnt in the same league as his left handed ones, he will be up against horses who have shown some of their best form around Kempton, two of which, Nacarat and MDB have shown that they both like to lead, and unless it comes up soft(cant remember Kempton getting that ground for king george day for a while) may not get his ground.

Best of luck Bobby in whatever you do though, great to hear thoughts of a owner who has a horse of this quality on here. I can only imagine being on the Rollercoaster
By:
top div
When: 26 Nov 09 10:49
Great thread lads - thoroughly enjoyed reading all of it.
By:
CVByrne
When: 26 Nov 09 22:53
just finished reading it myself. Top thread.
By:
Bobby Dazzler
When: 28 Nov 09 10:31
FRONTIER DANCER - A horse I bought for the Jump For Fun Racing Club which I co-run goes in the Gerry Feilden today - has strengthened a lot, intensive schooloing sessions seem to have paid dividends, and has done all of his work stride for stride with Imperial Commander - big step up in class but must have a great ew shout
By:
Julius Caesar ( JC 100 BC )
When: 28 Nov 09 14:28
Cracking effort Bobby. Thanks for the input :)
By:
Julius Caesar ( JC 100 BC )
When: 29 Nov 09 12:01
Is it the King George Bobby ?
By:
Bobby Dazzler
When: 29 Nov 09 22:19
Trainer seem intent on it - not so sure myself as I think he is nowhere near as good RH. Lexus ticks all the boxes for me - will wait to see the Lexus entries then discuss with trainer and rest of owners.
By:
BarryM
When: 29 Nov 09 23:04
With Denman out of the lexus it's a no-brainer now surely?
By:
Julius Caesar ( JC 100 BC )
When: 30 Nov 09 04:55
Lexus a far better option than the king george bobby but they are stiff old fences out there m8. He will have to jump better and the ground may be bottomless. Good Luck.
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 30 Nov 09 12:46
Having stiff fences is a plus for IC imo - his jumping is very good.

For me, after connections confirming Denman won't be going, its not even up for debate anymore. He simply must go for the Lexus to a track he'd enjoy and on ground he'd enjoy.
By:
Fastbearform
When: 30 Nov 09 18:26
A very good thread this re IC and KS. It was indeed a great race to watch and like most people, I thought IC had won.
However, I just can't be having Nick's comments on the speed figs, way off the mark imo, which is unusual for him.
I've been over and over this meeting and cannot award the inflated figures that NM gives to IC and KS.
To put it in perspective using NM's 'silly' speed fig scale, I can't award IC or KS more than 41 apiece for their runs in the betfair chase, with IC running a bit below his best and imvho, KS well below his best. Also, as most people realise, the official going description was totally innaccurate as well, which would account for the poor run of NP, on ground way quicker than he would have prefered.
I think it is 'likely' that KS will come on a bit for this run, and another King George win has to be a real possibility.
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 30 Nov 09 18:28
For once the going description was fine - it was soft ground. The times on the card alone tell us that. Notre Pere just wasnt good enough.
By:
Julius Caesar ( JC 100 BC )
When: 30 Nov 09 18:32
COKS.. While I agree that IC jumping is normally very good, I dont think he was at his best jumping wise at Haydock for whatever reason. I feel he will have to sharpen up that aspect of his game to win the lexus. GL.
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 30 Nov 09 18:32
I agree.
By:
Fastbearform
When: 30 Nov 09 18:47
Taken from Nick:

HALCON GENELARDAIS (37) ran a big race over a trip that was too short and on ground that was too fast. The going was clearly only barely good to soft rather than the heavy predicted only a day before as Kauto Star was only 9.3 seconds off the track record. I'd actually call it good to yielding. So it's not surprising this dour stayer was under pressure to keep up from a long way out.

It's unfortunate that the connections of NOTRE PERE (29) were misled by the inaccurate going reports into running their charge on ground that was too fast for him. It was inevitable he'd get outpaced over three miles on such a quick surface. He's dreadfully one-paced and needs really testing ground to pull him into a race.

I agree. ;)
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 30 Nov 09 18:52
Every chaser on show must have run way below their best then if the times are to be believed.
By:
Fastbearform
When: 30 Nov 09 19:02
Not really Coks, IC ran a little below his best on my figs, 91 against a 93 in the Ryanair and in the hurdle race, Starluck a 92 as opposed to a 91 at Cheltenham.
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 30 Nov 09 19:05
I had Kauto up to as much as 7lbs below his best, and obvously a new career best from IC, but when you compare the Betfair time to the other chase times on the card, its clear to see there just couldnt have been good in the description, otherwise Kauto run a whole lot more below form and IC hasnt improved at all. And I find both hard to believe.
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 30 Nov 09 19:06
Its all about opinions though ;-)
By:
Fastbearform
When: 30 Nov 09 19:19
I think at the mo, I tend to agree with what you said here Coks:

otherwise Kauto run a whole lot more below form and IC hasnt improved at all

Like you say, it's all about opinions, and there is nothing to say that IC should have improved that much. Still a great horse though, although I can't see him winning a Gold Cup, bearing in mind he runs best fresh and didn't (imo) improve from last season. I don't think he's a 3 miler at Grade 1 level.
By:
3753 Cruithne
When: 30 Nov 09 21:59
The ground was good to soft, the times of all the races bear that out. Mr Thriller's and Diamond Harry's races were both run in 0.54 seconds per furlong outside standard, that would be simply not possible on genuinely soft, nevermind heavy, ground.

FWIW, if Imperial Commander was mine there's no way I'd send him to Kempton, it'd be the Lexus or nothing.
Page 1 of 26  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 26 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com