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You're guessing he would have fared better in the lexus, just like connections guessed he would fare better in the KG.
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We're 'guessing' everyday with racing arent we?
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Yes, exactly, all racings is guessing, maybe educated guessing sometimes :)
I have no problem either with decisions being called wrong but mistakes happen. I'm sure with hindsight the trainer/owners may not have run him in the KG but coming on here proclaiming it was stupid is pretty ignorant imho. It was a wrong decision obviously with the benefit of hindsight but no proof any alternative would have worked any better. I agree with topdiv. |
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I could understand if you were having a go at me if I hadnt expressed my views before the event, but I did, and Bobby agreed with me, and so I feel the right to express my opinion further after ive been vindicated.
How this offends/annoys people not even connected with the animal is beyond me. If I was aftertiming, fair enough, but im not. |
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Ah fair enough Cokstar. Just maybe took the wording too literally.
I understand your point. Best of luck to all :) |
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Well said, you're a true sportsman Bobby.
Good job this forum exists, it's the only thing that's feeding my enthusiasm for NH at the moment. |
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To be clear my preference was always the Lexus, and with the benefit of hindsight it was clearly the smart option.
I blame myself for not going with my first instinct. But bear in mind that if you go back to the early Betfair / Ryanair threads that the call from most was he would never get three miles. To be fair I was probably alone even amongst my fellow owners in insisting he would. The rationale used to divert to the King George was clearly flawed, but for the record the thinking was - Both his attempts right handed left some uncertainty. The stables horses were all stopping suddenly when he did exactly the same in the King George last year, and Punchestown was unraceable, having walked sections of the track I was amazed it was even on, the back side of the track was under water. My worry was that his main problem was on the off side hock and that is the root cause of his under performance right handed. He schooled fine right handed in an indoor french school in the week prior to the race, and even our vet in Ireland could not confirm that with any certainty that the hock would prove a show stopper - so taking into account the wishes of the trainer we gave it another shot. There is only one King George and the Lexus is not it. The result was conclusive he won't be back at Kempton. In fairness he is not an easy horse to train, and criticism of NTD is unfair he has always looked after the horse. It seems to have been overlooked that he has cracked the enigma that is Khyber Kim when such an acknowledged genius as Nicky Henderson could not. If that had happened in reverse the press would be hailing Henderson from the top of the stands. It shouldn't be forgotten that he has only had nine races over fences, one when he finished lame in a novice at Cheltenham, last years KG, Punchestown and this years KG, which I accept fully was not the shrewdest call ever. He won four of the other five, and then there was the close call in the Betfair. If we can keep him fit I am convinced his best performances are still in front of him, and he is still not fully exposed. But he does take a bit of keeping fit - it is not the easiest of tasks. Personally I think he is significant value for the Gold Cup, not quite as good as last years heights (139 in the Paddy Power was truly a gift, & the weight of opinion behind VPU made the Ryanair price not far behind). This time we will stick to the plan and hopefully go there fresh and well - whatever happens he is an absolute joy to be involved with and his welfare will come before any of our hopes or dreams. He has given us so much already it seems greedy to ask for more. |
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Personally, I don't think IC would have got anywhere near What A Friend in the Lexus. Also, (and I'm putting my neck on the block here), I think if the ground is good, he'll come 3rd behind Chappers and the Barber if they both run. :0
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Bobby - terrific post, you are a star on this forum.
I agree regarding him being unexposed, and going there fresh on the day & in tip top form, he has a cracking chase. I have been backing him for a while. GL & great, honest, informative post. |
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Nice write up BD, thanks as always. I posted the same time as you, it wasn't a response to that. :)
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well said bobby your a top man imo your horse is a credit to you an your fellow owners best of luck with imperial,an NTD does a great job with his horses an he couldnt be in safer hands.
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Interesting view Fast Bear, Personally I think the Lexus form is so poor it is beyond belief for a Grade 1. Money Trix is progressive, but I have seen all of his six starts over fences prior to the Lexus in the flesh, the form of none of those races has worked out and Grade 1 winner he will never be. He was closing with every stride another 25 yards and he wins. He struggled to win a grade 2 handicap off his mark of 149 at Kelso Even if he put up a significant career best then the form is still way below any acceptable level expected in a Grade 1 chase - isn't it ?
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Great write up Bobby.
Can see why you're kicking yourself about the Lexus, though I think a change of tactics on Joncol would've seen him win well, looked like he was gonna win 10L coming to the last. Hennesy will be an interesting race with a change of tactics, and a fully fit Cooldine. |
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It's all about views BD and I always look to find something to beat the obvious when I'm betting. IC will always be special to me from a betting viewpoint because he was partly responsible for me winning so much money at the festival last year. I can't let my heart rule my head though and I have to assess things as I see them this year. I think as always, some horses have improved and some have not. I still think IC should go for the Ryanair again because if I'm wrong (which I am most of the time) then he has the race at his mercy.
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Hi Fastbear - agree entirely about opinions, thats what makes this game so addictive. Always interested to look at alternative points of view, I find it is always dangerous to close your mind. Thats why I was interested in how you read the Lexus form.
I have followed Joncol closely as I have Definitive Edge with Willie Mullins, (Joncol beat him in a bumper at Thurles on his debut), and I had Bobby Dazzler who was also by Bob's return and could have been anything over fences. I think Joncol will prove to have a very limited profile, best short of three miles and heavy ground essential. He is still only seven and may buck the trend but the Lexus run seems to support that view. Rated through Money Trix the race doesn't seem to add up. What A Friend got 22 lbs off Denman and was beaten 3 1/2 lengths, I was also interested in Paul Nicholls post race comments when he said he thought it looked a poor race hence supplementing WAF, but that he saw little point in WAF going for the Gold Cup as he couldn't compete with Denman or Kauto. |
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The Lexus was a very poor race timewise, but I will go with a view that WAF didn't need to run anywhere near his best to win. I am sure the spd fig I gave him in the Hennessy will hold up in time. The horse did all it needed to do and I am sure that with a stronger pace may well have won by more. The horse is a difficult ride I believe, but always produces a good performance. PN is right not to run the horse at Cheltenham as I think he may well not like the place, and why bother when you know you have Kauto and Denman? Mind you, there wouldn't be any harm in trying him again at Cheltenham at some stage, just to see. It may well have been other factors last year that saw him run poorly.
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Bobby - will FD run in the Lanzaeote if it goes ahead? Ta.
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Lanzarote*
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Hi Downallstar,
He will go for the Grade 2 Handicap at Ascot on the 23rd (Victor Chandler), and if Khyber Kim goes for the Tote Gold Trophy he could also appear there I would think. Poor horse is bouncing off the walls, just nothing for him at present. Keeping him over hurdles this year is a sound move - he will be a lovely novice chaser in the Autumn. |
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Bobby Dazzler 11 Jan 13:58
To be clear my preference was always the Lexus, and with the benefit of hindsight it was clearly the smart option. Top post Bobby, but I just have to disagree with your above statement. I dont think hindsight has to come into it, as the smart option was always the Lexus. as some, including yourself, stated beforehand. You are spot on about the form of that race imo, and IC would have won it comfortably. However I think WAF was at least half a stone (possibly more) below his best as I think he's better when fresher. And just to be clear, I think NTD is a top rainer and has done a wonderful job over the last few years. Your example of KK is again spot on. My criticism was of his decision making/race placement, possibly due to his bullish attitude in thinking he would beat Kauto at Kempton, and maybe criticism of one or two part owners for not overruling him. I think IC should wait one more year for the Gold Cup. Although his price is nothing short of ludicrous and it should be halved, he should stay and loves Cheltenham, I think the chances of him beating Kauto/Denman are so much less than beating Barbers Shop that he should take one more Ryanair, then come after Kauto and Denman next year when he is at his peak and Kauto and Denman will almost certainly be past theirs. |
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Gold Cup all the way IMO. Cheltenham factor and freshness could see him run a massive race.
The 2010 renewal (if the big two get there in one piece) will be one of the great races of all time and repeated endlessly in years to come, if I owned a horse that had some sort of chance of being in the shake up (and IC does) then I want to be part of it. One life...... |
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Cheers Bobby.
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Great input as ever Bobby.. Heres hoping ;)
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Tom reads the threads :D
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tom posts on here
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Like most people I thought the Lexus was the better option, but only because I didn't see the point of taking on Kauto again before the Gold Cup. It may even turn out to be a blessing that he dropped out of contention in the KG and avoided another battle with Kauto, too many can break their hearts.
I don't go along with the consensus that the KG proves the lexus was the better option. The lexus probably proves it was the better option in terms of being the best chance of winning a grade one, but of course if the KG means a lot more to the owners then they are perfectly entitled to go for it. I just don't see at all how the "he doesn't act right handed" view has been sustained. Jury is very much still out for me, though from Bobby's helpful post I guess it will not get another chance to deliver a verdict. But my take is simple - he rooted the second fence and almost came to a standstill, then lost his confidence and jumped very hesitantly for the next circuit or so. If he does that at Cheltenham he'll get stuffed too, or fall, you can't win top class chases without jumping the fences. And I'm not criticisng the horse here at all, he's normally a great jumper. But I stand by the view that last year he jumped great and whizzed round the bends as well as anything at Kempton, until getting stopped dead by the traditional mid-season virus at NTD's yard. Can't blame the track for either defat imo, though there's some merit to the view that when a horse has had a couple of bad experiences somewhere it may be better not to go back. Following this year's KG I am now more convinced about his stamina, I was quite impressed by the way he fought back from a hopless position, although of course his finishing position was way below his best form. He's the only conceivable danger to the big two imo, so I wish him and the owners the best of luck. Will be surprised if he finishes better than third, but not totally shocked, and in any case a decent third makes him just about favourite for next year. |
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Bobby.... You got any thoughts on why NTDs horses completely lose their form at this time of year m8 ?
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Hi Julius,
Several thoughts - with the exception of last year and this I think the problem has always been over hyped - NTD has never had the ammunition in depth to remain competitive all the way through the season. He has always had his horses fitter than many of the other trainers at the early end of the season which has resulted in the stromng early season form. by mid-season he has usually had horses handicapped to the hilt trying to compete against stronger opposition. He is the jumps equivalent of Mark Johnson and the horses are "always trying". Essentially the better novices have won and carry penalties and the bumper horses have all been fired by the middle of the season. At the end of the season the better horses have produced a resurgence in form, usually by winning one or two feature races rather than by hitting the number of winners that he does early in the season. Last year I believe the problem was feed related. I think you have just seen how it works in the Alan King yard. The problem with feed related issues is that the trainers usual weapon (scoping) shows nothing so there is a tendency to plough on regardless. It takes several weeks for the deficiency to work it way in as the mineral and vitamin deficiencies in the horse are gradual. So winners dont stop overnight they just gradually fade. By the time it is recognised, food changed and supplements provded it takes several weeks for the levels to build up again. This year I think we are seeing the same on a lesser scale. I also think the break has not helped because a lot of the horses are pulling hard after the weather enforced break, burning energy and exaggerating the effect of the deficiency. Working out where you are in the cycle is the difficult thing - since the 17th January when we resumed he has had 22 runners, 5 places, 1 winner which is not a total disaster, but the question is are we heading up or down. I would stress this is a personal view, I am sure the official view would be there is no problem. |
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An excellent & enlightening post, BD.
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Interesting view BD. Thankyou for your input.
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so it's all systems go for the Gold Cup is it? Can't be swayed by the 'easy' money in the Ryanair?
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Never about the money Reyes, he deserves his chance to take his place in the Gold Cup
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That he does Bobby
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Well done Bobby... Lets just hope he gets there in one piece. I really dont think he is that far behind the top two so bring it on.
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well i wish you all the best bobby - but can't help but think you've made the wrong decision!
gl. |
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There's only one Gold Cup! GL.
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Going well at the moment apart from a slightly cloudy scope. But no bacteria so shouldn't be a problem, looks a picture and work is top class. Will have a racecourse gallop (probably Newbury) about a fortnight before and then straight there
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Would be great to be the party pooper in this instance Bobby :D Good Luck.
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bobby.....you still planning to run your other horse in the TGT ?
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Yes Trev W he is a definate starter in the TGT
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