|
By:
420 Wolv
Bets loaded early this morning. Desert 2.76 av odds matched 5 times Oriental matched 4.8 once Bavarica matched 6.6 once. This gives me 13.56 red on the fave +4.18 on Oriental +0.76 on Bavarica +13.31 the rest |
|
By:
So regardless of the result, it's nearly evens the favourite versus rest of unlayed field - nice!
Don't get me wrong, there will be days or weeks when every major steamer romps home, two years ago I went through a period of months (remember when favourites won everything everywhere?) I sure do. I was advised to reverse tactics and it cost me dearly, because as luck would have it the day I was finally convinced was the day all the shorties failed. I never second guessed myself again. It cost me plenty and was a lesson well learned. |
|
By:
There ya go ;)
|
|
By:
Yup,a clean strike lol. I'm still not convinced I had a value bet tho.The odds on Oriental and Bavarica were definately in my favour,but with the smallest stakes.The odds were against me on the Fave I feel,and thats where my largest bet was.
Incidentally,do you lay to a fixed backers stake of each pprice offered,or to a fixed liability ? |
|
By:
BTO
I' m sure we are on the same wavelength i.e its a numbers game,haven't a clue if the horse stays 2 miles or only has 3 legs. I wish I'd paid more attention in maths classes now. |
|
By:
I don't lay to fixed stake nor liability, I lay to payout the same amount on each matched lay.
Again you are looking at the individual odds of each horse rather than the book percentage. To put it another way, $2.76 was not your average odds on the fave, because you had more exposure on at least three of the five matched bets. You effectively had more money at lower prices, than what the Betfair site can tell you. That's the trap with the My Account Summary, it doesn't take into account your position, it only takes into account each single entity, so averages are out of whack with reality. |
|
By:
I just took a £2 bet on each price 3.3,2.92,2.72,2.52and 2.32.(av 2.76)
I can understand that taking bigger bets on the shorter prices would bring the average odds down. I'll change my staking when I try again. Cheers for your help,much appreciated. |
|
By:
Got it in one, it is a numbers game, that's why in New York the mafia called it a numbers racket. It started out as a pools type situation and leaked over into horse racing and illegal SP bookies in the States.
But anyway, another example: You have $100 @ $2.00 and $100 @ $1.50 Average odds are $1.75 You have $50 @ $2.00 and $100 @ $1.50 Average odds are $1.67 Because $50 of liability is taken away by your other horses matched. |
|
By:
5.20 Wolves
Took £12 on the fave (fixed payout) and £2.75 on Lunar at 11/2. Lunar wins at 7/1,so I had value on that,but lost £2 on the race.It's no good trying this in the last 10 mins before the race,simply not getting enough horses or bets matched to call it a "book. What was your position on the 5.20 BTO ? |
|
By:
tame --you best bet mate , is covering your balance up and review it every month .
|
|
By:
Yeah I know its a long term game.I'll be skint before the end of the month anyway.
|
|
By:
Did u run this today Zealot ? If so,how's it gone for you ?
|
|
By:
BTO! I don't post often but your agile mind and generosity of spirit is most refreshing, particularly at this time of year. So very different from some mean minded individuals who are paranoid about protecting their "sytems"and post sarcastic and negative remarks. May you continue to prosper!
|
|
By:
Tame the tiger
Im glad your showing as much interest in this as i am although im not thick i am finding it quite hard to follow. All i can say is Beat knows his stuff. Keep asking until youve nailed it as its helping me as well! May i suggest you read some of his older threads as they r very good. Following his advice i didnt have one losing race today,although that is rare but for me it seems to b working. But for it to work u must stick at it as he says. gl |
|
By:
Agree its very interesting. Just reading through the thread it does take a bit of getting your head round it.
TTT, when you did the morning bets what did you use as your guide price. Was it best available at any book or did you just use one ? |
|
By:
Tame the tiger
Im glad your showing as much interest in this as i am although im not thick i am finding it quite hard to follow. All i can say is Beat knows his stuff. Keep asking until youve nailed it as its helping me as well! May i suggest you read some of his older threads as they r very good. Following his advice i didnt have one losing race today,although that is rare but for me it seems to b working. But for it to work u must stick at it as he says. gl Hello Moon. I'm very interested in this as its similar to something I do,but so far the vast riches have eluded me.I haven't quite got it sussed. How many races did u do today ? When did you load up your bets ? I've read(and posted)on most of the threads BTO appears on.He does appear to know his stuff,which is why I look out for his postings.I almost stalk him.It's uncanny how he always seems to be doing stuff I'm doing,but better apparantly. |
|
By:
Hi Donnie,
I loaded up 2 races last night from one bookies prices.Kawagino was 10/1 last night,returned 9/2,so that was what buggered me up today. |
|
By:
Thats where i've been reading it wrong.I was thinking price to compare was opening show on the track ie about 10 mins to off.Makes more sense to load up possible lays early say 10am or so when most early prices are up.Will give it more thought now in readiness for tomorrow.
|
|
By:
I thought it was opening show at the track too at first...thats how I played the races I did yesterday.
|
|
By:
TTT
Firstly im talking about his old system just to clarify. Idid every race at plumptonand the first few races at wolves. I got matched on every race and put the lays in running. Regarding the new method i thought he layed the ones that had com ih from opening morning offers if im correct |
|
By:
THis isnt easy to get right and it isa boring and a slow bank buider with losing runs and you dont always get matched unless you leave the bet it too long which is wrong
|
|
By:
My typings bloody rubbish
|
|
By:
am i missing somethink .is he backing and lay . how is it working
|
|
By:
Andy1963
Just read Bto's posts on this thread.He tells u exactly what he's doing. 1963 was a good year for me too ! |
|
By:
Moon65
How long have you been doing "the old method" ? This new one probably takes abt an hour and a half to load every race ! ffs |
|
By:
thanks
|
|
By:
BTO
So...Your first lay on each horse is 10 ticks below bookies openers ? NOT 5% below bookies openers ? 8/1 first lay offered is 7.0 ? 6/1 first lay is 5.5 ? etc These are the prices I've played at for the last few months.The difference between you and me is that you also lay again lower (I was too scared) and you load them in the mornings,whereas I just worked from first track show.I had long winning streaks,and also losing streaks.I came out ahead,but only just,so not worthwhile.I was about to knock it on the head (actually withdrew my bank) when I read your posts on this thread.Maybe the subtle differences are the key. I'm off to do my bank...good luck to you all. |
|
By:
must be missing somethink here
|
|
By:
wassup andy ?
|
|
By:
is he waiting for them to go out and then backing them .or am i not looking at it right .
|
|
By:
You're not looking at it right.
Check the early odds,put in a LAY 10 ticks below theses odds.Then another LAY 10 more ticks below etc up to 5 LAYS altogether.(if you dare) e.g BLACK BEAUTY 4/1 so put lays in at 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6. Sit back,relax,enjoy the profits.Allegedly. |
|
By:
i will stick to my corners on football .alot easyer. laying 9 corners or laying 13
|
|
By:
Beat, have you ever read Motley fools? Their principle for buying shares seems similar, for example a share price:
Fluctuates over the a year from 2.5 to 10 and its average is 6.25 (half way) You buy 10 quids worth each month for 4 months: price £10, you buy 1 share price £5, you buy 2 shares price £2.5, you buy 4 shares price £5, you buy 2 shares so you have 9 shares spending 40 quid, therefore you effectively own shares at: £4.40, i.e below the average. If i recall correctly the principle is to maintain the same outlay even when the price is falling, i.e you buy even when the market is selling. Of course a company can go bankrupt leaving you with zero but its as likely they price will rocket, so bet/buy with a staking plan. |
|
By:
Check the early odds,put in a LAY 10 ticks below theses odds.Then another LAY 10 more ticks below etc up to 5 LAYS altogether.(if you dare)
e.g BLACK BEAUTY 4/1 so put lays in at 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6. Sit back,relax,enjoy the profits.Allegedly. That's exactly right. It takes me two hours to set up a full days racing using Gruss Betting Assistant. Also I didn't just pluck 10 ticks out of the air. I looked at every single steamer for months and worked out the average breakeven price covering commission on each price band. 10 ticks below EARLY opening price such as Paddy Power, is breakeven. That's why anything below this is breakeven, but you want as many horses matched as possible. The stockmarket analogy is similar, only I'm using a book percentage. So when comparing odds layed against the exchange, look at book% not horse average odds. |
|
By:
oops, I'll restate:
That's why anything below this is profit, but you want as many horses matched as possible. Bad typo mistake |
|
By:
BTO, A couple of questions if you dont mind answering. When you said earlier 1% of bank max per horse do you mean 1% per price lay ie poss. 5 times per horse or is it 1% divided by 5 poss. lays per horse.
Also what do you do if say 1 horse gets matched maybe 4 or5 times but none of the other horses are matched. Just let it ride or try to reduce your liability at lower odds to reduce the hit? Thanks. |
|
By:
Thats a good question Donnie.I would imagine that only one being matched is a regular occurance.Ican't see many being matched 4-5 times either.5/1 into 2/1 is 4 matches.That dont happen often.As is 7/1 into 5/2.
I'd agree that 10 ticks below is break even,as that's what I've been doing roughly for a few months now. I don't know how long BTO has been doing this,but he'll know more than me. We can only give it a go and see. |
|
By:
TTT, I was thinking the same.Seems a lot of time putting in loads of lays that will almost never be taken.And on the occasion when they do, probably no other horses will have been matched and you are possibly big red on maybe a gamble from 7/1 to 2/1.Temptation would be to try and dump some of it even though it would probably be the wrong thing to do as we know they dont all win.
|
|
By:
And having layed a 7/1 at 5,4 and again at 3/1,backing it back at say 5/2 would reduce the liability,but effectively increase the average odds layed at.
|
|
By:
So would it be better to just put in say 3 lays? Less time putting the bets on and more realistic chance of them actually being taken and having a lesser liability if only 1 runner is matched
|