|
By:
The 4.55 race I did not stop at 2 bets.I loaded the third on each but odds did not drop sufficiently enough to be taken.
|
|
By:
Hi Brian,
Yes with this approach all bets cancel at the off. |
|
By:
This really isn't something you can do so close to the off.
All my lays go in very early to take advantage of any movements plus late movements. Because you'll find a lot of horses, aside from strong firmers or strong drifters, will actually ping pong in price, so you're missing out on these horses as well. |
|
By:
5.25 Kempton
Fernando opened 3.25,matched at 3.1 and 2.84. Lucky opened 9.0, matched 8.6 and 6.6 Fernando average matched at 2.97, SP 2.62 Lucky average matched at 7.6,SP 6.0. One and a half points higher than SP ! |
|
By:
All my lays went in as soon as opening show prices were revealed approx 10 mins before the race.
Or do you look at a particular bookies odds on the morning of the race ? |
|
By:
Some examples:
Bookie opens $2.00 My lays $1.90 $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 Bookie opens $5.00 My lays $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.80 $2.60 etc etc etc. Do it early enough in betting on all races and tally up the profit ;) |
|
By:
Paddy Power open betting early
|
|
By:
If a horse opens at 5/1 and drifts to 7/1,then comes back in to 5/1,you're happy to beat the 7/1 odds,probably getting matched at 6/1.(i.e actually over opening show and SP,but under TF) ?
|
|
By:
thanks for replying
so u lay every horse that firms in the betting. u lay as early as you can. can you do it upto say 2 hours b4 racing starts? you r trying to beat industry sp as b4 in your other method. wots yor max price if any? obviuosly these horses are backed in cos they r fancied to win the race but i presume enough of them lose to make it worthwhile. your comments would b appreciated thanks |
|
By:
What about where there is no obvious favourite ?
|
|
By:
TameTheTiger 14 Dec 05:02
If a horse opens at 5/1 and drifts to 7/1,then comes back in to 5/1,you're happy to beat the 7/1 odds,probably getting matched at 6/1.(i.e actually over opening show and SP,but under TF) ? That's spot on. moon65 14 Dec 06:17 thanks for replying so u lay every horse that firms in the betting. u lay as early as you can. can you do it upto say 2 hours b4 racing starts? you r trying to beat industry sp as b4 in your other method. wots yor max price if any? obviously these horses are backed in cos they r fancied to win the race but i presume enough of them lose to make it worthwhile. your comments would b appreciated thanks I lay every horse as outlined that opens less than 9/1 I'm not trying to beat industry SP, I'm trying to lay significantly lower than top fluctuation on one horse. The other horses matched will have less exposure than the solid firmer. It doesn't always work out higher than industry SP either, many times I've layed well below even industry SP because early money came for something, but then in the last 10 minutes money came for another horse. If it's not really clear, flip it in reverse. Just take one full day's racing and note down the prices of say Paddy Power. What happens if you had backed only the favourites that were firmers at top fluctuation? What happens if you back all firmers at top fluctuation? To save you from getting carpel tunnel (??) you'd actually win money IF they were all legitimate firmers. This is why bookies ban people who only back firmers from the track before they get to move on them. (The corporates I'm talking about). 10 ticks below top fluctuation takes care of commission and the backing profit, any horse that gets matched below that, is in the bookies (your) favour. Following this strategy to the letter, to payout the same amount on every horse, it's a sold 120% ROI each and every month. After paying commission. There will be days when everything goes against you, sequences of days when it all goes the punters way, but every trough is balanced out by a peak sooner or later. |
|
By:
That should have read solid ROI, not sold lol
|
|
By:
So the next question will be why not take Betfair SP on just all firmers?
This will not work. Thanks to our trading friends, often I have heavily supported favourites well below the final BFSP. |
|
By:
bto - call me a bit stupid but dont follow 100% -so if a 5 horse race opens up at the following prices ;-
6/4 5/2 3/1 6/1 10/1 what would be your strategy ? thanks |
|
By:
O.K. Exactly step by step.
Firstly I'll convert fractions to decimal, to make it easier. 6/4 = $2.50 5/2 = $3.50 3/1 = $4 6/1 = $7 10/1 = $11 I omit horses that open $10 or over, so it's down to 4 runners. On each of the remaining runners I lay to payout 1% of my bank, this is the absolute maximum. On the $2.50 shot: I offer $2.30, $2.10, $1.95, $1.85 and $1.75 On the $3.50 shot: I offer $3.00, $2.80, $2.60, $2.40 and $2.20 On the $4.00 shot: I offer $3.50, $3.00, $2.80, $2.60 and $2.40 On the $7.00 shot: I offer $5.50, $4.50, $3.75, $3.25 and $2.90 I will only get matched on some lays. Don't just look at the average price you layed at for one runner, this can be misleading, you need to factor in why this works. Bets matched on other runners lower the average odds layed of the runner with the greatest exposure. |
|
By:
thanks very much bto .
seems very logical - might give it a whirl . |
|
By:
Just be aware that days will go against you, but the odds are on your side.
You need discipline and patience, the rest takes care of itself. I wish you all the best with it. |
|
By:
cheers bto .
what part of australia you live in matey ? |
|
By:
Melbourne.
|
|
By:
ha -million miles away in liverpool ( england )
thanks mate - good luck |
|
By:
Thanks again for taking time out to explain as you dont need to.
Ive noticed the prices offered are quite alot lower than industry prices i thought you might lay a bit higher. Ive also dabbled with just laying the fav in running at slightly lower odds in running as these seem to get overbet any opion welcome on this if you dont mind |
|
By:
BTO your system sounds like an awful lot of setting up for each race every day
|
|
By:
Yes, that works too.
But cancel your lays if they don't get matched early, the longer it takes to get matched, the closer to true odds you're laying at. For a 2 mile hurdle, 30 seconds is the maximum, don't hold on just because the price is very close to being matched. A minute in, is too long. And ask for something likely to get matched. When I was running this approach, often I'd be matched as soon as or just as betting was suspended and unsuspended to in running. In particular this approach is best suited to heavy odds on favourites that don't have much opposition in the market. |
|
By:
werbie,
It is! It's also as boring as bat** ;) It's robotic monotony. I try and cover as many races as possible, because I'm very used to it. And the more turnover the better, along with lower peaks and troughs. (one result or two won't make or break the day). However, I would do one venue per day until I got the hang of it. Believe it or not, I actually used to do the whole fleld manually for every race. I soon realised looking at my figures that I only need to cover the top end of the market, much to my relief! It didn't add very much value to the bottom line in terms of dollars. So wasn't worth the extra effort. |
|
By:
So basically its all about laying at the right price whether b4 they run or in running and the diff ways you can do it
cheers for your help |
|
By:
Yes, but the two are quite seperate strategies.
Personally I prefer the pre race, because being in Australia, I can spend two hours setting up the days races and go to bed. I then get up and do Australian races in exactly the same way. |
|
By:
hiya beat to
been thinking of this one for a while now , what u reckon ? in races under a mile , if there are a few front runners in the line up , ensuring a fast pace and usually favouring those held up , put lays in for each of these setting the pace and cancel within the first 10 secs ( matched or not ) . if they dont lead they prob dont get matched . any views ? |
|
By:
well the in running way seems to be working ok so i will give this new one ago and c how it goes
|
|
By:
I just love the fact your not pouring over form figures/sire stats/jockey form/trainer form etc only to find a horse to lay then it wins.
|
|
By:
Fav layers in clover today so far.
|
|
By:
Surely just laying one horse a race, under opening show minus comm ,would work the same in thoery ?
Just done the 235Plum from this mornings odd,got hammered by the well backed winner. |
|
By:
Yes i agree but youve still got to pick the horse to lose and i know from experience they normally win!
gl |
|
By:
Just lay the steamer 1 min b4 the off,assuming you can get matched at under openers
|
|
By:
there are many ways to win --ill discipline is the bigget loser .
|
|
By:
I would presume very late money can b more accurate than late money but beat might have a better view
|
|
By:
sorry that should say late money than early money
DOH |
|
By:
340 Charlotte Street is the steamer.Opened 9/1 now 5/1.Can get 6.6 on BF at the mo
|
|
By:
Surely just laying one horse a race, under opening show minus comm ,would work the same in thoery ?
Just done the 235Plum from this mornings odd,got hammered by the well backed winner. Actually it's not the same to be honest. Think of it like a bookmaker, only the horses matched are the only one's in the field. I know they aren't, but for the sake of working it out bear with me. Take one horse straight out, your average price layed at is somewhere between the first price and last price. As you are laying to payout the same amount, you are laying just below the average. Now consider you get matched on two horses one horse twice and another horse four times. The liability of the money matched twice on one horse drags down the exposure on the other. So firstly, your exposure or liability is greater taking one horse only, especially if it's crunched in betting. Secondly, lets say you have two horses. Horse A you get matched @ $2.00 average odds to payout $200 Horse B you get matched @ $4.00 average odds to payout $100 If you take only horse A, your liability is $100 If bets on Horse A and B are taken as suggested, your liability is only $75.00 and you still stand to win $25 on the other horse. Our book percentage is only 50% taking one horse. Our book percentage is is 75% taking two horses. Therefore if your liability is reduced on the first couple of bets, your bigger stake is at lower odds, lowering the average price layed of your main horse. |
|
By:
You want to get as many horses matched for as much as you can (within the rules) which is why I start early. This means that the greatest exposure is on the horse that steams the most, but you don't get hammered if it salutes, and your price is effectively lower.
If you only want to take one horse, then you need to dig a lot deeper than ten ticks and limit your exposure imho. |
|
By:
Also one more, you won't get the benefit of value as horses that seesaw in price. or early money but then it changes late etc etc.
That's all part of the framework of why it's so effective. Otherwise you may as well lay the biggest steamer at SP, but you can't make money from that consistently, there's no edge. Some steamers are value, some are not, and in the respect of a race situation, if there are three or four steamers, only one can win. And that's what is relied upon in making half a book. Don't think of average prices, think in terms of book percentage and exposure. The higher the book percentage, the better off you are. |