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A £500 bank is plenty if you stick at it.
Mr Beat is so open about this cos he knows hardly anyone will stick at it. Ive been doing my stuff all day and im about level but yesterday i was nicely up. Its very hard to stick with thats why ive got a seperate bank to do other things. gl |
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Do you think so ? It was scary enough taking a £10 bet on Meridian City.It should still be effective,though not AS effective ???
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Matched twice on County Colours 3.20 Catt.I wouldn't have the balls to do £16 payout twice lol
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Her are my matched lays from earlier today. My plan was to to lay to a payout of £13 per lay.
12.50 Catt. Jim Tango matched at 3.75 -£9.52 12.40 Swell. Marjoly 3.0 +£4.13 and 2.8 +£4.42 12.20 Catt Hernando Cortes 6.0 +£2.06 13.10 Swell Bel Cantor 5.5 +£2.25 Colorus 5.3 +£2.33 |
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After spending much of yesterday evening reading and re-reading this thread I decided to play in one race today.
13.50 Catt Working on PPower prices at about 9.30 the following qualified Youngstown 5.0 Superbaby 6.0 Star Beat 6.0 Coldwells 6.5 Le Vert Galant 8.0 I was matched in laying the follwing all at £2------ Youngstown(x3) 4.7,4.4,4.1 Star Beat(x5) 5.7,5.4,5.1,4.8,4.5 Coldwells (x1)6.0 Ok I lost about £7.40 on the race which is ok because I can see the gist of the argument, although it did make me nervous laying Star Beat to the maximum 5 times. 1. I used the same £2 lay at all prices. Should I have increased my lay as the price kept dropping? 2.Is any race suitable or are there particular betting markets which are best? Presumably races which have 3 or more horses below 10/1. 3. Is an early price morning fav 4/1 too big or is it better to find races with a shorter fav say 6/4--3/1? |
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Stupac,there should be 10 tick increments between each price you offer.E.G Star Beat should not have been layed 5 times !
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My bets on Meridian City,comparing fixed backers stake,to fixed payout.
fixed stake of £2 meant £9.50 profit or £19.56 loss Average odds 3.05 fixed payout would have been £26.21 profit or £52.38 loss Average odds 2.99 So the odds do get shorter,but not by enough margin to have a serious effect on the profitability. Should my bank ever grow to a size capable of withstanding a £52.38 loss,then I'll go with fixed payout.Profits will be smaller,but there will still be profit.And less heart attacks. |
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Yes I was using increments for a much lower price. Clearly like everything else discipline is the key. When the top horse drifted markedly I was tempted to trade out but the effect on the other horses layed would be huge. as it happens it won but thats not the point. BTO is lucky enough to go to bed so his karma isnt disturbed. The temptation to meddle with the bet needs to be resisted.
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1240 S MARJOLLY 3 BETS +570
140 S ELUSIVE 1 BET +190 210 S LOST SOLDIER 1 BET +190 240 S MUSTAJED 2 BETS +380 TOTAL +1330 All bets loaded 10 mins b4 off based on opening track show 1250 C JIM TANGO 2 BETS -1100 120 C MERIDIAN 5 BETS SAVIERO 1 BET +1140 150 C COLDWELLS 1 BET STAR BEAT 1 BET +380 320 C COUNTY COLOURS 2 BETS +380 TOTAL +800 All bets loaded 9.30,though none were matched more than 10 mins before the off,so no ping-pongs today. Total profit on £2 lays is £21.30 |
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Laying every fav in every race cannot work ..... why 33% of the buggers win .
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Over to you Tightfisted ...... Mr Stats Man .Zip
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Backing every fav in every race .. you would not have a pot to ** in ... or make that wee .... if it gets blocked ....
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It all bout beening selective .. with faith in yourself ... cause gambling is a very lonely world .... you V them .
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Betfair should have a seperate forum that is monitored in some way to stop **s like you ruining decent threads.
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remember zipper on .laying al keytes naps ..
what a plank :^0 |
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well done today tame ,
great when you follow something strategically and it works , i know its early days but i think bto is a genuine fella and i believe him 100% |
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Hi BTO, I am trying something similar and just wondered if you've found a shortcut for keying in multiple lays into the market like this. I've got various trading platofrms but the main Betfair site seems easiest?
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10 tick increments lower than your highest priced Lay doesn't make sense. If its OK to LAY at 5.0 and then same selection 10 increments lower at 4.0 as the next LAY, what about the increments inbetween !! Surely it must be profitable at 4.9, 4.8, 4.7 etc !!!
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Glasgow Brain .. zipper never said lay all AKs naps if you go back to the thread . you will see zip said lay, some back, some leave some alone ... same with all the nap boys ..... think it was Unionjack who layed them all and he went bust ....
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Mudflaps,
I use Gruss Betting Assistant, pretty cheap price for what you get. It enables one click betting to payout a set amount, so it's faster than the site. Vic, Average price, exposure. |
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this might of been mentioned elsewhere but say u put your bets on at 10.00 and only a few bets r matched and then a non runner appears would all your outstanding unmatched bets be cancelled
would u have to b looking every hour or so just to make sure your bets r still in place or does a software do this four u cheers |
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Purr at 10.am .. you will only be match with the dead meat ........
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Going off topic slightly, would there be any mileage in backing the favourite in a football match using the keep bets option at say 10/15% above kick off price.
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no
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care to elabourate zealot?
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"Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?"
Price, price and price again. |
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^
and commission |
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How are you guys doing with this, it's been very quiet?
I'm letting you know that I have tweaked it a little. There are upsides and downsides to the tweaks, I am now using live shows from the track in exactly the same way, I don't get matched on as many, but I'm also not as caught out by big tumblers from morning lines. The other way works just as well, but I'm getting good results with this. |
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Hello BTO.
Following a good first day,I've only been treading water since. I don't have the time to load all races early,so I've just done one meeting early doors at a bookies odds,and the rest of the days races using the live track shows around 10 mins before the off.There doesn't appear to much difference between the two methods in the quantity that is getting matched.I would say 95% of matches come in the final 10 mins of betting. However,I've noticed from the 50 races I've been matched in,there could be a pattern emerging,i.e some of the bets are consistant losers and some are consistant winners,so I'll be keeping an eye on that. Doesn't using the live track shows mean you have to be up all night though ? |
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I havent tried it yet
Im quite happy doing your old method at the moment which i also adjust now and again. gl |
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Hello moon.
Can I ask you,for the old method you are doing,what bets would you load on a 4/1 shot ? |
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I personally put in a lay at 3.75
If its a longer race i would also put in another lay for half my stake at 3.55 once the 1st one has been matched. Imust add Mr beat has never suggested doing the 2nd part but it works for me as you obviuosly bringing the combined lay odds even more in your favour and the market gets it wrong more times than not. please try it today for small stakes id love to know how you get on im also trying something else which id let you know about by email if your in if your interested but wont b for awhile till im happy with it gl |
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On a 4/1( i.e Betfairs odds 5.0,) you put 3.75 or 4.75 ?
3.75 seems very low and couldn't envisage many getting matched at those odds ? |
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sorry trying to do 2 things at once when i replied!
I put a lay bet in at 4.75 then 4.5 on the same horse cheers |
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Thanks and gl
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I've been doing most races and have had one good day and 3 bad so far.Seem to be getting hit mostly on the all weather meetings with a few succesful gambles going against me.What I do is rather than load all races with 5 lays, to save time I put the first lay in and if/when that gets taken, put the next one in.I am finding I rarely get matched on more than 1 horse per race though.
Question for BTO, If a price drifts during the day would you chase it up with your lays in the hope you may catch it on the way down and still get matched at 10 ticks below top fluctuation when you may not have got matched using the original opening show price. |
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TTT
you must have won on the 1.05 at thurles |
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I've been doing most races and have had one good day and 3 bad so far.Seem to be getting hit mostly on the all weather meetings with a few succesful gambles going against me.What I do is rather than load all races with 5 lays, to save time I put the first lay in and if/when that gets taken, put the next one in.I am finding I rarely get matched on more than 1 horse per race though.
Question for BTO, If a price drifts during the day would you chase it up with your lays in the hope you may catch it on the way down and still get matched at 10 ticks below top fluctuation when you may not have got matched using the original opening show price. Donnie Brasco, You will get bad runs where the gambles on horses come off, in fact they will probably land more than not, but if you have patience, a real jiuicy nice one will land for you - like in the second at Thurles. ;) For the second part, no I don't chase prices up unless I have no live action on a race at all. If you chase prices up as a rule, you will end up having half to three quarters of a field in your book, but never get matched on outsiders, therefore, you will lose more than win. What we are trying to do is lay one horse out at the shortest possible price (hypothetically) and lay off the exposure on other firmers. Ideally you want to be exposed on one horse only and win on all the others, but it rarely works out that way. The usual for me is to be exposed on one or two horses, win a little on two more, and stand to win a lot on the rest. That's the idea anyway. |
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Thanks for the answers Beat.How do you manage to get matched on 4 runners using opening show odds though.Almost all my races I've been matched on 1 runner only,some on 2 and rarely on 3.
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Fairymount Lord :D
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