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Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?

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Replies: 842
By:
top2rated
When: 30 Sep 14 08:04
Keefter, I assume you're referring to 09/10/2001.

Yes, there were 8 winning favourites at Catterick that day however the Wolverhampton meeting you refer to was an afternoon meeting (first race 13:40) not an evening one. 

Furthermore, you make no reference to the other afternoon meetings that day at Fairyhouse and Southwell.

The table below lists the clear favourites for 09/10/2001 in race time order. There is no evidence of a sequence of '10 favs winning on the trot'.

    Course        Time        Horse        SP        Result   
    Wolverhampton        13:40        Somayya        3.5        1st   
    Southwell        13:50        Bush Park (IRE)        2.75        1st   
    Catterick        14:00        Morouj (USA)        0.4        1st   
    Fairyhouse        14:00        Munda Nai (USA)        1.5        1st   
    Wolverhampton        14:10        No Question        0.57        2nd   
    Southwell        14:20        Cottstown Boy (IRE)        1.25        1st   
    Catterick        14:30        Zargus        0.5        1st   
    Fairyhouse        14:30        Battle Cruiser (USA)        2.25        1st   
    Wolverhampton        14:40        Tucker Fence        2.25        7th   
    Southwell        14:50        Polar Prospect        0.44        2nd   
    Catterick        15:00        Ikenga (IRE)        1.88        1st   
    Fairyhouse        15:00        Khairambar (IRE)        1.5        1st   
    Wolverhampton        15:10        Daily Sport (USA)        1.25        4th   
    Catterick        15:30        Kirkbys Treasure        0.53        1st   
    Fairyhouse        15:30        Naomh Padraig (IRE)        1.1        3rd   
    Southwell        15:50        Rainbows Aglitter        0.67        1st   
    Catterick        16:00        Cheeney Basin (IRE)        1.2        1st   
    Wolverhampton        16:10        Madame Jones (IRE)        1.25        2nd   
    Southwell        16:20        Tawafek (USA)        2        3rd   
    Catterick        16:30        My Line        4        1st   
    Fairyhouse        16:30        Feel The Pride (IRE)        2        5th   
    Wolverhampton        16:40        Hatters Lad (IRE)        1.75        1st   
    Catterick        17:00        Forever Times        1.75        1st   
    Fairyhouse        17:00        Kings Opera (IRE)        3.5        4th   
    Catterick        17:30        Chemicalattraction (IRE)        1.5        1st   
    Fairyhouse        17:30        Pietro Vannucci (IRE)        0.9        1st   
By:
Keefter
When: 30 Sep 14 14:23
fair enough top2rated. I pulled the data from a bewsite after i googled it and assumed it to be accurate. My mistake, since you have the real data what is the longest running streak of consecutive favourites in the UK and Ire? and what prices were each runner? lets see how much you'd be into it for using a martingale system... my example was with evens shots, what if you get 6 winning 3-1 favs in a row? the point still remains that it wouldn't work in the long run. I havent even got into how much comm you'd be paying and how that would have to be figured into the bigger bets to make up the £50 you wnat to make for your million, thats the million you have sat around you've decided to put to use on BF laying favs for a £50 a day profit, about half what you'd make with it sat in an investment account.
By:
Lex
When: 30 Sep 14 14:49
Thanks top2rated.

To be fair, by records only go back about 40 years. But that will do for me...
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