General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 842 comments are related to the topic:
Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?
Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 842
|
By:
Tame, I pressed Lex when 69% of favs won recently in one day on his staking plan and logic behind it.
Im still awaiting a reply! He holds the view that several favs winning consequetively has a direct bearing on the next winning! Tell that to the horse! |
|
By:
back from the school run...
bragging 6/4 matched and beaten  |
|
By:
430 TWO MOONS winner 2/1 matched 2.7
|
|
By:
This will work at level stakes if there is an edge
|
|
By:
4.40 Torren Sound 2/1 matched and beaten
|
|
By:
450 Jarlath 5/2 unmatched
 |
|
By:
3 unmatched in 12 races so far,with 6 winners layed
|
|
By:
tame,whats your p/l so far?
|
|
By:
5.00 Frankthetank 10/11 wins
|
|
By:
50 down to tenner stakes
|
|
By:
510 illwin for hannah 2/1 matched 2.7
|
|
By:
Wheres Lex when you need him Tame?
|
|
By:
520 camelopardalis 5/4 2.06 beaten
|
|
By:
I expect losing days,im worried that 3 have been left unmatched when 95% are supposed to match
|
|
By:
Why not lay the PLACE market with fav.....and increase staking, if necessary after loss?
|
|
By:
5.30 coach montana 7/2 3.5 unmatched
|
|
By:
DFC im testing Lex's strategy,nothing else
|
|
By:
8 winning runs if PLACE market attacked...so far today.
|
|
By:
TTT - fair enough ...but did LEX say in WIN market?
|
|
By:
5.40 Mount Haven EVENS 1.85 wins
|
|
By:
yes DFC,its the win market. 40 down with unmatched beaten favs
|
|
By:
4 unmatched beaten favs
|
|
By:
The market got it right four times,the fav would lose as they did and thats why your lays wernt taken!
|
|
By:
lays were not taken because they didnt hit my lay price in running. Nothing to do with market knowing or not knowing
|
|
By:
if the market thought the lays were value(in running),they would have been taken.
|
|
By:
620 Punch Away We Go 3/1 3.5 wins
|
|
By:
sorry i misunderstood. You are correct.
Looks Like i missed a race and avoided a 7/2 fav winning |
|
By:
630 St Paul De Vence 3/1 3.5 unmatched.Thats the 5th one today. Lex'a claim that 95% will be matched is a million miles away,and thats where his strategy falls down. His figures/past results must assume that all,or 95%, will have been matched,but i dont believe this to be the case.
|
|
By:
Tame, I would advise take Lexs comments with a huge pinch of salt.
He advocates the Martingale system to. |
|
By:
i dont believe he actually advocates the martingale system. If there is an edge this would work to level stakes. However,5 unmatched bets from 19 races shows the flaw in the strategy.
|
|
By:
that was today, but not every day.
Generally 95% get matched and then drift. I did already say what my strategy was. and I do raise my stakes as I said. Martingale is doubling up. I DONT do that. Think this through.... just stake to cover the spread.... |
|
By:
5 unmatched from 19 is rather alot when the expectation is 95% to be matched
|
|
By:
Kemp 19:00 Telephono went off 1.62 matched at 1.5 then lost.
Another thing, the average fav is 2.74 therefore it figures that favs at this and lower will tend to win. It the bigger favs that do the damage. I tend to stake these or dutch them. Ive written a lot on this subject on lots of different threads so the method may seem disjointed. |
|
By:
Here's and example
19:10 Ripon Tamayuz Magic (IRE) 5/6 f so laid at 1.7 because it was matched even though it won it dont matter. But if the fav was ISP 3.5 I need to make sure its matched So what I do is lay it as close as I could to 3.5 - say 3.7 Betfair SP but to make the method work it should have been matched at 3.1 I would then stake to get back the spread eg difference between losing at 3.7 instead of 3.1 I explained my staking before but its ratchet staking - add the amount required to the last bank and your stake is a % of that, I use 2.5% The stakes go up very slowly and restores the balance and long term youre laying at below industry SP Hope that is clear enough |
|
By:
Punch 19:20 Star power was BSP 3.9 but bookies was 3.0 (I think) I've laid it at 3.3
If it loses, happy days if not I will stake to get back the difference not the whole loss. |
|
By:
It lost so happy days
|
|
By:
but how do you know what price to take/offer ? I thought you just knocked 15% off bookies sp price and hope to be matched in running ?
|
|
By:
elsie 7/4 fav 7.50 Punch Did you take something near 2.9 at the off or did you wait for 2.48 in running ?
|
|
By:
8.40RIP epsom hill 5/4 fav another unmatched. Clearly 95% matched is not possible
|
|
By:
Tame, you wont anywhere with Lex
 |