Yesterday wasnt great but it was just about ok.

Some days are spectacular where by you gain 20% and others you can lose 20% of your bank.
It always evens out.

But if you beat bookies SP by 16% using the ideas I have explained then it works.

04-06-2014

Start Bank 100 
Stake target 2.5% of bank
Total races 42
Favs 18/42, SR 42.86%,
Ave SP 2.54 (100/2.54 = 39.37%)
Ave Margin SP 2.23  (100/2.23 = 44.84%)


14:10 Font        5/2F      3.1    --    94.75, 1, 1, 1, owed 5.25, Stk 2.5
14:20 Nott        7/4JF     1.235    --    94.16, 2, 2, 2, owed 5.84, Stk 2.5
14:30 Sout        8/1      --8--    9    96.54, 1, 3, 3, owed 3.46, Stk 2.5
14:40 Font        8/11F      1.61    --    95.01, 2, 4, 4, owed 4.99, Stk 2.5
14:50 Nott        7/1      --7--    7    97.39, 1, 5, 5, owed 2.61, Stk 2.5
15:00 Sout        11/10F      1.92    --    95.09, 2, 6, 6, owed 4.91, Stk 2.5
15:10 Font        1/1F      1.84    --    92.99, 3, 7, 7, owed 7.01, Stk 2.5
15:20 Nott        9/2      --4.5--    9    95.36, 2, 8, 8, owed 4.64, Stk 2.5
15:30 Sout        5/6F      1.7    --    93.61, 3, 9, 9, owed 6.39, Stk 2.5
15:40 Font        4/1F      4.36    --    85.21, 4, 10, 10, owed 14.79, Stk 2.5
15:50 Nott        8/1      --8--    5    87.59, 3, 11, 11, owed 12.41, Stk 2.5
16:00 Sout        7/1      --7--    7    89.96, 2, 12, 12, owed 10.04, Stk 2.5
16:10 Font        9/4      --2.25--    7    92.34, 1, 13, 13, owed 7.66, Stk 2.5
16:20 Nott        4/1      --4--    6    94.71, 0, 0, 13, owed 5.29, Stk 2.5
16:30 Sout        2/1F      2.68    --    90.51, 1, 1, 13, owed 9.49, Stk 2.5
16:40 Font        12/1      --12--    8    92.89, 0, 0, 13, owed 7.11, Stk 2.5
16:50 Nott        9/2      --4.5--    7    95.26, 0, 0, 13, owed 4.74, Stk 2.5
17:00 Sout        10/11F      1.76    --    93.36, 1, 1, 13, owed 6.64, Stk 2.5
17:10 Font        14/1      --14--    6    95.74, 0, 0, 13, owed 4.26, Stk 2.5
17:20 Nott        5/1      --5--    6    98.11, 0, 0, 13, owed 1.89, Stk 2.5
17:30 Sout        9/2      --4.5--    10    100.49, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.51
17:40 Font        1/1F      1.84    --    98.38, 1, 1, 13, owed 2.11, Stk 2.51
17:50 Punc        2/9F      1.18    --    97.93, 2, 2, 13, owed 2.56, Stk 2.51
18:00 Kemp        7/2      --3.5--    11    100.31, 1, 3, 13, owed 0.18, Stk 2.51
18:20 Punc        3/1F      3.52    --    93.98, 2, 4, 13, owed 6.51, Stk 2.51
18:30 Kemp        9/2      --4.5--    8    96.37, 1, 5, 13, owed 4.12, Stk 2.51
18:40 Ripo        10/1      --10--    8    98.75, 0, 0, 13, owed 1.73, Stk 2.51
18:50 Punc        12/1      --12--    22    101.14, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.53
19:00 Kemp        7/1      --7--    14    103.54, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.59
19:10 Ripo        5/6F      1.7    --    101.73, 1, 1, 13, owed 1.81, Stk 2.59
19:20 Punc        5/1      --5--    25    104.19, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.6
19:30 Kemp        8/1      --8--    13    106.66, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.67
19:40 Ripo        1/1F      1.84    --    104.42, 1, 1, 13, owed 2.24, Stk 2.67
19:50 Punc        7/4F      2.47    --    100.5, 2, 2, 13, owed 6.16, Stk 2.67
20:00 Kemp        7/4F      2.47    --    96.58, 3, 3, 13, owed 10.08, Stk 2.67
20:10 Ripo        14/1      --14--    7    99.12, 2, 4, 13, owed 7.55, Stk 2.67
20:20 Punc        9/1      --9--    18    101.65, 1, 5, 13, owed 5.01, Stk 2.67
20:30 Kemp        11/4F      3.31    --    95.49, 2, 6, 13, owed 11.17, Stk 2.67
20:40 Ripo        2/1      --2--    8    98.02, 1, 7, 13, owed 8.64, Stk 2.67
20:50 Punc        4/6F      1.56    --    96.53, 2, 8, 13, owed 10.13, Stk 2.67
21:00 Kemp        9/2      --4.5--    12    99.06, 1, 9, 13, owed 7.6, Stk 2.67
21:10 Ripo        6/1      --6--    5    101.6, 0, 0, 13, owed 5.07, Stk 2.67


This was based on simple ratchet staking.

You can get matched in running, reduce the stake by dutching, or stake to get back the difference between what the odds should be and what you matched.

the 2.30 had a 8/1 winner eg the fav lost

3rd column is the price you needed to be matched at if it was favourite
4th column is the bank after the result.
the other bits are secret
owed is... er.. what I'm owed
and 'Stk'  is probably the stake.

the bank did reach 106.66 which explains the stk =  2.67

simples

aaah ok thanks. Whats the number before the running bank total,sometimes theres no number just a dash ?

--9-7--9--5776 etc ? or is that the secret bit ?

if I told you I would have to shoot you... 

dont be silly kenilworth.
Its almost impossible not to.

It's possible to average £2.50 per day
but not to win that amount every day.

tell me then shoot me,at least i'd die happy

i wouldnt call that a downfall

look at the next at ling 16:10  whats fav? would you lay a 5.5 fav anyways? its unlukely to win, but if it does it could upset you for the day!

What would you do TTT ? come on, have a think....

or can you think 'out of the box' ?

What's that smell??? its me !   Daisy boy losses - phew ...!

But do you see why I laid it? and what if it dont get matched and what if it did and it won?


if you can answer that, I reckon you're on my wavelength - (not necessarily a good thing though!)

if not matched you lost a winner, add it to your ratchet
if matched and won, you got a winner cos it was value.


or lay at BSP and stake to get back the spread.

if you dont like the risk dont bet or go for a big spread.

yep I know... its bonkers.

Lex is right again and it won. Did I lay it ? yes.

BTW I play lots of angles. I quite like Elysian to place....

Hi Lex!

Do you actually have to watch the race for your system to work???

That's rocket science to me Lex!

You've given me some hope though so thanks!

Hope you didn't lay Australia???

Boy oh boy this has risen from the ashes like a geriatric phoenix, or perhaps I'm Lazarus.

I don't agree with some of Lex's ideas, BUT remember Tame The Tiger and Kenilworth from way back, there is something Lex has said that I was trying to impart years ago.....

Some days all your lays will get matched and it will seem like they are all winners :(
You say it's rubbish and give up the ghost.
Other days you break even.
A few days later you fill the bag with them all getting matched and going down the gurgler.
Also you don't want to be laying below sp at the final furlong in my opinion, you want it to either be overbet early and something happens, or cancel it.
A day, a few days, even a week is not enough trialling.
Build some stats with minimum stakes and see how you go for the month.


P.S. BaconT, my PM earlier was to laying the field at SP. Sorry different topic.

Now, IF you feel that all your in running lay bets are winning, what should you do?
Back them pre off or at SP and lay in running for half the stake at reduced odds.

You see over time you will lose all the back stake on non winners, BUT because you have laid the winners at even much greater reduced odds (Back / Lay difference PLUS reduced odds)
You can alter the stakes similar to LEX, not in martingale fashion, but on a daily basis.
Never go race to race EVER. One can also do exactly the same in the place market, so you have two bites of the cherry.
Carte Blanche is not the answer, favourite price, track and race type, distance, odds movement all play a part in the actual staking, still can be done every race, just staked according to RISK.

let me get this straight.

If i have 1 million pounds in my account, i know nothing about horse racing, but decide i'd like to make £50 per day, I would not be able to do this laying each fav until one comes in for me accounting for the losses incurred on each bet up to that point?

If the answer no then the issue isnt the system but the staking plan.

I'm not advising this, i bet for fun but it seems to me that if u have a bank big enough to incur potential losses then youll be fine if u can work out how much of a losing run your bank can take, yes u will never know but all you're asking is one fav to lose, thats it, DONE!

Martingale system moneyforoldrope. It's been visited many many times. If you were to hit a run of winning favourites it would spiral out to amounts you would struggle to get on quite quickly. For simplicity assuming every fav is even money after 8 winning favs in a row you are now betting over 12k, get to 12 winning favs in a row and you've passed the 100k mark. How common is it to get get 12 winning favs in a row? pretty uncommon i would imagine. you would need to optimise the system to deal with specific odds ranges, I would say all favs priced 1.50 to 2.00 and I would use some sort of adapted fibonaci sequence for the betting. why does it have to be a daily thing though? if you just do until you win and start over? eventually in the long long term you will go bust or will fail to get your giant bet matched.

Catterick meeting in October 2001 when 8 winning favs won on the trot. The last race fav winning at Windsor the day before, and the first race fav winner at a Wolverhampton evening meeting the same day as Catterick saw 10 favs winning on the trot.