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The art is in recognising the signals of firmers or drifters and getting in early or doing the prementioned approach.
The signals of firmers are far easier to read than drifters, because most drifters all drift in betting, while most firmers will firm at some point in betting. Sounds daft, but a lot of firmers will drift first then firm, the rest just firm. The moment a movement comes in the ring for a roll in of the odds, get on it on Betfair. Very few drift out again, enough of them plunge ridiculously low to make it an earner. Whereas drifting horses can drift way out or firm. By the time you know which the odds are way too high on here. I'm doing both approaches, backing firmers early and laying them late. I don't touch drifters anymore. |
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[i][/i while most firmers will firm at some point in betting.
even I worked that one out |
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[i][/iThe moment a movement comes in the ring for a roll in of the odds, get on it on Betfair
The ring prices follow Betfair though.If a horse opens 5/1,it will be 6.6 on betfair.If it drops to 6.0,the bookies cut it to 9/2. |
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1250 Dan Breen
-2.5 |
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Oh yes I'm the great pretender (oooh oooh)
Pretending I'm doing well (oooh oooh) My need is such I pretend too much I'm lonely but no-one can tell Oh yes I'm the great pretender (oooh oooh) Adrift in a world of my own (oooh oooh) I play the game but to my real shame You've left me to dream all alone Too real is this feeling of make believe Too real when I feel what my heart can't conceal Oooh oooh yes I'm the great pretender (oooh oooh) Just laughing and gay like a clown (oooh oooh) I seem to be what I'm not (you see) I'm wearing my heart like a crown Pretending that you're still around Yeah oooh hoo Too real when I feel what my heart can't conceal Oh yes I'm the great pretender Just laughing and gay like a clown (oooh oooh) I seem to be what I'm not you see I'm wearing my heart like a crown Pretending that you're Pretending that you're still around |
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The ring prices follow Betfair though.If a horse opens 5/1,it will be 6.6 on betfair.If it drops to 6.0,the bookies cut it to 9/2.
On some it happens, not always. You'll find that the cutting on prices is done by the guys on track who see the shifts before the websites update. |
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Beat - are you still discarding horses greater than $10.00 (9/1)?
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Yes he is.
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Is Cuban pretending he has a brain?
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BTO - is it possible to contact you directly, either by e mail or post ? There are issues I would like to discuss privately.
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Hello artie,
have you actually run with this strategy at all ? |
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Only briefly. My questions for BTO are on another issue he mentioned.
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How brief was it ? As it was brief I assume it wasn't profitable ?
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BTO,
Using this strategy,you have a couple of price filters i.e 9/1 and 2/1. Do you apply any other filters ? |
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BTO,
Don't post it on here if you do have other filters,just yes/no will suffice. |
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He's already given away far too much on this thread.
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I love this thread.
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Since BTO's original words of wisdom it would be interesting to hear how anyone, who had followed the plan, had fared to date.
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Hello Bix,
I ran the strategy for a few weeks,over 500 bets,and made only a tiny profit.I've had to apply a few of my own filters ( I already had 2/1 and 9/1 as my price band,uncanny eh ?)to increase profits,and so far so good,though it's only been another 500 bets,and still way short of 20%. p.s I love you too,Norma. |
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He's already given away far too much on this thread.
Agreed. Which is why I won't be going into anything via email. Sorry Artie. Yes my price band is 2/1 to 9/1 for laying. My price band is significantly wider for backing. Tame The Tiger touched on it earlier. Depending on the race, some shorter firmers are at unbackable odds here before I can get on. Because of the strike rate, people are far more generous on longer priced firmers early. It's only when a solid consistent move is made on a longer priced horse, that it seems to tumble. A slight firm often still has generous odds. |
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What the hell happened to this thread, look at the starting pages!
I gave away too much it seems ;) |
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"which is why I won't be going into anything via e- mail". Does this mean you completely rule out the possibility that you might learn something ? Omnipotence rules OK,Eh ?
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I'm sorry you took it that way Artie.
I could be costing myself, but I'm more than happy with the returns I'm getting backing and laying. I just don't have the time to dissect it any further, I am working races in three countries, and maintaining a small charity. I spent years gathering data and analyzing it with a database. I really have no need to look for extra edges. If Betfair closed down, I'd have to start over, but as it stands, things are good. I wish you luck, please don't take offense at my reluctance to communicate off forum. |
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OK.
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do u back prerace and lay off in running?
or do u lay prerace and back in running? if i lay at 6 for £10 prerace , what should i back it at in running and for how much to lock in profit either way? if i back at 10 for £10 prerace what price should i lay it at in running and for how much to lock in a profit either way? |
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Hope you avoided the winners today !
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all i can say is after looking at this system i wouldnt be interested in following it as there are too many ups and downs.
very slow and boring but gl if you give it a go |
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Doesn't the in-running strategy have the same ups and downs ?
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all i can say is after looking at this system i wouldnt be interested in following it as there are too many ups and downs.
very slow and boring but gl if you give it a go Moon, you need to ask yourself why you gamble. Is it to make a profit or is it the thrill of potentially losing? Unfortunately winning on here, is boring, slow and time consuming and doesn't come easy. Easy money it aint. Even when you find the golden goose there's still a lot of work to put in as Betfair is continually evolving and what works today probably wont work next year. |
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Hi Bix,
I was matched yesterday at the prices below.Do you feel they are close enough to SP,on average,to be able to make a profit,assuming it's possible to get these prices everyday. opens 8/1 into 6/1 matched at 6.8 opens 4/1 into 3/1 matched at 4.1 opens 11/2 out to 13/2 matched at 6.4 opens 7/1 into 9/2 matched at 5.9 opens 11/2 into 4/1 matched at 6.4 I know some are under SP,some are round about SP,and some are over SP.My average is 5.92,SP average is 5.8.Opening average is 7.0. It's a small sample I know,but would maintaining these prices over a bigger sample result in profit ? I'd appreciate your thoughts Bix ,BTO and aye robot on this. |
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have i missed another BTO seminar?
this guy talks such a good game its hard not to be impressed, but he has a history of encouraging people to follow dubious systems... dont know if hes well meaning or what, but i believe he is a fantasist/bullsit artist who has not profited long term from this or indeed any of the systems he has advocated on the forum... just my opinion of coarse, no offence intended... B-) |
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Puma
have you personally tried any of his systems? First thoughts are that laying well supported horses at higher than SP is not likely to show a profit. However as you say he is convincing but may well be a Walter Mitty character. |
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Walter is in profit on his "I hear voices" thread.
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no i have not personally tried any of his systems, but i took an interest in his posting as he seemed to know his stuff, but came to the conclusion it was baseless, and some of the stuff he went on to advocate was just plain crazy...
not my area of expertise TTT but i would suggest those numbers would not be profitable as your lay price is to high, i dont agree with bto's idea that lays on other runners reduce your av odds, this is smoke and mirrors imo... B-) |
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I don't believe I encouraged anyone to do anything, I simply stated what works for me, and responded to questions.
It's always up to the individual to make up his or her own mind. I'm pointing people in the right direction I believe. I have always stated start small. I have always stated don't bet until you are confident with it. |
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opens 8/1 into 6/1 matched at 6.8 yes
opens 4/1 into 3/1 matched at 4.1 yes opens 11/2 out to 13/2 matched at 6.4 yes opens 7/1 into 9/2 matched at 5.9yes opens 11/2 into 4/1 matched at 6.4 [/b]No[/b] So overall yes. |
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I generally skim thru BTO's freds as I don't feel I need to discover his 'edge' but I wouldn't dismiss a fellow statsman. A few bad results and it's knives out...
Take my favourite whipping boys... Jan 2008...+33 points profit laying the naps boys @ less than 9.00 BSP :) Feb-08..-62 points (95 points lost in a month!!) :( Should I increase my stake?? Mar-08...-133 points (glad I didn't!!) Apr-08...-218 points loss May-08..-172 Jun-08....-95 JuL-08...-141 Aug-08..-244 :( :( Sep-08..-196 Oct-08...-91 Nov-08..-124 Dec-08..-184 points loss ( I GIVE UP!!) :( :( :( Jan-09..-240 points loss (Glad I did...) ;) Feb-09..-180 Mar-09..-233 Apr-09...-81 (if only I had been laying them!!) :( May-09...-50 Jun-09...-57 JuL-09....-24 Aug-09...-1 Sep-09...-38 Oct-09....28 (DAMN!!) :( Nov-09....-0 Dec-09...-36 Jan-10....24 points profit 2 years later... ]:) Its a Strawberry Rollercoaster! |
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*Strawberry
Sorry, I meant the Barclays Bank rollercoaster. |
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