General Betting
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Most would agree that a system of backing only the favourite in every race would result in an overall average loss.
The logical consequence of that must be that an overall average gain would result from laying the favourite in every race.
The logical consequence of that must be that an overall average gain would result from laying the favourite in every race.
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If you beat fav ISP by about 16% then a £100 bank turns into 20k in 8 weeks. 2.5% of the bank ratchet staking every UK horse race. (If you know how to get matched and dont do silly bets)
tell you what, Kenilworth give me any date in the last 10 years and I will go back 8 weeks from that date and lets see what the tally is.... might not be 20k but it will close !
your birthday Kenilworth is 04 Nov 2005
so if you started with a 100 quid 8 weeks prior to your birthday you will have
10-09-2005, 33.33%, £108.15 +8.1%
11-09-2005, 30.77%, £103.06 ---4.7%
12-09-2005, 32.14%, £104.14 +1%
13-09-2005, 14.29%, £147.12 +41.3%
14-09-2005, 23.81%, £192.69 +31%
15-09-2005, 25.93%, £232.72 +20.8%
16-09-2005, 32.14%, £255.6 +9.8%
17-09-2005, 30%, £251.37 ---1.7%
18-09-2005, 40%, £221.23 ---12%
19-09-2005, 30.77%, £233.78 +5.7%
20-09-2005, 30.77%, £299.88 +28.3%
21-09-2005, 25%, £343.02 +14.4%
22-09-2005, 25%, £424.62 +23.8%
23-09-2005, 29.63%, £428.31 +0.9%
24-09-2005, 22.92%, £616 +43.8%
25-09-2005, 36.84%, £629.11 +2.1%
26-09-2005, 23.81%, £749.78 +19.2%
27-09-2005, 33.33%, £745.89 ---0.5%
28-09-2005, 32.14%, £840.37 +12.7%
29-09-2005, 27.27%, £939.55 +11.8%
30-09-2005, 33.33%, £1087.09 +15.7%
01-10-2005, 27.66%, £975.39 ---10.3%
02-10-2005, 28.57%, £1195.75 +22.6%
03-10-2005, 34.48%, £1063.3 ---11.1%
04-10-2005, 35%, £989.06 ---7%
05-10-2005, 35%, £1110.36 +12.3%
06-10-2005, 42.11%, £1114.15 +0.3%
07-10-2005, 35.71%, £859.86 ---22.8% !
08-10-2005, 37.5%, £776.31 ---9.7%
09-10-2005, 25.64%, £1059.66 +36.5%
10-10-2005, 14.29%, £1458.43 +37.6%
11-10-2005, 50%, £1347.24 ---7.6%
12-10-2005, 46.43%, £906.77 ---32.7% !
13-10-2005, 37.04%, £891.5 ---1.7%
14-10-2005, 47.62%, £694.76 ---22.1% !
15-10-2005, 19.51%, £1578.83 +127.2%
16-10-2005, 32.35%, £1817.29 +15.1%
17-10-2005, 23.81%, £2150.05 +18.3%
18-10-2005, 38.1%, £2160.9 +0.5%
19-10-2005, 22.58%, £2951.77 +36.6%
20-10-2005, 25%, £3385.39 +14.7%
21-10-2005, 36.36%, £3630.36 +7.2%
22-10-2005, 19.15%, £6915.59 +90.5%
23-10-2005, 39.39%, £6244.11 ---9.7%
24-10-2005, 30.43%, £6466.9 +3.6%
25-10-2005, 15.38%, £8100.68 +25.3%
26-10-2005, 36.36%, £9163.63 +13.1%
27-10-2005, 38.1%, £9943.97 +8.5%
28-10-2005, 45%, £9011.72 ---9.4%
29-10-2005, 25%, £11813.45 +31.1%
30-10-2005, 31.82%, £12355.01 +4.6%
31-10-2005, 27.03%, £16804.24 +36%
01-11-2005, 42.11%, £16933.46 +0.8%
02-11-2005, 41.38%, £17917.31 +5.8%
03-11-2005, 42.86%, £19008.26 +6.1%
04-11-2005, 39.29%, £19351.79 +1.8%
£19k !!!! Happy Birthday !
so if you started with a 100 quid 8 weeks prior to your birthday you will have
10-09-2005, 33.33%, £108.15 +8.1%
11-09-2005, 30.77%, £103.06 ---4.7%
12-09-2005, 32.14%, £104.14 +1%
13-09-2005, 14.29%, £147.12 +41.3%
14-09-2005, 23.81%, £192.69 +31%
15-09-2005, 25.93%, £232.72 +20.8%
16-09-2005, 32.14%, £255.6 +9.8%
17-09-2005, 30%, £251.37 ---1.7%
18-09-2005, 40%, £221.23 ---12%
19-09-2005, 30.77%, £233.78 +5.7%
20-09-2005, 30.77%, £299.88 +28.3%
21-09-2005, 25%, £343.02 +14.4%
22-09-2005, 25%, £424.62 +23.8%
23-09-2005, 29.63%, £428.31 +0.9%
24-09-2005, 22.92%, £616 +43.8%
25-09-2005, 36.84%, £629.11 +2.1%
26-09-2005, 23.81%, £749.78 +19.2%
27-09-2005, 33.33%, £745.89 ---0.5%
28-09-2005, 32.14%, £840.37 +12.7%
29-09-2005, 27.27%, £939.55 +11.8%
30-09-2005, 33.33%, £1087.09 +15.7%
01-10-2005, 27.66%, £975.39 ---10.3%
02-10-2005, 28.57%, £1195.75 +22.6%
03-10-2005, 34.48%, £1063.3 ---11.1%
04-10-2005, 35%, £989.06 ---7%
05-10-2005, 35%, £1110.36 +12.3%
06-10-2005, 42.11%, £1114.15 +0.3%
07-10-2005, 35.71%, £859.86 ---22.8% !
08-10-2005, 37.5%, £776.31 ---9.7%
09-10-2005, 25.64%, £1059.66 +36.5%
10-10-2005, 14.29%, £1458.43 +37.6%
11-10-2005, 50%, £1347.24 ---7.6%
12-10-2005, 46.43%, £906.77 ---32.7% !
13-10-2005, 37.04%, £891.5 ---1.7%
14-10-2005, 47.62%, £694.76 ---22.1% !
15-10-2005, 19.51%, £1578.83 +127.2%
16-10-2005, 32.35%, £1817.29 +15.1%
17-10-2005, 23.81%, £2150.05 +18.3%
18-10-2005, 38.1%, £2160.9 +0.5%
19-10-2005, 22.58%, £2951.77 +36.6%
20-10-2005, 25%, £3385.39 +14.7%
21-10-2005, 36.36%, £3630.36 +7.2%
22-10-2005, 19.15%, £6915.59 +90.5%
23-10-2005, 39.39%, £6244.11 ---9.7%
24-10-2005, 30.43%, £6466.9 +3.6%
25-10-2005, 15.38%, £8100.68 +25.3%
26-10-2005, 36.36%, £9163.63 +13.1%
27-10-2005, 38.1%, £9943.97 +8.5%
28-10-2005, 45%, £9011.72 ---9.4%
29-10-2005, 25%, £11813.45 +31.1%
30-10-2005, 31.82%, £12355.01 +4.6%
31-10-2005, 27.03%, £16804.24 +36%
01-11-2005, 42.11%, £16933.46 +0.8%
02-11-2005, 41.38%, £17917.31 +5.8%
03-11-2005, 42.86%, £19008.26 +6.1%
04-11-2005, 39.29%, £19351.79 +1.8%
£19k !!!! Happy Birthday !
Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?
Above is the question asked.
Above is the question asked.
According to the RP nap table, backing the
unnamed favourite in every race so far this
season would show a loss of £5.69 to a level
£1stake, (that is backing in every race in
line with the OP question)
unnamed favourite in every race so far this
season would show a loss of £5.69 to a level
£1stake, (that is backing in every race in
line with the OP question)
Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?
Above is the question asked.
Thats Laying, not Backing.
And as I've shown, it does work. All you got to do is get matched at 16% less than industry SP.
You can do this in running, or by dutching.
or you just stake over a series to get back the spread rather than the whole loss.
and many others...
Above is the question asked.
Thats Laying, not Backing.
And as I've shown, it does work. All you got to do is get matched at 16% less than industry SP.
You can do this in running, or by dutching.
or you just stake over a series to get back the spread rather than the whole loss.
and many others...
230 southwell 7/4 fav not matched
250 nott 5/4 fav not matched
250 nott 5/4 fav not matched
Lex, put up an example please, it seems to me
offering a price in running of 16% below industry
price, you will guarantee to lay every winner,
but not every loser.
offering a price in running of 16% below industry
price, you will guarantee to lay every winner,
but not every loser.
Layed every winning favourite so far, not matched on the only 2 beaten
Be prepared Tame, Lex is gonna tell you to Martingale your losses.
Tame, I pressed Lex when 69% of favs won recently in one day on his staking plan and logic behind it.
Im still awaiting a reply!
He holds the view that several favs winning consequetively has a direct bearing on the next winning!
Tell that to the horse!
Im still awaiting a reply!
He holds the view that several favs winning consequetively has a direct bearing on the next winning!
Tell that to the horse!
back from the school run...
bragging 6/4 matched and beaten
bragging 6/4 matched and beaten
I expect losing days,im worried that 3 have been left unmatched when 95% are supposed to match
Why not lay the PLACE market with fav.....and increase staking, if necessary after loss?
8 winning runs if PLACE market attacked...so far today.
yes DFC,its the win market. 40 down with unmatched beaten favs
The market got it right four times,the fav would lose as they did and thats why your lays wernt taken!
lays were not taken because they didnt hit my lay price in running. Nothing to do with market knowing or not knowing
if the market thought the lays were value(in running),they would have been taken.
sorry i misunderstood. You are correct.
Looks Like i missed a race and avoided a 7/2 fav winning
Looks Like i missed a race and avoided a 7/2 fav winning
630 St Paul De Vence 3/1 3.5 unmatched.Thats the 5th one today. Lex'a claim that 95% will be matched is a million miles away,and thats where his strategy falls down. His figures/past results must assume that all,or 95%, will have been matched,but i dont believe this to be the case.
Tame, I would advise take Lexs comments with a huge pinch of salt.
He advocates the Martingale system to.
He advocates the Martingale system to.
i dont believe he actually advocates the martingale system. If there is an edge this would work to level stakes. However,5 unmatched bets from 19 races shows the flaw in the strategy.
that was today, but not every day.
Generally 95% get matched and then drift.
I did already say what my strategy was.
and I do raise my stakes as I said.
Martingale is doubling up. I DONT do that.
Think this through.... just stake to cover the spread....
Generally 95% get matched and then drift.
I did already say what my strategy was.
and I do raise my stakes as I said.
Martingale is doubling up. I DONT do that.
Think this through.... just stake to cover the spread....
5 unmatched from 19 is rather alot when the expectation is 95% to be matched
Kemp 19:00 Telephono went off 1.62 matched at 1.5 then lost.
Another thing, the average fav is 2.74 therefore it figures that favs at this and lower will tend to win.
It the bigger favs that do the damage. I tend to stake these or dutch them.
Ive written a lot on this subject on lots of different threads so the method may seem disjointed.
Another thing, the average fav is 2.74 therefore it figures that favs at this and lower will tend to win.
It the bigger favs that do the damage. I tend to stake these or dutch them.
Ive written a lot on this subject on lots of different threads so the method may seem disjointed.
Here's and example
19:10 Ripon Tamayuz Magic (IRE) 5/6 f so laid at 1.7 because it was matched even though it won it dont matter.
But if the fav was ISP 3.5 I need to make sure its matched
So what I do is lay it as close as I could to 3.5 - say 3.7 Betfair SP but to make the method work it should have been matched at 3.1
I would then stake to get back the spread eg difference between losing at 3.7 instead of 3.1
I explained my staking before but its ratchet staking - add the amount required to the last bank and your stake is a % of that, I use 2.5% The stakes go up very slowly and restores the balance and long term youre laying at below industry SP
Hope that is clear enough
19:10 Ripon Tamayuz Magic (IRE) 5/6 f so laid at 1.7 because it was matched even though it won it dont matter.
But if the fav was ISP 3.5 I need to make sure its matched
So what I do is lay it as close as I could to 3.5 - say 3.7 Betfair SP but to make the method work it should have been matched at 3.1
I would then stake to get back the spread eg difference between losing at 3.7 instead of 3.1
I explained my staking before but its ratchet staking - add the amount required to the last bank and your stake is a % of that, I use 2.5% The stakes go up very slowly and restores the balance and long term youre laying at below industry SP
Hope that is clear enough
Punch 19:20 Star power was BSP 3.9 but bookies was 3.0 (I think) I've laid it at 3.3
If it loses, happy days if not I will stake to get back the difference not the whole loss.
If it loses, happy days if not I will stake to get back the difference not the whole loss.
but how do you know what price to take/offer ? I thought you just knocked 15% off bookies sp price and hope to be matched in running ?
elsie 7/4 fav 7.50 Punch Did you take something near 2.9 at the off or did you wait for 2.48 in running ?
8.40RIP epsom hill 5/4 fav another unmatched. Clearly 95% matched is not possible
Hi - if you read the post above I explain what I do / would do and why.
yesterday matching was difficult. Today could be easier - who knows ? Utlimately racing has its ups and downs and returns to the mean averages. Thats why to an extent it's predicatable and why this method works.
Like I say, if you cant get matched the stake to get back the margin/spread. I explained that bit as well.
ok?
yesterday matching was difficult. Today could be easier - who knows ? Utlimately racing has its ups and downs and returns to the mean averages. Thats why to an extent it's predicatable and why this method works.
Like I say, if you cant get matched the stake to get back the margin/spread. I explained that bit as well.
ok?
Yesterday wasnt great but it was just about ok.
Some days are spectacular where by you gain 20% and others you can lose 20% of your bank.
It always evens out.
But if you beat bookies SP by 16% using the ideas I have explained then it works.
04-06-2014
Start Bank 100
Stake target 2.5% of bank
Total races 42
Favs 18/42, SR 42.86%,
Ave SP 2.54 (100/2.54 = 39.37%)
Ave Margin SP 2.23 (100/2.23 = 44.84%)
14:10 Font 5/2F 3.1 -- 94.75, 1, 1, 1, owed 5.25, Stk 2.5
14:20 Nott 7/4JF 1.235 -- 94.16, 2, 2, 2, owed 5.84, Stk 2.5
14:30 Sout 8/1 --8-- 9 96.54, 1, 3, 3, owed 3.46, Stk 2.5
14:40 Font 8/11F 1.61 -- 95.01, 2, 4, 4, owed 4.99, Stk 2.5
14:50 Nott 7/1 --7-- 7 97.39, 1, 5, 5, owed 2.61, Stk 2.5
15:00 Sout 11/10F 1.92 -- 95.09, 2, 6, 6, owed 4.91, Stk 2.5
15:10 Font 1/1F 1.84 -- 92.99, 3, 7, 7, owed 7.01, Stk 2.5
15:20 Nott 9/2 --4.5-- 9 95.36, 2, 8, 8, owed 4.64, Stk 2.5
15:30 Sout 5/6F 1.7 -- 93.61, 3, 9, 9, owed 6.39, Stk 2.5
15:40 Font 4/1F 4.36 -- 85.21, 4, 10, 10, owed 14.79, Stk 2.5
15:50 Nott 8/1 --8-- 5 87.59, 3, 11, 11, owed 12.41, Stk 2.5
16:00 Sout 7/1 --7-- 7 89.96, 2, 12, 12, owed 10.04, Stk 2.5
16:10 Font 9/4 --2.25-- 7 92.34, 1, 13, 13, owed 7.66, Stk 2.5
16:20 Nott 4/1 --4-- 6 94.71, 0, 0, 13, owed 5.29, Stk 2.5
16:30 Sout 2/1F 2.68 -- 90.51, 1, 1, 13, owed 9.49, Stk 2.5
16:40 Font 12/1 --12-- 8 92.89, 0, 0, 13, owed 7.11, Stk 2.5
16:50 Nott 9/2 --4.5-- 7 95.26, 0, 0, 13, owed 4.74, Stk 2.5
17:00 Sout 10/11F 1.76 -- 93.36, 1, 1, 13, owed 6.64, Stk 2.5
17:10 Font 14/1 --14-- 6 95.74, 0, 0, 13, owed 4.26, Stk 2.5
17:20 Nott 5/1 --5-- 6 98.11, 0, 0, 13, owed 1.89, Stk 2.5
17:30 Sout 9/2 --4.5-- 10 100.49, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.51
17:40 Font 1/1F 1.84 -- 98.38, 1, 1, 13, owed 2.11, Stk 2.51
17:50 Punc 2/9F 1.18 -- 97.93, 2, 2, 13, owed 2.56, Stk 2.51
18:00 Kemp 7/2 --3.5-- 11 100.31, 1, 3, 13, owed 0.18, Stk 2.51
18:20 Punc 3/1F 3.52 -- 93.98, 2, 4, 13, owed 6.51, Stk 2.51
18:30 Kemp 9/2 --4.5-- 8 96.37, 1, 5, 13, owed 4.12, Stk 2.51
18:40 Ripo 10/1 --10-- 8 98.75, 0, 0, 13, owed 1.73, Stk 2.51
18:50 Punc 12/1 --12-- 22 101.14, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.53
19:00 Kemp 7/1 --7-- 14 103.54, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.59
19:10 Ripo 5/6F 1.7 -- 101.73, 1, 1, 13, owed 1.81, Stk 2.59
19:20 Punc 5/1 --5-- 25 104.19, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.6
19:30 Kemp 8/1 --8-- 13 106.66, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.67
19:40 Ripo 1/1F 1.84 -- 104.42, 1, 1, 13, owed 2.24, Stk 2.67
19:50 Punc 7/4F 2.47 -- 100.5, 2, 2, 13, owed 6.16, Stk 2.67
20:00 Kemp 7/4F 2.47 -- 96.58, 3, 3, 13, owed 10.08, Stk 2.67
20:10 Ripo 14/1 --14-- 7 99.12, 2, 4, 13, owed 7.55, Stk 2.67
20:20 Punc 9/1 --9-- 18 101.65, 1, 5, 13, owed 5.01, Stk 2.67
20:30 Kemp 11/4F 3.31 -- 95.49, 2, 6, 13, owed 11.17, Stk 2.67
20:40 Ripo 2/1 --2-- 8 98.02, 1, 7, 13, owed 8.64, Stk 2.67
20:50 Punc 4/6F 1.56 -- 96.53, 2, 8, 13, owed 10.13, Stk 2.67
21:00 Kemp 9/2 --4.5-- 12 99.06, 1, 9, 13, owed 7.6, Stk 2.67
21:10 Ripo 6/1 --6-- 5 101.6, 0, 0, 13, owed 5.07, Stk 2.67
This was based on simple ratchet staking.
You can get matched in running, reduce the stake by dutching, or stake to get back the difference between what the odds should be and what you matched.
Some days are spectacular where by you gain 20% and others you can lose 20% of your bank.
It always evens out.
But if you beat bookies SP by 16% using the ideas I have explained then it works.
04-06-2014
Start Bank 100
Stake target 2.5% of bank
Total races 42
Favs 18/42, SR 42.86%,
Ave SP 2.54 (100/2.54 = 39.37%)
Ave Margin SP 2.23 (100/2.23 = 44.84%)
14:10 Font 5/2F 3.1 -- 94.75, 1, 1, 1, owed 5.25, Stk 2.5
14:20 Nott 7/4JF 1.235 -- 94.16, 2, 2, 2, owed 5.84, Stk 2.5
14:30 Sout 8/1 --8-- 9 96.54, 1, 3, 3, owed 3.46, Stk 2.5
14:40 Font 8/11F 1.61 -- 95.01, 2, 4, 4, owed 4.99, Stk 2.5
14:50 Nott 7/1 --7-- 7 97.39, 1, 5, 5, owed 2.61, Stk 2.5
15:00 Sout 11/10F 1.92 -- 95.09, 2, 6, 6, owed 4.91, Stk 2.5
15:10 Font 1/1F 1.84 -- 92.99, 3, 7, 7, owed 7.01, Stk 2.5
15:20 Nott 9/2 --4.5-- 9 95.36, 2, 8, 8, owed 4.64, Stk 2.5
15:30 Sout 5/6F 1.7 -- 93.61, 3, 9, 9, owed 6.39, Stk 2.5
15:40 Font 4/1F 4.36 -- 85.21, 4, 10, 10, owed 14.79, Stk 2.5
15:50 Nott 8/1 --8-- 5 87.59, 3, 11, 11, owed 12.41, Stk 2.5
16:00 Sout 7/1 --7-- 7 89.96, 2, 12, 12, owed 10.04, Stk 2.5
16:10 Font 9/4 --2.25-- 7 92.34, 1, 13, 13, owed 7.66, Stk 2.5
16:20 Nott 4/1 --4-- 6 94.71, 0, 0, 13, owed 5.29, Stk 2.5
16:30 Sout 2/1F 2.68 -- 90.51, 1, 1, 13, owed 9.49, Stk 2.5
16:40 Font 12/1 --12-- 8 92.89, 0, 0, 13, owed 7.11, Stk 2.5
16:50 Nott 9/2 --4.5-- 7 95.26, 0, 0, 13, owed 4.74, Stk 2.5
17:00 Sout 10/11F 1.76 -- 93.36, 1, 1, 13, owed 6.64, Stk 2.5
17:10 Font 14/1 --14-- 6 95.74, 0, 0, 13, owed 4.26, Stk 2.5
17:20 Nott 5/1 --5-- 6 98.11, 0, 0, 13, owed 1.89, Stk 2.5
17:30 Sout 9/2 --4.5-- 10 100.49, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.51
17:40 Font 1/1F 1.84 -- 98.38, 1, 1, 13, owed 2.11, Stk 2.51
17:50 Punc 2/9F 1.18 -- 97.93, 2, 2, 13, owed 2.56, Stk 2.51
18:00 Kemp 7/2 --3.5-- 11 100.31, 1, 3, 13, owed 0.18, Stk 2.51
18:20 Punc 3/1F 3.52 -- 93.98, 2, 4, 13, owed 6.51, Stk 2.51
18:30 Kemp 9/2 --4.5-- 8 96.37, 1, 5, 13, owed 4.12, Stk 2.51
18:40 Ripo 10/1 --10-- 8 98.75, 0, 0, 13, owed 1.73, Stk 2.51
18:50 Punc 12/1 --12-- 22 101.14, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.53
19:00 Kemp 7/1 --7-- 14 103.54, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.59
19:10 Ripo 5/6F 1.7 -- 101.73, 1, 1, 13, owed 1.81, Stk 2.59
19:20 Punc 5/1 --5-- 25 104.19, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.6
19:30 Kemp 8/1 --8-- 13 106.66, 0, 0, 13, owed 0, Stk 2.67
19:40 Ripo 1/1F 1.84 -- 104.42, 1, 1, 13, owed 2.24, Stk 2.67
19:50 Punc 7/4F 2.47 -- 100.5, 2, 2, 13, owed 6.16, Stk 2.67
20:00 Kemp 7/4F 2.47 -- 96.58, 3, 3, 13, owed 10.08, Stk 2.67
20:10 Ripo 14/1 --14-- 7 99.12, 2, 4, 13, owed 7.55, Stk 2.67
20:20 Punc 9/1 --9-- 18 101.65, 1, 5, 13, owed 5.01, Stk 2.67
20:30 Kemp 11/4F 3.31 -- 95.49, 2, 6, 13, owed 11.17, Stk 2.67
20:40 Ripo 2/1 --2-- 8 98.02, 1, 7, 13, owed 8.64, Stk 2.67
20:50 Punc 4/6F 1.56 -- 96.53, 2, 8, 13, owed 10.13, Stk 2.67
21:00 Kemp 9/2 --4.5-- 12 99.06, 1, 9, 13, owed 7.6, Stk 2.67
21:10 Ripo 6/1 --6-- 5 101.6, 0, 0, 13, owed 5.07, Stk 2.67
This was based on simple ratchet staking.
You can get matched in running, reduce the stake by dutching, or stake to get back the difference between what the odds should be and what you matched.
Thanks for your responses Lex.
2.30 I was unmatched but you layed at 8/1 ?
also what are the figures after the odds, 3rd/4th columns ?
2.30 I was unmatched but you layed at 8/1 ?
also what are the figures after the odds, 3rd/4th columns ?
the 2.30 had a 8/1 winner eg the fav lost
3rd column is the price you needed to be matched at if it was favourite
4th column is the bank after the result.
the other bits are secret
owed is... er.. what I'm owed
and 'Stk' is probably the stake.
the bank did reach 106.66 which explains the stk = 2.67
simples
3rd column is the price you needed to be matched at if it was favourite
4th column is the bank after the result.
the other bits are secret
owed is... er.. what I'm owed
and 'Stk' is probably the stake.
the bank did reach 106.66 which explains the stk = 2.67
simples
Heres another eye opener .... did you know that if you raised your bank by only 2.5% every day for a month you would double it?
if you cant win £2.5 with a £100 bank every day you're a peanut.
100 2.5
102.5 2.56
105.06 2.62
etc etc - dont forget the commission - yawn...
if you cant win £2.5 with a £100 bank every day you're a peanut.
100 2.5
102.5 2.56
105.06 2.62
etc etc - dont forget the commission - yawn...
aaah ok thanks. Whats the number before the running bank total,sometimes theres no number just a dash ?
--9-7--9--5776 etc ? or is that the secret bit ?
--9-7--9--5776 etc ? or is that the secret bit ?
It's possible to average £2.50 per day
but not to win that amount every day.
but not to win that amount every day.
2.30 southwell 7/4 fav unmatched,but you staked 2.5 on something.what was it ?
ok, I'll agree with that - mostly. some days everything goes wrong and sometimes youre Midas.
My biggest regret is lacking discipline.
fast women and slow horses has long been my downfall
My biggest regret is lacking discipline.
fast women and slow horses has long been my downfall
DOUBLED
Joined: 15 Feb 03
Replies: 947
05 Jun 14 15:49
nothing is impossible imo
You proved that some time ago when
you turned a decent level stake profit
into a loss by using a magical staking
plan if my memory serves me correctly,
and that takes some doing.
Joined: 15 Feb 03
Replies: 947
05 Jun 14 15:49
nothing is impossible imo
You proved that some time ago when
you turned a decent level stake profit
into a loss by using a magical staking
plan if my memory serves me correctly,
and that takes some doing.
look at the next at ling 16:10 whats fav? would you lay a 5.5 fav anyways? its unlukely to win, but if it does it could upset you for the day!
What would you do TTT ? come on, have a think....
What would you do TTT ? come on, have a think....
Money coming for Daisy boy 4.0 now... seriously overbet. Is it a well plotted gamble or is it Billy Hill's traders having a melt down? would you risk laying it?
What's that smell??? its me ! Daisy boy losses - phew ...!
But do you see why I laid it? and what if it dont get matched and what if it did and it won?
if you can answer that, I reckon you're on my wavelength - (not necessarily a good thing though!)
But do you see why I laid it? and what if it dont get matched and what if it did and it won?
if you can answer that, I reckon you're on my wavelength - (not necessarily a good thing though!)
i cant think full stop,never mind out of the box.
If not matched you lose nothing,if it wins you pay out at 2/1
If not matched you lose nothing,if it wins you pay out at 2/1
if not matched you lost a winner, add it to your ratchet
if matched and won, you got a winner cos it was value.
or lay at BSP and stake to get back the spread.
if you dont like the risk dont bet or go for a big spread.
yep I know... its bonkers.
if matched and won, you got a winner cos it was value.
or lay at BSP and stake to get back the spread.
if you dont like the risk dont bet or go for a big spread.
yep I know... its bonkers.
funny old thing stats...no favs for 8 races then up pops ski slope 5/4 at 16:40 lingers. Its short cos the bookies know that despite the form its statisitaclly very strong.
16:50 Southwell Rainbow rock is also solid. so lay it well below ISP - do I care if it wins? nope.
Hi Lex!
Do you actually have to watch the race for your system to work???
Do you actually have to watch the race for your system to work???
No. Lay them all at BFSP then stake to get back as required next day.
But you can't ratchet at all effectively and you're staking more than required so you would use a bigger bank/smaller %
Remember only stake to get back the spread not the whole loss.
But you can't ratchet at all effectively and you're staking more than required so you would use a bigger bank/smaller %
Remember only stake to get back the spread not the whole loss.
That's rocket science to me Lex!
You've given me some hope though so thanks!
Hope you didn't lay Australia???
You've given me some hope though so thanks!
Hope you didn't lay Australia???
if you remember "no favs for 8 races" so I actually backed it.
Boy oh boy this has risen from the ashes like a geriatric phoenix, or perhaps I'm Lazarus.
I don't agree with some of Lex's ideas, BUT remember Tame The Tiger and Kenilworth from way back, there is something Lex has said that I was trying to impart years ago.....
Some days all your lays will get matched and it will seem like they are all winners :(
You say it's rubbish and give up the ghost.
Other days you break even.
A few days later you fill the bag with them all getting matched and going down the gurgler.
Also you don't want to be laying below sp at the final furlong in my opinion, you want it to either be overbet early and something happens, or cancel it.
A day, a few days, even a week is not enough trialling.
Build some stats with minimum stakes and see how you go for the month.
P.S. BaconT, my PM earlier was to laying the field at SP. Sorry different topic.
Now, IF you feel that all your in running lay bets are winning, what should you do?
Back them pre off or at SP and lay in running for half the stake at reduced odds.
You see over time you will lose all the back stake on non winners, BUT because you have laid the winners at even much greater reduced odds (Back / Lay difference PLUS reduced odds)
You can alter the stakes similar to LEX, not in martingale fashion, but on a daily basis.
Never go race to race EVER. One can also do exactly the same in the place market, so you have two bites of the cherry.
Carte Blanche is not the answer, favourite price, track and race type, distance, odds movement all play a part in the actual staking, still can be done every race, just staked according to RISK.
I don't agree with some of Lex's ideas, BUT remember Tame The Tiger and Kenilworth from way back, there is something Lex has said that I was trying to impart years ago.....
Some days all your lays will get matched and it will seem like they are all winners :(
You say it's rubbish and give up the ghost.
Other days you break even.
A few days later you fill the bag with them all getting matched and going down the gurgler.
Also you don't want to be laying below sp at the final furlong in my opinion, you want it to either be overbet early and something happens, or cancel it.
A day, a few days, even a week is not enough trialling.
Build some stats with minimum stakes and see how you go for the month.
P.S. BaconT, my PM earlier was to laying the field at SP. Sorry different topic.
Now, IF you feel that all your in running lay bets are winning, what should you do?
Back them pre off or at SP and lay in running for half the stake at reduced odds.
You see over time you will lose all the back stake on non winners, BUT because you have laid the winners at even much greater reduced odds (Back / Lay difference PLUS reduced odds)
You can alter the stakes similar to LEX, not in martingale fashion, but on a daily basis.
Never go race to race EVER. One can also do exactly the same in the place market, so you have two bites of the cherry.
Carte Blanche is not the answer, favourite price, track and race type, distance, odds movement all play a part in the actual staking, still can be done every race, just staked according to RISK.
let me get this straight.
If i have 1 million pounds in my account, i know nothing about horse racing, but decide i'd like to make £50 per day, I would not be able to do this laying each fav until one comes in for me accounting for the losses incurred on each bet up to that point?
If the answer no then the issue isnt the system but the staking plan.
I'm not advising this, i bet for fun but it seems to me that if u have a bank big enough to incur potential losses then youll be fine if u can work out how much of a losing run your bank can take, yes u will never know but all you're asking is one fav to lose, thats it, DONE!
If i have 1 million pounds in my account, i know nothing about horse racing, but decide i'd like to make £50 per day, I would not be able to do this laying each fav until one comes in for me accounting for the losses incurred on each bet up to that point?
If the answer no then the issue isnt the system but the staking plan.
I'm not advising this, i bet for fun but it seems to me that if u have a bank big enough to incur potential losses then youll be fine if u can work out how much of a losing run your bank can take, yes u will never know but all you're asking is one fav to lose, thats it, DONE!
Martingale system moneyforoldrope. It's been visited many many times. If you were to hit a run of winning favourites it would spiral out to amounts you would struggle to get on quite quickly. For simplicity assuming every fav is even money after 8 winning favs in a row you are now betting over 12k, get to 12 winning favs in a row and you've passed the 100k mark. How common is it to get get 12 winning favs in a row? pretty uncommon i would imagine. you would need to optimise the system to deal with specific odds ranges, I would say all favs priced 1.50 to 2.00 and I would use some sort of adapted fibonaci sequence for the betting. why does it have to be a daily thing though? if you just do until you win and start over? eventually in the long long term you will go bust or will fail to get your giant bet matched.
there has never been 10 conseq winning favs in uk or ire horse racing. not ever.
Catterick meeting in October 2001 when 8 winning favs won on the trot. The last race fav winning at Windsor the day before, and the first race fav winner at a Wolverhampton evening meeting the same day as Catterick saw 10 favs winning on the trot.
Keefter, I assume you're referring to 09/10/2001.
Yes, there were 8 winning favourites at Catterick that day however the Wolverhampton meeting you refer to was an afternoon meeting (first race 13:40) not an evening one.
Furthermore, you make no reference to the other afternoon meetings that day at Fairyhouse and Southwell.
The table below lists the clear favourites for 09/10/2001 in race time order. There is no evidence of a sequence of '10 favs winning on the trot'.
Yes, there were 8 winning favourites at Catterick that day however the Wolverhampton meeting you refer to was an afternoon meeting (first race 13:40) not an evening one.
Furthermore, you make no reference to the other afternoon meetings that day at Fairyhouse and Southwell.
The table below lists the clear favourites for 09/10/2001 in race time order. There is no evidence of a sequence of '10 favs winning on the trot'.
| Course | Time | Horse | SP | Result |
| Wolverhampton | 13:40 | Somayya | 3.5 | 1st |
| Southwell | 13:50 | Bush Park (IRE) | 2.75 | 1st |
| Catterick | 14:00 | Morouj (USA) | 0.4 | 1st |
| Fairyhouse | 14:00 | Munda Nai (USA) | 1.5 | 1st |
| Wolverhampton | 14:10 | No Question | 0.57 | 2nd |
| Southwell | 14:20 | Cottstown Boy (IRE) | 1.25 | 1st |
| Catterick | 14:30 | Zargus | 0.5 | 1st |
| Fairyhouse | 14:30 | Battle Cruiser (USA) | 2.25 | 1st |
| Wolverhampton | 14:40 | Tucker Fence | 2.25 | 7th |
| Southwell | 14:50 | Polar Prospect | 0.44 | 2nd |
| Catterick | 15:00 | Ikenga (IRE) | 1.88 | 1st |
| Fairyhouse | 15:00 | Khairambar (IRE) | 1.5 | 1st |
| Wolverhampton | 15:10 | Daily Sport (USA) | 1.25 | 4th |
| Catterick | 15:30 | Kirkbys Treasure | 0.53 | 1st |
| Fairyhouse | 15:30 | Naomh Padraig (IRE) | 1.1 | 3rd |
| Southwell | 15:50 | Rainbows Aglitter | 0.67 | 1st |
| Catterick | 16:00 | Cheeney Basin (IRE) | 1.2 | 1st |
| Wolverhampton | 16:10 | Madame Jones (IRE) | 1.25 | 2nd |
| Southwell | 16:20 | Tawafek (USA) | 2 | 3rd |
| Catterick | 16:30 | My Line | 4 | 1st |
| Fairyhouse | 16:30 | Feel The Pride (IRE) | 2 | 5th |
| Wolverhampton | 16:40 | Hatters Lad (IRE) | 1.75 | 1st |
| Catterick | 17:00 | Forever Times | 1.75 | 1st |
| Fairyhouse | 17:00 | Kings Opera (IRE) | 3.5 | 4th |
| Catterick | 17:30 | Chemicalattraction (IRE) | 1.5 | 1st |
| Fairyhouse | 17:30 | Pietro Vannucci (IRE) | 0.9 | 1st |
fair enough top2rated. I pulled the data from a bewsite after i googled it and assumed it to be accurate. My mistake, since you have the real data what is the longest running streak of consecutive favourites in the UK and Ire? and what prices were each runner? lets see how much you'd be into it for using a martingale system... my example was with evens shots, what if you get 6 winning 3-1 favs in a row? the point still remains that it wouldn't work in the long run. I havent even got into how much comm you'd be paying and how that would have to be figured into the bigger bets to make up the £50 you wnat to make for your million, thats the million you have sat around you've decided to put to use on BF laying favs for a £50 a day profit, about half what you'd make with it sat in an investment account.
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