General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Most would agree that a system of backing only the favourite in every race would result in an overall average loss.
The logical consequence of that must be that an overall average gain would result from laying the favourite in every race.
The logical consequence of that must be that an overall average gain would result from laying the favourite in every race.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 842
|
By:
Not just that simple, believe me. Commission and higher prices play a bigger part in this than you would imagine.
|
|
By:
Try it sg if you're so inclined.
Then report back in due course. We will all await breathlessly. It's such an original, creative idea. |
|
By:
it does not matter what you back/lay you are just compounding losses between 2% and 5% every time you bet
|
|
By:
How do you spell bizarre please?
|
|
By:
S-T-R-A-N-G-E lol
|
|
By:
no pain no gain
|
|
By:
Not inclined to try thanks as the question acknowledges that the system doesn't work. My query is why not.
Putting the commission factor to one side, if you have two gamblers one backing and one laying the favourite, over time, one will come out on top eventually - question is which? |
|
By:
Try other tipsters instead, if November stats are anything to go by...
+36.95....Top Course Trainer +03.76....The Guardian -04.98.....The Favourite -80.96.....The Express Computerman -84.30.....Daily Mirror Newsboy -85.08.....The Star Tony Lewis -93.22.....Telegraph Marlborough -93.86.....Rp Ratings -97.75.....Postdata -104.80...The Times Rob Wright -153.73...Daily Mail Robin Goodfellow -165.84...The Sun Templegate |
|
By:
taking out commission for the equation, the layer will win in the long run. But Betfair is the winner.
|
|
By:
The layer will lose....... but not as much as the backer
|
|
By:
where does the money go then?
|
|
By:
Perhaps I'm being ignorant but it would seem to follow from your answer Olympic that the system of always laying the favourite would work if you could find laying odds 2-5% better than betfair?
|
|
By:
They can't both lose.
|
|
By:
It is a "systematic" way of betting ...either lay or back ....BUT...........if you bet like a robot, without having an "edge" ...YOU WILL LOSE , WHETHER YOU LAY OR BACK.........
Not that complicated ....is it ! |
|
By:
All depends what how big of a bank you have and if using any staking plans, there are alot of variables.
|
|
By:
Remember ....the above post relates to "systematically" backing or laying FAVOURITES ............
|
|
By:
2nd poster is correct. Neither the backer nor the layer wins due to commission.
|
|
By:
Olympic22 - size of bank is IRRELEVANT....re the favorites backing or laying queston asked.....
|
|
By:
you need to look at ways of laying the favorite as near or under the sp as possible
|
|
By:
Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?
=================================================== Such activity is purely "compulsive" betting without any thought at all........ |
|
By:
......or backing the fav at over SP!
|
|
By:
Cliftonhill, that assumes that the SP is an accurate indicator of the horses chances of winning.
|
|
By:
Regardless of each individual horse's chance of winning, if you back each favourite at greater than SP, or lay each favourite at less than SP (can't say by how much you'd need to beat the price either way), you will win in the long term.
The 'November' stats in a previous post show a small loss at SP, so to turn that into a win you have to beat SP. This, of course, may be too simplistic! |
|
By:
Think of coin tossing. If I back 100 times on 5% commission and win 50 times, I only win £47.5 after commission. So overall I lose £2.5. And laying it loses me the same amount.
|
|
By:
sg123 10 Dec 19:05
Most would agree that a system of backing only the favourite in every race would result in an overall average loss. The logical consequence of that must be that an overall average gain would result from laying the favourite in every race. Yes you are right.....which is why bookies are still in business !!! |
|
By:
most winners do so by very small margins sg, the 2/3 % you speak of is huge, for instance if you were backing evens chances and managed to get a 53% strike rate, BF would consider your profits so extreme as to justify supplementary charges.
|
|
By:
Where the money goes:
-04.98.....The Favourite backing at SP +26.00...Bf Favourite backing at BSP (+52.58...Gross Profit - 26.58 (5% Bf comm) |
|
By:
Judging by the table above it would be a lot more profitable to blindly lay Templegate's selections every day (at SP of course)
|
|
By:
careful ... it would HAVE BEEN lot more profitable ... is all you can conclude ...
|
|
By:
so, to sum up:
*commission *the spread. |
|
By:
Assuming that all of the following would result in a loss due to the commission etc does anyone have a theory about which of the following might be the best or worst option:
Always backing or laying the favourite Always backing or laying the least favourite Always backing or laying a horse with odds in between the two |
|
By:
Always backing or laying a horse with odds in between the two
======================================================== Can you clarify what you mean re a race where even number of runners ??????? |
|
By:
]:)
|
|
By:
why don't you lay favs IR under industry SP?
|
|
By:
When its below the sp its looking good, above sp when its missed the break, jumping badly etc.
|
|
By:
front running favourites at market rasen :p
|
|
By:
Putting the commission factor to one side, if you have two gamblers one backing and one laying the favourite, over time, one will come out on top eventually - question is which?
Your basic assumption is flawed- first, the idea that one will come out on top (ignoring comission). This is'nt the case, overall they will come out even- although there will be times when one is up and the other down. Neither backing nor laying is fundamentally a better bet- neither of the hypothetical players will "win" outright. Now, coming back to comission; because of comission both players will lose- and not slowly either. Let's say that £100 changes hand on the first bet, £5 goes to betfair so that's gone from the pot, so on the next bet £95 changes hands back the other way- follow this thorough and after just 20 bets you're diwn to the two players exchanging just £36 punds between them, the other £64 having disappeared in 5% chunks. Still feel like ignoring comission? What this adds up to is a one word answer to your original question: Q: Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work? A: Comission |
|
By:
What this adds up to is a one word answer to your original question:
Q: Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work? A: Comission I don't agree. Anyone else with me on this ?? |
|
By:
Surely the question you should be asking is which types of races, and at which tracks, should I be blindly laying the favourite in imo...
|