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You can make money just as easily by backing as you can by laying. In either case, you need an edge. Just a small edge will do but it has to cover your commision and still leave a profit.
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9 wins easy :)
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oops, wrong thread apologies.
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''Putting the commission factor to one side''
if only |
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Tightfisted ....... Will you please keep your mouth shut .. you are killing the golden goose .....................zipper
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LAY THE FAV USE MARTINGALE
CANNOT LOSE LOL |
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You can profit laying any horse -- if you lay at SP or under.
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Zipper, famous for the systems:
Back and Lay Alan Keyte's Golden Goose Back the champs, Lay the chumps Follow the money, lay the drifters Lay the Naps boys Lay the most popular nap Back and Lay the Naps boys Back and Lay the most popular nap Back and Lay the favourite Back and Lay the 2nd Fav Back and Lay the 3rd Fav ad infinitum I think you've done enough damage to your credibility, never mind other mugs' wallets. |
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lay front runners on the all weather that are going too fast at 3% below sp
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Tightfisted,
What's your reasoning? Is it something you do or an opinion? Don't take this the wrong way- it's a genuine question. |
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Tightfisted .. You got me alll wrong .. Why Zip dont do systems .. never has never will .. Ive been in this game since 1966 ....... yes thats 43 years . been a bookie (race course ) been a bookie dog tracks . and for free to you and anyone reading this .. heres the showdown ... form will beat any system out of sight .. now retired .. only lay or bet on here and i do ok .
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how important is trainerform iyo , zip ?
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Glasgow Brain .. all form is important .... when a trainer / stable is in form .. they can win with the yard cat when things go wrong they cannot win with the stable champ ... It goes like that .... Ask any trainer .
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Take yesterday Deep Purple trainer Evan Williams three big winners within 35 mins .. Deep Purple .....Buck Mulligan... The Snail ... thats how it goes .. by the way zip backed The Snail ......... the nag slid home ... honest .
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G Brain ........ jockey form is way clear of trainer form .... Why top jocks have 5 or 6 mounts at each meeting ... maybe a mount in ever race ....... very few trainers can match that .... dont want to let the cat out of the bag. but you most get my drift ..
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what happens when betting is 9-4 the jolly, 5-2 2nd fav...race is off.. 2nd fav wins but is returned the 9-4 fav....don't forget these theoretical profit/loss figs are compiled after the race has ended....b4 the race u cannot be certain which hoss will be return fav in every race....
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''jockey form is way clear of trainer form .... Why top jocks have 5 or 6 mounts at each meeting ... maybe a mount in ever race ....... very few trainers can match that .... dont want to let the cat out of the bag. but you most get my drift ..''
dont get drift at all....trainerform is a reflection of well-being of string, jockeyform is just totalling up recent winners (or possibly also well-being of retained stable's string if he's riding most of them). How can jokey form be 'way clear' of trainer form? |
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I'm not convinced that a statistician would be very impressed with "trainer form" when it's taken to mean trends from month to month. Surely the data set is just too small to make inferences from and the "runs" of winners and losers are very rarely more than you would expect in a normal random distribution. My bots have big runs of wins and losses from time to time, but I'm pretty sure they don't have "form" and I've never been able to find any underlying reasons for these runs (and believe me- I've looked). It's normal to find groups in any set of data- they don't necessarily mean anything.
Obviously some trainers are better than others and in that sense they have form- but you can only apply that at a certain resolution. From year to year seems plausible to me, from one month to the next? I'm not so sure. I think the point being made about "jockey form" is that jockeys do at least ride in enough races to produce meaningful form data, furthermore the jockey is actually taking part in the race whereas the trainer's "form" comes seccond hand through the horse, IE the trainers form is divided up between all his horses whereas the jockey's isn't. If anyone has the data I imagine it would be relatively easy for a stats boffin to check whether trainers tend to have wins and losses in groups rather than in a normal randomly distributed way (although I wouldn't know how to do it myself). That would settle the question. |
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its old adage waiting for a bus then 3 come along at same time.
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you actually are a robot, aren't you. Strewth! What a load of rubbish. Have you ever followed horse racing?
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Aye Robot and Duncan .. heres how it works roughly.... Owners employ trainers .. trainers employ jockeys ..... so we have a trilogy......The jockeys having ridden 1000's of horses they would possibly know more than any owner or trainer.. about the horse ....but they have to be diplomatic.
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I, Robot, if you want to think outside the box and close the lid on the jackasses, I'll need your email if you want to find out about the 'if only'.
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Not read the cr@p on this thread but the simple answer is that on Betfair you bet either side of 100% .. There is NO edge per se in being bookie or punter...
So obviously..laying or backing fav loses you a bit (esp with commission) to win you need to be a bit ahead of market whatever side you play on... |
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Trainer form exists.
Unknown reason but well established fact, possibly horse biorhythms. Biorhythms sync across groups of animals that live together, incl humans. Some dodgy trainers, it may be synthetic. |
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Backing favourites is better in some months than others, though it all evens out on average, except at very short prices.
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The simple answer is that both the backer and the layer will lose exactly the same - hypothetically.
But it isn't quite that simple, there are literally hundreds of variables. Leaving aside all the extra variables such as discipline, staking, trainer, jockey and form, there are still hundreds of other variables. And that's what's wrong with a yes no answer. In short if both backer and layer wager on the same exact horses, at the same exact prices, for the same exact amounts, they will both lose the amount of commission they pay. Just to make it confusing, it does not mean that you cannot win, backing or laying EVERY favourite. The bottom line of profit or loss is the price you take either way. |
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Beat good to from you!
Are you still successfully laying in running? |
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Results calculated quickly from BSP results
Mon...Gross...5% Com...NET Jan..-78.74...-16.01...-94.75 Feb...-8.74...-28.51...-37.26 Mar...45.88...-25.74....20.13 Apr..-48.46...-26.73...-75.19 May..-22.64...-33.92...-56.56 Jun...35.84...-33.19.....2.65 JuL..-44.25...-31.09...-75.34 Aug...63.54...-33.48....30.06 Sep...63.97...-29.70....34.27 Oct..-10.09...-30.45...-40.54 Nov...60.32...-27.52....32.80 Dec....9.11....-9.26....-0.15 P/L...Gross...5% Com...NET Tot...65.72..-325.59..-259.87 |
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From Press Challenge for Dec
-0.94 The Favourite SP -4.07 Top Course Trainer |
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Hi moon,
I abandoned it because I found something better. Don't get me wrong, it does work, but it was taking up too much time, too many late nights (in Australia) and too much bandwidth. I'm now just laying like a bookie before the off, allowing for 5% vig. |
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i still do it regularly
it takes away form reading and decision making as its a random choice and its working so far. would you be willing ti divule wot you r doing now either on here or e-mail? i only ask as you was open about wot you did b4. if not no worries mate gl |
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I have no problem sharing.
The edge is never lost unless you have a method that never loses. You'd probably realise this as well, when a string of horses layed in running win race after race. It's the sticking with it, that makes it. I lay any horse that firms in betting 5% below the bookies opening quote. I usually lay two or three horses per race in increments of 10 ticks. That's really all there is to it. I usually have the greatest exposure on one horse, so I've layed it well below the bookies opening price less 5%. It works out that you lay well below top fluctuation, which is all anyone needs to make it successful. |
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beat the overround. give us an example please of all lays. i.e. 1.40 hereford
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Yeah an example would be good.
Ive got the idea ok but its better in black and white if poss. cheers |
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You might be laying well below opening show prices,but you will still be laying well over SP.Laying over SP on horses that have been strongly supported in the market isn't something I can recommend.
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I just had a dabble at this on the 4.55 Kempton.
Had 5 bets matched covering 3 horses. 2 bets on Seek averaging 6/4,opened 7/4,returned 11/8. 2 bets on Sunshine averaging 7/1,opened 17/2,returned 11/2 1 bet matched on Avertis at 9.5/1,opened 10/1 returned 15/2. So including commission,average odds matched were equal to or under opening show,but much higher than SP. |
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TTT,
I see your point, but don't think I've explained myself well enough. You missed the important part of my previous post... I usually lay two or three horses per race in increments of 10 ticks. Also you don't have to beat SP, this a complete furphy, you simply need to beat Top Fluctuation less 5% |
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bto
do you cancel at the off mate . |
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2 bets on Seek averaging 6/4,opened 7/4,returned 11/8.
2 bets on Sunshine averaging 7/1,opened 17/2,returned 11/2 1 bet matched on Avertis at 9.5/1,opened 10/1 returned 15/2. So Seek opened $2.75, you averaged $2.50, returned $2.37 You will still make money longterm, you just need to beat TF less 5% Do not stop at just one or two bets on a horse, I've had as much as 5 bets (50 ticks) matched on horses. The reason it works is that if say 5 bets are matched on one horse, and three on another, one horse drags down the exposure on another and you end up actually laying more money at a lower price dragging the average price down. |
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Hi BTO,
As you can see from the 4.55,I also had 3 horses matched.All 3 were opening show minus 5%,then 10 ticks below these prices were offered (2 taken) A pleasing end result in the 5.25,but again miles over SP on the two I was matched on. |