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Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?

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By:
artie
When: 15 Feb 10 02:33
.
By:
Money Chaser
When: 17 Feb 10 12:26
BTO, do you use a certain bookmaker for the opening show? Also whereabouts in Melbourne do you reside?
By:
artie
When: 21 Feb 10 12:29
.
By:
zipper
When: 27 Feb 10 13:40
Good Afternoon Tightfist .. thanks for the coms .. Please stay in the naps table .. why well even me cannot pull up 50 points in 3 days .. any how see you go for Fistral Beach today Aint that some were in Cornwall .. well that long term loser Postdata and 4 other napsters pick that nag .. my info from the mole told me Fistral beach is all wased up ... and zip has laid it big .. never mind the postdata will be on 23 run tomorrow ..... its only a bit of fun .. not much when are doiing your nuts ......zip
By:
zipper
When: 27 Feb 10 13:49
Tightfist this Fistral Beach Is 7/2 fav the horse is not IS NOT in the H/C proper and its fav we got 13 horses against the nag .. ive laid and will lay again ..... and pay with a smile if zip is wrong ...
By:
zipper
When: 27 Feb 10 13:57
Tightfist No aftertiming here 14.53 .. if this nag wins i lose a bungle .. if it gets beat The wife and the Nurse dont need to know . we still go to our fav eating place tonight ....
By:
zipper
When: 27 Feb 10 15:24
Boom.... Champagne all round.... ladies first. Did you notice £328k on this Fistral Beach, my mole was right it was tailed off.
But...1.7 million bet on the race.... 24 Nap boys played. The 1 horse ....5 naps, the 2 Horse ....6 naps, the 7 Horse, most popular nap of the day.....9 naps, your horse 14.......5 naps, all of them got beat. The winner No 8... no naps. Now I know you are a stickler for stats, in the 2.30 The Nightingale was Mr A K 's naap, he's been right 62 times this year.Barry the Bismark the big mouth says it was his lay of the day & the big mouth was wrong again.Tell me the last time Barry had 62 out of 120 ?
By:
freddiewilliams
When: 27 Feb 10 15:26
unseated at the second!
By:
zipper
When: 27 Feb 10 15:27
4.25...... it a bit late for me ... but i had to say that ...... thats zipper out ... like they say see you later....... god bless ....
By:
Tightfisted
When: 27 Feb 10 17:57
No mention of Wolf Moan, your nap, PU, so you ended up square zip. ;)
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 21 Apr 10 22:16
.
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 21 Apr 10 22:16
.
By:
tobermory
When: 22 Apr 10 01:07
interesting
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 28 Apr 10 22:26
very interesting
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 02 May 10 22:22
for reference purposes
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 17 May 10 22:55
.
By:
bacontrout.
When: 29 May 14 18:38
..
By:
kenilworth
When: 29 May 14 23:54
Why has this thread been pulled up?
By:
Capt__F
When: 29 May 14 23:58
old favourite
By:
bacontrout.
When: 30 May 14 01:01
something I read just reminded me of it ken, thought id drag it back up
By:
kenilworth
When: 30 May 14 12:51
No reponse and I'm not surprised.
By:
Lex
When: 31 May 14 15:06
Oh, alright I'll bite...

Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?


Well it works for me ! Cool
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 02 Jun 14 21:51
well done Lex Cool
By:
kenilworth
When: 02 Jun 14 23:31

Well it works for me !


Not laying blind does it work.
By:
Lex
When: 03 Jun 14 10:08
If you beat fav ISP by about 16% then a £100 bank turns into 20k in 8 weeks. 2.5% of the bank ratchet staking every UK horse race. (If you know how to get matched and dont do silly bets)
By:
kenilworth
When: 03 Jun 14 13:32
a £100 bank into 20K in 8 weeks?

yeah, OK.
By:
Lex
When: 03 Jun 14 19:25
Yup. Compound it an you will see.
By:
Lex
When: 03 Jun 14 19:32
tell you what, Kenilworth give me any date in the last 10 years and I will go back 8 weeks from that date and lets see what the tally is.... might not be 20k but it will close !
By:
Lex
When: 03 Jun 14 19:37
your birthday Kenilworth is 04 Nov 2005

so if you started with a 100 quid 8 weeks prior to your birthday you will have



10-09-2005, 33.33%, £108.15  +8.1%
11-09-2005, 30.77%, £103.06   ---4.7%
12-09-2005, 32.14%, £104.14  +1%
13-09-2005, 14.29%, £147.12  +41.3%
14-09-2005, 23.81%, £192.69  +31%
15-09-2005, 25.93%, £232.72  +20.8%
16-09-2005, 32.14%, £255.6  +9.8%
17-09-2005, 30%, £251.37   ---1.7%
18-09-2005, 40%, £221.23   ---12%
19-09-2005, 30.77%, £233.78  +5.7%
20-09-2005, 30.77%, £299.88  +28.3%
21-09-2005, 25%, £343.02  +14.4%
22-09-2005, 25%, £424.62  +23.8%
23-09-2005, 29.63%, £428.31  +0.9%
24-09-2005, 22.92%, £616  +43.8%
25-09-2005, 36.84%, £629.11  +2.1%
26-09-2005, 23.81%, £749.78  +19.2%
27-09-2005, 33.33%, £745.89   ---0.5%
28-09-2005, 32.14%, £840.37  +12.7%
29-09-2005, 27.27%, £939.55  +11.8%
30-09-2005, 33.33%, £1087.09  +15.7%
01-10-2005, 27.66%, £975.39   ---10.3%
02-10-2005, 28.57%, £1195.75  +22.6%
03-10-2005, 34.48%, £1063.3   ---11.1%
04-10-2005, 35%, £989.06   ---7%
05-10-2005, 35%, £1110.36  +12.3%
06-10-2005, 42.11%, £1114.15  +0.3%
07-10-2005, 35.71%, £859.86   ---22.8%   !
08-10-2005, 37.5%, £776.31   ---9.7%
09-10-2005, 25.64%, £1059.66  +36.5%
10-10-2005, 14.29%, £1458.43  +37.6%
11-10-2005, 50%, £1347.24   ---7.6%
12-10-2005, 46.43%, £906.77   ---32.7%   !
13-10-2005, 37.04%, £891.5   ---1.7%
14-10-2005, 47.62%, £694.76   ---22.1%   !
15-10-2005, 19.51%, £1578.83  +127.2%
16-10-2005, 32.35%, £1817.29  +15.1%
17-10-2005, 23.81%, £2150.05  +18.3%
18-10-2005, 38.1%, £2160.9  +0.5%
19-10-2005, 22.58%, £2951.77  +36.6%
20-10-2005, 25%, £3385.39  +14.7%
21-10-2005, 36.36%, £3630.36  +7.2%
22-10-2005, 19.15%, £6915.59  +90.5%
23-10-2005, 39.39%, £6244.11   ---9.7%
24-10-2005, 30.43%, £6466.9  +3.6%
25-10-2005, 15.38%, £8100.68  +25.3%
26-10-2005, 36.36%, £9163.63  +13.1%
27-10-2005, 38.1%, £9943.97  +8.5%
28-10-2005, 45%, £9011.72   ---9.4%
29-10-2005, 25%, £11813.45  +31.1%
30-10-2005, 31.82%, £12355.01  +4.6%
31-10-2005, 27.03%, £16804.24  +36%
01-11-2005, 42.11%, £16933.46  +0.8%
02-11-2005, 41.38%, £17917.31  +5.8%
03-11-2005, 42.86%, £19008.26  +6.1%
04-11-2005, 39.29%, £19351.79 +1.8%



£19k !!!! Happy Birthday ! Laugh
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 03 Jun 14 20:13
getting matched is the hard part
By:
kenilworth
When: 04 Jun 14 09:01
Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?

Above is the question asked.
By:
kenilworth
When: 04 Jun 14 10:38
According to the RP nap table, backing the
unnamed favourite in every race so far this
season would show a loss of £5.69 to a level
£1stake, (that is backing in every race in
line with the OP question)
By:
Lex
When: 04 Jun 14 12:01
Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?
Above is the question asked.


Thats Laying, not Backing.

And as I've shown, it does work. All you got to do is get matched at 16% less than industry SP.

You can do this in running, or by dutching.
or you just stake over a series to get back the spread rather than the whole loss.
and many others...
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 04 Jun 14 14:33
230 nott Fav 7/4 unmatched
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 04 Jun 14 14:54
230 southwell 7/4 fav not matched
250 nott      5/4 fav not matched
By:
kenilworth
When: 04 Jun 14 14:59
Lex, put up an example please, it seems to me
offering a price in running of 16% below industry
price, you will guarantee to lay every winner,
but not every loser.
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 04 Jun 14 15:15
Layed every winning favourite so far, not matched on the only 2 beaten
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 04 Jun 14 15:23
Clubland 3.20 first matched winning lay
By:
iprefertolay
When: 04 Jun 14 16:15
Be prepared Tame, Lex is gonna tell you to Martingale your losses.
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 04 Jun 14 16:23
already did that Excited
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