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it is worthwhile to invest the time to study rather than going about it the way you are.I do not mean to insult you honestly but take my advice as horse racing is a complicated math system.
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good luck today. i tried to read the latest posts but i find reading off a computer screen a nightmare so i only had a quick glance through
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I don't look into exceling into horse racing punting. In fact, while it is exciting, I find it cruel to the animals, especially when they make them jump over stuff. This for me is WTF. What I am doing is trying fill in the gap until next football season, and creating this thread not around the horses but around the people who tip them. If this is +EV by then I'll stick to it for as long as I can. If I were having ambitions towards horse racing however, I'd look back to this thread as it provides a lot of interesting info.
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the persuit of profit is always interesting.!!
Have a nice day |
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Cheers John. I'm sorry for them. I just couldn't express myself any shorter. We had a good discussion with 'forward' yesterday. In two words, he thinks I'm totally wrong for doing this because horse racing punting is about your own opinion built around solid research. I tried to explain to him that, whilst I totally agree with him, my approach is way different, and is basically based around people's opinions which are proven to be wrong and are bound to be wrong in the future due to the pressure of having to tip avery single horse, and the bonus of that horse being overbet more often than not.
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U2 theonlywayforward, GL if you're punting today.
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it wasnt your long posts, i just find it hard to read off a computer screen for long. i got the jist of whay you two were saying. i think your approach has struck a chord with a lot of people judging by the number of posts... i mean a huge % of betting shop punters must read spotlight and be influenced by it at some point.
i always read the spotlight, its just a habit. im sure i was influenced by it at times when i was in the bookies most days just passing time putting a few bets on - even though its just somebodys opinion. its crazy how you can be influenced by things when gambling. how many runners from big stables are overbet in poor races? how often are punters drawn towards famous colours in poor races at lesser tracks? how many mccoy mounts go off way shorter than they should, even though they have a leading chance? all of these possible angles (they are no more than that) are based on human behaviour/opinions - which are impossible things to quantify. but do the reasons for your "edge" really matter as long as you find an edge? |
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Ivor 06 Jul 14:01
interesting aproach shapeshifter but as soon as you drop your 'weakest' - a.n.other becomes your 'weakest' ;) The secret: is not to drop your weakest ;) ;) |
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2009-07-06
14:53 8377087309 2009-07-06 13:50 GB Muss 6th Jul / 14:45 To Be Placed / Baizically Lay 2.26 30.00 Won |
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all of these possible angles (they are no more than that) are based on human behaviour/opinions - which are impossible things to quantify. but do the reasons for your "edge" really matter as long as you find an edge?
Exactly! And let's be fair, it's so much easier to predict a human's behaviour than a horse's one. |
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I just KNEW you were going to say that! :)
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LOL Ivor!
Ok, then, was Heliorbea with a 59%+ chance? I listened to race, Gibbons took a risk, gased the Gaselee, and the horse didn't melt down. I'd like to hear somebody who knows something about horses why did Heliorbea went from 1.8+ to...I layed it@1.66. The horse was staying whereever they they stay before the race, parading or whatever you call it. |
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I'll be honest, it's kinda hard not to call it a day now.
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all selections have lost today so far, i hope you have layed them all
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That's why I have an itch to stopping for the day, while I'm ahead.
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Kefo4 allways pack it in at 4.00pm .. why tell you later ....... zipper .
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still no winners today!
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Ladbybokes and Billtyhills have 3000 shops between them and the prices can be changed after 4pm at the flick of a button.
Many presbyterians are desperate to claw back their losses and will lump their bus money on the last races, so they will. This distorts things and take into account the activities of the British.... Well say no more..... |
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zipper 06 Jul 16:26
Kefo4 allways pack it in at 4.00pm .. why tell you later ....... zipper . Do Bookmakers shut up shop when they are having a good day? 2009 Grand National, springs to mind |
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Sure, why not lose when another horse has been backed@1.01.
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Absolutely gutted. I needed just one horse to lose from the last three to secure profit for the day. All three won.
Losers for the day: Cmon you Irons@5.1 Classic Colori@3.65 Acquisition@2.56 Montiboli@4.2 Turjuman@5.8 Eastern warrior@2.3 Units lost: 0.52 Total growth: 0.3% Bank:119.79 I feel robbed honestly. |
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18/24 strike rate.
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Spotlight selections that were beaten favourites last time out.
Results for Saturday 04/07/09 Beve 2.15 Trinder LOST 3.50 Hayd 3.30 Falcativ LOST 9.56 Sand 5.30 Raaeidd LOST 3.13 Carl 8.35 Mount Hadley WON 8.84 (ouch!) Carl 9.05 Island Chief LOST 3.98 Results for Sunday 05/07/09 Ayr 2.40 Count Bertoni LOST 2.88 Brig 4.30 Monashee Rock LOST 5.41 Ayr 5.10 Toy Top LOST 4.07 Results for Monday 06/07/09 Muss 4.15 Vilnius LOST 2.16 Wind 7.00 Super Fourteen LOST 8.60 Wind 8.00 State Banquet LOST 2.88 Ripo 9.20 Eastern Warrior WON 2.23 For anyone that's interested there are five 'Spotlight BF last time out' selections tomorrow which are easy to locate via the Racing Post website. |
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kef4o ---- love your idea mate and i wish you all the best , however i do feel youd have a better chance if you added some filters to your picks
i.e jockey/ trainer form at the meeting --- -current trainer form -- --type of race - -ground opposition - ---handicap mark etc etc . I dont honestly believe that these tipsters spend too much time on choosing their horses and would more than likely be rushed to meet deadlines etc . i wish you all the best but i just feel it seems "too easy " just to lay all the spotlight and make a profit . |
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theonlywayforward 06 Jul 12:46
245 and 850 best chances of making profit. 2009-07-06 20:59 8380623656 2009-07-06 19:57 GB Ripon 6th Jul / 20:50 To Be Placed / Regal Lyric Lay 5.50 50.00 Won 2009-07-06 14:53 8377087309 2009-07-06 13:50 GB Muss 6th Jul / 14:45 To Be Placed / Baizically Lay 2.26 30.00 Won |
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case closed
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Brian, so far none of these filters would have done me any particular good. The results point out to a particular track that has cost me. Today it was Windsor. Also, if I were to filter out stuff, that'd mean I'd have to have an opinion on a particular race. This is what I don't want to do. Because I would suck at it.
Yeah, laying horses can really suck I guess. I've been grinding for four days, and I am back to where I was. Three losing days, one winning day. If I were to do it manually I'd have broken something by now. And the fact that if Turjuman hadn't won I'd have been back on track really**ed me off. Anyway, thanks for the support, mate. I'm struggling right now b/c this thing underperforms and people come on here with sound arguments against what I'm doing, but I'll stick to the game plan. I see you had a good day theonlywayforward, but don't brush me off just yet. |
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91% strike record .
Before you learn how to drive it is important to understand the engine.!!!!!! |
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theonlywayforward 06 Jul 23:33
91% strike record . Before you learn how to drive it is important to understand the engine.!!!!!! No, I don't. I actually have just a vague idea of how it works. I use free mechanics service to keep my engine running. I just use the break, and the gas to make sure that I don't crash but at the same time come home in time. ;) (Alright, there is no such thing as a free mechanics service but you know what I mean by the methafor.) |
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Think i will buy you some l plates.Ha.
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Unlucky today kef4o , I've been punting systematically since I hit on something I was comfortable with in August 2007 and have been full time since then , personally I haven't had a horse bet with an expressed view since that time and doubt I ever will again tbh.
The learning pts for me prior to that date over a couple of years were the following....... -Don't incorporate filters to a system you're confident will be a winner long term , you will fall into the trap of filtering to eliminate individual race losses and will most certainly tweak more often than is healthy. -Don't keep daily records or judge any performance on a daily basis , I keep a long term continious spreadsheet with a cumulative total and pay no regard to daily performances , the race card content is beyond anyone's control and if you're confident in your system there's no telling how many percentage green days to expect anyway and it should be irrelevant ( plus daily expectations will drive you insane and human nature will mean you'll tweak your system ) -Find a staking plan that suits your long term expectations v your available bankroll and build in growth as your profit builds. -Review the strategy every 3 months , resist the temptation to tweak unless certain. The above is not everyone's cup of tea and open to ridicule but it works for me , I love systematic punting now and will never revert back to studying form and all the other time consuming things that go with it , btw I need a spreasheet as well as my betfair a/c as I use bookmakers for around 85% of my stakes. Very best of luck with your project and will watch with interest , just be comfortable you have the correct long term strategy. |
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-Don't incorporate filters to a system you're confident will be a winner long term , you will fall into the trap of filtering to eliminate individual race losses and will most certainly tweak more often than is healthy.
I don't really plan b/c as said several times before, this would mean expressing an opinion, and my opinion is worthless. -Don't keep daily records or judge any performance on a daily basis , I keep a long term continious spreadsheet with a cumulative total and pay no regard to daily performances , the race card content is beyond anyone's control and if you're confident in your system there's no telling how many percentage green days to expect anyway and it should be irrelevant ( plus daily expectations will drive you insane and human nature will mean you'll tweak your system ) I present daily growth just to keep a sort of a diary really. I know that we are talking about a continuos process, and that's why I would stop at 4 o'clock as zipper and UJ pointed out as possible filter. In essence it doesn't make sense. I will admit that as a gambling degen, I do want to chase losses but I can't really do it in horse racing b/c I am clueless here, and the odds are too high. The figure That I am focused on when thinking abput performance is the total growth. -Find a staking plan that suits your long term expectations v your available bankroll and build in growth as your profit builds. My staking plan is the only thing I'm really confident about, and I am yet to be critisized for it, so that's a good sign. -Review the strategy every 3 months , resist the temptation to tweak unless certain. I plan to do it in the beginning of September, just goes well together with my life schedule. It's good to know that it's been done by somebody else HAYDEN. ;) |
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yes I suspect systematic punting is quite popular but doubt any of us use the same strategy or selection process and all have our different likes and dislikes , stopping at 4pm is interesting but can't believe anyone ( even zipper ) could convince me to stop my system at that precise time every day , would make no sense to my selection process , also from your point of view you will find a day when you lose 10pts in the afternoon and win 12pts after 4pm , both scenario's will happen from time to time.
Good luck. |
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Kefo, I read your thread from start to finish for the first time this afternoon and:
(1) I know even less about horse racing than you and am also not interested in keeping up with trainer's form and/or horses that likes going left-handed etc etc. I just think that everybody will always know more than me and probably have a better 'feel' than me anyway. But I have been noting the lowest 3 matched in 90% of races for the last year and now lay the field (usually at less than 2.00 obviously) for certain types of races at certain courses. Hence this afternoon I had some free time as either (a) nothing fitted or (b) I had insufficient stats to merit betting and so I read your thread. The one big thing that held me back with my 'system' was laying the field very low e.g. 1.10. Simple example: 20 races - 3 times 1.10 or lower matched but did not win. So, 17 times - 1 unit = - 17. But 3 times x 9 units profit = 27. Net profit (very approx) 10 units. But in the past, I found it very difficult to cope with 17 losses even though I knew long term I would win. All that background is just to show that I'm trying (and now succeeding) with the same non-racing knowledge. (2) I tried your Spotlight system last year and it took 10 minutes to click this afternoon that it was the same! Confirms how little I know! I was merely taking the RP's picks (as shown by the initials at the end of their race summary) and laying for 1 unit. I then kept records by the tipster and was amazed that some are still employed. Or then possibly not as 1 guy had a record of 13 selections with 1 win and 12 losses. I am not sure why I stopped. Perhaps it was because it was so many days were + 3 - 2, +4 - 3 etc. and therefore very slow progress. I found my spreadsheets tonight and they only cover 1 month but overall, you would be in profit - particularly when excluding prices over 8/1. One day they had a 16/1 winner and obviously you need 16 races to just pull level again. (3) Please keep going and I respectfully suggest the following: (a) Keep records by the tipster - not sure about your 'course' comments but no harm in noting that as well. (b) Another angle similar to the 'last race BF' - excellent post that! What I found odd was that some days, their 'Spotlight' was not tipped by any other paper or by just one more tipster. (You do gain a lot by noting everything as other angles/ideas will suddenly appear). So, my one month's records showed that if you layed the Spotlight selection when there was a maximum of 2 tipsters (Spotlight and 1 other) for: £ 100 Liability (but excluding horses with SP of 8/1 or higher) + £ 393.68 (before comm and PC). 85 selections - 13 were correct but 72 lost. One caveat: The prices I noted are Bookies prices and not Betfair - but as they are less than 8/1, I do not think the difference is huge. (4) Hope this makes sense. Apologies for tyoing/grammatical errors etc etc. |
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GL to you too HAYDEN,
Roger, I don't have the time right now to keep record. If I'm not satisfied with the results I'll quit the whole thing altogether. I don't know how can I tell when a certain tipster is tipping a race. How do you obtain that info? |
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HAYDEN
Excuse me not up to speed on this thread but, are you a backer or a layer ? |
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both
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How do you decide what price you are going to lay at ?
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HAYDEN
are you backing/laying to a) Betfair SP b) Just before the off to available prices c) Early morning to available d) mid morning d) Lunch e) Some other |
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Roger OASIS 06 Jul 23:24
One caveat: The prices I noted are Bookies prices and not Betfair - but as they are less than 8/1, I do not think the difference is huge. Makes a massive difference, certainly enough to make a winning system a big losing system. |