I said I will get some stick, not hit by a falling seuioa! lol I'll get back to your post later on, IM. :)

67% zip .........

Hayden - don't know if you are still looking in, but was interested in what you have said.

Do you mind me asking - are you backing to level stakes?

However, as from the comments you have in bold above, you are in that camp.......well certainly after a few drinks you are anyway.........:D....so all I can do is indicate that stats are an important part in weighing up a race....

I wasn't drunk. :P Honest.

Take the 5.00 race yesterday where the result was -


If you just looked at the bare race record of the favourite......it had ran far more times than the horse that won............and had failed to win a race! now how complicated is that "information" !

The horse that won had a fairly strong record over 4 races .....and been 2nd a few times.

I suspect that was a fixed race just so that you can put it on here, and support your argument. Kidding, Horse racing is not being fixed! :D


Both had fitness advantage over the other 3 year old horses in race..........and both horses were not "cheap" purchases.

Does it really say the staff about the fitness condition of the horses? That's not stats, it's current situation reflection.

The chances were the favourite would be beaten by TIMES UP, as the winner was relatively unexposed compared to the favourite ( now this happens regularly, and is not unusual, so the example is appropriate ). The favourite had had numerous chances and failed to win.....so why should it win that race ??????

'Unexposed' always perplexes me when put in racing context.

OK - the only other danger was the expensive purchase Alqaffay............but this was a 4 year old horse carrying extra weight ......and the going was Good to Soft.......therefore the circumstances of race made it unlikely it would win.......IMO it could have grabbed 2nd .......but was not given a hard ride......

That's insider information if you include it in your bet decision, isn't it?

So how difficult was that race to weigh up on "form"??????

If a punter gets it wrong on such a race, then it is because they don't understand stats, nor importance of all the conditions of a race.........................don't blame the stats for their ignorance....just blame their ignorance !

Conditions and stats are two different things. Back to the Wimbledon final, I had a bet on Venus, and watched the match. Venus collapsed in front of me. Something just went wrong. The current situation indicated that she would lose despite stats. But the 'don't chase, you plank' thought prevailed, and I lost on the game.


I agree with much of what you say re how difficult it can be for other more complicated races for a punter to take it all in etc However, again it is only down to the punter not being capable of weighing up more complicated races.....where the information is there , but they can't "see" it etc

Punters are blinded by hype.....so they back favourites often.........but if they were capable of understanding more, or took the time to study a race in more detail ( if they know what to look for etc ), then they would be better in discerning which favourites, at the odds, are more a lay than a back.

Correct me if I'm wrong but favourites are such mainly b/c they've ran good previously, or b/c A. P. McCoy will be hanging his ass over them for the next two-three miles, or b/c Paul Nichols has trained them. Form stuff. Why was that horse a fav@17:00? I really don't know but there must've been some indicators drwan from form.

So when you say - " Form doesn't really say what will really happen when those horses start running "...............generally you are just well wrong. I think you should state PUNTERS , who have not studied stats etc, don't know what really happen when horses start running!!!!!!

The ones who have studied the stats etc will have a better idea than those that don't ! ]:)

There is only one thing that I've seen stats get right over the time, and that's who's going to hit the front first...in middle distances I think. Other than that, how can you tell by form which horse would fall over a hursle during the race? Or which market leader will be blocked by the field? (On the radio, they refer to this as the horse being unlucky, or sometimes the jockey being useless.)

There were numerous occasions yesterday , and every day, when knowledge of stats helps to indicate horses that may do well due to conditions of race at the time of year etc.


zipper is one of better, more knowledgeable guys on here, so don't lay his nap selections in YOUR COMPETITION forum ( DIVISION 1), as he has a positive tally at SP odds for this year SO FAR .........and I agree with his general comments, done in a helpful way, re - blindly laying the spotlight selections in long term won't produce much profit...if any...WITHOUT FILTERING SELECTIONS ETC.

I wouldn't lay his tips.

GL with bets anyway ........

Cheers!

Oh forgot to say......... I Love My Wife .. Sometimes she reads this at weekends .

Today's unit is 62 cent.

Btw, there is great chance that I'll quit this. Now that the conditions have changed, I wouldn't have the benefit if laying shorter due to overbetting.

Did someone suggest. that laying only Spotlights- BF's, selections, would show a profit?
Just tried to find today's Spotlight 'tips', and BF's but cannot access them, unless, 'Join the Club'

kef4o 08 Jul 11:16
Btw, there is great chance that I'll quit this. Now that the conditions have changed, I wouldn't have the benefit if laying shorter due to overbetting.

If you followed propuntas "Todays Lays" thread you'll have seen the odds of his selections start to shoot out to ridiculous levels as more and more forumites started laying them. Same will happen here.

Let the thread drift off the radar if you don't want to kill your new found golden-laying goose

Do you really think I didn't think it over before opening the thread? This thing needs devotion beyond anybody would want commit. Plus, you can see this after a click on the purple. It's not my thread that will stop the world.

Kefo - I'm prepared to go to 500 losses in a row for 1 of my strategies..................so what is a few losses in a row IF you know you have an edge...................................]:)

All you have to do is lay another tipster's fancies.........................selectively :D

Back to vorkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

No, seriously, I'm starting to worry a bit. If the prices go to a higher average, I might throw the tower.

DFC And KEF .. Spot light has allready banked Misheer (My NAp ) and Goldikova
You guys fancy your chances on 5.30 Last Three Minutes .. dont be shy .

FFS, don't rub it in, zip!

Horse Racing Catt 8th Jul : 2m Hcap Showing 1 - 5 of 5 Selections
Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Bergonzi 27.56 2.00 Back 08-Jul-09 15:25 53.12
Bergonzi * 1.75 24.00 Lay -18.00
Fin Vin De Leu * 3.72 10.00 Back -10.00
Fin Vin De Leu 1.80 12.00 Lay 08-Jul-09 15:25 12.00
Luna Landing 6.40 2.00 Back 08-Jul-09 15:28 -2.00
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 41.12
Lay subtotal: -6.00
Market subtotal: 35.12
Commission @ 4.9%: 1.72
Net Market Total: 33.40


I backed BERGONZI to beat my nap in comp :D:D :D .....and it did :(

End of thread

*lost

These kids no FA ...........and thats not aftertiming ........ zip

zipper is a clown

Right, well I'm sorry to say it in a way but I'm off until September. I'll be home and I can't run the bot there. When I started the thread, I thought I'd be able to give it a try at least until the end of the month but as it turned out I'm going home earlier.

The golden egg thing: I'll say it again, the whole world has access to those statistics, and they are adjusted to market prices. I mean wtf? Is MY thread going to wake the world up?

Will I be laying the spotlight when I come back? Most likely not. I'll keep betting on horses probably but I'll switch to something else which I don't want to share on the forum. The reasons are three. One, I'm not sure whether the subscription will kill my value but it's likely to affect it. It's just not the same thing anymore. Two, I hope that my other plan proves me right and turns out to be more profitable than this. Third, I noted patterns in the market that might be expoitable for trading and stuff, and the things that unfolded in front of me present me with tons of value.

Now, am I chickening out? No. As a matter of fact, in September I plan to add actual value to my thread. Everybody knows how to lay the spotlight, they don't need my guidance. Only note is, lay it as late as possible.

I'll turn my head to football. I won't tell the selection method. but it's basically three, four daily lays, mostly on favorites. I'll use the same staking plan, which I find by far the best thing I've contributed to the thread if anyting.

IN A NUTSHELL, THIS IS MY PHILOSOPHY. IF SOMEONE SUCKS, LAY HIS BETS, AND IF YOU BEAT THE RAKE YOU'LL MAKE PROFIT.