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Hi kef4o - this is a fascinating thread and has had some of the best comments on it I have seen so thanks for that. Personally I think unless you watch every race it is impossible to make a profit using things like horses form, going, weight etc. And anyway who wants to do that all the time.
So I too have looked for quite a long time now at a systematic approach without any real regard for horses form. I have never used Spotlight and thought his first name was George so it is a surprise for me to find he has multiple identities. I wish you well but if you stick at it you will find you automatically will add some of your own riders to your selections. In a different thread I found Shapeshifters comments very helpful as his riders were major and not fiddly. For myself I found whatever system I was trying I could not get them into profit if I layed on a Saturday. By making that simple change of having Saturday off I have been able to make a profit. I cant even make a paper profit on a Saturday. So I think you will realise at some point there is no point in laying at a certain track or day or in the evening if you find you are always losing at that time. I hope you persevere and thanks again for this thread. |
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Hi
The porblem that reoccurs in the replies to most of these types of threads is that members clearly cannot seem to view any strategy other than through a very small window of results/experience. Consequently we have Saturdays working and then not working. Laying the naps does the business and then it doesn't. The best analogy I can use is that you are trying to find your way to another city by getting on your knees and staring at the ground. When you get to the end of the road and you have not arrived you change direction. Any successful systematic bettor will tell you that the one thing that will astound you even after you have developed successful methods is the turnaround times. In other words the length of periods you have to endure when its not going well or simply treading water. This is why systematic players need never fear about some of their ideas being factored into the market, the market is on its knees staring at then pavement. |
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some other , only approx 15% of business carried out on betfair and never use or act on data of less than 2 years consecutive , in my view statistics don't give you answers they just provoke questions.
good luck joshuag. |
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Is it raining in the UK?
TIA |
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I hate to break this to the author of this thread but this idea is not going to work. There is not enough loss in spotlights tips to offset the overlay and the commision paid and still result in a worthwhile profit. You may have a good year this year or perhaps a bad one but in the long run you will just about break even.
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Cheers, maven.
Josh, two things. 1. Had I layed all the horses so far, the longer odds as well I'd have been right on schedule with my minimum expectations of 1 units per day growth. 2. I know of many other systems that are losing in the long term. If I break even in the long term, I'll take it. :) |
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SPOTLIGHT since 25th April
541 winners from 2127 picks (74.6% SR if laying) Laying profit after 4% commission - £100 stake - £19,471 Highest price winner 16/1 (3 times!) |
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at bedquack SP btw
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Ok then, since this is about discipline, I'll share with you my**-up. I had the wrong horse layed@15:00 pontefract. I layed Dove instead of Laughting boy, and Dove won. I did the mistake b/c I had selected the horse from RP site, and got confused. So the spotlight produced a lose, and I layed a winner. Due to this fact I had a bet on the tennis, and am about to win exactly what I would have won if I hadn't done this mistake plus the stake. I wouldn't have had this bet otherwise, and this is why I will add the amount to the my donkey bank. Muggish, I know but at least it worked out ok in the end(about to).
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So Ioana Raluca Olaru, a hot Romanian tennis player at my age has saved me here. I hope I don't have any more mistakes like this one.
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Alpha, did you do this manually? If you used Excel pls ahre the method, and thank you very much for the info.
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Please don't go tits up like yesterday.
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Kef4o .. why pick on spot light .. in that post selection box each day there are 15 / 16 tipsters ...... and there all has bad as each other over a say a year .. it all comes down to form .. you got to ask yourself this .. can the nag win if yes back it .. can the nag lose . if yes so lay it . If you have no real opinion stay out . It dont matter ( how many ) picked the nag ... or who did not pick the nag (how few ).... Have a sound grip of the form book and you will beat them tipsters out of sight .... ZIP.
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Fair enough, zip. I may not have the best value out of my idea. But this needs some time. I'll give it revision in September, and if I'm not happy, I'll com back to the begining, and look for the best**tail of tweaks. I think you'd agree that it's fairly early to jump into conlusions.
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Kef4o Now dont take this wrong ... It may be fairly early for you .. But old zipper has stats going back years on this sort of thing .. And i will tell you for free ..... It dont work .. Only telling you that cause you come over as a Mr nice guy .. take it or leave it ... dont matter to me ..
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Thanks a lot, zip! I'll keep it in mind.
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lol - telling zipper where to get off!
Incidentally - I started by looking at Spottie and RPR etc. years ago. I couldn't find a prophet backing or laying - DUMPED. |
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Kef40 - dont be put off by negative comments - Zipper has made exactly the same comments on Union Jacks thread about laying Alan Keytes naps and that is nicely in profit. And he also doesnt bother reading the thread properly as you have stated that you dont want a process based on your own opinion as to whether the horse may win or lose. His comments are totally unhelpful.
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well said maven , the comments most unhelpful I would imagine are the ones trying to ram the form book down your throat when you've already stated numerous times it's something you're not remotely interested in , I can relate to that myself as i've spent a lifetime in the industry but have certainly read my last form book 2 years ago.
best of luck and long live systematically driven punting. |
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It was high time things went up!
Losers for the day: Beauchamp Viceroy@1.58 Diamond laura@2.04 Mahiki@2.88 Swiss art@1.86 George thisby@2.4 14/19 winners Units won: 4.62 Starting bank: 119.46 Current bank: 122.56 Total growth: 2.6% Back on track, that's an average one unit per day. 883 days to go. :) |
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Guys, I kinda got used to the fact that I'll have to repeat the same stuff over and over again. Zipper just expressed an opinion based on his experience(I hope at least). He said he just wants to share it and not force it, and that can't be bad.
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Good stuff in this fred, voices of experience are well worth listening to.
The only thing the form book and the stats can't tell you is whether a particular horse/team/player is going out with the intention of winning, or at least doing their best. The only clue you might get is late/sudden market moves in the run-up to the off. Steamers lose, drifters win... the skill is reading the markets trying to detect the fake moves. Following a tipster blindly backing or laying takes all of the above out of the equation, and I see no harm in that. If it works, good luck!. |
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I used excel
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how would you detect a fake move john ????
could you give me an example please ? |
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sorry GB, I wouldn't be able to see a fake move if it bit me on the arsenal. Maybe I worded it wrongly calling it a 'fake' move, but I guess you know where I'm coming from.
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Anyone that believes stats ain't useful .....is someone who basically does not note anything from stats........I am referring to horse racing.....!!!!
However, the creator of thread has stated they don't want to use form etc...........so I agree with zipper that laying systematically a tipsters horses without any appraisal of the selection is just like playing Russian roulette with all bullets in chamber! If you can apply some filters to selections, then you have a chance to make it pay ....otherwise I suspect you will not make much progress betting this way. GL with bets. |
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http://www.besttipping.com**tipcheck/?action=allcompare
^^^historical trend. Also, chack Alpha centauri's reply, reflecting real conditions without PC. kef4o 06 Jul 01:53 Laying spotlight is not the way long term.You are going against yourself some of what you say as you are using the history of what spotlights results have shown you. It is not as straightforward as that. The spotlight is not a system. It's people. Furthermore, it's people who know their racing, and watch more races per week than I'll watch sports in the next 10 years(probably). They should be profitable punters themselves. They look in a race from more than one point of view, and create a complicated opinion. Yet, they have so far underrformed. Why? Because they bet on every race, thus losing their edge in the process. All I do is take advantage of that. So while I'm drawing conclusions from their history as to what my reasonable expections should be it is not the only reason why I have chosen to lay them. Also, the Spotlight does tend to be overbet imo, which from a layer's perspective is a good thing and increases value. ^This is my complicated explanation for my method. |
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Spotlight's tips are free, and they are bound to be -EV. Why? Well, imagine if the Spotlight's tips were +EV. The most popular tip on every single race to be +EV. Bookies wouldn't exist, or would adjust so that the prices of the horses were so low that the tips become -EV again. I'm not laying at the bookies' prices but then again, the Spotlight isn't winning at exchange prices either.
^^^Let's call this 'reality check'. |
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Probably some confusion and cross purposes of where we're all coming from here tbh , whilst I admit to being a systematic gambler for the last couple of years I have never given any thought to laying an individual tipster until reading this and the AK thread , wouldn't have a view on whether it will work long term or not tbh but there are systems out there that simply aren't russian roulette and infinitely more profitable long term than trusting any form book and all the imponderables that go with it.
My statement of "statistics don't give answers only raise questions" I stand by to a large degree and admit to using stats as a starting point in my research but with the inevitability of changes along the way. That's my input exhausted on the subject I feel , best of luck to all and if you haven't found all the answers yet I sincerely hope you do. |
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DFC, hope all is well.
The point I am trying to make is that form reading is essential in making a decision when parting with your hard earned. BUT...IF a horse/team etc.. have no intention of winning whatsoever, the form book is out of the window. How do you sort out the wheat from the chaff?... not easy. |
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Kef4o, pleased you got your profit today and also that you are upbeat again.
The 'initials' of the relevant tipster I got from the Racing Post website which used to print their summary of the race with the initials shown in brackets at the end. i.e. identical to the printed RP. I tried today but have not used their site in months and fogotten password so couldn't check. I believe the printed version now carries the full name rather than just initials. I tried today with 'my filter' (each just for £ 2 liability) and it was profitable but had forgotten how time-consuming it was. Perhaps that's why I stopped as I had other projects on the go at the time. Good luck. |
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OK, I'll finally express a theoretical opinion on form in horse racing even though I know fcuk all about it.
It sucks. I has always sucked, it will always suck. It is as good, as a polyesther bag when it's slighty ripped and you're trying to carry your groceries in it. And again, I'll explain it from a human point of view. I followed a link to paddy's, clicked on horse racing, and what did I find? A well presented platform to lure bets from people. The races are neatly ordered by time and location so that a punter would easily identify the race he wants to bet on. There is a form and TV icon next to the name of every venue. Again, the TV makes it more attractive to the punter, he can see for himself how the race is run, bigger chance that he'll bet. But the form is by far the biggest hook there. I mean it stands there so that clueless people like me can make an opinion about the race. Bookies give all that information for free. Why not, after all it doesn't represent any edge whatsoever. Otherwise it would have been like the SIS. Only a few persons would have access to it. Form doesn't really say what will really happen when those horses start running. But it does give an indication who the favourite in the race is going to be. I'd bet anybody that if they give me the form card for a race next week, provided the jockeys, and yards don't have any more runners upto that race, I'll be able to tell you who the favourite will be. And that's because I know how people think, when trying to predict the possbile outcome of an event. But no stats can predict and explain why Hull beat Arsenal at the Emirates last year. Or why Man Utd were useless in the CL final. Or why are Liverpool without a laegue title since about when I was born. Or why the Cavs**ed their chance to be champions. Or why couldn't Roddick win that 2nd(?) set after having a lead of 6-2 in the TB. Or why that horse jumped awkwardly and lost after leading with like 20 lenghts in the final furlong, and is now a synonym for a massive upset(I'm poor with remembering names). Waiting to get some stick for this one. |
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I can't take notes about separate tipsters right now, Roger but will do in the future. I'd be glad if I brought you back to a winning method.
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Note to self: If I ever get that drunk so that I start talking about my gambling habits with a chick, I won't score.
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just say what you feel mate..dont hold back :)
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kunts,...5 at least I ended up in profit.
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Good Morning Men and Ladies . just read your post .. some very interesting points But just i imagine this The Big Three Marker makers Hills Coral Laddies .. instructed their experts today .. Ok forget form .. put up your tissue on how many naps in the RP naps table and take note of the sel box ..just them 2 factors only ... the market would be a shambles in one day .
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But it does give an indication who the favourite in the race is going to be.
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Bookies win from the overround.
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kef4o 07 Jul 23:01
OK, I'll finally express a theoretical opinion on form in horse racing even though I know fcuk all about it. It sucks. I has always sucked, it will always suck. It is as good, as a polyesther bag when it's slighty ripped and you're trying to carry your groceries in it. And again, I'll explain it from a human point of view. I followed a link to paddy's, clicked on horse racing, and what did I find? A well presented platform to lure bets from people. The races are neatly ordered by time and location so that a punter would easily identify the race he wants to bet on. There is a form and TV icon next to the name of every venue. Again, the TV makes it more attractive to the punter, he can see for himself how the race is run, bigger chance that he'll bet. But the form is by far the biggest hook there. I mean it stands there so that clueless people like me can make an opinion about the race. Bookies give all that information for free. Why not, after all it doesn't represent any edge whatsoever. Otherwise it would have been like the SIS. Only a few persons would have access to it. Form doesn't really say what will really happen when those horses start running. But it does give an indication who the favourite in the race is going to be. I'd bet anybody that if they give me the form card for a race next week, provided the jockeys, and yards don't have any more runners upto that race, I'll be able to tell you who the favourite will be. And that's because I know how people think, when trying to predict the possbile outcome of an event. ====================================================== kef4o - I was not having a go at you , but was having a go at the criticism of those who believe stats are irrelevant etc. However, as from the comments you have in bold above, you are in that camp.......well certainly after a few drinks you are anyway.........:D....so all I can do is indicate that stats are an important part in weighing up a race.... Take the 5.00 race yesterday where the result was - Pontefract 17:00 - Result John Lofthouse 50th Birthday Celebration Maiden Stakes £5000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 4f 8y, Class 5, £3238 penalty, 6 ran Going: Good to Soft Winning Time Winning Time: 2m 41.92s Pos. Dr. Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP 1 2 Times Up 8-13 E Ahern J L Dunlop 3 5/2 led, headed over 5f out, led again 2f out, ridden clear touched 11/4 £1250-£500 2 1 7 Gibb River (IRE) 8-13 J Fortune P W Chapple-Hyam 3 6/5 f tracked leader, led over 5f out, ridden and headed 2f out, soon outpaced by winner opened 6/4 £1200-£800 £600-£400 £1100-£800 (x5) £550-£400 (x3) £1000-£800 (x4) £750-£600 (x2) £500-£400 (x4) 3 6 1½ Alqaffay (IRE) 9-12 R Hills J H M Gosden 4 5/2 close up, ridden to chase winner entering final 2f, outpaced approaching final furlong opened 2/1 £2000-£800 £2250-£1000 4 4 23 Transporter (IRE) 8-13 D Allan T D Easterby 3 100/1 keen, held up, ridden over 4f out, outpaced final 3f 5 3 1¾ Watchoverme 8-8 J P Spencer J R Fanshawe 3 20/1 held up, ridden and outpaced final 3f opened 16/1 touched 25/1 6 5 15 Masking Baldini (IRE) 9-12 S De Sousa J Hetherton 5 250/1 in rear, ridden over 4f out, outpaced by leading trio 3f out opened 150/1 Tote Win: £3.10 Tote Place: £1.70,£1.40 Straight Forecast: £5.51 Exacta: £5.90 Swingers:1&2:£1.10, 2&3:£1.10, 1&3:£1.50 If you just looked at the bare race record of the favourite......it had ran far more times than the horse that won............and had failed to win a race! now how complicated is that "information" ! The horse that won had a fairly strong record over 4 races .....and been 2nd a few times. Both had fitness advantage over the other 3 year old horses in race..........and both horses were not "cheap" purchases. The chances were the favourite would be beaten by TIMES UP, as the winner was relatively unexposed compared to the favourite ( now this happens regularly, and is not unusual, so the example is appropriate ). The favourite had had numerous chances and failed to win.....so why should it win that race ?????? OK - the only other danger was the expensive purchase Alqaffay............but this was a 4 year old horse carrying extra weight ......and the going was Good to Soft.......therefore the circumstances of race made it unlikely it would win.......IMO it could have grabbed 2nd .......but was not given a hard ride...... So how difficult was that race to weigh up on "form"?????? If a punter gets it wrong on such a race, then it is because they don't understand stats, nor importance of all the conditions of a race.........................don't blame the stats for their ignorance....just blame their ignorance ! I agree with much of what you say re how difficult it can be for other more complicated races for a punter to take it all in etc However, again it is only down to the punter not being capable of weighing up more complicated races.....where the information is there , but they can't "see" it etc Punters are blinded by hype.....so they back favourites often.........but if they were capable of understanding more, or took the time to study a race in more detail ( if they know what to look for etc ), then they would be better in discerning which favourites, at the odds, are more a lay than a back. So when you say - " Form doesn't really say what will really happen when those horses start running "...............generally you are just well wrong. I think you should state PUNTERS , who have not studied stats etc, don't know what really happen when horses start running!!!!!! The ones who have studied the stats etc will have a better idea than those that don't ! ]:) There were numerous occasions yesterday , and every day, when knowledge of stats helps to indicate horses that may do well due to conditions of race at the time of year etc. Of course you won't get it "right" every race, but if you do select horses at value odds, in long term you should do ok All what you said re football has nothing to do with horse racing. ......though stats have their place there too........but I prefer the more complicated area of horse racing, where higher odds can be obtained if you know what you are doing!!!!!! So I know that filtering your selections will improve your results.........IF you know what filters to apply.............and if you don't apply any, well IMO , as stated above, I suspect that you will be treading water re blindly laying spotlight selections. zipper is one of better, more knowledgeable guys on here, so don't lay his nap selections in YOUR COMPETITION forum ( DIVISION 1), as he has a positive tally at SP odds for this year SO FAR .........and I agree with his general comments, done in a helpful way, re - blindly laying the spotlight selections in long term won't produce much profit...if any...WITHOUT FILTERING SELECTIONS ETC. GL with bets anyway ........ |