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Laying the spotlight

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By:
A touch of class.
When: 04 Jul 09 19:14
Good luck with this kef4o.
By:
layem&payem
When: 04 Jul 09 19:17
Kef4o........................great thread, slowly slowly as they say. Ok so long as you dont start craving some excitment.

Good Luck.
By:
Glasgow Brian
When: 04 Jul 09 19:40
STP
where the hell did you get all those spotlight horses from ???
By:
kef4o
When: 04 Jul 09 19:41
Thanks guys!

Unfortunately, I will have to drop the unit for tomorrow. After Mount Handley's win in the the last race, I will be down for the day whatever the outcome of the last races.
By:
STP
When: 04 Jul 09 19:42
http://www.besttipping.com**tipcheck/?action=tipster&tips=all&id=15
By:
STP
When: 04 Jul 09 19:43
OR http://www.besttipping.com/?action=newstips&method=tipster&id=13
By:
clacherholiday2
When: 04 Jul 09 20:21
so if anybody asks you how to win 70k+ on here, tell them to lay the spotlight selections to £100 unit stakes :D
By:
kef4o
When: 04 Jul 09 21:07
Due to the fact that it's a lot of information to post on a daily basis I will make it shorter. Losers for the day(the ones that cost me that is):

Ialysos@6.6

Sea the stars@1.66

Strawberrydaiquiri@2.36

Spiders star@2.34

Enderby spirit@5.8

Playful Asset@2

Diapason@2.34

Iguacu@7

Dannys choice@1.82

Mount Hadley@8.4

Saxona@4.8

27/38 for me, far too poor.

Units lost: 9.3125

Total growth: 3.6%

Bank: 123.73
By:
kef4o
When: 04 Jul 09 21:10
Tomorrow's unit will be 62 cent.
By:
top2rated
When: 05 Jul 09 06:03
Results for Saturday 04/07/09 (Spotlight selections that were beaten favourites last time out).

Beve 2.15 Trinder LOST 3.50
Hayd 3.30 Falcativ LOST 9.56
Sand 5.30 Raaeidd LOST 3.13
Carl 8.35 Mount Hadley WON 8.84 (ouch!)
Carl 9.05 Island Chief LOST 3.98

Today's Spotlight BFs


Ayr 2.40 Count Bertoni
Brig 4.30 Monashee Rock
Ayr 5.10 Toy Top
By:
kef4o
When: 05 Jul 09 09:11
Well, everything is set, it looks like there might one horse that I will not have a bet due to a price higher than 11. I have a bad feeling about today. I hope I'm wrong. Holiday, it'd be great if you kept a simple flat stakes total profit and loss count. It's easier for people to see how are you performing.
By:
unionjack
When: 05 Jul 09 09:12
I'm going to run the Spotlight BF through my Bot for SAW for £6 per day.
Good luck lads, this looks quite efficacious, so it does!
By:
c0rbchenk0
When: 05 Jul 09 09:22
I tested the stats on this for a 1 year period last year, That webiste use to have the stats listed for a year, seems like just a couple of months now.

Spotlight does suck, but be warned with your staking plan, that they had an 8 winner out of 12 starts run at one time.
By:
unionjack
When: 05 Jul 09 09:23
A daily stop loss would be the safety net?
By:
kef4o
When: 05 Jul 09 09:39
Thanks for the info, corbchenko. It sure would suck if that happened. I'd say that's upto 2 months recovery provided the system performed within my average expectations. This is exactly why I opened this thread. Now I know that I'll have to come here and share this with everyone. It will be very painful but I'll have to shrink my unit size considerably and NOT CHASE. Stop loss isn't going to work for me since I could never be sure that the next horses will win/lose. It's about longterm performance this. Very long one indeed. Provided the system earns a minimum of 1 unit per day, and it accumulates the winnnings I'd need to stick to this for the interesting amount of 888 days to reach 10 000 euros bank. Then I'd start withdrawing. 886 day to go! :P
By:
unionjack
When: 05 Jul 09 10:12
Keep the Faith, brother K.
By:
kef4o
When: 05 Jul 09 16:33
My gut feeling was right. Another bad day. Losers:

Ovthenight@3.45

Velvet Band@2.18

Shiwawa@2.84

My learned friend@2.4

Little lu@3.65

Nesnaas@7.2

Itsher@1.62

10/18, horrible strike rate, yet if it wasn't for Nesnaas, I'd have been a winner today.

Units lost: 5.85

Total growth: -1%, didn't see that coming after the first day. I was hoping to be at least 1.5% ahead.

New unit:0.6
By:
john92
When: 05 Jul 09 17:28
good luck with this. it reminded me of a system in nick mordins book "betting against the spotlight tip"

obviously outdated, sample 1998-2001 uk flat seasons but provides some weight to your theory.

mordins system - "bet any forecast favourite napped by the RPs topspeed and postmark but not tipped by spotlight"

21% profit over 13 years.

in his reasoning, mordin says he once estimated that spotlight "adds 3-5% to the volume of money bet on a horse," and that "when the experts clash strongly over a favourite, punters tend to go with spotlights selection in such numbers that they inflate the odds of the topspeed and postmark nap to the point where it offers real value."

a bit different to what you are doing but i thought id post itanyway
By:
kef4o
When: 05 Jul 09 17:44
Thanks John. Well, this idea first struck when I went to the betduck, and saw that they offer this neat service of collecting all the tips from the newspapers. A few clicks later, and I was hit in the face by the giant losses one would accoumulate over 360 days backing the selections at exchange prices. First, I tried with postdata but wasn't disciplined enough. I am sure I started wtih postdata b/c it was performing worse at the time(2 weeks ago or so...). Then I found a 'professional' who pointed this as a possible system for automated software use. Now you say that a third person has previously done a similar thing. All good sings so far. Sadly, the results aren't what I was hoping for. I also missed two horses today due to the fact that they went off too high. Otherwise I would heve been even. Oh well, there's always tomorrow.
By:
Glasgow Brian
When: 05 Jul 09 17:50
alot of the earlier favs were well backed tho
good luck .
By:
fouraces
When: 05 Jul 09 17:58
kef4o

have you checked how he performs with just laying his nap selection
By:
kef4o
When: 05 Jul 09 18:04
http://www.besttipping.com**tipcheck/?action=compare

Here you go, not bad enough to justify a longterm investment of time really.
By:
Glasgow Brian
When: 05 Jul 09 18:05
bloody hell aces ---hes not got 300 yrs left on the planet
By:
john92
When: 05 Jul 09 18:08
i think you are on the right track, both in the theory and then by setting certain conditions. i have tried types of system betting (without much success i have to add) and its just bound to happen that you get a knock or two early on.

it is really hard to think long term when you have a few setbacks. attitude can make a profitable system unprofitable.if you can keep a level head then you will have a chance. i will keep an eye on the thread to see how you get on. all the best.
By:
kef4o
When: 05 Jul 09 18:17
You're welcome any time, mate. If you want to try something yourself, I'd suggest opening a thread yourself. I'm actually kicking myself for not opening any thread like this earlier. Part of the reason behind it maybe was because I was having problems with the staking. It's actually still not safe enough. And I can't lay all the horse thus dropping value. But this way I'm supposedly accelerating the time needed to reach my goal as of now. 885 days to go, and I'm actually already 5 days behing schedule. DON'T LOSE YOUR HEAD, keep with the plan.
By:
unionjack
When: 05 Jul 09 18:18
Today's Spotlight BFs

Ayr 2.40 Count Bertoni ....5th
Brig 4.30 Monashee Rock......3rd
Ayr 5.10 Toy Top.....2nd

I hit my SAW right at the start!! Many thanks K for bringing this system to our divided nation.

+6 points
By:
kef4o
When: 05 Jul 09 18:21
You're welcome but please enlighten me what does the acronym 'SAW' mean when you use it?
By:
fouraces
When: 05 Jul 09 18:27
Stop At Winner
By:
top2rated
When: 05 Jul 09 18:45
fouraces

"have you checked how he performs with just laying his nap selection"

There are several journalists that supply the Spotlight tips in the Racing Post. For example last Friday when I began highlighting the Spotlight tips that were beaten favourites last time out there were a total of eight journalists covering the day's six meetings. They are named below together with the meeting they covered and the number of selections made.

Salisbury
Stuart Redding 4 selections
Ben Osborne 2 selections

Warwick
Ben Osborne 2 selections
Steven Boow 3 selections
Alistair Whitehouse-Jones 2 selections

Haydock

Paul Johnson 4 selections
Alistair Whitehouse Jones 2 selections

Sandown
Steven Boow 1 selection
Adrian Cook 5 selections

Doncaster
Steven Boow 1 selection
Graham Wheldon 6 selections

Beverley
David Moon 5 selections
Ben Osborne 1 selection

There is a nap selection at each meeting plus a nap selection that is entered in the Racing Post Naps Competition. I don't know how they decide who is responsible for the nap selection at each meeting or the one that is supplied for the Naps Competition but here are last Friday's results.

Salisbury 9.10 Some Sunny Day (Ben Osborne) LOST
Warwick 4.20 Miss Hollybell (Steven Boow) LOST
Haydock 9.20 Bollin Judith (Paul Johnson) LOST
Sandown 4.00 Confront (Adrian Cook) LOST
Doncaster 3.35 French Applause (Graham Wheldon) LOST
Beverley 6.20 Dark Ranger (David Moon) LOST

Racing Post Naps Competition selection


Doncaster 3.35 French Applause (Graham Wheldon) LOST

Hope this helps.
By:
top2rated
When: 05 Jul 09 19:09
Spotlight selections that were beaten favourites last time out.

Results for Saturday 04/07/09


Beve 2.15 Trinder LOST 3.50
Hayd 3.30 Falcativ LOST 9.56
Sand 5.30 Raaeidd LOST 3.13
Carl 8.35 Mount Hadley WON 8.84 (ouch!)
Carl 9.05 Island Chief LOST 3.98

Results for Sunday 05/06/07

Ayr 2.40 Count Bertoni LOST 2.88
Brig 4.30 Monashee Rock LOST 5.41
Ayr 5.10 Toy Top LOST 4.07

Mondays Spotlight BFs

Muss 4.15 Vilnius
Wind 7.00 Super Fourteen
Wind 8.00 State Banquet
Ripo 9.20 Eastern Warrior
By:
theonlywayforward
When: 05 Jul 09 19:49
Last year when the irish guys bought rp and announced that they were going to charge for the info online i got the paper every day and put not only spotlight but all their tipsters into a spreadsheet.It came up with interesting info.What you need to watch for is who is wrighting spotlight as you will find their results differ vastly.
By:
theonlywayforward
When: 05 Jul 09 19:52
The best of them is( ry )richard young.
By:
kef4o
When: 05 Jul 09 20:23
Yeah, that'd be problem. I have no clue how to find out who is responsible for the spotlight tips of the day. I gues I'll stick to 'lay em all' strategy. This is a quote from freetipster.co.uk:

The logic was simple - the spotlight tipster has to pick a horse in every race when normally there are many races youd leave alone, so of course his strike rate and returns will suffer because of this. Also it is an opinion listened to by a lot of punters meaning his picks will often be over bet and go off at shorter prices, meaning you get long term value.

If I try to weed out the winners chances are, I'll mess it up.
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 05 Jul 09 20:42
good reasoning there, and maybe filter out the 8/1 and upwards..on the basis that even a broken clock is right twice a day
By:
kef4o
When: 05 Jul 09 20:51
The 8/1 is a different system, which is again easy to implement, but I just chose this oe instead, mainly to the fact that I have objective statsitics for the last 360 days of which I can make sense as to what my expectation should be. It should work just like this one should work but I don't have historical results.
By:
theonlywayforward
When: 05 Jul 09 20:59
Is your objetive to make a profit? If so then you must understand the system you are playing.It is easy to know who writes spotlight but this will not help you in your persuit.There are more prifitable tipsters in the paper than spotlight.Trying to help you but not giving away to much info as it took a long while to ascertain which were actually worth fowolling.
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 05 Jul 09 21:02
but are you coming from a backing or laying perspective?
By:
theonlywayforward
When: 05 Jul 09 21:14
Profit !! that is why you are o bf.It does not matter if you back or lay as they are both in the same market.When you back essentially you are saying that this selection will win and really you are laying every oyher selection.You must have an advantage to make consistant profit.This is only possible in understanding the system backwards.Horse racing is very complicated and envolves alot of factors that must be accounted for.Soccer is much easier as is womens tennis.
By:
kef4o
When: 05 Jul 09 21:17
theonlywayforward 05 Jul 22:59
Is your objetive to make a profit? If so then you must understand the system you are playing.It is easy to know who writes spotlight but this will not help you in your persuit.There are more prifitable tipsters in the paper than spotlight.Trying to help you but not giving away to much info as it took a long while to ascertain which were actually worth fowolling.

Of course it is. But I can't devote any time for research right now. If I'm not satisfied with the results, I might try and look for a better perspective. Thank you for the tip, I'll take it into account if I feel the need to. I totally undertand why you wouldn't want to just give away the information, and you are doing the right thing.

sweetchildofmine 05 Jul 23:02
but are you coming from a backing or laying perspective?

I'm thinking as a layer. But I have an idea how to roughly transform the numbers from the trable into the average expescted profit if I'd layed all the selections. It's far from what is actually shown on there. You wouldn't make 70k within a year with 100 flat stakes but it's still worth it.
By:
sweetchildofmine
When: 05 Jul 09 21:18
yeah that question was for ''forward'' when he mentioned far more profitable tipsters i assumed he was backing not laying
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