Nov 5, 2016 -- 6:48AM, jucel69 wrote:

The moves in test matches are unreal! Got this game so wrong it's unbelievable.Made loads in the last few months too.A big loss always stings though

This did look a near lock for Australia end of day 1 and draw deader than last week's mackerel when the second SA wicket went second innings. Always feels bad to have seen this much movement in prices and not have got the swings right but it is going to happen now and again.

Problem with my recent draw back to lay approach is that I keep getting caught a mile behind the game early and then dead to trading until the draw comes back in, if it ever does.

Nov 5, 2016 -- 6:53AM, jucel69 wrote:

Nov  5, 2016 --  5:49AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:Where is T3I need some analysis on what the prices are doing, why and where they are going. Will SA hold firm and allow the draw to come in?With Aus being the home side, they will be expected to be able to draw the game if it goes the distance, especially with SA's 3 frontline bowlers

That's been my view too. Whether they actually will or not is another question but part of the reason (other than stubbornness) for me trying to keep a lot of draw green up by keeping my lays ambitious is that if SA do set a huge number of runs and Australia start okay against the new ball the draw will go under 2 even with 4 sessions left.

I could almost go green now.

Nov 5, 2016 -- 7:08AM, jucel69 wrote:

This one, laid 300 up to 400!

Those could theoretically still come in but not looking good, no.

The quicks have bowled a fair bit already this game to be expected to do well with the new ball in this heat. Sure, it's their job but tough ask against set batsmen.

Nov 5, 2016 -- 7:11AM, jucel69 wrote:

If Aus go to 10s, I'm going hail mary time. They never give up

They might try to chase 500 in 5 sessions but hard to see that getting a back at 10s out of gaol unless they start well. Course, if Warner gets going, almost any run rate is feasible but you're not going to see a huge total overhauled very often even if the run rate is an easy one 

Not sure what situation we need for 10s. SA 320/2 or so? Probably more given that's only 50 or so runs away and they've not hit 6s yet.

Nov 5, 2016 -- 7:19AM, Fatslogger wrote:

Nov  5, 2016 --  6:11AM, jucel69 wrote:If Aus go to 10s, I'm going hail mary time. They never give upThey might try to chase 500 in 5 sessions but hard to see that getting a back at 10s out of gaol unless they start well. Course, if Warner gets going, almost any run rate is feasible but you're not going to see a huge total overhauled very often even if the run rate is an easy one  Not sure what situation we need for 10s. SA 320/2 or so? Probably more given that's only 50 or so runs away and they've not hit 6s yet.

Not as a long position, say 10s to 4s, something like that

Nov 5, 2016 -- 7:23AM, Fatslogger wrote:

Nov  5, 2016 --  6:19AM, jucel69 wrote:WHO'D have thunk it, the draw is under 7sIt's had my 6.6 lay from a back at 8.4 after the second wicket on day 1. Next is a 5.5. Given my £1.5k loss on the Spanish game last night, this has been a very enjoyable early morning session for me even though I've only actually made about three new bets. Aus now longer than draw. Who'd have believed that after day 1?Warner is quick as anything, isn't he?

what market was that?

Nov 5, 2016 -- 7:24AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:

Tubby looks in pretty good shape. I thought Ian healy was him at first!

Slats has dropped some kilos, and his syrup too

Nov 5, 2016 -- 7:24AM, jucel69 wrote:

Nov  5, 2016 --  6:23AM, Fatslogger wrote:Nov  5, 2016 --  6:19AM, jucel69 wrote:WHO'D have thunk it, the draw is under 7sIt's had my 6.6 lay from a back at 8.4 after the second wicket on day 1. Next is a 5.5. Given my £1.5k loss on the Spanish game last night, this has been a very enjoyable early morning session for me even though I've only actually made about three new bets. Aus now longer than draw. Who'd have believed that after day 1?Warner is quick as anything, isn't he?what market was that?

A shallow enough side market pool that I don't like to cough up too many details.

This looks plenty flat, doesn't it? Draw nuzzled my 5.5 lay briefly, but didn't go as far as full sex with it. I'm actually expecting my lays down to 4 to get taken at some point now. Less sure about the 3.5.

Nov 5, 2016 -- 7:35AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:

I need T3!My plan is to whack a big SA lay when the time is right and also a big draw lay, now the target is under 4

Obviously a couple of wickets and we may never see the draw anywhere near 6s again, let alone 4s, given that they need to bat at least another sessions to keep it much in play but I'd be ambitious in your position much as I am being in mine. Not sure they'll quite get all the overs in today and while there's ages left, the market will believe that Aus can bat out best part of 5 sessions on this shirtfront. I'd look for somewhere between 4 and 5.

There goes my 5.5. Think I'll try a buy at 6 in that case aiming for a 5.2 or so lay.