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The 2 best pace bowling attacks at the famously pace friendly WACA (although not as pace friendly as it was a few years ago).
AB out. Starc got a nasty injury in training. But yesterday insisted he would be fit.
A few light showers at most, if any rain at all.
If I were sure Starc plays, I'd be laying the draw harder than I am.
AB out. Starc got a nasty injury in training. But yesterday insisted he would be fit.
A few light showers at most, if any rain at all.
If I were sure Starc plays, I'd be laying the draw harder than I am.
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I really fancy going against the grain here!
Don't bet against the home team in the first Test? Don't bet against Aus in Perth? Aus are about evens. To me that means if I lay them I get the draw for free although the draw is currently 4.6 ffs! So everybody is expecting a result. I would rather lay Aus than back SA at 3.6 That does not make much tactical / financial strength but it works psychologically for me. My reasons for laying Aus Steyn, Rabadabadoo, Philander, Morkel V Starc that's it really! I think both batting sides could prove brittle. AB is a huge loss but Amla and de Kock are World Class. The rest are gritty fighters who may join the battle. FAF may not be great but will fight hard and the likes of Duminy and Bavuma are short and that may help on Aussie pitches. Cook is doughty and Elgar while not very good has experience around the world. Starc apart the Aussie bowlers are decent. Hazlewood and Lyon are more than competant. They are lacking a strong 3rd seamer. I don't think Jackson Bird is it ( Cummins may not be fit again! ). Siddle will hold an end but is not fearsome. The 5th bowler / seamer M Marsh is under pressure for his place. I don't know what will happen. Aussie batting looks strong on paper but they are facing a crack hit squad even though not the Steyn and Morkel of old. I think SA may even play Abbott as well and that is an unrelenting press. There will be a problem at opener and the thing here is even Warner may get a good one against Steyn and Philander. Numbers 3 and 4 may be facing music at early stages. I do rate Smith but even he may struggle against a new ball with this attack if he has to face them. I don't know the pitch situation here. I believe the game is being played at the W.A.C.A which is not as fast as it used to be. Now here's the thing. I am told SA scored 400 here batting last before so why is the draw so long? Is there a chance we could get a decent batting wicket? Could Aus be fearful of the SA attack and try and neuter it? Has anyone got any pitch information? |
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The last Test here was a draw on a road, and heavily criticized for it. Word is this will be more like the WACA of old.
Also this will be the last major nation Test played at the WACA, as they move to the new Perth stadium next year, and I expect the groundsman will want to show them what they will miss. |
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Well if that is the case pxb I might just be tempted to put it on SA. Is the toss an advantage at W.A.C.A?
Have Aussie got any fit fast bowlers? |
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also what is your opinion on the two teams pxb? you must be worried about the current side or is that me just being hopeful?
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Cummins looked good in the recent domestic onedayers, and Hazlewood is fit. And I'd expect both of them to play. Both the Marshes might be doubtful. So we may see someone new in the all-rounder spot.
With Starc, I'd rate the teams about equal, with perhaps a slight edge to Aus. Without Starc, SAF are superior as they showed in the one-dayers. If I hear more about the pitch, I'll let you know. |
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http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/cricket/mitchell-starc-set-to-return-from-injury-for-first-test-against-south-africa-on-a-hot-waca-ground-deck/news-story/204478df16979d69db92a332dc4d3d84
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Thx Pxb
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Bloody Hell, been reading some of the stories in that paper about Cry Baby Clarke! I used to like him once but can't stand him now!
Pattinson is out so Siddle / Bird look like the third option and Bolly a possible replacement for Starc. If Starc does play and it seems he will his workload may well be managed so SA could just decide to see him off. I dont see why Aus are such overwhelming favourites |
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Dougie's ambition is to play one more Test. He was pretty good in the one dayers, hurrying batsmen with unexpected pace, and I'd like to see him get his wish.
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http://www.news.com.au/sport/cricket/how-a-workplace-safety-blunder-almost-ended-starcs-career/news-story/e665ab629d64b8ce7d2bbb424c89337c
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£23,000 Aus lay above evens?
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Australia drifting. Probably on the basis Starc doesn't look 100% in the current 4 day domestic match, but that could be he has been told to take it easy.
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Draw must trade lower...shirley?
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Without Starc or without a tip top Starc Aus attack does not look threatening to me. It will be interesting to see how he bowls as I'd say without him Aussie could be in trouble.
I got a decent lay of Aus at 2.06 as someone has blocked the market with £23,000 odd at 2.04. I don't understand why the draw is so big. Still a long way to go but plenty of runs in Aus Shield games this week with bowlers struggling. |
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I just had a look at the aussie squad.
Starc, Siddle, Hazlewoood v Steyn, Rabada, Morkel Lyon v Tabrezi Warner, Khwaja, Smith, Voges v QDK, Amla, Faf, Russouw What exactly makes the australians favorites here? Their best bowler has just recovered from an injury and their flat track expert batsmen should find it tough against a bowling attack in which Steyn and morkel are touring Aus for the third time. Philander for the second time, though he'll most likely be replaced by Rabada. They have an edge in the spin department but Lyon is hardly ever a threat, especially if SA are forced to shut shop on the last day. I am really tempted to lay the aussies big time. |
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The only thing I would say DT is that when the Aussie batting clicks they can be good and they are at home. I think the big advantage SA have is their firepower! I woonder if Aussies would consider preparing bunsens to combat them
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Without Starc or without a tip top Starc Aus attack does not look threatening to me. It will be interesting to see how he bowls as I'd say without him Aussie could be in trouble.
That's it in a nutshell. A fully fit Starc is almost guaranteed wickets, but I am not convinced he is. We won't really know until he bowls. |
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True dat pxb
I got a lay in at 2.06 but someone is blocking at 2.04 so might have to swallow if I want to top up. What is your view on the draw at 4.6 though? You mentioned it might be an old style WACA pitch. Have you any more news, will it fly? |
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Yer, that block at 2.04 is annoying, because I make money off early market volatility.
I was hoping the draw would drift out to 5. It still might as no rain forecast. As for the pitch, http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/10/29/waca-wicket-undergoing-changes-marsh |
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Lay Oz to begin 2.04......say 3pts
Back draw 4.8 1.5 pts.......... |
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Backing against Aus in Aus is a real game of patience, much like laying Eng in Eng.
The draw rarely budges until Aus start to bowl. If they bat first & bat well, expect very little movement on the draw for 4 or so sessions. |
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FS, Starc injury was bad and required surgery. He is still not fully healed and can't slide on one side. He says he is back to bowling at his best. I wont fully believe it till I see it.
I'm having a new ultra HD TV installed tomorrow, so will see how he goes, close up. Can't wait. |
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Will you be having a bet in the Cup pxb?
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Unlikely.
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http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia-v-south-africa-2016-17/content/story/1064094.html?CMP=OTC-RSS
On Starc's injury. |
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I do think the value is in SAF, and coming off a 5-0 drubbing of Aus in the ODIs, will not lack confidence. WACA pitches don't deteriorate much, the toss not a huge advantage IMO. Weather should be dry all match, with only one hot day. Like FS, I'm waiting on the draw to get a little bigger.
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Can anyone tell me why the draw is so high? WACA pitches can be good. SA score 400+ batting last to win a game here I think
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Word is pitch is underdone after a cool spring in Perth. I've also read they will leave more grass on than usual. We could see early wickets then a flat track, so batting 2nd could be an advantage.
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Thanks pxb that is interesting. I took some draw cover at 5.1 just in case but now will need to be up for the toss to be able to reverse out of the Aus lay if what you have heard is true and the toss goes against me.
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Having crashed and burned the last time a Test match was played here I'm leaving it alone until I can see which way the wind is blowing. Even if I don't have a bet on this, no worries, there will be another one along soon.
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Draw is right back in to 4.4 from 5s. Trying to go green at 4.3 then look for a higher price again.
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I Layed Australia at 2.2 4 hours ago and now they are 2.04 with the prospect of them going odds on, fire fighting before the toss :-(
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Will there be grass on the pitch or not? if there is and SA win the toss I would be delighted. Second day may be best to bat on. I am holding some money for a SA back if they win the toss. I have layed Aus at 2.06 and backed the draw at 5.1
The Aus tail looks awfully long or the middle order soft. The only thing is at least they are on home ground so Marsh and Nevil might be better placed to make a contribution. The Aussie top 4 looks decent but if there is any life in the pitch I could see them 4 down in no time with Warner being the prize wicket. Cook is solid if not spectacular but I am not a huge fan of Elgar. I think their middle order is solid even without AB. Interesting to see how much Starc will bowl. The others do not look threatening and SA will be better placed when not facing Ashwin or Jadeja! I am quite excited, could be a cracking game and series. I haven't watched a lot of cricket in Australia so this will be great! I am going to lay Aus at odds on again if they go there! |
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Time for Australia to get some revenge after the 5-0 drubbing in South AFrica, expect loads of runs in this series, so gonna start with a draw bet in first test. Good Luck
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A big move on the draw overnight. I layed at 4.4 then backed at 5.3. The reason could be news reports saying this will be more like the WACA of old. I expect a better wicket than last year for the NZ match, but with a drop in pitch and cool weather there are limits to what can be done.
Some grass with a greenish tinge. Could be lively first session. http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/11/02/waca-hopeful-better-1st-test-pitch |
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Bit irked as I just missed my draw lay although being £1.5k in on it at 5 and 5.3 feels fine right now. It may look less good when I wake up.
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