Cheltenham Festival
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Josses Hill
Josses Hill
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Should add that I'm a big fan of the horse and thought he might win this after the Supreme last year, so I have no personal vendetta here, nor have I layed him.
Just think it was telling that in the moments after the race, there was virtually nothing but doom and gloom on here from a number of different posters, but only now that the jockey has said something positive are we seeing people changing their minds. It seems a bit of a recency bias to me - when we'd all seen then race with our own eyes and heard nothing from connections, everyone seemed to be in the same camp... |
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I haven't changed my mind. I said before his debut 8/1 was useless. After his debut i said the 16/1 wasn't too shabby. After his second race i said he should be 25/1, which i stand by.
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This business about novice being the operative word and all that type of thing, yes they're novices, but you want to be looking for one that doesn't look like a novice...purely on the jumping front compare JH and Gilgamboa...chalk and cheese....Gilgamboa looks as if he's been at it for years.
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I'm sure Josses will improve his jumping, I think he is going too quick. It's the wrong trip imo, reminds me a bit of Long Run, not going to fall, but because of that he's slower over each fence.
You want a Moscow Flyer, accept you'll make a mistake and go down. But when you don't you've saved the energy with how good you are over a fence for the finish. |
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josses hill is clearly talented and high class but there are very few horses that go on to be brilliant in the jumping department having shown such awkward and unnatural signs.
josses has all the scope but just doesnt jump like a good chaser. i will be amazed if he suddenly gets it all together on arkle day. i take budds point though, if he goes he'll be no bigger than 7/1 in all likihood |
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First 3 home in Supreme are stayers imo, none will be seen to their best over 2 miles in my opinion. Vaniteaux is a 2m4f horse, Josses & Vautour will end up in next seasons Gold Cup.
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Vaniteuax not much more than a handicapper imo !
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I don't agree with BJG fwiw, just surprised how bullish he was.
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Bit Harsh on Vaniteux, he'll make a good Chaser I feel.
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Maybe Cv but not top class,bit below for me !
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Maybe he's being aimed at the JLT now? Entered in the Scilly Isles on Saturday over 2m4f.
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At this rate will be about 5/6 runners in Arkle,which will be a shame.
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Cpt chris ran over 20f, last years winner ran over 18 or 19f. He's got to win on Saturday before he's considered for anything. Not convinced they would run from uds. Sure simonsig had to dig to beat bailey green.
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Think he just needs another run,timing suits I guess for a prep race. Pretty sure he will be in Arkle.
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runs tomorrow 3.05 Kempton, a graduation chse over 2m4f
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Yep,will be very interesting to see how he jumps compared to his 2 previous races.
I am hopeful it will have improved enough to give the horse a lively chance in the Arkle. |
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HOPE SO 2 BUDD,UP EARLY FOR WORK TOMOZ
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Just doesn't jump well enough unfortunately.
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Not good enough, was receiving 11lb today from Third Intention.
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I think he will be good if he learns, in time, to jump better. He is capable but just not ready for a race like the Arkle, especially with that beast in there to take all but the surest of jumpers out of their comfort zones from the go.
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In a daft way if you still fancy him, the price has just got better. Won't be many runners and if anything does happen to UDS then who knows but he's not on my shopping list.
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Should have drifted more than he has imo.
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He won't have enjoyed the sticky ground today but going half a pace quicker round Cheltenham in the Arkle is likely to expose his jumping frailties. If UDS runs his race, he will win but there is prize money down to 6th and I don't suppose there will be many runners.
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How much does 6th place get and will it cover his entry fees.
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They should save him for the Maghull at Aintree rather than potentially shatter whatever confidence he's got left in the Arkle.
But then again, Cheltenham is the be all and end all of Hendersons season isn't it ? |
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gutfeeling
gutfeeling 06 Feb 15 15:34 Joined: 18 Jul 06 | Topic/replies: 1,575 | Blogger: gutfeeling's blog How much does 6th place get and will it cover his entry fees. Very droll gf! I had to look it up but Grandouet's connections collected £2010 for finishing 6th last year. |
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finally ended all speculation of arkle participation today.
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i dont understand the way they're treating this horse. he has got the scope but is not a steeplechaser! end of story. send him back over hurdles. i think a horse who is so clearly unnatural over fences should not be made to continue doing it. it's okay in these small field novice events but at championship pace he'll fall or worse.
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£1270 in the bag then if only 6 runners.
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The horse is frightened - must go back over hurdles.
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I have watched all three of his runs to date and for me he jumps far better when just let go and not held back. Clearly doesn't get 2.5 miles well if he can't beat Third Intention giving him 11lbs so a belting fast gallop over 2 miles might just be exactly what he needs. And with UDS that is exactly war he is going to get ! At the new prices I think he is a decent place bet.
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Surprised at some of the comments to be honest.
Getting weight don't make so much difference when we are talking about a 2 miler that was meant to go to Doncaster and had to run here instead over the wrong distance,on tacky ground which he would not like. Third intention can be quiet useful on his day and is a lot more experienced. Today was another race to get valuable jumping experience,and I thought that was achieved and his jumping was pretty good. The race was a million miles away from an Arkle,different distance and almost certainly different ground.....the 2 main ingredients really. I expect him to turn up in the Arkle and run a respectable race,i don't think he will beat UDS,although for my pocket I hope he does!! Can see him chasing him home though. |
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"Barry is definitely not ruling out the Arkle and he's got to ride him. He does believe in the horse.
"We had to race somewhere and he'll be better with a right good gallop over two miles and then we can let him go. "Barry said if he'd won by a neck he'd have been delighted and we've only been beaten a length. Fair comments from the trainer imo,and I particularly like the we can let him go bit,cos he will get a right good gallop alright!! |
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Everything we've seen from the horse has demonstrated just how he can't participate, let alone win an arkle, he is awkward and jumps a fence as high as he does long, getting experience is all well and good but from a jumping perspective we have seen precisely zero progression from him in that department......and as for going the pace he'll need to to keep tabs on UDS...well, suffice to say, geraghty is a brave fellow!!
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completely agree duffy
criminal if hendo sends him to the arkle after the way he's jumped imo |
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It will bring out the best in him is what hes saying,and imo hes right,or at least I think he is.
Whether hes good enough the 1st time hes had a race run like that over fences,is unknown. But at least they recognise what he needs,and really as a backer that's all you want. And after the race you can be content in the knowledge that they gave it a go. If he aint good enough so be it. |
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its not that he aint good enough, he may well be. He cannot jump well enough!! the horse is so unnatural. if they want to persist with this idea, then wait for aintree a flat track. why oh why send him to cheltenham where they'll go quick and expose his jumping further. massive risk to the horse.
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Well that's what they think,so imo let the horse have his perfect conditions,a fast pace where they don't have to hold him back,and let him go at 2m on decent ground.
Then judge. |
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i dont care what they think, trainers and jockeys are regularly incorrect or just say things for image
the horse clearly cannot jump well enough to win the arkle, and should not be taking part |
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More worried that he got bt by a horse that jumped rt and cudnt win a Byrne group off 143 , and he was getting 10lb , didnt think his jumping was that bad .
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