Forums

Cheltenham Festival

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 326 comments are related to the topic:
Josses Hill

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 5 of 9  •  Previous | 1 | ... | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | ... | 9 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 326
By:
Graeme83
When: 11 Jan 15 10:54
Vouchers holders are obviously looking for positives. Thats how it is. He has absolutely no chance on form, but obviously people want something to spark the horse up in time.  Problem is he jumps well at home, so they want know if pieces or a band make a difference until he races. Unfortunately yis price isnt much use right now, as he should be around 25/1 on evidence.
By:
shockster
When: 11 Jan 15 12:13
On Chasing evidence I don't think he can win.  However Graeme, I think you would get plenty of takers at 25/1 and I would throw a few quid at it.
By:
sageform
When: 11 Jan 15 12:25
Agree at 25/1 as his hurdle form puts him right in the mix but if you ignore his hurdle form he is a 50/1 shot.
By:
sc1883
When: 11 Jan 15 12:26
They said Tiday Bay couldnt jump he won the arkle despite getting beat in an average contest the previous race, on all known form Contraband couldnt win an arkle, on all known form Well Chief couldnt win an arkle, on all known form Captain Chris couldnt win an arkle, on all known form Western Warhorse had no chance! In what looks like a weak race i wouldnt be too quick on writing this horse off. Are people forgetting the favourite for this years fell when there was nothing around him?
By:
sageform
When: 11 Jan 15 12:29
The real question I would be asking if I owned the horse is which race should we go for? The Jewson looks much more suitable to me.
By:
CVByrne
When: 11 Jan 15 12:32
He's the conundrum, he's not jumping well and won't win the Arkle jumping like he has so far. But he has the ability, if he got his jumping sorted to win. He is thinking too much at his fences, every fence nearly.

Un De Sceaux is an excellent jumper, yes he fell but that happens, what's key is how quick he gets from a to b and how he carries his momentum. It will be relentless from flag fall in the Arkle. Ruby will have a strong early pace to put pressure on his rivals, fill UDS up at the top of the hill just as rivals close and then kick on again. He's a master of it.

This could be good or bad for Josses Hill, either it forces him to stop thinking and just jump, or it will expose his jumping and have him in trouble.
By:
cufcno1
When: 11 Jan 15 12:38
Paul Townsend on uds cv,ruby sitting behind on vautourExcitedLaugh
By:
gutfeeling
When: 11 Jan 15 13:05
Tidal Bay had won 3 chases before his second and the problem was he didn't arch his back, Josses Hill is just wrong at near every fence, If he wins I'll be very surprised.
By:
formboy
When: 13 Jan 15 13:05
Has to be worth trying in a visor or blinkers at home, could easily transform his jumping.
More momentum and less time to think.
By:
TheCollector
When: 13 Jan 15 13:27
Barry Geraghty yesterday on his ATR blog :

Unless I’m very much mistaken I think we have an exceptionally talented novice chaser coming along in the shape of JOSSES HILL ATR Tracker.

There might have been a few that were unimpressed with his first win over fences in the two-mile novices’ chase at Doncaster on Friday – but not me.

I absolutely love this horse. He has all the technical ability you want and can go long or short which is why he came up a stride early at the first.

It’s just a case that because he has so many options in his slower paces, he can sometimes pick the wrong one.

When we were motoring up the home straight in top gear he was very good indeed.

He came up out of my hands at the fifth last and for a horse not to make a mistake with a move like that was unbelievable – I’ve never had that happen to me before with a novice.

They don’t come up early in the final stages of a race and not make a mistake but he didn’t.

He is certainly a work in progress for Nicky Henderson and his team but it’s only because he’s getting everything together and find the same rhythm he had over hurdles.

He needs to learn to pop his fences and once he does that he’s going to be a serious player in two-mile chases.
By:
TheCollector
When: 13 Jan 15 13:29
Reminds me of Tiutchev in 2000 who was ponderous over fences on his 2 initial starts then won the Arkle by 8 lengths for Henderson
By:
Wicketd
When: 13 Jan 15 13:30
so henderson says the horse frightened himself at one or two, and now geraghty saying the horse has so many options at his fences he just picks the wrong ones Laugh
By:
gutfeeling
When: 13 Jan 15 13:49
They've been busy working on the "Sprinter sacre doesn't run at Ascot because" story Wicketd,
Guess the "Josses Hill excites us because" script got put on the backburner Grin
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jan 15 21:00
That's a pretty confident statement from BJG.
By:
tyronesam
When: 19 Jan 15 18:39
Entered up n saturday
By:
duffy
When: 19 Jan 15 18:45
Geraghty is very much mistaken.
By:
CVByrne
When: 19 Jan 15 20:23
He's a good judge of a chaser. Just Josses is too slow over fences for Arkle
By:
sj
When: 19 Jan 15 20:31
Wouldnt write anyhing off in the Arkle. Fav a complete unknown, won at 1-8 and tipped up. Dont know how he's gonna react if he gets some company(woudlnt be the first time another trainer has put something in just to annoy a front runner) ground and track also.
Vautour now looks doubtful if he s in the race, I like Gilgamboa.
Clarcam looks decent but was beaten quite comfortably by Vautour first time up. Its wide open for me
By:
sj
When: 19 Jan 15 20:34
Fav won at *1-5 Sorry
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Jan 15 20:57
He may jump a lot better come March.
12/1 could look value then.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 19 Jan 15 21:01
Duffy. I'd say Barry is a better judge than anyone on the Betfair forum tbh.
By:
wellchief
When: 19 Jan 15 21:22
He's a good trade imo.

If Vautour doesn't turn up, he's surely going to shorten by at least a couple of points.

Even if Un De Sceaux goes off really short, I'm pretty confident Josses Hill will be a single figure price on the day.
By:
CVByrne
When: 19 Jan 15 21:55
Gilgamboa needs it very soft, he'll find ground against him over 2m at Cheltenham.
By:
tyronesam
When: 19 Jan 15 22:27
Lets cut him a wee bit of slack. Openly said would need the run first time out after injury. Then ran three weeks later and a definite improvement. Surely come on again and connections still bullish. When vatour goes jlt route and gilgamboa seemingly needing it very soft josses  will be second fav I'd say. On the day nicky wil have him tuned to perfection and just a final thought...when Barry really asked him over last two he really came up for him so faster pace might just suit. All about opinions!!!
By:
Tory
When: 19 Jan 15 22:40
IMO be got better as the last race went on - each fence was pretty much an improvement until he really got it right the last two.

If he picks up where he left off and gets it right from the get go then 12/1 will be a very nice price come the end of the race.

If you're not keen on backing the bull in a china shop that is UDS @ 2/1 then you have to have JH in your book at the odds
By:
TheCollector
When: 19 Jan 15 23:23
Barry Geraghty has won it 3 times in last 5/6 years I believe so he would know an Arkle horse. The one who would worry me if he lined up in this would be Ptit Zig who would have a better chance in this than the JLT. Easier race as things stand at present. Un de Sceauxs light will go off by the last fence....if he gets there that is
By:
duffy
When: 20 Jan 15 05:28
Can't Catch Me
     19 Jan 15 21:01
Duffy. I'd say Barry is a better judge than anyone on the Betfair forum tbh.



Completely agree with you....as I said though, geraghty is very much mistaken, I'm judging that opinion on what we've all seen with our own eyes....if we're going to throw all that out the window just because a jockey praises something that is completely contrary to what form it's shown then we may as well back any old thing through the winter,even if it shows precisely nothing that you'd need to see at the festival.
By:
duffy
When: 20 Jan 15 05:39
I thought his last run was a good bit worse than his debut to be honest, he was ok to halfway on debut....on his 2nd start he looked like he was blindfolded up until the last two.....now, going at arkle pace, particularly the way UDS is going to go off ...AND with the jocks knowing that they can't chance not trying to go with him...every horse's jumping is going to be put under maximum pressure....any blindfolded horse is going to have problems.....if Josses Hill wins...he will have done so without even giving the slightest hint of being able to do so to date, so for my money geraghty saying he's coming along nicely is flying in the face of what we've all seen...so I take that with a pinch of salt.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Jan 15 07:02
Anyone thinking UDS will not get home in the Arkle needs to remember him gutsing  it out over 2 and a half m in France,......eh collector??

Josses Hill was better at jumping lto out imo,and I would think he will be better again next time knowing his connections.
As said 12 could look very big in March.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Jan 15 07:07
Duffy,
Sounds like you got wrapped up in the commentary mate which was bluddy awful and way ott.
No way was his jumping as bad as he made out,he don't look a natural at this stage to me but he did jump a fair few ok and a couple really well,so he's capable and between then and March we can expect more improvement.
By:
CVByrne
When: 20 Jan 15 07:53
UDS is a superb jumper of a fence. He tipped up which was a novice mistake any horse can make. But speed from a to b is key and momentum he carries. If he can put up a big win this weekend he'll be very short and can be an easy horse to stake lay in running in the Arkle.

Josses Hill needs further imo, I think he'll get beat and step up in trip next season with a view to Gold Cup. He's a huge horse.
By:
tomdeane
When: 20 Jan 15 09:23
I'm sure Josses will be shorter than 12/1 on the day, so I'm not arguing with the price.

But how people keep saying his jumping wasn't that bad is beyond me - for such a fine, big, scope horse, it was a shocking round! He made a number of bad errors that cost him ground and momentum, and what was more worrying was that they were all different errors, indicating he was guessing each and every time.

Agree 100% with duffy here - Henderson and Geraghty might well work the oracle with him (he's clearly very talented) but on what we've seen so far he is no Arkle winner. If he jumps like he did at Doncaster he'll be out with the washing.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 20 Jan 15 09:51
Josses Hill doesn't seem to use himself very well to me....a bit clumsy. I'm not sure that he will get round Cheltenham without making one or more mistakes but if he can, he certainly has the pace to go close and better ground will suit.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 20 Jan 15 11:06
I agree with Budd... think the talk of his jumping being'shocking' is hugely over stated. He was novicey, a bit clumsy at a few, but it was only his second round... and he seemed to learn all the way around to me. If you watch from the point they turn into the back straight and the pace increases he is actually pretty good over the penultimate two, and absolute pings the last.
By:
tyronesam
When: 20 Jan 15 14:12
Totally agree with budd and com. I've watched the last run quite a few times now and he's just basically novicey which is to be expected. When they start to motor he is excellent. Horse was way short fitness wise first time out , only 3 weeks to second run , so just starting to learn his job now. Will be schooled intensively and brought to a peak fitness wise for one day. 12/1 too big imo
By:
duffy
When: 20 Jan 15 15:01
We've got to quantify what we're all discussing here and that is an arkle winner in waiting so and he's just basically novicey which is to be expected. is wrong IMO, I expect a polished round of jumping..also...so just starting to learn his job now...so two thirds of his preparation is done and he's just starting to learn his job....from a potential arkle winner I want to see a horse jumping a fence as if he's been doing it for years.

People state things like Tidal Bay wasn't foot perfect or Captain Chris was a bit iffy, but for every one of those there are stacks of Arkle winners that were very assured jumpers going into the race.

On what we've seen so far he isn't an Arkle winner in waiting and to be prepared to almost dismiss what he's actually shown because the jockey says something positive and through fear of what might happen because who the jockey is isn't for me.....I'll concede that his 2nd performance wasn't shocking in the literal interpretation of the word...but I'll tell you what his jumping was in relation to an Arkle winner and that was shocking!
By:
TheCollector
When: 20 Jan 15 15:20
So what about when Un De Sceaux fell in a donkey derby with nothing round him? Was that shocking?
By:
duffy
When: 20 Jan 15 15:25
Yes, but it was an isolated mistake in amongst an otherwise assured display of jumping. He's shown that to date he is an accomplished jumper...josses hill has shown that he is not...incidentally, I don't think UDS will win the Arkle either.
By:
tyronesam
When: 20 Jan 15 16:14
Josses has never looked like falling despite the terrible jumping everyone keeps talking about though. A bit high but careful and he will get better with time and schooling. Of course he's still learning his job, novices being the clue word, they all are .he was behind all the rest in schooling terms due to the injury, making up or it now
By:
tomdeane
When: 20 Jan 15 18:36
But how does everyone account for the different mistakes he makes? Smacks of a horse not enjoying his fences and being scared of them. If he comes down on top of one at Cheltenham as he did at Doncaster, he'll be done.

UDS, Vautour, Clarcam, Gilgamboa, Vibrato Valtat and Sgt Reckless all look like good jumpers (or at least look as though they know what they are trying to do).

I agree that Josses is in the right hands and that he could well sharpen up in time. But on what we've actually seen, he's nowhere near a good enough jumper to win this race.
Page 5 of 9  •  Previous | 1 | ... | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | ... | 9 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com