Cheltenham Festival

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17 Nov 14 18:24
Date Joined: 09 Jan 04
| Topic/replies: 883 | Blogger: tyronesam's blog
Anyone know if Barry mentioned this one on forum on Sunday. I've read won't be out till new year, any reason for this. Surely needs some fencing experience despite ground conditions. Thanks
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Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 4:39 PM GMT
i dont understand the way they're treating this horse. he has got the scope but is not a steeplechaser! end of story. send him back over hurdles. i think a horse who is so clearly unnatural over fences should not be made to continue doing it. it's okay in these small field novice events but at championship pace he'll fall or worse.
Report gutfeeling February 6, 2015 4:50 PM GMT
£1270 in the bag then if only 6 runners.
Report Ekbalco February 6, 2015 5:08 PM GMT
The horse is frightened - must go back over hurdles.
Report HaylingBilly February 6, 2015 5:15 PM GMT
I have watched all three of his runs to date and for me he jumps far better when just let go and not held back. Clearly doesn't get 2.5 miles well if he can't beat Third Intention giving him 11lbs so a belting fast gallop over 2 miles might just be exactly what he needs. And with UDS that is exactly war he is going to get ! At the new prices I think he is a decent place bet.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 5:38 PM GMT
Surprised at some of the comments to be honest.
Getting weight don't make so much difference when we are talking about a 2 miler that was meant to go to Doncaster and had to run here instead over the wrong distance,on tacky ground which he would not like.
Third intention can be quiet useful on his day and is a lot more experienced.

Today was another race to get valuable jumping experience,and I thought that was achieved and his jumping was pretty good.
The race was a million miles away from an Arkle,different distance and almost certainly different ground.....the 2 main ingredients really.
I expect him to turn up in the Arkle and run a respectable race,i don't think he will beat UDS,although for my pocket I hope he does!! Can see him chasing him home though.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 5:52 PM GMT
"Barry is definitely not ruling out the Arkle and he's got to ride him. He does believe in the horse.

"We had to race somewhere and he'll be better with a right good gallop over two miles and then we can let him go.

"Barry said if he'd won by a neck he'd have been delighted and we've only been beaten a length.

Fair comments from the trainer imo,and I particularly like the we can let him go bit,cos he will get a right good gallop alright!!
Report duffy February 6, 2015 6:15 PM GMT
Everything we've seen from the horse has demonstrated just how he can't participate, let alone win an arkle, he is awkward and jumps a fence as high as he does long, getting experience is all well and good but from a jumping perspective we have seen precisely zero progression from him in that department......and as for going the pace he'll need to to keep tabs on UDS...well, suffice to say, geraghty is a brave fellow!!
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 6:25 PM GMT
completely agree duffy

criminal if hendo sends him to the arkle after the way he's jumped imo
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 6:28 PM GMT
It will bring out the best in him is what hes saying,and imo hes right,or at least I think he is.

Whether hes good enough the 1st time hes had a race run like that over fences,is unknown.
But at least they recognise what he needs,and really as a backer that's all you want.
And after the race you can be content in the knowledge that they gave it a go.

If he aint good enough so be it.
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 6:29 PM GMT
its not that he aint good enough, he may well be. He cannot jump well enough!! the horse is so unnatural. if they want to persist with this idea, then wait for aintree a flat track. why oh why send him to cheltenham where they'll go quick and expose his jumping further. massive risk to the horse.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 6:33 PM GMT
Well that's what they think,so imo let the horse have his perfect conditions,a fast pace where they don't have to hold him back,and let him go at 2m on decent ground.

Then judge.
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 6:35 PM GMT
i dont care what they think, trainers and jockeys are regularly incorrect or just say things for image

the horse clearly cannot jump well enough to win the arkle, and should not be taking part
Report paulo47 February 6, 2015 6:46 PM GMT
More worried that he got bt by a horse that jumped rt and cudnt win a Byrne group off 143 , and he was getting 10lb , didnt think his jumping was that bad .
Report Ekbalco February 6, 2015 7:01 PM GMT
Fingers crossed he doesn't return on a Cheltenham flatbed trailer.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 7:03 PM GMT
And I dare say they don't care what you think.
Nor do I, but I certainly care what they think,and watching the horse I think its just what he needs.

Paulo,dont be worried about him losing today,as said before that was a million miles away from what it will be like on the Tuesday,should be different ground and certainly different distance.
And you are correct his jumping weren't that bad.
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 7:07 PM GMT
the only reaosn he'd go for arkle is because if, and thats a huge if, he gets it together on the day hes classy enough to finish second. but thats not putting the horses best interest first. he is NOT ready for an arkle, nowhere near
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 7:12 PM GMT
Well they obviously disagree with you.
Best accept that,after all they know the horse better than any of us do.
Although I think I'm a bit closer than some on here,as I can see what they are saying makes sense.
Hes certainly jumped better in his races when the pace has increased.
Report alleged22 February 6, 2015 7:16 PM GMT
not good enough to place in a 5 runner arkle, whats the prizemoney for finishing 5th.....
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 7:18 PM GMT
i think i can base my judgements well enough based on what we've seen on the track

and that strongly tells me he should not be running at cheltenham in any of the novice chasers. they like the horse, of course they'll defend him

this reminds me of the oscar whiskey should not have run in the tingle creek debate
Report festivalfanatic February 6, 2015 7:19 PM GMT
Last year, Valdez's connections picked up £4020 for finishing 5th.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 7:29 PM GMT
Well im leaving it at that,we could go round and round all night.

Lets leave it to the horse to get what they think are his ideal conditions and talk about it after, I think that's fair on the horse myself.
Report Ekbalco February 6, 2015 7:41 PM GMT
He's frightened and he's guessing - on the evidence so far given the pace they'll be going on quickish ground he could well simply run through one at Cheltenham or if he takes off outside the wings  - as he has done on several occasions so far in his short chasing career  - he'll turn one hell of a somersault.

He is going to have to improve freakishly in short space of time to win a normal Arkle on evidence so far - if he wasn't trained by Henderson he'd be 20's plus.
Report Graeme83 February 6, 2015 7:50 PM GMT
If gerraghty wants to go for it, that's alright for me. I much prefer his attitude to ricci's. BG charges at them on a rodeo horse, and ricci runs away from uds with a supreme winner. That's the spirit.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 7:55 PM GMT
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 7:56 PM GMT
That was at Greames comments, although Ekbalcos last post was pretty amusing as well.
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 7:56 PM GMT
just rewatching his chases he has so many misunderstandings with geraghty, he asks him big on a few fences and the horse just takes off when he wants. he took off half a mile from one today and jumped massive at loads of the fences. that surely signals he's either scared, or feeling something.
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 7:59 PM GMT
what's amusing about ekbalcos post? if this was another horse who finished 2nd in a supreme and has jumped like he has to date he'd be a bigger price no doubt.

third intention sets an okay standard but you'd have expected josses class to have prevailed today - it didnt because his jumping was erratic and poor
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 8:36 PM GMT
You need to ask??
Yeh,you probably do.
Hes not even remotely looked like falling, running through one or doing some sort of somersaultLaugh

You people who love having a pop at a horse who clearly has not had his ideal conditions, simply make me laugh,aint you got something positive to say about other horses instead??

Reason he did not win today,and I firmly believe they had doubts about winning,was that it was on tacky ground over half a mile more than he wants to go. Forget who beat him its largely irrelevant.

Why don't you just let the horse run in the Arkle with conditions his connections say suit him best??

Is it that difficult???
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 8:38 PM GMT
because i think that can do serious damage to the horse!! jumping fences at pace around cheltenham is josses hill's ideal conditions????

Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 8:40 PM GMT
if you think they are his ideal conditions you are either heavily pocket talking or plain blind
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 8:43 PM GMT
Well that's what his connections say,so you can laugh as much as you want.
Their opinion counts, yours,mine and anyone elses.....dont.

Do you not agree that he has jumped better when the pace has increased in his races Wicket??
Report wellchief February 6, 2015 8:45 PM GMT
Just to throw my two cents in, is that we don't know what his ideal conditions are yet.

Cheltenham may bring out the best in him, or he could run like he did again today.

Don't know until you try.  So many are labelled "spring horses", Holywell being a prime example on here.

People forgive his poor runs, but he is a spring horse, so its OK for him to run cr@p until Cheltenham. Josses could be another one, as his best performances last year were in the spring.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 8:46 PM GMT
Yes ive backed him,but that was start of season and ive virtually given up cos I know how good UDS is.

But I am willing to see the horse over what I think would be his optimum,and that happens to be what his connections say as well. And then I will judge,i don't see why others cannot do the same to be honest.
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 8:48 PM GMT
only my opinion matters when it comes to betting! if we took everything trainers and jockeys said as true we'd know most winners of races and wouldnt need to watch races/read form.

his jumping has been okay at points budd but if you seriously think the horse is near ready for a strong pace from the off arkle, then you must be pocket talking. i'm sorry but you must be. he was strongly ridden out to beat solar impulse, couldnt match ptiz zig, and has now been turned over by one of the biggest rogues in training getting 11lb. so 2m4f on soft ground isnt ideal, but he was getting a lot of weight and third intention is a weak finisher.

he should be aimed at next years champion hurdle
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 6, 2015 8:48 PM GMT
I dont think he jumped badly, maybe not as fast as you would had wanted. Clearly he doesnt jump quick enough to win an arkle at the moment but he has cheltenham form and bar one horse the race is pretty open.

Also i doubt chemical had him anywhere near 100% today.
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 8:49 PM GMT
wrote that before seeing your post.

the reason i 'will not do the same', as if we should all be sheep anyway, is that it is not right to run him imo! he clearly isnt made for it.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 8:55 PM GMT
So im pocket talking cos I disagree with you? really?
Ive just told you ive given my bet up cos of UDS,and everyone on here knows what I think of that horse!!!

Come on mate, I am just giving a horse the chance to prove hes not as bad as some make out,and maybe a lot better.
Just let him do what his trainer says will suit him.
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 9:00 PM GMT
budd your @rse must be in tatters because you must have sat on a billion fences in your time.

take a view rather than 'he might be good, he might not'

thats the whole point of gambling.

i'm not gonna sit here saying he might run well. he shouldn't be running. agree to disagree.
Report wellchief February 6, 2015 9:00 PM GMT
Maybe wicketd has layed him and he's pocket talking LaughLaugh
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 6, 2015 9:01 PM GMT
Certainly going over the top on the horse, anyone reading from the outside would had thought the horse had hit every fence and fallen twice before Crazy
Report tomdeane February 6, 2015 9:09 PM GMT
I agree entirely with Wicketd's sentiment re the horse's jumping - he should not be running in an Arkle on what we've seen. I am genuinely amazed by some of the comments, as I was after Doncaster. The same thing is happening all over again - the immediate response on here was that he hadn't got a hope in an Arkle, but then after connections gave their PR spin comments, people are warming to him maybe getting his ideal conditions at Cheltenham. It's just bizarre. He looks frightened and keeps making different mistakes throughout his races - it's not even like you can focus on one thing and try to train him to improve that. The idea that he will jump better round Cheltenham against much better, faster horses, and with one of the best 2m novices we might well ever have seen, is just crackers.

For what it's worth, Henderson and Geraghty were also telling us that Grandouet had a chance in last year's race despite his indifferent form beforehand. And he was a much better jumper than Josses Hill.

I would also make the point that I love this horse, and would be genuinely worried for his wellbeing in the Arkle. I haven't layed him and have honestly no worries about him beating those that I have backed. The Oscar Whiskey point that was brought up earlier is a pertinent one in my mind - we know these wonderful horses are at risk every time they run but there is a difference in risking them when the evidence suggests they could be vulnerable.
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 9:09 PM GMT
haha Grin

maybe i am going a bit over the top but i think its the plain wrong race to run him in based on what we've seen. i know cheltenham is the pinnacle but think its unfair on him
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 9:11 PM GMT
completely agree tom, especially about the erratic jumping. theres so many issues with his jumping not just one flaw they can iron out
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 9:11 PM GMT
Wicket, hes a novice chaser with 3 chases to his name,2 of which were further than the Arkle distance.
His trainer has said he needs a totally different race to what hes had so far.
So therefore I don't know how good he is,or could be.

I took a view start of the season and backed him,and if it weren't for UDS I would still be fairly confident.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 6, 2015 9:13 PM GMT
and with one of the best 2m novices we might well ever have seen, brave words tomdeane.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 9:15 PM GMT
Of all the novices I have seen,i would be less worried about JH than all of them.
If anything hes too safe.
UDS, who I think could well be the best 2m chaser in training,worries me more to be honest.
Report tomdeane February 6, 2015 9:19 PM GMT
He might not win of course but UDS has already posted performances that mark him out as something truly special.

I have also backed Clarcam for a place and would back him in a match bet with Josses Hill every day of the week!

I think the 'novice' chaser thing gets banded about too easily to be honest. Yes, any horse should improve as it gains experience in any discipline, but every year we also see countless examples of horses that look naturals over fences, and that's what you need to be to reach the very top. UDS, Clarcam, Valseur Lido and Ptit Zig all look like they know what they're doing and enjoy jumping fences. Josses Hill looks like he's unsure at every fence and keeps making different mistakes. Even when he's safe and sound he spends an age in the air, which is not something I've ever seen a Grade One two-mile chaser do.
Report shockster February 6, 2015 9:31 PM GMT
I agree with Budd about JH being too safe.  He gave far too many fences today too much air.  I don't think he's got any hope of winning the Arkle. Don't know how much to supplement him for Churdle but he's more chance in that that than Hendersons other 2 IMHO.
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 9:32 PM GMT
good point shockster. just think he needs a season back over hurdles beforehand tho, might balloon every one
Report wellchief February 6, 2015 9:42 PM GMT
If he fails in the Arkle/Aintree over fences, nothing wrong at all with going back to the Champion Hurdle route, but I don't think you can give up on him now with just 5 weeks to go.

I maintain that he could well be a spring horse, where he will be at his best on good ground going at a fast pace.  To throw the towel in now, when he hasn't had those conditions would be premature - you only get one chance at an Arkle.  If he does well, then great, if he doesn't then that opens up the hurdle route - even the Aintree Hurdle or Punchestown 2 miler vs The Fly and Jezki if he is that bad in the Arkle.

I don't think anyone could argue that he has jumped well, there was one point today where he took off miles too early, but never looked like falling.  But he has a huge engine as proved last year, and if (and that's a big if) they can make it click with his jumping, he is at the least worth his place in the lineup.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 9:44 PM GMT
Oh,I have no dobt that UDS looks a real natural and that some are more natural than others,no doubt at all.
I would also say that JH has not looked a natural at times,but I will keep coming back to this jumping better at pace,which I think JH has shown. BG must think he's doing that as well as they are saying he needs a real good gallop,and he ain't had that yet.
Look,he may fail in the Arkle whatever but at least let's let him try before rubbishing him , and the way he jumps he's hardly gonna come a cropper imo.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 6, 2015 9:46 PM GMT
What is a spring horse ? a horse that likes less testing ground ?
Report alleged22 February 6, 2015 9:46 PM GMT
Last year, Valdez's connections picked up £4020 for finishing 5th

there will be handicaps at stratford in the summer he,ll get his ground aswell Plain
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 9:47 PM GMT
Course you don't give up on him now,you are right chief,he needs his optimum,and then you make decisions like that depending how that goes.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2015 9:49 PM GMT
Sonko, a spring horse is what Jonjo trains mate.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 6, 2015 9:55 PM GMT
as i thought Cool
Report wellchief February 6, 2015 10:00 PM GMT
Lord Windermere, Holywell, Albertas Run, Champagne Fever, Jezki etc - could Josses Hill be in there?  Only one way to find out.
Report timtin February 7, 2015 3:04 AM GMT
What I saw was a miscoordination between jockey and horse at most fences which almost caused a fall at halfway. In these conditions you can't expect the horse to give his true running and did well to stay on so close at the finish so hopefully next time we'll see him in a better light having accumulated enough experience. I wouldn't give up on him but I also wouldn't back him at anything lower than 25s.
Report buddeliea February 7, 2015 7:07 AM GMT
Take it you are referring to when he took off too early? He did bl00dy well to get the other side though!! Some leap that was. Never looked like falling in the whole race,jumps a tad too big at times though.

What price without the fav Tim?
Report buddeliea February 7, 2015 7:12 AM GMT
Chief,that's a fair point about spring horse,yes it's possible mate,and as you say only one way to find out.

He will be better on decent ground with a fast pace,I'm convinced of that,think we will see a different horse then.
Report sc1883 February 7, 2015 8:31 AM GMT
Got to laugh at the "know it alls" on this thread who seem to know more about horses than BG and NJH lol!! I personally would prefer to listen to BG myself who still seems to have faith in him. I dont think anybody is now suggesting Josses will beat UDS but this years arkle behind him looks awfully weak. It wont take much to take 2nd and then there is the small chance the fav could tip up. Why go back over hurdles and finish 6th or 7th at best in a champion hurdle? Now a great EW price imo.
Report sintonian February 7, 2015 9:07 AM GMT
Amazing you could still lay off ante-post stakes on JH after his Doncaster win at 11's on here. Forget his hurdles form, he is no better than a handicapper over fences at the moment.
Report alleged22 February 7, 2015 9:17 AM GMT
it looks that way sint
Report gutfeeling February 7, 2015 9:44 AM GMT
Use your eyes and don't listen to trainers or jockeys, They have a vested interest.
Anyone who thinks a horse with such bad technique will have it all resolved by a faster pace is kidding themselves.
Report wellchief February 7, 2015 10:15 AM GMT
I don't think anyone is bigging Josses Hill up as an Arkle winner, but behind UDS it is wide open.

I think the market has it about right now - Un De Sceaux is miles clear, and Vibrato Valtat and Clarcam are both ahead of Josses Hill - I couldn't argue with any of that.

Add to the fact that if Gilgamboa, Vautour and Ptit Zig were switched to the Arkle, then I'd have Josses as 7th in the pecking order.  Truth is though that the last three will not run, which leaves Josses fourth.

His technique can only improve from this point imo.  Based on his hurdles form, his optimum conditions were going a good clip, on good ground with the sun on his back.  At the moment he hasn't had them yet, so whereas now he is fourth in my order, with those conditions, he can only improve - they won't make him go backwards.

If he doesn't improve for them, with the lack of depth in the Arkle, he has place claims no doubt, and then if they want to consider hurdles again, there are good prizes at Aintree and Punchestown.

I think using the Oscar Whisky falling and sadly RIP is unfair on his connections, and Oscar Whisky's.  I'd like to think that if they ever thought either horse was in danger of losing their life, they'd pull the plug on jumping fences.  Both horses owe(d) connections nothing, and their welfare would be top of their priority imo.  I don't know that for sure, I can only guess, but that's what I'd like to think anyway.
Report wellchief February 7, 2015 10:18 AM GMT
Also, going back to a left handed track will help him from yesterday.

He was going to the left all the time, and even when they turned the corner across the polytrack passed the stands, where there are no fences, he struggled to get round going right.  He ran out wide to the left and lost a lot of momentum there and Barry had to wrestle him to get round the corner - if I remember correctly, it was the next fence when he put in the really long one.
Report brandyontherocks February 7, 2015 10:26 AM GMT
Before the Tingle Creek, Budd, you used your eyes and your own opinion and thought it was a crazy idea to run Oscar in a Grade 1 two miler. You said Henderson had made a real mess of his career.
Now though you tell us we should trust his opinion and Josses Hill will be fine in The Arkle. Even though what he has shown on the track is far removed from a Grade 1 chaser.

He still jumped far too big at some, and others he seems to land on his rear legs. He is not a natural. I don't believe he is frightened as he runs with such enthusiasm but he is not a natural fencer.

He may improve with time but I can't see him fulfilling his promise myself.

It is a huge leap of faith to think he can improve with a faster pace. He was still being out jumped yesterday over the last couple by the Tizzard horse. Not being able to win yesterday receiving that weight regardless of not having his optimum conditions was very disappointing.
Report buddeliea February 7, 2015 10:42 AM GMT
Big difference my friend,i did not agree with Oscar running in the Tingle Creek...and yeh I do think they made a mess of his career.......but I DO agree that JH will be better with a fast pace on decent ground,and that's my eyes telling me that in his races his jumping has been fine when the pace increased.The fact that his connections are saying that as well just gives me confidence he will run well in the Arkle and I still have a bet on the day.

Simply don't agree re yesterdays race,as I have said probably too many times now,it was as far from an Arkle you could get for a prep race.Was all about experience and fitness.
Report timtin February 7, 2015 10:50 AM GMT
@buddeliea watching it live I was sure he was going to fall at that one, but once he didn't I was sure he wasn't going to win because his confidence was gone. I think we may see a better jumper next time no doubt as such huge mistakes only help horses to jump better(take UDS fall how good it did for him) but I don't think he has the fluency & the same class over them(as he did over hurdles) to win an arkle... Without fav I wouldn't take anything shorter than 8/1
Report buddeliea February 7, 2015 10:58 AM GMT
Ok mate,fair enough.

For those that are comparing Oscar Whisky with JH.......Really??

One a seasoned campaigner who is totally exposed as to what hes good and not so good at and the other a novice chaser with 3 runs under his belt,2 of which at a distance not his optimum??

Nope, not for me.
Report tomdeane February 7, 2015 12:10 PM GMT
The flip side of that though Bud is that OW was a seasoned campaigner, so his falling was still a surprise even though most people thought he had little chance of laying up in a fat-run Tingle Creek, given that he didn't ever appear to like jumping fences much.

Josses hill looks like a horse that is all at sea over fences, and he makes different mistakes throughout his races. He will be going quicker and against better horses in the Arkle, so while those conditions saw him at his best over hurdles, they are far more likely to see him come down than 2m4f in softer stuff round Kempton. BG keeps saying that it'll suit because they'll go quicker and he'll have no chance to think about his options re fencing - he has never looked clever at his fences, so my heart will be in my mouth if he's wrong at any of those fences when they're going a clip in the Arkle.
Report duffy February 8, 2015 3:49 AM GMT
This thread is like the twilight zone or something like just doesn't seem real....I'm surprised that there is any positive comments about him, now we're seeing...sun on his back and faster pace suiting seems that as bad as he gets, the more positive some get....although on reflection, there may be something in the sun on his back comment, because it does look likely that at some point in the race, geraghty will be removed enabling plenty of sun to get onto his backCrazy
Report buddeliea February 8, 2015 9:50 AM GMT
Maybe some of us like to give a horse every chance before slating him.
Report alleged22 February 8, 2015 12:50 PM GMT
how many chances though budd?
Report buddeliea February 8, 2015 1:05 PM GMT
Well that depends on how you look at Novice Chasers I guess.

Personally I watch a novice and then have a think about what ive seen,and what I think would be his ideal sort of race and how he might improve,if he has to.
JH certainly has to improve, and watching him when the pace quickens I think that's where the improvement will come,plus better ground.
Report Graeme83 February 24, 2015 9:51 PM GMT
BG still thinks this horse can do it. It will be Cheltenhams chariots of fire if he does. I say josses, what that on your hooves, rockets ?
Report wellchief March 14, 2015 9:37 AM GMT
Fully justified his place in the race, and a much improved performance.  Was never going to live with UDS, but I was made up to see him stay on well to place.
Report sintonian March 15, 2015 2:08 PM GMT
Wonder if they'll run at Aintree
Report timtin February 12, 2016 3:52 PM GMT
What a round of jumping, at the last 3 fences i was like wow, woow, wooow. Any ideas where he'll be entered? Hopefully CC as he deserves the chance
Report duffy February 12, 2016 4:05 PM GMT
Don't see it myself, his best jump was the last that's true, but for a large part he was jumping way too big and was sort of going too vertical if you know what I mean and not gaining momentum aT his fences, he was also pretty much untroubled and going slower to help his jumping, festival pace and much tougher competition I'd worry will bring it all back again, that fall was horrific, he just didn't seem to see it there. He's class though but if he were mine I'd be happier over hurdles.Scared
Report ReaseHeath February 12, 2016 4:09 PM GMT
to my untrained eye, his jumping got better as the race went on but I did n't think he was great on the first circuit, a bit hesitant and gave a few of the fences too much air - whether that's down to confidence or that he needs to get warmed up I don't know - in fairness, it could also have been because they were n't going fast enough, which is what connections have said in the past.

The way he finished out the race suggested to me they could even consider stepping him up in trip.
Report ReaseHeath February 12, 2016 4:12 PM GMT
did n't see yours before I posted mine duffy - but I saw it  similarly - it's just a case of whether you believe a faster pace would help or hinder his jumping, I would n't fancy him for Champion Chase certainly.
Report timtin February 12, 2016 4:15 PM GMT
yes not very economical but spectacular hence the wows Happy perhaps a fast pace might force him making another mistake but if he were mine I'd take the chance in the CC as he's classy enough and accidents happen over hurdles as well so no point being afraid..
Report duffy February 12, 2016 4:20 PM GMT
I wonder what his stable lad/lass would like to see him run inScared
Report timtin February 12, 2016 4:29 PM GMT
probably would keep him as pet Grin, but accidents happen at home too and fatal ones as well.. no reason to be afraid he jumped them so high that its more likely to lose the race than fell due to his jumping. I'm more afraid of horses that take lots of risks over fences than ones that don't want to touch a twig.
Report duffy February 12, 2016 4:33 PM GMT
True, I'd just worry that today early on the jockey allowed him to get over them as the horse wanted too, at the festival the jockey will be having to be a bit busier on him and not be so accommodating, he doesn't seem to see a stride quick enough at a faster pace.
Report tomdeane February 12, 2016 4:43 PM GMT
He's a lovely horse and really divides opinion. I think I'd lean more towards the Ryanair in the hope that the extra distance would give him a chance to warm to the jumping task, but I can see the argument for the Champion Chase as it may be that going quicker stops him thinking too much about the fences. I suppose the other tempter in relation to the Ryanair is that it looks very winnable and a horse of his class could easily do it if everything clicked on the day.
Report buddeliea February 12, 2016 6:39 PM GMT
He still jumps big, but hes not gonna fall jumping like that.
I actually thought that was a fair round today,but I do think now he needs a trip, maybe even up to 3m.
Love to see him trained that way next season.
This season? Either Ryanair or something like the Aintree Bowl perhaps?
Report DECALEC February 12, 2016 8:22 PM GMT
If UDS was ridden as was over hdls I would give JOSSES a chance in CC but as UDS is usually restrained in front this won't  Help,I don't think they can go fast enough for JOSSES,if there was a NEWMILL type in there that would be up his street,even the ARKLE last year UDS was waited in Front and thought JOSSES done alright in the circumstances
Report timtin February 12, 2016 8:31 PM GMT
right @Decalec, a strongly run CC would suit Josses. If they'll give him the chance and UDS is taken on by ST from the start and then SS will taken him on from the top of the hill, its possible to see JH get involved in the home straight and who knows. Just deserves a shot in a championship event especially on todays run.
Report buddeliea February 12, 2016 8:59 PM GMT
I just don't think he will be quick enough at the fences for 2 miles.
He was going away again at the end today, he's such a big horse as well,I just think he's a stayer more than a speed horse.
Report Hussard February 14, 2016 12:11 PM GMT
The horse seemed to have learned from the horrendous fall and was making sure he did not do it again once he got more confident his jumping was very polished and maybe that fall has actually woken his ideas up.

In terms of value there is little to be had so 16-1 NRNB without UDS in the CC is value in my eyes. He could jumping well finish second and getting fourth in a small field is far from difficult. Non runner money back. I feel that is a solid bet after he jumped far better especially as the race progressed.
Report buddeliea February 14, 2016 12:39 PM GMT
Ryanair according to trainer,and would make perfect sense the way he ran over similar distance yesterday.
Report buddeliea February 14, 2016 2:26 PM GMT
20/1 available nice price imo.
Report wellchief February 14, 2016 4:01 PM GMT
He was getting a decent chunk of weight off Gods Own the other day, and it was his first attempt at 2.5m over fences.

I think JH needs to improve a fair bit if he is to get involved in a QMCC or a Ryanair.  I think I'd rather be on RTR, VVM, Valseur Lido and Valtat before Josses Hill, although I admit the first three are by no means confirmed runners.

I always look at stayers in the Ryanair.  Uxizandre looks the exception as he was a 2m-2.5miler.

A lot of recent winners: Cue Card, Dynaste, Albertas, Riverside, Imperial Commander, Our Vic had all lost a 3m chase that season; ie they were tried at a top class staying chase and were not good enough, so we re-routed to this.  I see that as a big plus for RTR, Valsuer Lido and Al Ferof.
Report buddeliea February 14, 2016 4:08 PM GMT
Exactly Chief, RTR and VL are not definite runners,should either or both of them turn up its obviously a tougher ask.
As for the distance,I think he needs a trip looking at him and right now the Ryanair looks perfect for him.
If Alf is fav on the day,I will be quiet excited with 20/1 JH.
Report wellchief February 14, 2016 4:11 PM GMT
No doubt in my mind, Josses Hill would have a much better chance in the Ryanair than a QMCC, even if RTR and/or VL turned up.
Report shockster February 14, 2016 4:12 PM GMT
With doubts about so many runners I think JH is a fair shout but now only 16s so will leave.
Report buddeliea February 14, 2016 4:14 PM GMT
Absolutely mate,without RTR,Vautor,VL,it's not a great race.
The Queen mother would be all too quick for his jumping imo.
Report wellchief February 14, 2016 4:20 PM GMT
In the last four years Al Ferof has won first time out and then not won for the rest of the year.

The presence of the likes of RTR, VL and VVM make it a very difficult race to back in.  If they run, I personally think JH has little chance, and you've done your money.  If they don't run, he could go off near favourite.

Village Vic open to more improvement, and with the form Annacotty has been in this year, I think he deserves a crack at this too.
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