Betting.Betfair

I'm not sure whether the draw for the Copa Del Rey is done with a computer or whether there's a whole live televised spectacle with ex-players and pundits picking brightly coloured balls out of a bowl. By the way, I've always wondered why Club Executives present at the draws feel the need to furiously scribble down the team (or teams when it's the Champions or Europa League group stages) that their club is up against. Are their memories that bad? Do they not have iphones and Blackberries to check in case they do forget? Either way, by Real Madrid and Barcelona being drawn together before the final stage, we, as football fans, are treated to an extra game between these two.

Match Odds

How you play this market completely depends on what you consider to be the most important factors.

Real Madrid have home advantage and may feel that, having beaten Barcelona in last year's final of this very competition, they have the upper hand. Jose Mourinho's men are five points clear of their rivals in the league so there's an argument to say they're actually in better shape than Barca this season. Should they really be a bigger price than Barcelona at the Bernabeu?

Barcelona may not be at their absolute best. A couple of weeks ago they allowed a 1-0 lead at Espanyol to turn into a draw though the stats (see the attempts to post (sic) column) suggests they were unlucky while on Sunday they were 2-0 up, allowed Betis to get to 2-2 and only went ahead again after their opponents had a man sent off, eventually winning 4-2. But this is Barcelona, the same Barcelona who recovered from going a goal down within a minute to beat Real Madrid at the Bernabeu back in December. The same team who, since Pep Guardiola has been in charge have won every competition they've entered (bar the 2010/11 Champions League and last year's Copa Del Rey) including numerous European Super Cups, Spanish Super Cups and World Club Championships. 2.7 on the best club team in the world to win a match? Huge price, surely.

Don't rule out the draw. If we take every match played between these two since the start of last season, four out of eight have been stalemates. That of course includes last year's Copa Del Rey final because it was 0-0 after 90 minutes. They also drew 1-1 at the Bernabeu in last season's La Liga and second leg of the Champions League and 2-2 in the first leg of this year's Spanish Super Cup. The draw is 3.5.

If Real Madrid haven't beaten Barcelona in 90 minutes in their last 12 attempts they're unlikely to do so here. That's what the stats say. So laying Real at is an option at 2.88, as is backing Barcelona on the draw/no bet market at 1.9.The preference is probably for the latter.

Both Teams to score

There's no real bias in terms of over/under 2.5 goals patterns. The last three have all been overs but the four before that were 'unders'. The one before that was of course a certain 5-0. The better bet might be to back both teams to score. This would have paid out in five of the last six and with neither defence looking particularly great at the moment, that looks a safe option at 1.68.

To Score

If Cristiano Ronaldo is wondering why he hasn't won the Ballon D'Or more often he need look no further than his goalscoring record against Barcelona. Because let's face it, Barcelona are the team stopping his Real Madrid from winning trophies. In his last eight matches against Guardiola' s men (not including last year's Copa final as that was in extra-time) he's scored just twice. Not a bad return for a normal player. But the point is he isn't a normal player.

His overall goalscoring record explains why he's as short as 2.2 to score at anytime even though his record against Barcelona suggests that's a poor price. Rather than rising to the occasion on the biggest stage Ronaldo seems to either go into his shell or get visibly frustrated by the fact things aren't going his way. Something we've also witnessed when he plays at major tournaments for Portugal. We don't care which but we're definitely laying him at that price.

Best bet: Back both teams to score at 1.68
Lay Cristiano Ronaldo to score at 2.2

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Leicester v Nottingham Forest (Tuesday, 19:30, ESPN)

With Leicester and Nottingham Forest starting the season with former England managers, few would have guessed that Derby would be the east midlands' leading light midway through the campaign, but that reflects how miserable things have been for their neighbours.

Both have changed bosses without any noticeable improvement, Leicester still seven points off the play-off pace under Nigel Pearson and Forest stuck in the bottom three with Steve Cotterill, and they head into this clash on the back of home defeats to Barnsley and Southampton.

Leicester have a better squad, however there are several reasons to believe that laying them is the best option here at 1.8. For starters, they have bowed out at this stage in four of the last five years, with a replay proving their undoing in three of those.

Additionally, the Foxes have won none of their last three meetings with their rivals and are winless in four games as hosts, while the visitors have picked up more points on the road than they have at the City Ground this term.

In terms of goals, under 2.5 goals appears the way to go at 1.74, as in addition to four of Leicester's last five at the King Power Stadium ending in that fashion, Forest have fired blanks in a staggering nine of their last ten encounters.

It is 2.24 that the strugglers are shut out again, with odds of 10.0 available on the goalless draw of the initial tie being replicated. Forest are 3.4 to qualify.

Best Bet: Lay Leicester to win @ 1.8


QPR v MK Dons (Tuesday, 19:45, ITV4)

New QPR chief Mark Hughes may wish that he'd employed the tactic used by many managers hired in mid-season and sat out the tough first away match in the stands, watched his new club lose and then made a triumphant debut in an easier home game.

Most pundits are agreed that Hoops fans could find encouragement in Sunday's 1-0 reverse up at Newcastle though, where they were beaten by the only shot on target that they allowed, and 1.87 is a fairly generous price to see off a team two divisions lower.

One of the reasons why QPR are so far below Norwich and Swansea, who they finished above in the Championship, is a failure to perform at Loftus Road - their one win in 11 achieved against nine-man Chelsea. Hughes' most pressing job therefore will be to fix that, and this is a good starting point.

It might not be his strongest side selected, with Wigan's upcoming visit the priority, but whoever takes to the field will know that this is perhaps their one chance to impress before the anticipated influx of new signings.

MK Dons are formidable travellers, the second best in League One behind dominant Charlton in fact, yet haven't carried that form into the more high-profile encounters, losing away to Sheffield Wednesday and Sheffield United and recently blowing a 3-0 lead at Brentford.

Karl Robinson's men have struck in all bar one of their 16 away fixtures though, so 1.8 on both teams to score has to be fancied, while 2-1 [8.6] and 3-1 [16.5] look the pick of the correct score bets.

Best Bet: Back QPR to win @ 1.87

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Pakistan
Pakistan beat Sri Lanka in a Test in Dubai in October last year, employing two spinners Saeed Ajmal and Abdul Rehman. They are likely to use the same ploy against England batsmen, regarded as weak on the Asian spin pitches.

Ajmal insists he has a plan for each England batsman and claims to have invented a new ball called the "teesra". England are unlikely to be worried. An off spinner has three deliveries - one that spins away, one that spins in and one that goes straight on and it doesn't matter what you call them.

There are likely to be nerves about betting Pakistan considering last year's spot-fixing trial, during which Salman Butt, Mohhamad Amir and Mohammad Asif were jailed. Pakistan's squad still has paceman Wahab Riaz, Umar Akmal and Imran Farhat despite their names being mentioned by Mazher Majeed, the corrupt agent, during the fixing trial.

England
It hasn't been an easy start to the tour for England. They have lost Tim Bresnan, the allrounder, to injury and there have been some unconvincing batting displays in the warm-ups.

Indeed, there are worries about the form of Kevin Pietersen and Eoin Morgan. Both are short of runs while Pietersen has twice fallen to spin, suggesting a serious malaise.

England's quandary is whether to pick two spinners. Monty Panesar has been among the wickets but most came on a surface which was six days old while Graeme Swann has shrugged off a thigh problem.

It is probable that England will stick to a tried and trusted four-man attack. James Anderson and Stuart Broad will be joined by Steven Finn or Chris Tremlett.

Venue and conditions
The Dubai International Cricket Stadium has hosted two Test matches, one result and one draw. Pakistan beat Sri Lanka by nine wickets in October but previous to that they met South Africa on a bland surface. From the two matches it takes an average of 140 to take 10 wickets. Ajmal and Rehman, the two spinners, have taken 19 of the 56 wickets to fall.

Match odds
The draw at [2.62] offers a solid back-to-lay advantage as we are sure that it will trade below even money at some point during proceedings.

The Dubai wicket can be a bit of a road, in keeping with traditional Asian conditions. It is more likely to contract sharper if England bat first as their often solid batting line-up can grind down bowling units. We are not so sure about Pakistan, who will rely heavily on Misbah-ul-Haq and Younis Khan.

Still, Misbah has said he is keen to frustrate England and any ponderous play will aid our wager.

England are 2.70 for victory with Pakistan 3.90. Undoubtedly conditions are against England - they have not won a series in Asia since the 2000-01 season in Sri Lanka - but they have the discipline and ability to end that sequence, as discussed in our series preview.

Top Pakistan batsman
Azhar Ali, the 26-year-old right-hander, is Pakistan's top runscorer on this ground. He has 248 runs in two matches. He is likely to go off at around [6.50] for top honours. Younis Khan, with 221, is next best and he enjoys favourite status at around 4.50. Both men will be around [2.00] to score a 50 in the first innings.

Top England batsman
We will give Pietersen a swerve thanks to his dodgy form in the warm-ups and instead fret over which obdurate sort is best deserving of support: Alastair Cook or Jonathan Trott. Both men have the mental application required to shine on these pitches, although Cook will be more vulnerable against a new ball first up. Both should be priced at around [4.50].

Recommended bet
Back to lay the draw @ 2.62

For more cricket betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/

Derby v Coventry

I'd pretty much decided I wouldn't be suggesting backing Derby in this one, given I thought their price would be too short. What a pleasant surprise to find them available to back at 1.94 then: I really did expect to find them trading at a far skinnier mark. Why? Well the Rams have been in excellent form lately. Including last weekend's FA Cup success against Crystal Palace, Nigel Clough's side have won their last four games and conceded just one goal in the process.

County really have emerged well from a dreadful run of five straight defeats during November, and have won their last three home games - including beating West Ham in their most recent Pride Park league outing.

To their credit, Coventry have shown a glimmer of improvement recently, winning a couple of home games over the festive period. But they are still rooted to the foot of the table and seven points adrift of safety. They have not won an away league game all season, losing nine of 12. They rarely get thumped, but with only six goals in those 12 trips, they seldom break through at the other end. They will struggle to make an impression against the Rams, who have won all four of the home games they have played so far against teams in the bottom third.

Back Derby @ 1.94


Ipswich v Blackpool

When you're only just keeping your head above the relegation zone and have lost 10 of your last 13 games, it's probably not the best time to get into a row about female officials. So Paul Jewell may find that his post-match comments after the midweek defeat at Birmingham apply some unwanted additional attention to his and Ipswich's current plight.

Conceding goals is undoubtedly at the heart of why the Tractor Boys are struggling. The 49 they have shipped - at a rate of virtually two a game - gives them comfortably the worst defensive record in the division. They have managed just one clean sheet in 13 attempts - but don't have such problems at the other end, and have netted in more than 75% of their games so far.

So, we can be pretty confident of at least one goal at either end. Throw in the fact that Blackpool's away games have produced an average of 3.23 goals, paying out on Over 2.5 Goals in nine of their 13 matches on the road, and this looks a pretty confident back bet.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.8


Nottingham Forest v Southampton

Think back. Back beyond this week, past New Year's Eve and way before Christmas. In fact, rewind all the way back to November 19. Thierry Henry was still in America and Paul Scholes was still in retirement. November 19 marks the day that Nottingham Forest fans last saw their side score at the City Ground. Four league games and an FA Cup tie, totalling five hours, later and Steve Cotterill's side are still waiting for their next home goal. In fact, last week's goalless cup draw with Leicester means Forest have failed to score in eight of their last nine outings.

Welcoming the league leaders doesn't suggest they are suddenly going to be peppering the net, and Southampton have their own reasons for wanting to keep this one tight. Top of the table since early September, the Saints are in the midst of their worst run of results all campaign: one win in six. They have not won in their last four away games, and managed just one goal in the process.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.82

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Betfair are a partner in one of the most exciting projects launched in greyhound racing in recent years - Racing Post Greyhound TV.

On Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights, top-class greyhound racing is brought to your TV screens via Sky digital channel 231 (Freesat channel 402).

Thursday is Henlow and Hove, Friday is Romford and Sunderland and Saturday is Crayford and Newcastle.

And when you visit betting.betfair.com (http://betting.betfair.com/greyhound-racing/), Darrell Williams and The Lord will highlight the best lays and plays.

Thursday sees the two Hs, Henlow and Hove, star on RPGTV and there is a plethora of open races at both venues - with the star play Bubbly Ebony when he goes from trap one in the 21:32 at Henlow.

Paul Young's dog ran well during the recent Sussex Puppy Trophy at Hove, finishing behind two good sorts in Tullig Joy and Coolavanny Bert, and will have benefited from last week's run over C&D. The draw is a bonus, too.

Also at Henlow, and from the red jacket, goes Stress Nomoor (19:54) who has plenty of wins over this sprint trip and might just make the rails for himself and, set to move off, he could hold up those on his outside.

The class act at the Bedfordshire track tonight, however, is St Leger champion Aero Majestic (21:15) who could return to form over this 550m. He got no run in a heat of the Prestige but might always be prominent in a race where Deanridge Rage could move off from two and Westmead Bolt and Romeo Patrol might get going too late.

At Hove, a star of the Sussex track's BAGS Track Championship team Swift Signal (20:34) catches the eye with Rith Royal could help make the market. The latter showed pace last week, but the selection is so strong and might be tough to hold.

Best race of the night there, however, is the 21:06 where Malbay Phanter looks a decent bet considering he is opposed by pacey sorts in Baran Samedi, Money Ball and French Blue.

Baran Samedi and French Blue were impressive winners last week off the front, but they along with Money Ball could cut each other's throats and the selection might use the outside pitch to keep out of trouble before unleashing that ferocious turn of pace off the second.

Frank Taylor sends out the talented pair of Lughill Valerie (21:40) and Crash Bandit (22:11) for their first runs of 2012 and the Essex trainer can expect both to make hay during the year. They can both be forgiven for being ring-rusty, but look quite forward in trials and Taylor has double claims.

On to tomorrow where the semi-finals of the Coronation Cup take centre-stage at Romford, which shares the RPGTV screens as the weekend kicks off with north-east track Sunderland.

The first semi-final is the very much the 'heat of death' with the layers probably holding all the aces, although a fast start from Rockview Sail (20:34) could upset things for fellow earlybirds Spinkys Nod, Judicial Academy and Munster Champ.
The other semis can go to Roses Rockin (20:50) and Aero Joker (21:06), with Coolavanny Jane a possible lay here with her unlikely to lead as comfortably this time around.

Be sure to be watching the action, with the first two in each of the three semis making it through to Wednesday's live-on-Sky Sports Coronation Cup final card.

For more greyhounds betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/greyhound-racing/

'Kauto Star against Long Run - the decider'.

That may well be how the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup is billed in the run-up to the big day, with press coverage focused almost exclusively on the pair.

Long Run beat Kauto Star twice last season but the old champ has picked himself up off the canvas to win the Betfair Chase and King George (for a record fifth time) this winter. The duo dominate the ante-post market and that one or other of them wins in March is much the most likely outcome. It is arguable that Kauto Star, gloriously in the ascendant this season, ought to be favourite, but there's not much in it and his current price of 5.2 is only marginally longer than it should be.

Kauto Star, his credentials hard to fault, will wait to take on all comers in March. Long Run, in search of a boost, is likely to run in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury in February. A defeat would surely see him deposed as favourite. Such an outcome is unlikely, though the Denman could become a serious trial if he is opposed by Grands Crus and/or Captain Chris, two of the next three in the Gold Cup market.

The exciting novice Grands Crus will make a top-class chaser in time but it's easy to underestimate the gap between top novice and championship races in open company; in any case he makes little appeal ante-post, as his Cheltenham target won't be decided until his trial, either at Newbury or in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham in January.

The ultimate target of the Arkle winner Captain Chris is even more uncertain and, in any case, he has 17 lengths to make up on Long Run from the King George and has yet to prove he's made the jump to this level. With stamina an unknown as well, the Ryanair Chase seems a more plausible Cheltenham target for Captain Chris.

The Lexus Chase effectively binned the claims of the main Irish-trained candidates. Rubi Light didn't have enough stamina or Quito de La Roque enough class to defeat Synchronised, previously seen as a good soft-ground plodder. Synchronised now finds himself fourth favourite for the Gold Cup, but the Lexus was run in a poor time, he seems more ground dependant than most and has never run over fences at Cheltenham.

The pecking order among that trio may change as a result of the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown in February but it's unlikely any will show to enough advantage for a plausible winner of the Gold Cup to emerge. It is just possible that the RSA Chase winner and runner-up Bostons Angel and Jessies Dream could yet break through, though the former has plenty to prove after two runs this season, while Jessies Dream hasn't been seen yet this season due to a setback.

The Betfair Chase may yet prove the key race. Then Kauto Star beat Long Run by eight lengths, a margin reduced to a length-and-a-quarter in the King George, though in the last mile at Kempton, Long Run never really looked likely to win unless Kauto Star faltered. The third at Haydock Weird Al was only two lengths behind Long Run, form that stands up well against most of the other pretenders to the crown.

Weird Al had the benefit of a run, an impressive win in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, though as his record is one suggesting he's best fresh he may not have been at quite the advantage it seemed. He's a sound jumper who should be suited by the test the Gold Cup provides and he has clearly improved since joining Donald McCain. Connections wisely resisted the temptation to go for the King George and Weird Al will go to the Gold Cup a fresh horse.

Diamond Harry clearly needed the run when fourth at Haydock and travelled as well as Long Run to after three out. However, he missed the King George due to lameness, his overall record of fragility more of a worry than it is with Weird Al. Last season's leading novice Time For Rupert was fifth at Haydock, beaten by Weird Al for the second time this season. Cheltenham might suit him better than either Wetherby or Haydock but he has plenty to prove.

The 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup provided a lesson in reducing the race to a match, with Imperial Commander spoiling the Kauto Star/Denman party. Of the candidates to take third, Weird Al, at 32.0 to back, looks the best option to unseat the favourites this time round.

Key Dates
Argento Chase, Cheltenham January 28
Betfair Denman Chase, Newbury, February 11
Hennessy Gold Cup, Leopardstown, February 12
Next declaration stage, February 14

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

Manchester City v Liverpool, 7.45pm, BBC1

A first home defeat of the season against Manchester United in the FA Cup on Sunday means that Manchester City enter this Carling Cup semi-final first leg on their worst run of 2011-12, having won just one of their last four games.

Making matters worse is the fact that captain and star centre back Vincent Kompany will now miss four matches, including both legs of this tie, due to his dismissal at the weekend.

Add into the mix the absence of another defender, Kolo Toure, and Yaya Toure, their most used outfield player, and you get the impression that January, the month that the Premier League leaders usually look forward to more than any other club, will be the most testing of their campaign.

Get through it still top of the table and with a Wembley date confirmed though, and a domestic double will seem very much achievable.

And it's worth noting that while Roberto Mancini's men haven't been in great form recently, the one encounter that they did manage to win was at home to Liverpool, and they did a fairly convincing job of that, strolling to a 3-0 victory.

That was the second time in succession that they beat the Reds by so comfortable a margin at the Etihad Stadium, and as they have triumphed in 28 of their last 31 games in front of their fans, odds of 2.04 on a repeat are difficult to shun.

Liverpool are 4.2 to win on the road for the tenth time this term, however eight of the previous nine came with Luis Suarez involved, the suspended Uruguayan scoring five on those away days and chipping in with a fair few assists too.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Manchester City's FA Cup exit to their neighbours ended a sequence of four straight clean sheets as hosts that was the Citizens' best of the campaign. On the whole though, shut outs have been rarer than usual, with a price perhaps being paid at the back for a more adventurous attacking outlook.

That's not to suggest that the goals that they have leaked have been costly or indicative of major defensive issues - they conceded exactly one in six of the dozen home matches that preceded the three scored by Manchester United.

It's unlikely that Liverpool will strike more than once, but in a two-legged clash that could prove enough to ultimately be decisive.

Three of the last four collisions between the pair have featured over 2.5 goals and this is 2.12 to follow suit, with odds of around 1.98 available on both teams scoring.

That occurs far more frequently at this stage of the competition than you might expect, with just three of the last ten semi-final first legs finishing without both clubs finding the net. In terms of correct score, it is 9.8 that Manchester City prevail 2-1.

Best Bet: Manchester City to win @ 2.04
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Match Odds

Despite not winning at White Hart Lane between 1985 and 2006, Everton have a superb recent record against Tottenham, Opta stats reveal. They have lost just once in the last eight league matches between the two and just once in their last five trips to White Hart Lane. Everton won three of the other four in north London by the way. Damning stats that make you instantly come to the conclusion that the Toffees are great value at 7.2 to win the match.

The problem with historical stats is just that, they don't necessary reflect the here and now. Spurs are a far better team this year than at any stage of that five-year study and Everton are perhaps at their lowest point. If it's not financial problems meaning they have to sell their best players (Mikel Arteta, Yakubu) without getting anyone in that's stalling their progress, it's injuries. Phil Jagielka is out, while Tim Cahill, Leon Osman, Jack Rodwell and Tony Hibbert are all doubtful.

Spurs are almost certain to have to make do without Scott Parker (who as rated as "very doubtful" by Harry Redknapp) whilst the man who would normally deputise for him if injured, Sandro, is definitely out. There's no Ledley King or William Gallas either so Michael Dawson, who returned from a four-month layoff at the weekend, is likely to partner Younes Kaboul.

This may be a good time for Everton to be playing Spurs. A nervous 1-0 home win over West Brom and dropping two points at Swansea following a late equaliser are perhaps an indication that some of the key players like Rafael van der Vaart, Gareth Bale and Luka Modric are a little tired after starting virtually every league match so far this campaign. And the more we think about the head-to-head record between these two and the effect of Parker missing this match will have, the more we're convinced that Spurs look a little short at 1.58. Lay Spurs pre-match with a view to get out at around 2.2.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This market should be a lot easier to crack than the one above. Eight of Everton's last nine matches have been under 2.5 goals and the one that wasn't, a 2-1 defeat to Bolton, included a slight anomaly in that Tim Howard scored a goal . The stats aren't quite as convincing involving Spurs' recent matches but it's still four from the last five that finished with less than three goals. Under 2.5 goals screams out as value at 1.95.

To Score

Emmanuel Adebayor has scored just once in his last five Premier League outings. Having scored eight in his first 12 matches this season, this is a trend that we've been accustomed to with the former Togo international. He starts the season brightly but seems to hit a wall mid-season, the performances go down and the goals dry up. Yet he's still just around the 2.3 mark to score at anytime ahead of this match. A match we fancy to be low-scoring. He's definitely worth laying at that price.

Best Bet

Back under 2.5 goals in Spurs v Everton @ 1.95

Recommended Bet

Lay Emmanuel Adebayor to score at anytime @ 2.3

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Prestige Final

T1 Milwards Swaby
Formerly known as Ravenswood Kim, she has won three from three over six bends since arriving from Ireland in October - two of those victories coming from trap one. Beaten only once in her last five races she is one of a few with chances in a race more open than the betting would suggest.

T2 Fleeting Image
Corn Cuchulainn winner in Ireland last summer and a highly impressive seven length winner in the heats which potentially gives him four lengths to play with. Would be very hard to beat if able to poach an early lead, but can be less effective from off the pace.

T3 Ballymac Iniesta
Broke his Open race duck over six bends at home track Perry Barr last month but on the back foot in the heats after a slow start, which has often been his Achilles heel. Still probably a shade over-priced.

T4 Ballymac William
Former top-class four-bend performer winning the 2010 Monmore Puppy Derby and Olympic. Came back from a long layoff to run fourth in the Eclipse in November before three victories when stepped up to 550m at Henlow. Would be a big player if able to lead from a tricky draw, but might be vulnerable to a stronger finisher.

T5 Bowtime Joey
Has progressed well over six bends winning the Lol Jones 630 at Monmore last month, having done well to reach the Eclipse final over four bends the previous month. Has to overcome a potentially tough draw, but trialled well here before enjoying no luck in his heat. Fancied to spring a surprise.

T6 Express Trend
Thirteen-length winner in front of Sky cameras at Romford on Essex Vase final night confirmed her ability having contested the Oaks semi-finals previously - had also run third behind Fleeting Image in last summer's Corn Cuchulainn. Best when able to dominate on the rails, so has been done no favours here.

Verdict: If he traps in front it will be easy to understand why Fleeting Image is such a warm order here after his impressive heat win, which gives him plenty in hand over his rivals. But he will need to avoid Ballymac William, who has returned to form after a long layoff and has the early pace to spoil the party. Express Trend has tons of ability, but has again been handed a nightmare draw, given her preference for the fence. Bowtime Joey clocked two decent four bend trials here, and while he is also badly drawn, must surely enjoy more luck than in the heats, and at the odds 8.6 rates potential upset material.

19:40 Standard
Scottish Derby winner Taylors Cruise has a good record fresh and is strongly fancied to win on his first start since October having somehow found himself in Division Two! Forest Dot rates best of the rest after a good trial last week.

20:00 Stayers
Shock Prestige elimination Lonely Boy could potentially dot up here on his previous form, but trap six has done him few favours and he might be worth opposing. Luminous Park behind him in two finals last year has also favoured poorly in an all railers heat and 2011 Prestige finalist Farley Zach is selected to take advantage of trap one in a tricky heat.

20:15 Hurdles
Not a race to attack with too much confidence, especially as most of these have not been round here, but Billis Renegade has put a string of good runs together and can use his early pace to good advantage. Jamaican Man would be a threat if trapping, while Baran Billy Hi remains consistent.

20:35 Sprint
A terrific matchup between Lil Risky and track record holder Fifis Rocket, both of whom clocked similar trials here last week. However Lil Risky has been winning races of late, while his rival remains without a score in seven starts. Long odds followers might consider Forest Breeze, whose Henlow form is on a par with the selection and won here last month.

20:50 Marathon
Lottes Girl returned from the Ted Hegarty final at Harolds Cross with an excellent six bend spin here the other day and will be tough to beat if in the same mood with previous verdicts over most of her rivals. Ministry Magpie won the Boxing Day Marathon at Crayford and rates the biggest danger.

21:10 Stayers
Farloe Gambit ran well in the BAGS Championship including over the 645m trip here and can confirm that promise by accounting for more recognised rivals in an open looking heat. Aldataro Lass would hold claims if trapping in front, but Saveourstow Lass faces a tough task from trap four on her return.

21:25 Standard
Farloe Luigi, winner of the Midland Championship can stretch his unbeaten record here to five from five by getting first run on high-class Yahoo Jamie, who makes his local debut after an excellent trial, in a race where a lead for either should prove good enough.

Selections:
Taylors Cruise 19:40
Lottes Girl 20:50
Farloe Luigi 21:25
Bowtime Joey 21:45
Farloe Zach 20:00

For more greyhounds betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/greyhound-racing/

Crystal Palace v Cardiff, 20:00, Sky Sports 1

Every year at this time, you can bank on this writer dragging out his Carling Cup semi-final party piece, one that seems to grow in stature rather than diminish with each passing season, about how home advantage is everything in these ties.

More so than in title deciders, season-defining play-off games and epic Champions League clashes, it is at this stage of this competition that playing in front of your fans lends an air of invincibility. The stat proving so is that 11 of the last 12 Carling Cup semi-final matches have been won by the hosts.

In just two of the last 24 by contrast have the visiting team triumphed, so it is quite a shock despite their superior performance in the Championship to see Cardiff rated 2.42 favourites, and Crystal Palace hugely tempting 3.4 outsiders.

The Bluebirds may well have the slightly stronger side, and one that at present look a decent bet for a long-awaited promotion at 2.68, but the trend has diminished far greater gaps in class - think Derby beating Manchester United in 2009 or Ipswich turning over Arsenal last term.

You'll know doubt want some current form to accompany that historical tendency, yet fear not as there is enough on offer. Cardiff have claimed only one victory in five on the road, and that at drop-zone dwelling Nottingham Forest, whereas Palace have lost just twice at Selhurst Park in 2011-12.

Over/under 2.5 goals

There is far less to read into past Carling Cup semi-final first legs for this market, however there are several reasons to consider under 2.5 goals the more likely outcome at 1.69.

The three most recent meetings between the pair, and indeed 11 of the last 14, have finished that way, while Crystal Palace are one of only three Championship clubs to concede fewer than a goal a game on average. They are at their best in south London, keeping six clean sheets in eight.

Dougie Freedman's men are 3.25 to add another to that tally tonight, and 9.8 to win 1-0.

Best Bet: Crystal Palace to win @ 3.4
Other Recommended Bet: Crystal Palace to win 1-0 @ 9.8

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/