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Crystal Palace v Cardiff, 20:00, Sky Sports 1

Every year at this time, you can bank on this writer dragging out his Carling Cup semi-final party piece, one that seems to grow in stature rather than diminish with each passing season, about how home advantage is everything in these ties.

More so than in title deciders, season-defining play-off games and epic Champions League clashes, it is at this stage of this competition that playing in front of your fans lends an air of invincibility. The stat proving so is that 11 of the last 12 Carling Cup semi-final matches have been won by the hosts.

In just two of the last 24 by contrast have the visiting team triumphed, so it is quite a shock despite their superior performance in the Championship to see Cardiff rated 2.42 favourites, and Crystal Palace hugely tempting 3.4 outsiders.

The Bluebirds may well have the slightly stronger side, and one that at present look a decent bet for a long-awaited promotion at 2.68, but the trend has diminished far greater gaps in class - think Derby beating Manchester United in 2009 or Ipswich turning over Arsenal last term.

You'll know doubt want some current form to accompany that historical tendency, yet fear not as there is enough on offer. Cardiff have claimed only one victory in five on the road, and that at drop-zone dwelling Nottingham Forest, whereas Palace have lost just twice at Selhurst Park in 2011-12.

Over/under 2.5 goals

There is far less to read into past Carling Cup semi-final first legs for this market, however there are several reasons to consider under 2.5 goals the more likely outcome at 1.69.

The three most recent meetings between the pair, and indeed 11 of the last 14, have finished that way, while Crystal Palace are one of only three Championship clubs to concede fewer than a goal a game on average. They are at their best in south London, keeping six clean sheets in eight.

Dougie Freedman's men are 3.25 to add another to that tally tonight, and 9.8 to win 1-0.

Best Bet: Crystal Palace to win @ 3.4
Other Recommended Bet: Crystal Palace to win 1-0 @ 9.8

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