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Derby v Coventry

I'd pretty much decided I wouldn't be suggesting backing Derby in this one, given I thought their price would be too short. What a pleasant surprise to find them available to back at 1.94 then: I really did expect to find them trading at a far skinnier mark. Why? Well the Rams have been in excellent form lately. Including last weekend's FA Cup success against Crystal Palace, Nigel Clough's side have won their last four games and conceded just one goal in the process.

County really have emerged well from a dreadful run of five straight defeats during November, and have won their last three home games - including beating West Ham in their most recent Pride Park league outing.

To their credit, Coventry have shown a glimmer of improvement recently, winning a couple of home games over the festive period. But they are still rooted to the foot of the table and seven points adrift of safety. They have not won an away league game all season, losing nine of 12. They rarely get thumped, but with only six goals in those 12 trips, they seldom break through at the other end. They will struggle to make an impression against the Rams, who have won all four of the home games they have played so far against teams in the bottom third.

Back Derby @ 1.94


Ipswich v Blackpool

When you're only just keeping your head above the relegation zone and have lost 10 of your last 13 games, it's probably not the best time to get into a row about female officials. So Paul Jewell may find that his post-match comments after the midweek defeat at Birmingham apply some unwanted additional attention to his and Ipswich's current plight.

Conceding goals is undoubtedly at the heart of why the Tractor Boys are struggling. The 49 they have shipped - at a rate of virtually two a game - gives them comfortably the worst defensive record in the division. They have managed just one clean sheet in 13 attempts - but don't have such problems at the other end, and have netted in more than 75% of their games so far.

So, we can be pretty confident of at least one goal at either end. Throw in the fact that Blackpool's away games have produced an average of 3.23 goals, paying out on Over 2.5 Goals in nine of their 13 matches on the road, and this looks a pretty confident back bet.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.8


Nottingham Forest v Southampton

Think back. Back beyond this week, past New Year's Eve and way before Christmas. In fact, rewind all the way back to November 19. Thierry Henry was still in America and Paul Scholes was still in retirement. November 19 marks the day that Nottingham Forest fans last saw their side score at the City Ground. Four league games and an FA Cup tie, totalling five hours, later and Steve Cotterill's side are still waiting for their next home goal. In fact, last week's goalless cup draw with Leicester means Forest have failed to score in eight of their last nine outings.

Welcoming the league leaders doesn't suggest they are suddenly going to be peppering the net, and Southampton have their own reasons for wanting to keep this one tight. Top of the table since early September, the Saints are in the midst of their worst run of results all campaign: one win in six. They have not won in their last four away games, and managed just one goal in the process.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.82

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