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[u]Chelsea v Stoke[/u] Four games in - is that too early to think of Chelsea as top-six finishers? Probably not. And that's bad news for the visitors: the Potters have lost 18/23 on the road to such exalted sides. Roberto Di Matteo's lot have won their first two at Stamford Bridge by a couple of goals and lead Stoke 12-1 in meetings there over the last four seasons. This weekend's ride should be as smooth as Patrick Swayze in that scene from Ghost, so it's all about crafting ways to turn a short price on the home win into something a little longer. Well, Stoke have been behind at half-time in 15 of those 18 losses we mentioned earlier. The Chelsea/Chelsea double-result is on offer at 2.12. The final margin in 12 of the 18 was a couple of goals or more, so Chelsea -1.5 ...

[b]These two are leading the charge to the top flight and Friday night's meeting should see Southampton take a giant stride towards being crowned champions...[/b] [i]Southampton v Reading, Friday 19:45, Sky Sports 1, Match odds: Southampton 2.36, Reading 3.35, The Draw 3.45[/i] The Saints have long been involved in a two-horse race for the title, with the subtle difference that it is now Reading rather than West Ham who are mounting the challenge. The pair are tied on 82 points and though automatic promotion is undoubtedly the main prize, both will be gunning to finish top of the pile. The Saints, who have led for much of the way, are 1.87 to go up as champions, while Reading are currently 2.18 to overhaul them. A spectacular run of 13 wins in 15 fixtures has seen the Royals...

[u]Reading v Leicester[/u] Let's jump on the Reading train! The Royals are flying - how else do you describe seven successive league wins with only one goal conceded? Suddenly, what appeared a two-team love-in for automatic promotion between Southampton and West Ham has evolved into a three-way tussle. Reading are only two points behind the leading pair now and, as a club that has traditionally ended the season well, they must surely be seen as capable of avoiding the need of a risk of last season's Play Off agony and going straight up. Brian McDermott's side have actually won 12 of their last 14 league games and at the Madejski their recent record is eight wins out of nine: they have conceded just one goal in their last 12 hours of league football at home. Leicester really are...

[u]Birmingham v Southampton[/u] Just a month ago Birmingham were 14th in the table - four consecutive league victories later and they sit fourth. If you add in FA Cup successes against Wolves and Sheffield United, the Blues have won their last six and are unbeaten in 10 in all competitions. They are the only team in the Championship protecting an undefeated home record, and have been scoring goals for fun: 20 in their last six games. The fact they are hosting Southampton is probably offering us slightly fatter odds than if they were playing at home to just about anyone else. The Saints have stuttered slightly of late, but you still have to admire what has been an outstanding season for a side that, never forget, was in League One last season. The Saints topped the table from mid-September...

[u]Derby v Coventry[/u] I'd pretty much decided I wouldn't be suggesting backing Derby in this one, given I thought their price would be too short. What a pleasant surprise to find them available to back at 1.94 then: I really did expect to find them trading at a far skinnier mark. Why? Well the Rams have been in excellent form lately. Including last weekend's FA Cup success against Crystal Palace, Nigel Clough's side have won their last four games and conceded just one goal in the process. County really have emerged well from a dreadful run of five straight defeats during November, and have won their last three home games - including beating West Ham in their most recent Pride Park league outing. To their credit, Coventry have shown a glimmer of improvement recently, winning a...

Weighing up form between teams from different divisions is the major problem for FA Cup punters, but there are some statistical guidelines that might make this weekend's third-round ties easier to solve. One group that does consistently well is the top-12 in the Championship, who enter the competition with good form behind them in the first half of the season and often feature a surprise performer in the FA Cup, granted a favourable draw. Last season, for example, Reading were eighth in the Championship at this stage of the season and they progressed furthest of the teams from outside the Premier League, going out 1-0 away to eventual winners Manchester City in the quarter-finals. With momentum on their side, the top-12 in the Championship usually deliver the goods when paired against...