Betting.Betfair

Reading v Leicester

Let's jump on the Reading train! The Royals are flying - how else do you describe seven successive league wins with only one goal conceded?

Suddenly, what appeared a two-team love-in for automatic promotion between Southampton and West Ham has evolved into a three-way tussle. Reading are only two points behind the leading pair now and, as a club that has traditionally ended the season well, they must surely be seen as capable of avoiding the need of a risk of last season's Play Off agony and going straight up.

Brian McDermott's side have actually won 12 of their last 14 league games and at the Madejski their recent record is eight wins out of nine: they have conceded just one goal in their last 12 hours of league football at home. Leicester really are inconsistent: back-to-back wins preceded a defeat to struggling Bristol City in midweek. The Foxes have lost three of their last four on the road and Reading are available to back at a bigger price than I expected.

Back Reading @ 2.16


Peterborough v Blackpool

While no-one would want to be seen publicly dancing on the grave of another club, there must have been a few sighs of relief at Peterborough when Portsmouth were deducted 10 points for going into administration. There is generally one team that plummets each season and gets sucked into relegation problems, and with only one league win in 11 games since Boxing Day, Posh would have been prime contenders. However, they seem to have banked enough points now Pompey have sunk to the basement - although their alarming slide from 9th on Guy Fawkes Night to 18th now shows the size of their problems.

It was always going to be likely that a side that scores and concedes so freely might come unstuck, and so it has proved. Peterborough home games have delivered an average of 3.69 goals each, divided almost equally between hosts and visitors. Over 2.5 Goals would have paid out 75% of the time, including in each of the last four at London Road.

So, the team with the highest-scoring home games - hosting the team with the highest-scoring away games. Blackpool's trips away have averaged 3.39 goals each, with 'Overs' a winning bet 78% of the time. Each of Blackpool's last eight away league games would have been winners in this market: given they are visiting Posh, it has to be worth a punt.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.76


Southampton v Barnsley

Southampton seem to have emerged from their stumbling run of a few weeks ago. The Saints lost four of eight in the league either side of Christmas, and how they dealt with that was always going to decide if their incredible attempt to achieve back-to-back promotions would succeed. So an unbeaten eight-game run suggests Nigel Adkins' men have knuckled down and have the ability to complete the job they started so impressively back in August.

Barnsley, conversely, have lost five of their last seven but look very unlikely to get themselves into any trouble given they are still 14 points clear of the bottom three. However, their recent away form indicates they will struggle to offer much resistance at St Mary's: they have lost six of their last seven on the road. A home win is a skinny price though - but if you look deeper and see that the Tykes have not even scored in their last three away games, then you can get a bigger price about Saints winning without conceding, something they have already done eight times at home this term.

Back Southampton Win to Nil @ 2.1

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/