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Weighing up form between teams from different divisions is the major problem for FA Cup punters, but there are some statistical guidelines that might make this weekend's third-round ties easier to solve.

One group that does consistently well is the top-12 in the Championship, who enter the competition with good form behind them in the first half of the season and often feature a surprise performer in the FA Cup, granted a favourable draw. Last season, for example, Reading were eighth in the Championship at this stage of the season and they progressed furthest of the teams from outside the Premier League, going out 1-0 away to eventual winners Manchester City in the quarter-finals.

With momentum on their side, the top-12 in the Championship usually deliver the goods when paired against teams from the bottom half of their own division or the lower leagues. In last year's third round the Championship top-12 won five out of six at the first attempt in such match-ups, returning a near 50 per cent profit to level stakes.

And the two Premier League teams that went on to contest the final - Manchester City and Stoke City - were taken to third-round replays by Leicester City (12th in the Championship at the time) and Cardiff (second in the Championship).

This weekend there are seven matches involving teams from the Championship top-12 against lower-placed sides - Southampton 2.08 away to Coventry, West Ham 2.48 away to Sheffield Wednesday, Middlesbrough 1.48 at home to Shrewsbury, Reading 1.52 at home to Stevenage, Hull 1.88 at home to Ipswich, Blackpool 1.78 away to Fleetwood and Leicester 2.54 away to Nottingham Forest.

Leaving out the shorter-priced pair from that group, wins for three of the remaining five would return a good profit and there is the option of the Asian Handicap safety net with West Ham and Leicester.

The best value in ties involving short-priced Premier League teams can be to back over 2.5 goals, as that type of match-up is often high-scoring. That is particularly the case when a Premier League team is away to a lower-league team - last season seven out of nine third-round ties in that category had over 2.5 goals.

This weekend's matches in that category are Wolves at Birmingham, Swansea at Barnsley, Stoke at Gillingham, QPR at MK Dons, Bolton at Macclesfield, Wigan at Swindon, Aston Villa at Bristol Rovers and Sunderland at Peterborough.

Over 2.5 goals is overwhelmingly favoured in just two of those eight matches and is the outsider in half of them, which indicates that is where the value lies again.

Two managers with good FA Cup records are Stoke's Tony Pulis and Alex McLeish, now with Aston Villa. Both have had three previous seasons as Premier League managers and both have reached at least the quarter-finals two times out of three.

In addition, McLeish won last year's Carling Cup with Birmingham and took five of the ten domestic cup competitions he entered as Rangers manager, while Pulis has shown his appetite for the cups with Stoke's good run in the Europa League this season.

Villa and Stoke both start the FA Cup with trips to League Two sides, Bristol Rovers and Gillingham respectively, and are available outright for the cup at 36.0 and 44.0 respectively. They are back-to-lay options, in the hope that their managers might find a way to the quarter-finals again.

Recommended Bets
Southampton to beat Coventry at 2.08
Blackpool to beat Fleetwood at 1.78
Hull to beat Ipswich at 1.88
Leicester to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.54
West Ham to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 2.48

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