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[b]Australia v Pakistan, Sky Sports 1, 1100hrs BST[/b] [u]Australia[/u] Barring something remarkable, Australia have already qualified for the semi-finals. It would take a huge defeat today and a huge win for India in the other game to deny them, and the Aussies have been more in the 'inflicting huge defeats on other people' business in this tournament. Despite having no discernable middle order they've progressed because of the magnificent form of Shane Watson with bat and ball. If it is possible to win an international contest on the shoulders of one man then they may well do so. Xavier Doherty, the left arm spinner, had a fine game against South Africa on Sunday but may well lose his place (either to Clint McKay or, if the Aussies are feeling really cocky, Dan Christian) as...

[u]Outright market[/u] Despite the helter-skelter nature of Twenty20, one can usually rely on statistics to ensure that a wager emerges from a pack of eight sides who can expect to go close to glory, and the third edition of this tournament is no different. South Africa are third favourites and at 7.2 they represent solid value. They impressed greatly on their tour of England yet it is consistency which is the most important factor. With a win percentage of 69 in the last two years, they are the comfortably the most reliable. The balance South Africa have also inspires confidence. AB De Villiers, Jacques Kallis and Hashim Amla can score quick runs up top, Albie Morkel can blast big numbers in the middle while with the ball the canny limited-overs pace bowling of Dale Steyn and ...

[u]Team News[/u] Shafiul Islam is still out with a shoulder injury but his replacement Nazmul Hossain bowled brilliantly against Sri Lanka and will surely keep his place. Nazimuddin failed again and is vulnerable but Bangladesh won't want to try a new opening partnership for such a big game. Giving the gloves to Umar Akmal allowed Pakistan to play the extra bowler against India in their last game. It wasn't enough to contain the Indian top order, but they'll probably stick with it against Bangladesh, rather than bringing in Asad Shafiq to strengthen the batting. [u]Venue and Conditions[/u] It isn't quite the case that winning the toss means you win the game, but there's a clear pattern emerging at the Shere Bangla Stadium. Each of the last four games has gone to the team batting...

[u]Pakistan[/u] Pakistan beat Sri Lanka in a Test in Dubai in October last year, employing two spinners Saeed Ajmal and Abdul Rehman. They are likely to use the same ploy against England batsmen, regarded as weak on the Asian spin pitches. Ajmal insists he has a plan for each England batsman and claims to have invented a new ball called the "teesra". England are unlikely to be worried. An off spinner has three deliveries - one that spins away, one that spins in and one that goes straight on and it doesn't matter what you call them. There are likely to be nerves about betting Pakistan considering last year's spot-fixing trial, during which Salman Butt, Mohhamad Amir and Mohammad Asif were jailed. Pakistan's squad still has paceman Wahab Riaz, Umar Akmal and Imran Farhat despite their...

On the face of it, the World Cup looks confusing: three host countries, 14 teams, 13 venues, 49 matches and six weeks to find a winner. But a much-maligned marathon of a tournament is actually the punters' friend. Thanks to a projected draw and India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh somehow managing to convince the ICC they are deserving of a home draws in the knockout stages, no matter where they finish, it is pretty simple. Simple in the regard that the tournament is heavily skewed in favour of India and Sri Lanka. On surfaces which the rest of the competing nations, Bangladesh and Pakistan excepted of course, find alien you won't be going far wrong by backing either MS Dhoni's team or Kumar Sangakkara's. India and Sri Lanka are on the opposite sides of the draw so there is a very real...