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When it was confirmed that Stephen Hendry had dropped out of the world's top-16 during last year's championship, there was much speculation concerning whether a Crucible audience would again enjoy the privilege of seeing the greatest player to ever pick up a cue. Happily, Hendry defied the sceptics and, courtesy of a 10-6 qualifying victory over Yu Delu, will make his 27th consecutive appearance in Sheffield. That may well, however, be the limit of his achievement.

To some extent the draw has been kind, as Stuart Bingham is possibly the weakest seed and certainly a much easier first round opponent than most. Nevertheless this is a huge match for Bingham, who is provisionally ranked in the precarious 16th position, and the Essex man has previously shown a capacity to bring his 'A game' to such must-win situations. Twelve months ago, Bingham needed to reach the quarter-finals to qualify for the elite top-16 and would have pulled off that unlikely feat were it not for a magnificent Ding Junhui comeback. Not to be deterred, Bingham went ahead and duly earned his promotion by winning the first ranking event of the year, the Australian Goldfields Open.

Bingham remains a longshot for the title, but he has definitely proved himself to be a player on the up, whereas Hendry is in irreversible decline. Characteristically, he's fought hard to maintain his status and won most of his qualifying matches against lesser players but he has repeatedly been found wanting when reaching the main draw. A further cause for concern is that Hendry spent last week playing exhibitions in China, only returning to the UK on Friday. Whereas that is hardly the ideal preparation, Bingham will surely have been fully focussed on this pivotal match in his career.

Strangely, this pair have only met once before in a ranking event, when Bingham pulled off an enormous shock on his Crucible debut 12 years ago. This time around he's the slight favourite at 1.91 and I'm expecting the same result. Punters looking for an odds-against interest might be best served by a couple of relatively one-sided correct scores.

Recommended Bet
6u Stuart Bingham to win @ 1.91

Correct score
1u Bingham to win 10-6 @ 11.0
1u Bingham to win 10-5 @ 15.0

For more World Snooker betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/

It might have been another disappointing domestic campaign for Sporting but all will be forgiven if they somehow end up in a major European final. To do so, they will have to see off Manchester United's conquerors Athletic Bilbao, the 2.9 favourites to win the competition.

It's a tall order, no doubt, but Sporting have defied poor league form to upset the odds before. Ricardo Sa Pinto's men have already seen off Manchester City in this year's competition and if their performance at Eastlands is anything to go by, they aren't likely to be intimidated this time either.

After finishing a dispiriting 36 points behind champions Porto last season, Sporting had hoped for a new dawn with the appointment of Domingos Paciencia - who led Braga to last year's Europa League final.

But there was to be no dramatic turnaround. Paciencia was eventually dismissed after a run of just two wins in ten in all competitions proved too much to stomach. Following a revival, of sorts, Sporting are now fourth in Portugal's top flight, 13 points off the pace at the top.

They are by no means the first to find themselves gate crashing another country's party in the last four of Europe, though it hasn't always gone the way of the outsider. In last year's Europa League, Villarreal found themselves short of friends, with Braga, Porto and Benfica making up the final four. And on that occasion the Portuguese procession continued, with the Spaniards making way for a Braga v Porto final.

But there is precedent to inspire Sa Pinto's men. In 2008/09, Barcelona had three English clubs for company in the semi-finals of the Champions League. It didn't bother them one jot as they promptly beat Chelsea before seeing off Manchester United in the final. And just two years earlier AC Milan managed a similar feat, toppling Man United in the last four, prior to outgunning Liverpool in the final.

Sporting Lisbon are 7.8 to win the competition outright and perhaps a slightly more probable 2.8 to triumph in the first leg of their semi-final.

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A tried and trusted formula for making money on snooker involves studying the draw and trying to predict how it will pan out over the tournament. Picking out one player from each quarter leaves open the possibility of a dream semi-final line-up, although more realistically, just getting one or two of the semi-finalists should create an opportunity to 'green up' before the tournament ends.

Quarter One: 2u Stephen Maguire @ 18.5
No player has defended this title since Stephen Hendry in his pomp during the early 1990s and after a terrible season by his standards, there is little to suggest John Higgins is about to buck the trend. The draw hasn't done him any favours either, presenting one of the most dangerous first-round opponents in Liang Wenbo, yet the Wizard of Wishaw remains clear favourite in this top quarter, offering several value alternatives.

A good case could be made on value grounds for 140.0 chance Stuart Bingham, who is seeded to meet Higgins in round two, but slight preference is for Stephen Maguire, in the hope that the Glaswegian will finally achieve his infamous potential on snooker's biggest stage. While Maguire has produced some great snooker in this event, his most memorable Crucible moments involve throwing away big leads to Ronnie O'Sullivan and, most painfully, to Higgins in the 2007 semi.

Narrow defeats in two ranking finals this year failed to dispel his 'nearly man' status and a similar fate may await in the latter stages, but with easily the best recent form amongst this section, is fancied to reach them and therefore trade much shorter. It may be significant that Maguire defeated his nemesis Higgins in their two recent ranking event encounters, 6-4 at the UK Championship and 5-0 in the German Masters.

Quarter Two: 6u Judd Trump @ 6.6
Last year's runner-up thoroughly deserves the pre-tournament favourite's tag, especially having been placed in by far the weakest section of the draw. He's already shown a love for this big stage and by landing the sport's second-most prestigious title at the UK Championship, Judd set the benchmark as snooker's new man to beat. The only realistic threats in this quarter are Shaun Murphy and Stephen Lee, who are drawn to play one another before meeting Trump in the quarter-finals, assuming they negotiate tough first round assignments.

Quarter Three: 4u Neil Robertson @ 10.5
It was no surprise to see Neil Robertson flop when returning to the Crucible as champion and given his all-round improvement since winning here in 2010, the Melbourne Machine represents excellent value to regain the title. The reigning Masters champion has since become arguably snooker's most complete player - marrying superb break-building talent with a smart, patient tactical game - as all-comers found to their cost at Wembley. Robertson and Judd Trump have already played out classic semi-finals this season in the two biggest events, signalling the beginning of a great rivalry. With the Crucible draw pitching them in opposite halves, they could well contest the final.

There is one huge obstacle to Robertson in this quarter - three-times champ Ronnie O'Sullivan - and should the seedings work out theirs could be a classic quarter-final. Ronnie, however, must first deal with Peter Ebdon and Mark Williams, whereas Robbo has a more straightforward route with Ken Doherty and probably Martin Gould.

Quarter Four: 3u Ding Junhui @ 13.5
The bottom quarter looks the toughest to solve, including four of the best players never to win this title. Twice runner-up Matthew Stevens is by far the least likely of them, but can hardly be written off given eight quarter-final appearances at the Crucible.

World number one Mark Selby has been heavily backed every year since losing the 2007 final, but the 'Jester from Leicester' has developed a nasty habit of ruining his chance by throwing in one bad performance. Should Selby and Stevens meet in the last-16 as expected, it could be closer than the odds suggest.

Nor will it be easy to separate Mark Allen and Ding Junhui should they meet in round two but as both of these recent ranking event winners are available in double figures, they represent better value than Selby. Very marginal preference is for Ding, who is reportedly flying in practice and must be considered unfortunate to have lost a classic semi to Trump last year. He ended Selby's challenge 12 months ago and confirmed superiority in the Welsh Open final. Ding is a much smarter character than the erratic potting machine that first emerged on the scene and could be ready to fulfil the expectations heaped on him as a teenager.

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid, 19:45, Sky Sports 2

When the Champions League reaches the semi-final stage, does a side's progress to this point of the competition tell us anything about what's likely to happen this week?

Most of Real and Bayern's games have come against weaker sides so surely, for example, Real's outstanding form in the competition to date is no guide to how they'll fare against the Bavarian giants. Then again, 10 games is a decent body of evidence so it's possible to draw some conclusions about the team's strengths and weaknesses.

Match Odds

Having watched both teams several times this season, my feeling is Real Madrid have a slightly better chance of winning the game. They've won nine of 10 Champions League games and 27 of 33 league fixtures (84% win rate), and it matters little this game is away from home: Jose Mourinho's side have won four of five on the road in Europe and 13 of 16 in the league.

Bayern have a 100% home record in the tournament but have lost twice away (v Manchester City and Basel), and the fact they've lost home and away to Borussia Dortmund in the league is a further sign of their flaws. They're good enough to get a draw (3.6), but Real are favourites for me, so the price of 2.86 on the visitors is more appealing than the 2.72 on the hosts.

Overs / Unders

There are no clear under / overs goals patterns looking at the two teams' games in the competition so far: 7/10 Bayern games have had under 2.5 goals, with 7/10 Real Madrid games containing overs. Real's outstanding attacking firepower has obviously led to many of their league games featuring overs (25/33), while Bayern are more limited in that respect and had an excellent defensive record in the first-half of their domestic season, leading to a much lower overs count (17/31).

Over 2.5 goals is 1.89 and unders 2.1. This is a market I'd leave alone.

Both Teams to Score?

The stats say it's highly likely Real will score. They've found the net in all 10 Champions League games and 30 of 33 league games. 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market is therefore worth considering at 1.62 if you think Bayern will be good enough to breach the visitors' defence. The Germans have scored in all five Champions League home games this season, although their inability to find the net against Basel (away) in the last 16, Manchester City (away) in the group stages and home and away against Borussia Dortmund in the league is a concern.

Other Markets

Real Madrid have scored in both halves in seven of 10 games in the tournament so the price of 2.92 on them doing so in Munich is worth considering. Another market to have a look at is Real to win a half at 1.77. They've managed that in every game so far

The 'To Score' market - where you back individual players to find the net - is also worth a look. Mario Gomez (11 goals), Cristiano Ronaldo (eight) and Karim Benzema (seven) have all excelled in the competition, and are the three players most likely to find the net if, as expected, there are goals in the game. Of the three, Benzema offers the best value - he'll be around 3.4 to add to his tally. Gomez will be around 2.5, with Ronaldo nearer to the 2.0 mark.

Best Bet: Real Madrid to score in both halves @ 2.92.
Other Recommended Bets: Real Madrid to win @ 2.86; Real Madrid to win a half @ 1.77; Karim Benzema to score @ 3.4.

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The last two week's in variety entertainment land has seen just about everything that is good, and everything that is bad on Britain's Got Talent.

We've had dancing dogs, camp men-bands, outstanding singers, terrific dance troupes, basketball gymnasts, and of course, some not-so-outstanding singers.

Zipparah Tafari falls into that very last category, but he was easily the most likeable act from the last fortnight. Containing more self confidence than Simon Cowell at a lap-dancing club, Zippy - as Cowell preferred to call him - performed a catchy number about something most of us do every single day - lose a mobile phone and a set of keys.

Was Zippy the greatest singer in the world? No. But in this case it didn't matter one bit. The 49-year-old, possessing a hugely likeable personality, managed to turn something we can all relate to into a fun, uplifting, song. He might have to start singing, "Where's ma tea, where's ma scones, where's ma tea, where's ma scones", if he wants to impress the Royal Family, but failing that, he will surely have a summer hit with his novelty number.

When it comes to dance troupes then 2009 BGT winners Diversity easily set the standard, and no act has come close to being as good since. But on Saturday we saw a group called United We Stand who quite possibly could be the next... well, Diversity!

Consisting of both males and females ranging from the ages of 17-25 United We Stand were full of energy, extremely slick, and produced a very polished performance. It's all about imagination and creativeness if you want to be a successful dance act on this show, and these guys are by some distance the best we've seen in the last few years. I said a few weeks ago that I don't like the Twist & Pulse Dance Company, and I still don't. United We Stand blow them out of the water quite frankly.

Britain's Got Talent wouldn't be Britain's Got Talent without a very good dog act, and again, it's quite possible that this year we've seen the best the show has ever had to offer in the form of Ashleigh and Pudsey.

I can officially confirm that Pudsey isn't the small one from Ant & Dec in costume, he really is a dog, and a bloody good dancing one too. Cowell adored the act, but then he's always been a dog lover, ever since he met Sinitta I'm told. I wasn't so keen. The dog was brilliant, and Ashleigh and Pudsey will certainly make the final, but ultimately acts like this become very boring.

A trio of female singers have impressed during the last fortnight, and all have the potential to go far. One, maybe two, of Paige Turley, Chelsea Redfern and Hope Murphy should make the final, and whilst I'm not convinced at this stage that any will win, 18-year-old Redfern is definitely the one that I like best. Her rendition of Purple Rain - a really difficult song to perform - was outstanding and deserved all the praise it received from the judges.

My last mention this week goes to The Showbears, and it's not a very encouraging one.

Consisting of five camp men dressed as sailors, The Showbears were all too predictable, and not very good at all. It was pretty obvious that they were going to do a cheap version of It's Raining Men, and had they have been brilliant dancers and excellent singers then I would have been heaping praise on them. But they were dreadful; couldn't sing, couldn't dance and their act was extremely boring.

David Walliams thought otherwise and got on stage to perform with them, but consider this - if the group consisted of five straight men/women trying to be a successful group then they would have been booed off the stage. The Showbears were fun yes, but on performances alone they were absolutely rubbish. I know I know, I'm a killjoy.

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These two are leading the charge to the top flight and Friday night's meeting should see Southampton take a giant stride towards being crowned champions...


Southampton v Reading, Friday 19:45, Sky Sports 1, Match odds: Southampton 2.36, Reading 3.35, The Draw 3.45

The Saints have long been involved in a two-horse race for the title, with the subtle difference that it is now Reading rather than West Ham who are mounting the challenge.

The pair are tied on 82 points and though automatic promotion is undoubtedly the main prize, both will be gunning to finish top of the pile. The Saints, who have led for much of the way, are 1.87 to go up as champions, while Reading are currently 2.18 to overhaul them.

A spectacular run of 13 wins in 15 fixtures has seen the Royals into second and they need just seven points from their last four to guarantee their spot in next season's Premier League.

But they will have their work cut out to take anything from a trip to the south coast, where Nigel Adkins' side have lost just twice in the Championship all season. The Saints have won four and lost none of their previous seven league fixtures at St Mary's.

And while Brian McDermott's side are certainly no soft touch on their travels, they have shown signs of vulnerability away from home in recent weeks. Reading were held to a draw at Doncaster, before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat at London Road. But normal service has since been resumed, with hard-fought wins at fellow promotion chasers West Ham and latterly Brighton.


Over/Under 2.5 goals

Eight of Southampton's previous ten league fixtures at St Mary's have produced fewer than three goals, seven featuring exactly two. Meanwhile, Reading's last two contests have contained a total of just three goals.


To score

In Rickie Lambert and Billy Sharp, Southampton possess the league's most potent strike force. The pair have 41 league goals between them and have netted nine in the Saints' last six clashes. The Championship's player of the year will be available at around 2.42 to score at any time, with Sharp at 3.05.


Best Bet: Southampton to win @ 2.36
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.92



For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Ross Brawn is weaving his magic again with Mercedes new 'F-Duct' offering blistering speed - but can that advantage be turned into points this weekend?


When it comes to cracking ideas, the only inventors who can claim to be better than Ross Brawn are Wallace and Gromit.

It's now three years since Brawn took the Formula One world by storm when his 'blown diffuser' catapulted Jenson Button to the world title. Now he's back with another gizmo - the 'F duct' - and he's got the rest of the grid using the 'F' word about it.

Just like with the diffuser, the default response of other teams to seeing an innovative bit of technology isn't to design their own version, but to call for the lawyers and have it declared illegal. The FIA's technical head Charlie Whiting has already approved it twice, but that isn't stopping the debate. Other teams want a third ruling this weekend.

So far those arguments have pretty much rumbled in the background because Brawn's Mercedes team haven't taken too much advantage of it. In 2009 Button used his technology to get a flying start in the drivers' championship, but Mercedes have failed to cash in this time.

Their car has been highly competitive in qualifying, with Michael Schumacher delivering his best performances since the team's director Norbert Haug persuaded him out of retirement in 2010. The German legend has been fourth and then third on the grid, but not done better than a single point gained for finishing tenth in Malaysia. Meanwhile, Nico Rosberg has twice lined up in seventh spot, but failed to deliver in the race on both occasions.

Brawn puts that down to a Formula One equivalent of wearing the wrong trousers. It's because they have failed to manage their tyres properly in differing climates, he says, and believes that the issues have been identified and solved before China this weekend.

"Our qualifying speed tells us the fundamentals of performance are there," says Brawn (possibly before taking a slice of Wensleydale).

"You can't do the lap times if you don't have enough downforce, horsepower or a good chassis. We have plans and actions in place to improve our tyre management."

If he's right, then the two Mercedes drivers are cracking value this weekend! Schumacher is 2.92 to nudge into the top three in qualifying, and 6.4 to follow that up with a podium finish on Sunday.

The rain in Malaysia means we still don't know for sure which cars are quickest this season. The McLaren is obviously fast thanks to their different nose design, the Red Bulls have definitely lost their big advantage, and are as long as 3.35 to provide the winning car.

This weekend the forecast for Shanghai says cloudy but dry and by Monday we'll know far more about whether Schumacher will be a contender for the drivers' title again.

As Ross Brown might say, and Wallace and Gromit definitely would, it promises to be A Grand Day Out!


Five things you might not know about Norbert Haug

1. Born November 1952 in the small South German town of Engelsbrand, his dad was a big motor sport fan who introduced Norbert to his passion.

2. As a teenager he volunteered to do unpaid work on the local paper in the nearby town of Pforzheim, then joined as a trainee reporter. As soon as he'd qualified he moved into covering motor sports, and by 1988 was deputy editor of Motor und Sport magazine.

3. He also raced cars as a hobby. He finished second in the 1985 24 hours Nurburgring.

4. He switched sides from writing about the sport to earning his living in it when he joined Mercedes as head of motor racing in 1990. His first move was to insist that all cars linked to the company were painted silver.

5. He was the force behind persuading Michael Schumacher to come out of retirement after Mercedes bought the Brawn team - the two had become close friends when Schumacher regularly took him to after race Ferari parties.

What type of horse is suited to the race?

Although a range of different types of horses have triumphed in the race, there are undoubtedly a number of attributes to look for when trying to find a prospective Grand National winner. Solid, not necessarily exuberant, jumpers should be at the top of any list, with those horses deemed intelligent and agile enough to be able to sidestep any sudden obstacles particularly sought after. Tactical speed is also necessary as those liable to get left behind during the early stages often fail to get involved. Quirky performers can take to the demands of the race but more often than not they don't, so placing your faith in a genuine, thorough stayer gives you the best possible chance of a run for your money.


Is experience of the course vital?

No but it definitely helps. Last year's winner Ballabriggs had never previously raced over Aintree's chase track prior to his two-and-a-quarter-length defeat of Oscar Time, but eight of the 10 previous winners had seen the course before, with Red Marauder ('01 winner), Amberleigh House ('04), Hedgehunter ('05) and Mon Mome ('09) all having contested the National 12 months earlier. Form over the unique spruce obstacles is also a positive; Earth Summit, Amberleigh House, Clan Royal (also won Topham Chase over the fences), Silver Birch and Black Apalachi were all Becher Chase winners who either won or were runner-up in a Grand National, whilst '04 Fox Hunters' hero Forest Gunner finished fifth in the big one the following year. This season's Becher went to West End Rocker, while Always Waining has won the last two renewals of the Topham.


Does the amount of weight by a horse carried play a significant part?

While the success of Little Polvier in '89 kick-started a run of 15 consecutive winners carrying under 11-0, both Mon Mome and Ballabriggs have shouldered that specific weight to victory in the last three years, with Don't Push It lumping 5 lb more to win two years ago. With the higher-rated horses now being more favourably treated by the official handicapper than in years gone by, it's only a matter of time before a horse at the head of the weights triumphs, and Synchronised (11-10) and Ballabriggs (11-9) hold strong claims of doing just that on Saturday.


Which horses have already proved they have the class to triumph this weekend?

Since the void National of '93 the average Timeform rating achieved by the winner has been at least 154, and those horses to have already run to that figure or more at least once are Ballabriggs, Black Apalachi, Calgary Bay, Deep Purple, Junior, Mon Mome, Neptune Collonges, Planet of Sound, State of Play, Synchronised, Vic Venturi and Weird Al.

Those on the cusp (have run to 150+) are Alfa Beat, Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey (would have done so but for unseating two out at Cheltenham), In Compliance, Killyglen, Rare Bob, Seabass, Shakalakaboomboom, Sunnyhillboy and The Midnight Club.

That said, instantly striking out those horses that don't reside within those two lists would be folly as Ballabriggs ran to a figure some 15 lb better than anything he'd previously registered when scoring a year ago.


Should I back more than one? Should I bet to place? How do favourites fare?

With the sheer unpredictability of the National, hedging your bets is always a good idea. Of the 26 outright/joint/co favourites since Gold Cup winning-market leader Master Oats finished fifth in '95, five have triumphed and a further five have finished in the frame so taking one or two of those at the forefront of the betting will usually provide you with something to cheer as they approach the final throws. That said, the big-priced successes of Mon Mome, Silver Birch and Red Marauder since the turn of the century show it's also worthy chancing any outsider that takes your fancy. It is the National after all.

As well as backing your selection to win, Betfair also offer the opportunity for you to back your horse to place, i.e. to finish in the first four places. There are also special markets open whereby you can bet on predicting the "Longest Winning SP" and the longest "Winning Distance (Odds)" of the three-day meeting, as well as who will be crowned "Top Jockey" and "Top Trainer" from the start of the action on Thursday to close of play on Saturday.


When should I admit defeat?

Not until the first horse has passed the post, just ask Dave ****, rider of winner E.S.B. in the famous Devon Loch saga of 1956.

Unlike those betting with high-street bookmakers, punters using Betfair have the opportunity to back and lay horses during the race and there are a number of horses in the line-up who have previous for overcoming significant in-running highs.

The most notable of these is probably Synchronised, whose on-and-off-the-bridle running style saw him defy in-play peaks of 23.0 (began race at a Betfair Starting Price of 9.49) in the Lexus Chase and 25.0 (BSP 10.35) in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on his last two starts. Stablemate Sunnyhillboy also overcame huge odds of 160.0 (BSP 9.53) when winning the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last time, as did Deep Purple, Tatenen, According To Pete and Swing Bill when winning respective races during this season.

Of the Irish representatives, despite being sent off an under-3.0 favourite for both races, Seabass touched in-running summits of 11.0 and 13.0 when scoring at Punchestown in December and Naas in February, while Alfa Beat shrugged off big in-play drifts when winning both of his Kerry Nationals and Organisedconfusion hit 75.0 (BSP 27.66) when landing the 2011 Irish National.

Finally it's worth pointing out that Always Waining touched 25.0 (BSP 8.39) when scooping the Topham of 2010 and 44.0 (BSP 32.0) when following up 12 months later, and Mon Mome, who'd started at a BSP of 143.59, won the 2009 Grand National despite being matched at the ceiling price of 1000.0 during the race.


For more Grand National betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/grand-national/

Brian Davis returns to the scene of his incredible act of sportsmanship and he's in form too, but they'll all have to go to beat Luke Donald this week says Mike Norman.


Another fine week was enjoyed by the Form Guide at last week's US Masters. Three of our four selections recorded top-10 finishes, and two of them - Phil Mickelson and Peter Hanson - recorded top-five finishes.

Hanson was the biggest success story however. A pre-tournament 280.0 selection, the Swede led after round three and was available to lay at a low of 4.1 on Saturday night.

Although my recommended bets are always in the Winner market, I would always lay such huge-price selections should they reach a single figure price and/or cover them in the Top Five Finish market pre-tournament. In the last three weeks alone we've had Kevin Na (90.0 to win), Jose-Manuel Lara (80.0), Keegan Bradley (20.0), Hanson (280.0) and Mickelson (14.0) all finish in the top-five.

The European Tour moves to Asia this week where a trio of star names - including Masters runner-up Louis Oosthuizen - have assembled, whilst in America, the RBC Heritage really excites me because it includes some bang in-form players who have performed well at the venue previously.


PGA Tour - RBC Heritage

(Tournaments used: US Masters, Shell Houston Open, Arnold Palmer Invitational, Transitions Championship, WGC Cadillac Championship, Puerto Rico Open, Honda Classic)


Luke Donald (2)... 29 (T5 2011, T5 2010, T5 2009)
Jim Furyk (1)... 15 (W 2010)
Brian Davis (2)... 14.5 (T5 2010)
Matt Kuchar (3)... 13.5
Jeff Overton (2)... 11
Ernie Els (2)... 11
Bo Van Pelt (2)... 10 (T5 2010)


*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in last six weeks/tournaments on tour
**information after a player's points relates to wins (W), top-five (T5) and top-10 (T10) finishes in corresponding tournament in previous three years


I remember Phil Mickelson once saying that your game is either suited to Hilton Head (Harbour Town Golf Links) or it isn't - in his case I'm assuming his game isn't as he never plays there. But for Luke Donald (8.4) his game is definitely suited to the Sea Pines Resort's famous course, which is no surprise given that 'strength' is far less important off the tee.

Seven of the course's 11 par fours stretch out no further than around 430 yards, and all the par threes are less than 200 yards, which means excellent short iron play and shot making are two attributes you must have to play well at Harbour Town.

Donald has these two skills in abundance, which goes a long way to explaining why he has finished second (twice) and third here in the last three years. The Englishman has been in good form recently too, winning the Transitions Championship following a sixth place finish at the WGC - Cadillac Championship. Donald finished only 32nd at Augusta last week, but he shot 68 on Sunday and that bodes well for a strong challenge this week.

Jim Furyk (20.0) won here in 2010 but the abiding memory from that year was Brian Davis' (60.0) tremendous show of sportsmanship on the first play-off hole, calling a foul on himself that cost him the tournament. Perhaps that act will be rewarded with a victory this week with Davis clearly in good heart and returning to a venue that he has fond memories of. The Englishman has finished in a tie for fourth on his last two outings and a strong showing this week will come as no surprise.

Of the others, Jeff Overton (60.0) - two top-five finishes in his last three events played - and Bo Van Pelt (28.0) - four top-10 finishes already this season and shot the lowest round of the week (64) at the US Masters - make most appeal.

Recommended Bets: Luke Donald @ 8.4, Bo Van Pelt @ 28.0, Brian Davis @ 60.0, Jeff Overton @ 60.0


European Tour - Maybank Malaysian Open

(Tournaments used: US Masters, Sicilian Open, Trophee Hassan II, Open de Andalucia, WGC Cadillac Championship)


Louis Oosthuizen (2)... 21 (T10 2009*)
Matteo Manassero (2)... 20 (W 2011)
Charl Schwartzel (2)... 14


*2009 Malaysian Open was played at a different venue to the one being used this week


Four players stand out in Malaysia this week, of which three are recommended bets. Martin Kaymer (13.0) has shown very little form for most of the season and is easily dismissed, but Oosthuizen (13.0), Charl Schwartzel (13.0), and Matteo Manassero (18.0) make plenty of appeal given their form in the last six weeks and/or performances at this tournament in previous years. You can dutch the three players at odds of 4.8

Recommended Bet: Dutch Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel and Matteo Manassero @ 4.8


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After Mario Balotelli's red card yesterday, and Wayne Rooney's extended run without a yellow card, Ralph Ellis makes a case for discipline being a vital factor in this season's title race.


To buy one brilliant but truculent striker might be considered bad luck; To get two borders on carelessness; To have signed three in the space of as many years means somebody at Manchester City simply doesn't learn his lessons.

Blame Mario Balotelli, as some have done this morning, for losing the Premier League title if you like. His red card in the final moments of the 1-0 defeat at Arsenal yesterday that left Manchester United with an eight point advantage at the top of the table was after all pretty damn stupid.

But has mad Mario really been any worse an influence on City's season than Carlos Tevez? At least Balotelli has been around to score 14 league goals in the 23 times he's been on the pitch. Is that better, or worse, than chucking your toys out of the pram and going home to Argentina for a three-month sulk on the golf course?

The real problem at Manchester City began back on September 1 2008 when the new owners chose to flaunt their wealth on the day they took over by hi-jacking Chelsea's move for Robinho, spending a £32.5million fee and paying him £160,000 a week. The Brazilian was meant to be the standard bearer for other top players to follow, instead he became the first of too many big egos who wanted to put their own interests ahead of the team. Did anybody responsible for City's recruitment learn the lesson? No. And that's why they've ended up where they are today.

Roberto Mancini has done his best to handle a maverick whose self destructive tendencies were even beyond Jose Mourinho. Now he's told the world that Balotelli will have to be sold in the summer - which is all very well but, just like with Tevez, they may find very limited the number of clubs willing to spend £25million or more and £200,000 a week on guaranteed trouble.

With money no object, perhaps City will simply solve their problems by signing Robin Van Persie. He clearly has his issues with Arsenal at the moment and is doing his level best to avoid signing a new contract. (Keep an eye on the Van Persie to stay) market in Betfair's Specials this summer). But in the meantime he has given his heart and soul to the club on the pitch, and set a superb captain's example. Arsenal, once in danger of failing to qualify for next year's Champions League, are now 1.53 to do it with a Top Three Finish.

Certainly Balotelli's antics have exposed Mancini's lack of experience at man management. Contrast with how Sir Alex Ferguson dealt many years ago with Eric Cantona, and more recently has thinned Wayne Rooney's red mist. Rooney's penalty against QPR yesterday has moved him just four goals behind Van Persie in the chase for the golden boot, and with six fairly benign fixtures left it's not too late to back him at 5.2 in the Top Goalscorer market.

Ferguson, right back to January 1995 when Cantona jumped into the crowd for his infamous kung-fu kick at a fan, has always found the way to harness maverick talent to the team. This year the statistic that Rooney has not been booked all season in a Manchester United shirt is probably as significant as the number of goals he has scored.

Newcastle's 2-0 win at Swansea on Friday evening was the first time I'd seen Papiss Cisse play live, and what struck me was not just the quality of his finishing for both goals, but the way he is already immersed in Alan Pardew's team ethic. The tactics demanded that he and Demba Ba took turns at playing the lone front role, and when it wasn't their go they had to fill in on the left to stop full back Angel Rangel getting forward. Cisse did the job without a murmur, and before today's home game with Bolton were 8.4 for a Top Four Finish.

Pardew has certainly spent well the £35million he got for Andy Carroll, whose nightmare at Anfield continued in a 1-1 draw with what looked like Aston Villa's youth team. Amazingly Liverpool, on a desperate run that has seen them win in 90 minutes only three of their last 12 games, are 2.38 favourites to beat Everton in Saturday's FA Cup semi-final.


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