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Bayern Munich v Real Madrid, 19:45, Sky Sports 2

When the Champions League reaches the semi-final stage, does a side's progress to this point of the competition tell us anything about what's likely to happen this week?

Most of Real and Bayern's games have come against weaker sides so surely, for example, Real's outstanding form in the competition to date is no guide to how they'll fare against the Bavarian giants. Then again, 10 games is a decent body of evidence so it's possible to draw some conclusions about the team's strengths and weaknesses.

Match Odds

Having watched both teams several times this season, my feeling is Real Madrid have a slightly better chance of winning the game. They've won nine of 10 Champions League games and 27 of 33 league fixtures (84% win rate), and it matters little this game is away from home: Jose Mourinho's side have won four of five on the road in Europe and 13 of 16 in the league.

Bayern have a 100% home record in the tournament but have lost twice away (v Manchester City and Basel), and the fact they've lost home and away to Borussia Dortmund in the league is a further sign of their flaws. They're good enough to get a draw (3.6), but Real are favourites for me, so the price of 2.86 on the visitors is more appealing than the 2.72 on the hosts.

Overs / Unders

There are no clear under / overs goals patterns looking at the two teams' games in the competition so far: 7/10 Bayern games have had under 2.5 goals, with 7/10 Real Madrid games containing overs. Real's outstanding attacking firepower has obviously led to many of their league games featuring overs (25/33), while Bayern are more limited in that respect and had an excellent defensive record in the first-half of their domestic season, leading to a much lower overs count (17/31).

Over 2.5 goals is 1.89 and unders 2.1. This is a market I'd leave alone.

Both Teams to Score?

The stats say it's highly likely Real will score. They've found the net in all 10 Champions League games and 30 of 33 league games. 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market is therefore worth considering at 1.62 if you think Bayern will be good enough to breach the visitors' defence. The Germans have scored in all five Champions League home games this season, although their inability to find the net against Basel (away) in the last 16, Manchester City (away) in the group stages and home and away against Borussia Dortmund in the league is a concern.

Other Markets

Real Madrid have scored in both halves in seven of 10 games in the tournament so the price of 2.92 on them doing so in Munich is worth considering. Another market to have a look at is Real to win a half at 1.77. They've managed that in every game so far

The 'To Score' market - where you back individual players to find the net - is also worth a look. Mario Gomez (11 goals), Cristiano Ronaldo (eight) and Karim Benzema (seven) have all excelled in the competition, and are the three players most likely to find the net if, as expected, there are goals in the game. Of the three, Benzema offers the best value - he'll be around 3.4 to add to his tally. Gomez will be around 2.5, with Ronaldo nearer to the 2.0 mark.

Best Bet: Real Madrid to score in both halves @ 2.92.
Other Recommended Bets: Real Madrid to win @ 2.86; Real Madrid to win a half @ 1.77; Karim Benzema to score @ 3.4.

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