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What type of horse is suited to the race?

Although a range of different types of horses have triumphed in the race, there are undoubtedly a number of attributes to look for when trying to find a prospective Grand National winner. Solid, not necessarily exuberant, jumpers should be at the top of any list, with those horses deemed intelligent and agile enough to be able to sidestep any sudden obstacles particularly sought after. Tactical speed is also necessary as those liable to get left behind during the early stages often fail to get involved. Quirky performers can take to the demands of the race but more often than not they don't, so placing your faith in a genuine, thorough stayer gives you the best possible chance of a run for your money.


Is experience of the course vital?

No but it definitely helps. Last year's winner Ballabriggs had never previously raced over Aintree's chase track prior to his two-and-a-quarter-length defeat of Oscar Time, but eight of the 10 previous winners had seen the course before, with Red Marauder ('01 winner), Amberleigh House ('04), Hedgehunter ('05) and Mon Mome ('09) all having contested the National 12 months earlier. Form over the unique spruce obstacles is also a positive; Earth Summit, Amberleigh House, Clan Royal (also won Topham Chase over the fences), Silver Birch and Black Apalachi were all Becher Chase winners who either won or were runner-up in a Grand National, whilst '04 Fox Hunters' hero Forest Gunner finished fifth in the big one the following year. This season's Becher went to West End Rocker, while Always Waining has won the last two renewals of the Topham.


Does the amount of weight by a horse carried play a significant part?

While the success of Little Polvier in '89 kick-started a run of 15 consecutive winners carrying under 11-0, both Mon Mome and Ballabriggs have shouldered that specific weight to victory in the last three years, with Don't Push It lumping 5 lb more to win two years ago. With the higher-rated horses now being more favourably treated by the official handicapper than in years gone by, it's only a matter of time before a horse at the head of the weights triumphs, and Synchronised (11-10) and Ballabriggs (11-9) hold strong claims of doing just that on Saturday.


Which horses have already proved they have the class to triumph this weekend?

Since the void National of '93 the average Timeform rating achieved by the winner has been at least 154, and those horses to have already run to that figure or more at least once are Ballabriggs, Black Apalachi, Calgary Bay, Deep Purple, Junior, Mon Mome, Neptune Collonges, Planet of Sound, State of Play, Synchronised, Vic Venturi and Weird Al.

Those on the cusp (have run to 150+) are Alfa Beat, Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey (would have done so but for unseating two out at Cheltenham), In Compliance, Killyglen, Rare Bob, Seabass, Shakalakaboomboom, Sunnyhillboy and The Midnight Club.

That said, instantly striking out those horses that don't reside within those two lists would be folly as Ballabriggs ran to a figure some 15 lb better than anything he'd previously registered when scoring a year ago.


Should I back more than one? Should I bet to place? How do favourites fare?

With the sheer unpredictability of the National, hedging your bets is always a good idea. Of the 26 outright/joint/co favourites since Gold Cup winning-market leader Master Oats finished fifth in '95, five have triumphed and a further five have finished in the frame so taking one or two of those at the forefront of the betting will usually provide you with something to cheer as they approach the final throws. That said, the big-priced successes of Mon Mome, Silver Birch and Red Marauder since the turn of the century show it's also worthy chancing any outsider that takes your fancy. It is the National after all.

As well as backing your selection to win, Betfair also offer the opportunity for you to back your horse to place, i.e. to finish in the first four places. There are also special markets open whereby you can bet on predicting the "Longest Winning SP" and the longest "Winning Distance (Odds)" of the three-day meeting, as well as who will be crowned "Top Jockey" and "Top Trainer" from the start of the action on Thursday to close of play on Saturday.


When should I admit defeat?

Not until the first horse has passed the post, just ask Dave ****, rider of winner E.S.B. in the famous Devon Loch saga of 1956.

Unlike those betting with high-street bookmakers, punters using Betfair have the opportunity to back and lay horses during the race and there are a number of horses in the line-up who have previous for overcoming significant in-running highs.

The most notable of these is probably Synchronised, whose on-and-off-the-bridle running style saw him defy in-play peaks of 23.0 (began race at a Betfair Starting Price of 9.49) in the Lexus Chase and 25.0 (BSP 10.35) in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on his last two starts. Stablemate Sunnyhillboy also overcame huge odds of 160.0 (BSP 9.53) when winning the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last time, as did Deep Purple, Tatenen, According To Pete and Swing Bill when winning respective races during this season.

Of the Irish representatives, despite being sent off an under-3.0 favourite for both races, Seabass touched in-running summits of 11.0 and 13.0 when scoring at Punchestown in December and Naas in February, while Alfa Beat shrugged off big in-play drifts when winning both of his Kerry Nationals and Organisedconfusion hit 75.0 (BSP 27.66) when landing the 2011 Irish National.

Finally it's worth pointing out that Always Waining touched 25.0 (BSP 8.39) when scooping the Topham of 2010 and 44.0 (BSP 32.0) when following up 12 months later, and Mon Mome, who'd started at a BSP of 143.59, won the 2009 Grand National despite being matched at the ceiling price of 1000.0 during the race.


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