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your man let me down LE
(Straight Bet) Levi Casboult [CAR] @ 15.00 Sydney vs Carlton - First Goal Scorer Each Way 1/4 1-2-3 $20.00 $280.00 Bet number: 342015554 Win/Place: No Price to Win: $15.00 Stake Win: $20.00 Payout Win: - Status: Alive - - Price to Place: - Stake Place: - Payout Place: - |
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Well done Lloydy.
Lets continues his tradition of never admitting he's wrong ![]() |
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Max allowed on was $850 @ 7
$250 was mine My mate wanted $1000 on so he got 600 on $7 and $400 middle tote I declared it to him with Ginger Bliss He popped $2k on Ginger at 1.60 was a 1.01 shot |
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dam
$200 @ 3s for safety bet |
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I did warn you quinny is not as good as he was and you guys rate suave stuey lombo???
Considering the way the draw panned out and the fact that the stablemate was helping Suave Stuey lombo and the bloke on Glengowan as well Stuey's not much chop on that run and the stablemate Mach Beauty showed the weak streak that it has at the top level last week when driven to lead. Give David Hercules the same run as sSuave Stuey got tonight and it bolts in. Quinny a game run under the circumstances, mind you the rest of the field clearly wasn't much good. The times back it up as well Mile Rate: 1:54:7 Lead Time: 36.5 First Quarter: 31.3, Second Quarter: 28.4, Third Quarter: 27.5, Fourth Quarter: 28.6 very easy first half 59.7, if it was any good it should bolted in with that run, final half 56.1 final quarter 28.6. |
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Let's I often have praised you when other haven't (in regards racing mind you) but
in regards your analysis of that race you are fair dinklum kidding Quinny is as good as ever if not currently the toughest he has ever been he gave Suave thirty metres start at the 800 and they came home in 56.1 in what i feel was the greatest harness race for many a day Congrats to Suave Stuey too - no one compares him to Quinny but with that map he was good enough to win Harness Racing was the winner IMO |
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good on ya Craig excellent summation
I too thought it was about as good as Quinny has gone let alone any horse at AP running those unbelievable times. i reckon beautide or christen me would have struggled to do that also, massive run. |
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Interesting what you say Craig as I said to myself after the race that was of the best races in years. Great battle, thought McMullen drove Quinn very well but the map prevailed
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Hung around track is wat cost him
Went Huge |
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You blokes are dreaming, the leader got a 59.7 first half, any horse worth its salt in that class wins that race easily with that run. Quinny slugged over My Hard Copy three starts back which is handy at best, (My Hard Copy then sat one one on david hercules after david hercules did a heap of work and couldn't even run a place at its next start that's scintillating form around My Hard Copy isn't it). Go back and watch quinny's final inter heats win in Perth and you will see the difference, the same goes for its inters final win in Sydney, quinny staggered over crombie (going like a busted arse) and copagrin (lovely honest horse that tries hard but is a rung below fast class level) not so long ago in the pinjarra cup in a full second slower mile rate than Ima rocket star did a year earlier, just goes to show what we have suspected for a very long time that your horses and their exaggerated times on the big tracks aren't much chop. David Hercules rates with the same run as stuey at least a second faster mile rate if not considerably more.
The world perfect run last week and just gets over mach beauty, quinny has always been able to work a bit against the lesser horses if not used out of the gate and while it was a game run it was certainly nothing special while the last quarter was very average after the leader got it very soft in the middle stages. They run faster than that over a similar trip at GP which is a slower track and less spacious than Albion Park. Please by all means, keep thinking how good its going and I'll happily take your money again, love the horse and not denigrating it by any means but its nowhere near the horse it was as it has had injuries, is getting older and naturally has accumulated wear and tear. It was obvious from the draw the fact that stuey was likely to end up in front and the significant fact that Hall jnr didn't bother making the trip that it was a massive risk tonight, especially when you knew stuey wasn't even remotely interested in its previous start and you can sadly always rely on harness drivers to rort when the opportunity presents itself, no matter what the horse. |
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glad you guys agree (except Lets)
just watched again - very special race Quinny was actually 30 metres behind Suave Stuey at the 1200 (not the 800) and then they ran the second quarter in 28.4 with Quinny off the track as Chris Barsby pointed out you are hard to please Lets Elope Lets i don't want to get into a debate but G Hall did say he was not yet at his best in WA and still his runs there were very good, in the Pinjarra Cup he did make a 1200 metre run which early in his prep was a huge ask and in his races v both My hard Copy and David Hercules he was required to run very fast last halves both times i would agree the jury was possibly out a little on those runs but his runs in QLD particularly tonights run has silenced most doubters i think |
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The pinjarra cup run mate was gallant and it was against out of form horses and mutants, copagrin nearly won the race, mate please I backed copagrin a place at 8 bucks fixed it was ridiculous overs for the run it was going to get in transit but it nearly won the bloody thing. Crombie had every favour under the sun, got the world perfect run never went around a horse and still couldn't win, its going terrible and quinny was as flat as a tack to just slug over those two. How much more evidence do you guys need.
Those sort of horses wouldn't get anywhere near him, let alone extend him in the past when quinny was at his peak a couple of years ago. It wasn't as if he was off the track for an extended period tonight after getting a very easy run early not having been asked to do anything at the start. Apart from the winner and devil dodger ( and its not much chop these days either) the rest are walking machines in that class). No one least of all me is arguing that he's not a champion and like I said with the right run and everything going right he can still be competitive against the supposedly better class horses as he indicated last week but you are seriously deluding yourself if you consider him to be anywhere near the same horse he was but his class and courage still carries him a long way against these lesser horses. What's more Craig you're denying yourself a very good betting opportunity I've been paid very nicely out of him at two of his recent runs and I hardly got involved last week other a very small lay of mach beauty purely out of principle because it was going to hold the front and a vry token bet on suave stuey not expecting it to be totally uninterested. I got heavily involved when David Hercles beat it first up and went strong again tonight backing suave stuey and laying quinny. It's just as important from a form and punting viewpoint to recognise when a boom horse or in quinny's case a champion is on the slow decline as it is to recognise when a top liner is emerging. Or alternatively when a horse gets a massive boom that is entirely unwarranted those are the sort of opportunities you dream about and they don't occur every day. |
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Hope you also listened to those tipping you Chilli Palmer as well, you don't get opportunities like that every day either!
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I had zero interest in the race I only watched one race from AP tonight and it was quinny's race and sadly the inclinations and behaviour of the drivers didn't let me down and people in the industry many of whom I like and get along well with wonder why our great sport struggles.
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I guess if you don't watch a lot of these races you will refrain from comment about the horses within them in the future then. A good result for all I would think
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pleaseeeeee let them take SSL to WA to thump those dingos in the west
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Seriously doubt it would get around GP unless it drew the pegs, guarantee you one thing no way in hell it thumps David Hercules who has actually beaten horses of merit during its career, Suave Stuey has beaten zip and please don't give me excel stride as an example, exceptional young horse that has yet to make the transition against top open class horses.
Tell me gentlemen if Perth racing is so poor how do you explain seel n print??? Seel n Print couldn't get warm at GP in its last season there against some pretty average horses at times and comes to Menangle on the bigger track which helps it no doubt and it jumps out of the ground and finishes second in an inters final and yes you could argue that those factors and maybe being suited to McCarthy's training style etc, etc influenced it's form but the fact remains it couldn't get warm at GP in its last season there against some average horses and then jumps out of the ground when it goes over there and just continues to improve and improve which was no surprise to any of us as it had ability and given how over rated your racing is. Case in point Mystical Magical mach nowhere near our best horse but a nice horse when right and he was in reasonably good form when he went over there for the inters he ran 1.52.2 on his ear there at minor meeting there as a workout for him in a race he couldn't lose and was never out of second gear. The point is fast times on big fast track when in your comfort zone are one thing, being able to reproduce those efforts when under pressure against quality opposition is an entirely different kettle of fish as it is a different level of pressure again. No argument from me that at the moment our fast class ranks are lacking in depth compared to past years but David Hercules as long as he can keep him sound is the real deal. In saying that suave stuey and mach beauty have exposed the relative weakness of your racing as well. |
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i love david hercules, but to think SSL wouldn't do well over there is getting ridiculous
Tritton certainly has some training methods |
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I just think having the done the majority of its racing on big tracks that it would struggle to get around GP that's all uncle, it certainly not top class as was basically gifted the front last night by the stablemate and should have won easily with the first half it got.
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i think it's time Lets Elope to ditch the gallops and come over to the trots full time
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Just watched your chilli palmer win, it only did what you would expect it to do if it's any good as had the race run to suit with that lunatic Pannella driving mach beauty like it was popular alm, which it certainly isn't and it got a lovely cart into the race to boot. If chilli hadn't won like that with that sort of run and having everything pan out perfectly for it you would be disappointed but it went as you would expect it to go with that sort of run.
Still wanted to hop a bit when first pulled wide but fortunately it wasn't out there for as long on a bend, majestic mach under the circumstances wasn't a bad run. I notice stewards queried the run of Mach Beauty according to the results abbreviations, any chance of querying the drive and why she drove it like was Pure Steel and Popular Alm wrapped into one, cant be bothered reading the actual stewards report it would be the usual drivel anyway. Everytime I see Pannella when she actually has to make a decision she continually proves that she's tactically bereft. She could have waited until they settled and then zipped to the breeze and had a far easier run from there if she wanted to go forward aggressively, makes a difference doesn't it when they don't just hand up to her unlike what occurs regularly at Menangle. |
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If all of these eastern staters are no good (you refuse to give any of them credit), it is amazing that WA have had just one Grand Circuit horse in a decade. Just amazing. Must be bad luck I guess
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Lets,
Panella is a good example of driving today - just steer 'em and let 'em loose, and the bigger the track the better. Thinking? Now that's another matter - she gets lost in a field |
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I didn't say none of them are any good Beautide could potentially be the best horse we've seen here. Also rans like mach beauty (when it leads against supposedly good horses) and suave stuey aren't up to the very top class and have consistently proven that they're not up to that level. Washakie was from WA mate an ex kiwi horse originally trained by an average trainer who intially couldnt get it to pace properly and then by the Halls where it became a very good horse and then because there were more races for it over there it went to McCarthy's you seem to have conveniently forgotten him. He was always about the place and with an ounce of luck could have won a really big one in the East and he did win a grand circuit even in the WA Pacing cup beating quinny in the process along with I think off the top of my head five maybe four truer's.
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You would have seen another one in I'm Victorious as well but hey Panella who is somehow still driving ensured that wouldn't happen, penalty what penalty, yet the connections of I'm victorious have suffered the greatest penalty of all having their emerging star cut down just as he was going into the prime stage of his career. Oh well we can still see the tactically bereft Panella drive when she should have been sitting on the sidelines for a year, then she might have learned that there are consequences to reckless and inherently dangerous actions.
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I also think Keyang Steamer is potentially a very good horse whether he comes back the same horse after obviously suffering an injury will be very interesting.
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Cant help but bring some nostalgia into this thread. Many choices but will promote the following:
Still brings a big smile just seeing a totally relaxed champion,,beautiful relaxed arched neck ...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCGZ7rCCSfE ![]() ![]() |
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Anyone still want to tell me how good mach beauty and suave stuey lombo are?
Avonova was entitled to win with the run it had as well, like I said they're not much chop and another good game effort from quinny. Well done to the halls and it just goes to show what we have lways thought that a significant percentage of those fast times at Menangle don't mean a lot |
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yes Avonnova had every chance to win but Avonnova like just about every other horse in the land was out of it's comfort zone going a 26.8 quarter and it has run the race of it's life
What then of Quinn three wide without cover making ground in that quarter and still going on to win? Freak, Machine you name it - in the top few horses to racing in Australia in my lifetime IMO What a great three weeks for Harness Racing in Australia - pity more people aren't into it but you would think those races would help keep the interest of any recent converts |
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Craig yes it was good run but no more than what you would expect from a genuine top class horse even if he's logically not the same superstar he once was.
Realistically he had one horse to beat if driven sensibly by jnr and that was the second horse and they finished 1-2 mach beauty was no hope after last week and neither was suave stuey that left exactly nothing in the race you throw keyang cullen (in its current form) or one of the good kiwi's into the race or even david hercules and if they sit in the spot as avonova or lead or one one or even one two then quinny doesn't win condagen was only just under 5m away from him at the finish, hardly a ringing endorsement times were good but its a big track so you would expect quinny to run good times. Good game performance but fortunate there wasn't much for him to beat as that wasn't much left on the line. You wouldn't mention suave stuey in the same breath as him yet he beat quinny last week when the breaks didn't quite go quinny's way, in previous seasons that wouldn't have mattered but he also absolutely staggered over the line against My Hard Copy before he left WA and My Hard Copy has done nothing since and prior to that was beaten by the first top class horse he encountered all prep in David Hercules and before that staggered over crombie (who's going like a busted you know what)who never went around a horse and copagrin in the Pinjarra Cup. |
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He'll be 10 in a few weeks, i think that's your answer
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Lets Elope:
"mach beauty was no hope after last week" Watch the replay : 200 metre mark .....Sure many were thinking "this aint going to script?" The only hope given to Quinn in my thoughts was that 26.5 back straight.....( to be more precise...28.9 to 26.5 splits,,,,now thats low flying with sparks) surely March has to tire-- He did 1 length behind Quinny ....point .2 seconds outside Feelgoods record. Lets elope ...with respect ..he was every hope. Again watch replay especially 200 m mark GREAT RACE!! |
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Always does it Henry not much good running sectionals if you can't find the line in the last 200m when it matters and when it leads against supposedly good horses it just doesn't find the line ( I was never worried I knew avonova was going to run past it without any worries given the run it had and was always going to get) and hasn't at its last three start now when it has led. Time to reassess their tactics when racing against this level, that's if Panella is capable of driving a tactical race which I severely doubt. When it draws to lead or even when it draws wider lead initially and then choose who you hand up to and sit behind the leader, I bet you anything you like providing they haven't totally stuffed the horse this prep that it find the line a lot better as was evident in its heats win and the inters final performance
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The question is Henry did Mach Beauty win, no it didn't, was I ever worried, never.
Once it led again it couldn't win not with Avonova on its back as it was always going to get the saloon passage. Like I said I didn't like the race as the only value was Avonova who I wasn't convinced could sit and sprint effectively enough to win but knew would always get past Mach Beauty (for all of the previously mentioned reasons)so no danger whatsoever in laying it particularly after the gutbuster the previous week. Secondly Stuey was never going to get into the race and even if it did it was going to have to work too hard to hold either Quinny or Avonova so no danger in laying it either. Quinny got to 1.9 I think on betfair before firming up slightly think to start 1.83 so no real point in laying in it in a race when there were two winning chances. So I simply layed Stuey and Mach Beauty to cover my Avonova bet and to achieve a small cop just for an interest, if Avonova wins though it's not a bad result but I prefer to risk larger amounts when I think I've got something in my favour and Quinny was always going to be up against it last week whereas in contrast Stuey was always likely to get the favours and he exposed last week that he wasn't really up to the class (without everything possibly going his way and the dangers having poor runs)either as should have won comfortably with that run. That's my opinion and you or others can choose to agree or disagree or dismiss it as irrelevant for all I care. I've read and evaluated all three races correctly and have finished well in front on them as a result and for me reading them correctly and profiting by that is ultimately that's all that matters. The very definition of mindless stupidity and pigheadedness in this case is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result and until those associated with Mach Beauty realise this they're going to get more or less the same result if not worse whenever it comes up against a class horse. |
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Lets Elope:
No argument cause I thought Quinn would win (I actually thought easily...but it didnt) The question was not however : "The question is Henry did Mach Beauty win," To be fair the question was really around your statement: ""mach beauty was no hope " And as I pointed out at 200m mark it was definitely not "no" hope. "not much good running sectionals if you can't find the line in the last 200m" One length behind winner in sensational time - I think "cant find the line" is a bit tough on it....different if it knocked up 3-5 lengths off winner. I am giving it credit for its run. In relation to your statement "I've read and evaluated all three races correctly and have finished well in front on them as a result and for me reading them correctly and profiting by that is ultimately that's all that matters." WD You also mention Quinny $1.90 betfair.......what a gift.....Why not back it ?? I assume you feared Avonova too much. |
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No Henry I just thought Avonova was the only value in the race and I had looked at his last six or seven runs and had never seen it sit and sprint, while it was logical to assume given the run it had and that it was always going to get that it would beat home Mach Beauty and the fact that last weeks run had to have taken something out of Mach Beauty.
I certainly didn't fear Avonova I just thought given I had already layed Mach Beauty and Stuey for little to no risk that I was happy to let Quinny go around at that price and if it was good enough to beat Avonova so be it, by doing what I did I had given myself a free bet on Avonova for a result and if anything else won I still made a very small profit. Like I said previously I thought there were two winning chances one was 7 or 8 bucks (not quite sure what it ended up on the various totes) I took 7.5 fixed and the other was 1.90 at best I just made it that if the best horse won it wasn't going to hurt me and that I would still have a result if the horse with ability that was going to get the best run won that it was still going to be a result, that's how I looked at the race, a race which I didn't find particularly attractive from a betting viewpoint. |
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Rightly or wrongly Henry I don't rate Mach Beauty and won't until they start driving it tactically, so no I was never concerned at any stage, Quinny got up there quickly enough and down the back straight that either he or Avonova were always going to wear it down.
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I too am not a fan of either Mach or Stuey or Avonova for that matter...(dosnt mean they are not good performers)
I was impressed with how Mach stuck on so well after having the second most difficult run .....26.5 (in the backstraight)...that really really hurts and hurts even more in the final 100m....deserved to tippy toe to the line ..which it didnt! |
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Funnily enough the self appointed geniuses still haven't explained seel n print Menangle form (seeing Perth horses are no good)when looking back through this thread. I wouldn't hold hold my breath either waiting for an explanation.
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Soho Lennon, another handy provincial type in Victoria who is instantly a complete star in WA. The horses over there are so poor its not funny
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