WillGreenwood

I'm baffled by the odds on Saturday's Six Nations opener between Scotland and England. The hosts are favourites with everybody except bettors and I won't be putting my money anywhere near the 1.78 on Stuart Lancaster's young team. This is Scotland's chance to record a famous victory.

England go up to Murrayfield with an untested team, which has been selected by three respected but, at this level at least, inexperienced coaches. They haven't won north of the border since 2004 and the Scots will be determined to avenge the narrow defeat that dumped them out of the World Cup. New Zealand was a nadir for English rugby and, while I like what Stuart Lancaster has said and done so far, it can't be forgotten that the Red Rose are trying to rebuild after a demoralising autumn.

Don't think I'm down on this England side, because I'm not. Quite the opposite: this is the team that I believe can carry English rugby into a new era and compete with the best at the next World Cup. I'm intrigued by the fly-half and midfield selections. Charlie Hodgson is the best passer in English rugby, expert at drawing those around him into the game. At 31, he might wonder how many more chances he will get but outside him are two men at the beginning of their international careers. Owen Farrell is talented, tough and fearless, while Bradley Barritt lacks pace but adds steel and won't be daunted by the occasion. That will count for a lot.

Chris Robshaw may have only won one cap but he's a natural leader and he won't be cowed by a hostile crowd. I loved playing at Murrayfield, having never lost there, but it is a cauldron. Robshaw will have his team-mates up for this, he was, along with Tom Wood, my early pick for the captaincy and I see nothing wrong with trying out both players in the role in this tournament.

I'm delighted for Phil Dowson. His first cap should have come a couple of years ago but there is certainly a warm glow about the 31-year-old's selection. If the RFU want England players who can perform on the pitch and conduct themselves sensibly, then the Saints number eight is ideal. He's been unlucky to miss out in the past but he's taken every disappointment on the chin and let his rugby do the talking. Good luck to him.

Scotland need to score more tries and stop conceding late points. Max Evans beat more defenders than any other player in last year's tournament and he will be a big threat. If new captain Ross Ford is to lead by example he needs to improve his throwing; he misplaced ten line-outs in the Six Nations 2011 and, if he's wayward on Saturday, Tom Palmer will reap the benefits. Overall, I like the new Scotland and believe Andy Robinson's men will start their campaign with a win. At the odds available, they must be backed.

Recommended Bet
3pts Back Scotland to win by under 12.5 points @ 3.25

For more Six Nations betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/rugby-union/six-nations-betting/

Whether or not I wanted to back Italy to beat France last year is a bone of contention between the Betfair editors and I. I say I did and they told me I was mad. They say it was the other way around. Who are you going to believe: the man who's been there and done it or the men who spend their time bleating on the sidelines?

We certainly agree that there will be no repeat upset in Paris this weekend. Bettors agree, which is why France are 1.05 and Italy 27.0. There's no value there so we will have to look at the winning margin markets on Betfair.

Following the at times shambolic Marc Lievremont era, France should be far more consistent under Philipe Saint-Andre. That makes them more bettor-friendly. I expect them to run in an avalanche of points on Saturday that will give them momentum to take into their home match against Ireland next week. Two home wins could be the foundations of a tenth French Grand Slam.

Spare a thought for new Italy coach Jacques Brunel. The Azzurri will be as obdurate under him as they were under Nick Mallet but the Frenchman will not relish a meeting with his home nation in his first match in charge. Expect Italy to try to keep it tight up front but French class to prevail by around 20 points, setting down a marker for a winning campaign.

Recommended Bet
3pts Back France to win by over 12.5 points at 1.42

For more Six Nations betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/rugby-union/six-nations-betting/

Wow. What a squad.

Change is inevitable following a World Cup but I applaud Stuart Lancaster's bold selections for his England Six Nations squad. All young English players should be very excited because the RFU is signalling that they will give youth its chance. The national team manager has a responsibility to give emerging players hope and on that count Lancaster gets top marks. This is a team for the future, which partly explains why England's Six Nations odds have drifted to 4.8, but that's also due to injuries to key men. Manu Tuilagi will bring genuine bite into the attack and Toby Flood will add experience when they return to fitness .

Talk of new caps gets me reminiscing about my own call-up. Clive Woodward was a notorious insomniac but when the phone rang at six o'clock one autumn morning in 1997, I was busy sleeping off a bit of a bender. Whoever wanted me could wait. I eventually learned of my selection later that day and I felt then that I'd crossed a threshold into a new stage of my career. I was nervous, excited, my mum phoned and my club team-mates teased me on the training ground. It's a special moment to savour and seize.

Owen Farrell deserves his call-up because he's been terrific for Saracens this season. I expect him to start at 12 at Murrayfield on February 4. Charlie Hodgson should be at fly-half but, in the absence of Flood, Farrell will take on kicking duties. Even with several thousand screaming Scots trying to put him off, he can handle the pressure. But Scotland will relish playing against this young England side at home. I'm not saying England will lose but odds of 2.54 on a Scottish win are worth taking because I expect them to come in - possibly to evens - between now and kick-off. It's a chance to lock in some profit before the match begins.

There's probably no way back for the older English players who have been omitted. Mike Tindall and Nick Easter have achieved enormous things with England. Of those who missed out, Easter is the most unlucky. Is he a better number eight than Phil Dowson? Yes, but the Saints man is three years younger and England are thinking about 2015.

The long/short term distinction is actually something of a straw man. England want to succeed when they host the World Cup but earning pool points that are up for grabs now - so that they avoid the likes of New Zealand and Australia in the early stage - is part of that. For every team, the 2012 Six Nations represents a fresh start and it's wrong to think that a modern, international rugby team can sacrifice short term results and focus entirely on the future.

For the England captaincy, I anticipate a straight fight between Chris Robshaw and Tom Wood. Both men encapsulate the integrity that the RFU are keen for England to develop. As for Lancaster's chances of getting the manager's job permanently, a month ago I would have said he had very little chance. Now I'm not so sure. He will be judged by results but I'm loving what I've seen so far.

For more rugby betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/

Was Jonny Wilkinson England's greatest fly-half? He was certainly the finest that I've ever seen. He didn't so much redefine the role of the ten as expand it: the job is to kick consistently, from hands and tee, and help the attack move with incision, but Jonny added sublime defence, making 25 tackles per match as well as slotting points from all angles, at crucial moments. He was brilliant at controlling the game.

In a good rugby team you need trust, as a back you must have absolute faith in the men to your right and your left. For his skill, bravery and perfect communication, Jonny, who stood to my right in England's World Cup-winning backline, was the most trustworthy team-mate I could have hoped for. It was a privilege to play in the same side as him.

Jonny took preparation to another level, he was an outstanding professional and my abiding memory of him is at Pennyhill Park. As the rest of the England team, myself included, headed for a hot bath after an arduous workout, Jonny would stay out to practice his kicking. His dedication was one of the key factors in our transformation from a half decent pub team into world beaters.

Everybody talks about the 2003 World Cup, and rightly so, but in the build-up we enjoyed a momentous run of away victories - in Dublin, Wellington and Melbourne - that compare with any of England's achievements over my lifetime. Jonny played a huge part in those results, especially in windy Wellington. Allow me to explain some of the difficulties facing a kicker: 25 yards from the posts the wind blows one way, 35 yards away it breaks two ways and at 45 yards it manages to blow in three directions. To kick a rugby ball hard, high and accurately enough to prevail in those conditions - in a stadium full of Kiwis who are baying for you to fail - is unimaginably difficult. That day in Wellington, and throughout his England career, Jonny Wilkinson consistently achieved that.

The game has changed enormously over the course of Jonny's career, demands on and opportunities open to players are varied. But I wouldn't expect to see him on Strictly Come Dancing. Publicity and plaudits aren't his thing. That isn't to say he's always a quiet man off the pitch: the public only saw the determined perfectionist but we saw the laughing, relaxed Jonny too. In the end, all he really wanted was to be able to hold his head up high in England team meetings, which is staggering when you think how good he was.

For more exclusive Will Greenwood content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/willgreenwood/

Moment: Man City finally win a trophy. There with my seven-year-old lad when Ya Ya slots home to beat Stoke. Doing the Poznan rocked the joint.

Performance: Rory McIlroy at US Open! Learnt his Masters lesson thanks to Michael Vaughan (Ambassdors golf day in joke wethinks - Ed) and slammed it home.

Hero: Two Fellas who epitomise why we love sport. Darren Clarke at Open, Stephen Donald at World Cup.

Villain: Carlos. Thrown my Tevez pyjamas away. Although England performances rugby wise on the pitch never got me out of my seat at world cup. Gutting.

Bet for 2012: Usain Bolt to go sub 9.5 seconds at London Olympics.

For more exclusive Will Greenwood content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/willgreenwood/

The RFU's appointment of a three man interim England coaching team is a sensible move. Some observers will argue that the team are wasting six months but I think the 2012 Six Nations will give whoever takes over, probably in March, an excellent opportunity to assess the players in a big tournament.

Stuart Lancaster, who will be supported by Graham Rowntree and Andy Farrell, is a sound choice as stand-in head coach but he will be under no illusions about getting the job on a full-time basis. England are 4.1 to win the Six Nations and, even if they pull off a shock Grand Slam, I can't see Lancaster getting the nod. Mind you, it would throw up a fascinating conundrum for the RFU and bring some much-needed cheer to fans.

I'm pleased to see Rowntree - a fine servant for the Red Rose on and off the field - involved but I'm especially delighted for Farrell. There will be a few raised eyebrows at an ex-League man taking such a prominent role but he's done well at Saracens and, as a back, I always like to see somebody who believes in playing good football in the mix. I've been asked if I think this makes the selection of Owen Farrell more likely. As the son of an ex-England player and coach, I can vouch that a bit of nepotism does a player no harm. But if Owen carries on playing as he has been he will be in that squad when it's announced in January on pure merit.

Like many people, my faith in the RFU has been shaken in the last few months but I trust them to make the right appointments. The three leading candidates for the permanent England manager's role - Jim Mallinder, Nick Mallet and John Kirwan - would all be excellent appointments. I'm not privy to everything that goes on at Twickenham but I hear enough around the corridors to know that next week's appointment of an RFU CEO is set to be exciting. Expect a big name and expect England to start moving in the right direction sooner rather than later.

For more rugby betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/

Nothing surprises me at the moment with English rugby, so I wasn't taken aback when Johnno announced his resignation. I would have loved him to stay, but if he believes that leaving was the right thing to do then I respect his judgement, as I always have done.

Looking at his replacement, I am a massive fan of Jim Mallinder and he would be my number one choice.

If Northampton fight to keep him - as I imagine they would - then I would go for an interim manager for the next couple of months while that is being negotiated. And the standout candidate for that would be Brendan Venter at Saracens. He could take the helm for what is an important period coming up, what with the Elite Performance Squad being announced in January.

There is now no chief executive, no elite performance director, and no manager at the RFU and a host of reviews. But I'm a glass half-full kind of person, so I believe that with a top CEO going in England will be well set for 2012.

I'm excited about the calibre of candidates applying for the CEO role. I can't go into detail, but I recently heard the name of someone who didn't even make the top five and that was very encouraging. There is every chance we will have the head of a FTSE 100 company in charge.

The Nigel Boardman review (expected to call for radical overhaul, including the appointment of an independent chairman) will genuinely get the 'turkeys voting for Christmas' in my mind. There will be a much clearer line of control in the leadership at the RFU.

On Martin Johnson's highs and lows

Highs: Winning away in Australia, Cardiff and Dublin were cracking performances. And the victory over the Wallabies in November had me jumping out of my seat; one of those great sporting moments.

Lows: The 15-15 draw with Scotland was a poor performance. Getting absolutely tonked for the first 25 minutes by Ireland, in the Grand Slam decider, stands out. Obviously the World Cup was a low. But I think not getting closer to New Zealand and South Africa last November, after smashing Australia, was a real disappointment for Johnno.

The Heineken Cup is an extremely difficult tournament to win which is why players and punters love it. Europe's premier rugby competition is the biggest stage outside the international game and offers teams the chance to test themselves against the best.

I learned a hard lesson when I played in the final for Leicester against Brive in 1997. That Tigers side also featured Dean Richards, Martin Johnson and Austin Healy and, having beaten Toulouse in the semi, we ran out at Cardiff Arms Park full of momentum and confidence. But we got mauled by a fierce French side, I still have the footprint of Grzegorz Kacala, their monster number eight, printed on my chest. Not a good day but a great occasion and a formative experience.

I've said before that teams that take the big prizes often have a few failures behind them and you might bear that in mind when deciding who to back this year. For that reason, some bettors will fancy Saracens at 12.0 but I'm not convinced. They will benefit from having Treviso in their Pool but Biarritz and the Ospreys could prevent them from reaching the next round.

I'm afraid I don't think we'll get a first English winner for five seasons this year. The Betfair market fancies Leinster for what would be the third time in four seasons but I think they will struggle without Brian O'Driscoll. The Irishman is one of the all time great centres and his absence is a huge blow both to his club's hopes of retaining the Heineken and his country's Six Nations hopes.

Welsh rugby is in fine fettle at present and the likes of Sam Warburton, Gethin Jenkins and Jamie Roberts will carry their World Cup form into Cardiff Blues' campaign. Rhys Priestland and Jonathan Davies will do likewise for the Scarlets, who have a very useful backline, while the Ospreys have made decent signings. But it's a long time since a Welsh side has made it beyond the quarter-finals and that's why you get such long odds on them.

So I'm afraid I'm looking across La Manche for a winner. Toulouse remain behemoths of the European game, especially at fortress Ernest Wallon, and I can see why punters rate them neck and neck with Leinster. But speaking of necks, I'm going to stick mine out and back Clermont to triumph for the first time in their history.

Like all French teams, Vern Cotter's men are capable of shooting themselves in the foot but they made great acquisitions in the summer. Sitiveni Sivivatu, Benoit Cabello, Lee Byrne and many more bolster an already formidable squad which is lead by Aurelien Rougierre, the centre who put in a superb World Cup final performance against New Zealand.

You'll notice that I'm going against the Vulcans at Ulster this week - "within the sound of their own church bells," and all that - but I believe they will be almost unbeatable at home. That's why Clermont are my Heineken Cup 2011 picks.

Recommended Bet
Back Clermont @ 11.5 to win the Heineken Cup

For more rugby betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/

I backed New Zealand to win the World Cup at the outset and you won't be surprised to hear that I'm sticking with them in the final. I liked Australia following their Tri-Nations victory and thought that if anyone could upset the All Blacks it would be the Wallabies. But my word, Robbie Deans' men were humbled at Eden Park last Sunday. Those boys took one hell of a beating.

It was one of the great occasions and a great privilege to be there. New Zealand supporters have waited a long, hard 24 years since their team last won rugby's biggest prize. On Sunday night hope and expectation swarmed around Eden Park, turning it into a cathedral of passion and intensity and I was delighted that Graham Henry's men gave a worthy performance. Australia are one of the best sides at absorbing pressure but they didn't stand a chance against this ferocious All Blacks attack. Truly, it was one of the finest displays in Rugby World Cup history.

The odds of 9.2 on the French might look long for a two horse race but I believe the market is correct. We're going to see a comprehensive All Blacks performance, they won't want a tight game because they know that the French kicking has been reliable in the knock-out stages. The other area where Marc Lievremont's men are strong is the line-out. I keep banging on about this and it keeps being borne out, against England and Wales: in the second row and in the back row, France have excellent jumpers who are capable of winning ball against anyone. Expect Morgan Parra and Dimitri Yachvili to look for the touchline at every opportunity.

Plenty of people have mocked France and said that they're lucky to be in the final. Agreed, but the 18 other teams who have departed these shores would give anything to be where the French are. I know England certainly would.

A month ago I backed New Zealand to beat France in the Pool match, which they did, and observed that it would be ironic if Les Bleus were to meet the hosts in the final and reverse that outcome. That view was underpinned by the lingering suspicion that the French might have one great performance in them. I'm afraid I'm not having it this time.

New Zealand will come flying out of the traps so back an early score. They will take the game to a level where the French cannot compete. No disrespect to the great number ten but New Zealand didn't miss Dan Carter against Australia. Like all great teams they have absorbed change and they have a new hero: his name is Israel Dagg, he's my tip to be the next world rugby rock star and at 4.3 my bet to top World Cup try scorer. Dagg can run in a couple on Sunday and eclipse Vincent Clerc who currently has one more than him.

New Zealand will have the whole nation behind them. Richie McCaw may be struggling with an injury but he won't feel a jolt of pain for the entire 80 minutes because he knows what this match means to his countrymen. I've been there, I know what it's like to walk out on to this sport's biggest stage with so much hope on your shoulders. You might not think about it when you're competing but you feel it coursing through you. You want to deliver and New Zealand will by around 18 points.

Recommended Bets
3pts Back New Zealand to win by over 12.5 points @ 1.57
1pt Back 11-20 minutes @ 2.88 in the First Try odds market
3pts Back 31-40 points @ 3.35 in the Total Game Score market
3pts Back the 1st Half @ 2.34 in the Highest Scoring Half market
1pt Back Israel Dagg @ 4.3 to be World Cup Top Try Scorer

For more rugby betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/

Australia v Wales, Friday 08:30 (ITV1)

Will Wales rally themselves after last week's agonising defeat to France? I believe they will but they have my sympathy because I thought Alain Rolland was completely wrong to send off Sam Warburton. The opening 20 minutes of a World Cup semi-final is an intense time with players making big hits and hard tackles but I didn't think Warburton got carried away. There was nothing malicious about his tackle on Vincent Clerc and Rolland's snap decision killed a huge game.

Wales should be very proud of what they have achieved over the last six weeks. They have announced to the world that they are a serious force that can contend for the top honours and this campaign is just the beginning. There's some speculation that Warren Gatland might have his eye on the New Zealand job but I know him to be a loyal professional. Having achieved what he has with this side, he will now want to see how far he can take them. Wales will already be thinking about 2015.

Friday's third-place play-off against Australia could be a classic. I'm certain that the World Cup is going to be a better tournament for this contest. This match often comes down to who wants it most - Argentina's victory over France four years ago is a prime example - but, in this respect, there's nothing to choose between the sides. Both coaches have named their strongest squads and both are determined to win.

When you look at the attacking quality on show, it's an amazing prospect. Momentum has been key for Wales and, while defeat at this level always hurts, I don't think theirs will have been halted by losing to France. Warburton and Adam Jones will miss this match but, while both are big losses, a strong team on a good run can absorb change. Wales will take this match as an opportunity to establish themselves as a major world rugby power.

For Australia, it's a chance to prove that they really are the second best team in the world. They came up against an unstoppable New Zealand side last Sunday but the likes of David Pocock and Kurtley Beale will get themselves back up for this one. Of course, by meeting New Zealand in the semi-final they were paying the price for losing against Ireland in the Pool stage. Had they won that match they would have fancied their chances against England and France.

But Robbie Deans won't allow his men to go out with regret in their hearts on Friday. This is going to be a feast of tit-for-tat running rugby and we could see well over 40 points. With their selections, the coaches have set the precedent for a fierce battle and I expect the players to do them proud. I'm out here with a few Welsh supporters and I want them to win it but I just feel the Wallabies will sneak it.

Recommended Bets
3pts Back Australia @ 1.82
3pts Back Australia to win by -12.5 points @ 2.92
1pt Back Wales/Australia in the Half-time/Full-time @ 8.4

For more Rugby World Cup betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/rugby-union/world-cup/