WillGreenwood

The Heineken Cup is an extremely difficult tournament to win which is why players and punters love it. Europe's premier rugby competition is the biggest stage outside the international game and offers teams the chance to test themselves against the best.

I learned a hard lesson when I played in the final for Leicester against Brive in 1997. That Tigers side also featured Dean Richards, Martin Johnson and Austin Healy and, having beaten Toulouse in the semi, we ran out at Cardiff Arms Park full of momentum and confidence. But we got mauled by a fierce French side, I still have the footprint of Grzegorz Kacala, their monster number eight, printed on my chest. Not a good day but a great occasion and a formative experience.

I've said before that teams that take the big prizes often have a few failures behind them and you might bear that in mind when deciding who to back this year. For that reason, some bettors will fancy Saracens at 12.0 but I'm not convinced. They will benefit from having Treviso in their Pool but Biarritz and the Ospreys could prevent them from reaching the next round.

I'm afraid I don't think we'll get a first English winner for five seasons this year. The Betfair market fancies Leinster for what would be the third time in four seasons but I think they will struggle without Brian O'Driscoll. The Irishman is one of the all time great centres and his absence is a huge blow both to his club's hopes of retaining the Heineken and his country's Six Nations hopes.

Welsh rugby is in fine fettle at present and the likes of Sam Warburton, Gethin Jenkins and Jamie Roberts will carry their World Cup form into Cardiff Blues' campaign. Rhys Priestland and Jonathan Davies will do likewise for the Scarlets, who have a very useful backline, while the Ospreys have made decent signings. But it's a long time since a Welsh side has made it beyond the quarter-finals and that's why you get such long odds on them.

So I'm afraid I'm looking across La Manche for a winner. Toulouse remain behemoths of the European game, especially at fortress Ernest Wallon, and I can see why punters rate them neck and neck with Leinster. But speaking of necks, I'm going to stick mine out and back Clermont to triumph for the first time in their history.

Like all French teams, Vern Cotter's men are capable of shooting themselves in the foot but they made great acquisitions in the summer. Sitiveni Sivivatu, Benoit Cabello, Lee Byrne and many more bolster an already formidable squad which is lead by Aurelien Rougierre, the centre who put in a superb World Cup final performance against New Zealand.

You'll notice that I'm going against the Vulcans at Ulster this week - "within the sound of their own church bells," and all that - but I believe they will be almost unbeatable at home. That's why Clermont are my Heineken Cup 2011 picks.

Recommended Bet
Back Clermont @ 11.5 to win the Heineken Cup

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