WillGreenwood

[u]Last week[/u] England were 3.5 to beat South Africa in the first Test in Durban. Odds of 5.3 on a Red Rose second Test win this Saturday tell you a lot about the nature of international rugby tours. Lose the first Test and it's extremely difficult to regain momentum. That's why 3-0 South Africa is in to 1.6 in the Series Correct Score market and I have to admit that I wouldn't argue against that price. England weren't awful last week but they will probably never have a better chance of winning a Test in South Africa than they did against Heyneke Meyer's transitional team. Stuart Lancaster's side were expected to benefit from their extra preparation time but it was the Springboks who played with confidence and continuity. Early on we saw how dangerous it is to give South Africa's...

I have tons of admiration and affection for both Leicester and Harlequins but, asked to choose between my two old clubs, I draw on the detachment and expertise that I've gained as a rugby analyst. Sorry if that sounds dry and technical but, after Brian O'Driscoll and co. blitzed last week's bets, we need a measured approach to Saturday's Aviva Premiership Final. What a performance that was from Leinster - although, strictly speaking, backing to lay Ulster was the right way to go because they were 3-0 up after ten minutes. But seriously, of the many lessons to be taken from the Heineken Cup final, Leinster reminded us why big match experience is so valuable. Bear that in mind this week because Leicester have played in the last three Premiership finals, they know what it takes to win and...

There isn't a bettor in the world who would have predicted this semi-final. Both Ulster and Edinburgh pulled off big upsets in the quarters and the last four of the Heineken Cup are unchartered waters for many of the players involved. Ulster won this competition in 1999 but for their current squad Sunday's semi-final is a huge and daunting occasion. I don't think they'll be phased by last weekend's defeat to Heineken favourites Leinster and they will have been raring to get on with this one all week. For Edinburgh it will be exactly the same. They have already achieved an enormous amount by getting this far - I see one brave punter got matched at 1000.00 in the outright winner market - and, as the first Scottish club to reach the semis, I take my hat off to Michael Bradley's men. Whether...

Warren Gatland was using reverse psychology when he spoke earlier this week of Wales' many defeats at Twickenham over the last two decades. I played in an England team that didn't lose at home for over four years so, just as it might be difficult for the Welsh to visualise winning at Twickenham, it's weird for me to see the Red Rose as 2.66 outsiders on their own patch. Of all the home nations, I enjoyed beating Wales most. Stuart Lancaster's young team are in for a serious test on Saturday but I'd give anything for another crack at the Dragon. There's plenty that I admire about this Welsh team and, although the picture is skewed by France's postponement in round two, Wales have so far been the top Six Nations performers. England are building confidence and gelling as a unit but Wales...

Phillipe Saint-Andre will have been as frustrated as Declan Kidney when France's match against Ireland was cancelled. Les Bleus played with poise and panache against Italy in round one and he won't have wanted anything to stymie the flow of his elegant attack. You might expect Aurelien Rougerie and Wesley Fofana to run riot against this ragged Scotland team but Andy Robinson remains an astute coach and I think the changes he's made for this match should mean the hosts stay in touch. France might be restricted to under ten points in the first-half and the home side could be level or even ahead at the break. You'll be able to get good odds on Scotland/France in the half-time/full-time market and I advise a small stakes wager. I like Stuart Hogg, the teenage full-back who will make his...

After the last minute cancellation of their round two match against France, the Irish are desperate to get on to the pitch and score some points. Their defeat to Wales was a long time ago now but they've been sitting around stewing about it ever since. The Six Nations is all about momentum and, when you're pumped up to play, the last thing you need is to be thwarted by the weather. Ireland will be pleased to be back at the Aviva Stadium and a match against wooden spoon favourites Italy might be just what they need to get the campaign started. I like the Auzzurri under Jacques Brunel, they look potent in attack and I was impressed by their initiative early on against England. However, Stuart Lancaster's side were there for the taking in Rome and, if Italy couldn't beat the Red Rose...

I was very pleased by many aspects of England's round one win over Scotland. Their energy and commitment were first rate, there was a new desire about them which is very encouraging for the future and, of course, winning at Murrayfield for the first time in eight years is something all Red Rose fans were delighted by. But I can understand why bettors aren't getting carried away by the result and current odds of 6.0 on England in the Six Nations winner market is fair. Stuart Lancaster has obviously told his players to go out and smash opponents. They had an extraordinarily high tackle count at Murrayfield and they displayed immense physical strength to keep the hosts out. But they were playing against an indecisive attack that, on current form, couldn't buy a try. Owen Farrell showed...

I'm baffled by the odds on Saturday's Six Nations opener between Scotland and England. The hosts are favourites with everybody except bettors and I won't be putting my money anywhere near the 1.78 on Stuart Lancaster's young team. This is Scotland's chance to record a famous victory. England go up to Murrayfield with an untested team, which has been selected by three respected but, at this level at least, inexperienced coaches. They haven't won north of the border since 2004 and the Scots will be determined to avenge the narrow defeat that dumped them out of the World Cup. New Zealand was a nadir for English rugby and, while I like what Stuart Lancaster has said and done so far, it can't be forgotten that the Red Rose are trying to rebuild after a demoralising autumn. Don't think ...

Whether or not I wanted to back Italy to beat France last year is a bone of contention between the Betfair editors and I. I say I did and they told me I was mad. They say it was the other way around. Who are you going to believe: the man who's been there and done it or the men who spend their time bleating on the sidelines? We certainly agree that there will be no repeat upset in Paris this weekend. Bettors agree, which is why France are 1.05 and Italy 27.0. There's no value there so we will have to look at the winning margin markets on Betfair. Following the at times shambolic Marc Lievremont era, France should be far more consistent under Philipe Saint-Andre. That makes them more bettor-friendly. I expect them to run in an avalanche of points on Saturday that will give them momentum...