WillGreenwood

Last week

England were 3.5 to beat South Africa in the first Test in Durban. Odds of 5.3 on a Red Rose second Test win this Saturday tell you a lot about the nature of international rugby tours. Lose the first Test and it's extremely difficult to regain momentum. That's why 3-0 South Africa is in to 1.6 in the Series Correct Score market and I have to admit that I wouldn't argue against that price.

England weren't awful last week but they will probably never have a better chance of winning a Test in South Africa than they did against Heyneke Meyer's transitional team. Stuart Lancaster's side were expected to benefit from their extra preparation time but it was the Springboks who played with confidence and continuity.

Early on we saw how dangerous it is to give South Africa's backs any extra impetus when Ben Youngs' wayward kick allowed Bryan Habana to build-up momentum running from deep. They got away with it once and, going in to the second-half, I felt pretty good about my bet on a 51-60 minute first try. South Africa were relentless, I was praying that England could hold out against the hosts' waves of pressure but watching Morne Steyn go over in the 49th was agonising. When England were caught defending too narrowly for Jean de Villiers try it was salt in the wound.

Team changes

England will be a faster, looser outfit with Toby Flood at ten. I'm sorry for Bradley Barritt but I am excited by Manu Tuilagi's move inside as Jonathan Joseph comes in to the centre for his first cap. This is the combination that I expect to see for England at the next World Cup. I thought they'd have to wait at least another year but circumstances mean that Joseph gets his chance early. Don't expect fireworks yet but, with time, work and luck, this could turn out to be a legendary partnership. Tuilagi might be our Sonny Bill Williams. He and Joseph have balance, power, pace and the ability to skin opponents.

Altitude

Having played at Ellis Park, for the British Lions in 1997, I can confirm that the altitude is as much of a problem for tourists as everybody claims. The comparison that's most often drawn is with how it feels to suffer a punctured lung. Thankfully, I wouldn't know what that's like but I remember the strange, stifling sensation of gasping for air while trying to stop a World Cup-winning attack.

Best bets

I fear for England against a buoyed South Africa but we can compete in Johannesburg. Remember, it was following that catastrophic second-half against Wales that England went to Paris and won when nobody expected them too. England were far from disastrous last weekend. The road to 2015 will be long and, occasionally for bettors, treacherous but Lancaster is building and I'm encouraged by the line-up he's selected. South Africa might score early and maintain a comfortable advantage throughout but they won't be out of sight at the end. I like the look of the home win by less than 12.5 points.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back South Africa to win by -12.5 points @ 2.52
2pts Back South Africa/South Africa @ 1.51
1pt Back 21-30 minutes for the first try

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I have tons of admiration and affection for both Leicester and Harlequins but, asked to choose between my two old clubs, I draw on the detachment and expertise that I've gained as a rugby analyst. Sorry if that sounds dry and technical but, after Brian O'Driscoll and co. blitzed last week's bets, we need a measured approach to Saturday's Aviva Premiership Final.

What a performance that was from Leinster - although, strictly speaking, backing to lay Ulster was the right way to go because they were 3-0 up after ten minutes. But seriously, of the many lessons to be taken from the Heineken Cup final, Leinster reminded us why big match experience is so valuable. Bear that in mind this week because Leicester have played in the last three Premiership finals, they know what it takes to win and what it's like to lose and that will stand them in good stead against the less-seasoned Quins.

Harlequins won at Welford Road in October but don't read anything in to that. Leicester haven't lost a league match since then and, following the return of their World Cup players, they have been awesome. They powered their way back from 11th in the table to finish second and, if you want pointers to how the final may pan out, their 43-33 win at the Stoop in April provides them.

Half-time/Full-time

I know this one backfired last week but it's important to note that Leicester came from 13 points down to pull off their away win to Quins. Both number eights crossed the whitewash that day and the battle between Thomas Waldrom and Nick Easter is going to be crucial once again. With their old school attitudes and attributes, these two might have nutritionists pulling their hair out but they're both exemplary readers of the game. Big-boned bruisers who will be in the thick of it when the teams batter each other in the initial exchanges. I actually think we might get an early breakthrough so have a small bet on 11-20 minutes for first try.

Word is Toby Flood won't be fit but George Ford, who outplayed Owen Farrell in the semi-final, is an able replacement and the match-up between him and Nick Evans intrigues. At nine, Danny Care has been in blistering form since returning to the side and it's between him and opposite scrum-half Ben Youngs for who starts for England in South Africa. Youngs is playing well and his ability to open up defences, as he did against Argentina at the World Cup, could prove decisive if it's close in the second-half. I think it could be. In spite of Leinster's demolition of Ulster, I'm keeping faith with the win-from-behind pattern of finals and backing Harlequins/Leicester.

Winning Margin

Having lead the table for most of the season, Harlequins will believe that they have been the best team. The table never lies, as Sir Alex Ferguson was recently forced to acknowledge. Seeing how Leinster drew on their big match experience last week has swayed me toward the Leicester victory. They have the power and pedigree to prevail, but not by much.

Recommended Bets
3pts Back Harlequins/Leicester @ 6.6
3pts Back Leicester to win by -12.5 points @ 1.85
1pt Back 11-20 for first try

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Odds of 1.29 on Leinster to win a third Heineken Cup in four seasons? Madness. You'd have to be deluded to take that bet. Either that or you haven't watched any recent finals.

I said in my semi-final preview that I'm always reluctant to bet against Leinster and my fears proved justified. Having backed Clermont at the start of the season, I had to stick with the French side and I was gutted to see my 16/1 melt in the Bordeaux sun. I don't necessarily go along with those who say that game was the real 2012 Heineken Final because I think we're in for a thriller at Twickenham, but the second semi was an epic. The champions started brilliantly, Clermont powered their way back but Jonny Sexton made the difference. He pulled his men together and called for a technically brilliant move that split the French defence and put Cian Healy in. Somehow they hung on as Clermont rallied late.

The match reminded us that teams that don't get more than seven points up are always vulnerable. No prizes for punditry there but in-play punters take note because I expect a close final. Ulster got some stick after their 22-19 victory over Edinburgh and they know they must raise their game if they're to have a chance. At 4.9, bettors aren't giving them any but I disagree.

The best thing they can do is forget the semi-final and remind themselves of their earlier wins over Leicester and Munster. If those games they were ferocious up front, nimble in midfield. Against Edinburgh, their error count was high and Brian O'Driscoll and Sexton will punish them if there is a repeat. Whether Brian McLaughlin selects Paddy Jackson or Ian Humphries at fly-half is very important but the key man will be Ruan Pienaar once again.

Can they win?

Leinster beat Saints 33-22 last year but the previous three Heineken Cup finals were all settled by a margin of three points. We saw a nail-biter at the semi-final stage of the Premiership last weekend as Harlequins edged Saints by two and, of course, last autumn the World Cup final between New Zealand and France was a far closer contest than anticipated. It takes nine months of hard work, focus and finesse to reach a club final and any team who get there is unlikely to be overwhelmed on the big stage.

In-play and HT/FT advice

I think Ulster will be ahead for extended periods. In-play bettors should back them pre-match and lay them in the second-half. For me, the 60 minute mark is key and if you do have that bet on the underdogs you must assess the situation on the hour. Up to you if you take my advice or hang in but I'm confident of taking decent odds of 6.6 on Ulster/Leinster in the half-time/full-time market and Ulster +.7.5 points at evens.

Consider the draw @ 34.0?

This is going to be a really close fought affair. If you're at the game, you'll be watching the final 20 minutes from behind your programme, whichever team you're backing. One of these days we're going to get a drawn final. This match-up is as likely as any other to produce a draw so, as it's the end of the season, I recommend a small stakes bet on the draw at 34.0.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Ulster @ 4.9 to lay
2pts Back Ulster/Leinster @ 6.6 in the half-time/full-time market
1pt Back the draw @ 34.0

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There isn't a bettor in the world who would have predicted this semi-final. Both Ulster and Edinburgh pulled off big upsets in the quarters and the last four of the Heineken Cup are unchartered waters for many of the players involved.

Ulster won this competition in 1999 but for their current squad Sunday's semi-final is a huge and daunting occasion. I don't think they'll be phased by last weekend's defeat to Heineken favourites Leinster and they will have been raring to get on with this one all week. For Edinburgh it will be exactly the same. They have already achieved an enormous amount by getting this far - I see one brave punter got matched at 1000.00 in the outright winner market - and, as the first Scottish club to reach the semis, I take my hat off to Michael Bradley's men.

Whether Edinburgh can reproduce the panache and fearlessness that they played with against Racing Metro and Toulouse is another matter. Semi-finals are very emotional occasions. For the winners, the biggest match in European club ruby awaits, while for the losers there are recriminations and a haunting sense of what might have been. Every Edinburgh and Ulster player will have gone through the kick-off in their heads several times already but this contest will, in part, be won in the heart. I don't mean it will come down to who wants it more - I mean that whoever can turn their nerves into energy, marshal the adrenalin and get the simple things right, will triumph.

Ulster have the obvious advantage of playing the match at the Aviva Stadium. They were magnificent in overcoming Munster in their titanic quarter-final. Their powerful South African backbone and homegrown heavy-weights combine so that the more nimble men up above, such as Paddy Wallace and Ian Humphries, can cause damage in open space. All did their job as Ulster stormed into the lead at Thomond Park and then stood firm when Munster rallied in the second-half.

Edinburgh's back row have been sensational, with David Denton, Ross Renie and Netani Talei all on the scoresheet in Paris. The nine-ten interchange between Mike Blair and Greig Laidlaw will give the Irish defence plenty to think about. In the end, however, I expect the Edinburgh fairytale to come to an end. They've given their nation's rugby fans something to celebrate, following a dismal Six Nations, but Ulster will be too strong. I expect them to prevail by around eight points and reach their first final for 13 years.

Recommended Bet
Back Ulster -7.5 points @ 2.08

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was surprised to see France blow their Grand Slam chance by drawing with Ireland but I'm astonished by Philipe Saint-Andre's team selections for Sunday's clash with England.

Out goes Morgan Parra, out goes Francois Trin-Duch and I fail to understand either decision. I'm a huge fan of Trin-Duch, he's tough, he has a touch of class and, with one magical offload, he set up France's opening points last week. By replacing him with Lionel Beauxis, Saint-Andre has put all his faith in kicking prowess. The Toulouse man, who had a shocker against England in the 2007 World Cup semi-final, will be expected to pin England's defence deep inside their own half but I'm not convinced it will work.

Never before have I seen a France coach select his side in response to the threat posed by England. By picking Beauxis that's what Saint-Andre has done. Why? France are 1.42 favourites, they have by far the more settled, experienced team and they are at home. I was no fan of Marc Lievremont, he was guilty of some bizarre management, but he never allowed his team sheet to be dictated by England's strengths.

England have been very good at harassing opposition backs. Dan Parks retired following Charlie Hodgson's charge down at Murrayfield, Andre Masi was punished for his carelessness in Rome and Rhys Priestland had possibly his worst ever game for Wales at Twickenham. So on that level I appreciate Saint-Andre's thinking: Beauxis' long kicking will restrict England and earn France territory. That's the idea but I would still have still favoured Trin-Duch's composure and strength, because there is no doubt that he is the superior ten.

Saint-Andre wants to look shrewd and decisive. He's trying to send a message to his new charges that mistakes will not be tolerated but I think England will be encouraged. They have the impetus, they know France were rattled by Ireland's energy last weekend. I was encouraged by the partnership of Manu Tuilagi and Bradley Barritt against Wales and they, as well as the back row, will try to increase their line speed.

So with all that in mind, will I back England? I'm going to over to Paris with a group of Betfair customers, it's going to be a brilliant weekend and I would really like to put my money on the Red Rose. However, head before heart, I'm afraid I can't back Stuart Lancaster's young lions at 3.7 to pull this one off. Their attack has been criticised this week and, while I was pleased to hear Charlie Hodgson hit back, try-scoring is an issue. England have managed only two - less than both Scotland and Italy - and, while they have been aggressive and defensively brilliant, they need to take their chances against the big teams. They were punished for their profligacy against Wales and France could easily do the same this Sunday.

France possess too much class and they might yet scupper Wales' Grand Slam dream. Wesley Fofana has been one of the stars of the tournament and Thierry Dusautoir is the best player in the world. Back England to win in Paris? Ask me again when this team are a couple of years older.

Recommended Bet
2pts Back France to win by under 12.5 points @ 2.54

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Luck of the Irish? Not in the Six Nations 2012. First round defeat at home, a match postponed, then when it looked like they'd got back on track with a big win over Italy and a barnstormer in Paris, injury strikes again. At 4.7, is it worth backing Scotland to add to Declan Kidney's misery?

No team in the world would be unaffected by the absence of Paul O'Connell. The man is a mountain, a monster, a mighty front five dynamo who also happens to be in great form. However, I do like his replacement. Donnacha Ryan is a hard man, there are no bleach blonde locks for this behemoth and, like the player he's standing in for, he's astute too. I've been impressed by his displays for Munster and he won't be daunted by the challenge on Saturday.

Ireland will buoyed by what they achieved in Paris. Few people gave them any chance of stopping France, myself amongst them, but on the day they were magnificent. Their blitz defence overwhelmed Les Bleus, had them running up blind alleys and passing on rubbish ball. Aurelien Rougerie, one of the coolest customers in world rugby, was forced into a major error by the indefatigable Irish.

They couldn't sustain it though. Their energy levels dropped after the break and France had the quality to take advantage. That's the difference between Ireland and Wales. The latter have managed to perform for 80 minutes, whereas Ireland could only do it for 40.

If Scotland are to take anything from this match they need to do what Ireland did in Paris. It might surprise you to hear that I like this Scots team and I don't think they've been abysmal, as some have argued, in this tournament. They've now scored three tries, I was particularly pleased with Stuart Hogg's effort against France, but they still need to stop conceding soft scores in the second-half. If they can tighten up in defence, they will give themselves a chance of nicking something here.

The safe bet is to back Ireland to prevail, probably by under 12.5 points at 2.56, but brave punters will back Scotland pre-match with a view to trading out if their odds narrow in the first-half. Tommy Bowe is 1.22 to finish as Six Nations top tryscorer. Having crossed the whitewash five times already he's just one score off my tournament record.

Recommended Bet
2pts Back Ireland to win by under 12.5 points @ 2.56

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Warren Gatland was using reverse psychology when he spoke earlier this week of Wales' many defeats at Twickenham over the last two decades. I played in an England team that didn't lose at home for over four years so, just as it might be difficult for the Welsh to visualise winning at Twickenham, it's weird for me to see the Red Rose as 2.66 outsiders on their own patch.

Of all the home nations, I enjoyed beating Wales most. Stuart Lancaster's young team are in for a serious test on Saturday but I'd give anything for another crack at the Dragon. There's plenty that I admire about this Welsh team and, although the picture is skewed by France's postponement in round two, Wales have so far been the top Six Nations performers.

England are building confidence and gelling as a unit but Wales are on their way to becoming the finished article. After the controversial end to their World Cup campaign they could have become embittered and allowed their momentum to fizzle out. But they've got stronger and their formidable squad approach every match as though it's the final that might have been.

The return of Sam Warburton adds stealth and guile to Wales' supremely well-balanced back row. Lock Alun Wyn Jones will be a huge presence in the line-out so England debutant Geoff Parling is set for a tough introduction to Six Nations rugby. New fly-half Owen Farrell has been deservedly praised for his kicking but Wales will be able to rely on the equally unflappable Leigh Halfpenny.

Charlie Hodgson took his tries well against Scotland and Italy and his injury is a blow. However, Manu Tuilagi looked good returning for Leciester last week and he gives England extra penetration in midfield, a gain line they have so far lacked. I'm looking forward to seeing how he combines with Bradley Barritt.

To state the bleeding obvious, this is a really tough one to call. It's a pivotal match for both teams: if England win, they go to Paris with their chances of retaining the championship still alive. After two narrow away victories they could be due a comprehensive win. You always feel a big performance is around the corner but, then again, we said that at the World Cup and it never arrived. If Wales triumph at Twickenham, they only have to beat Italy to set up a likely Grand Slam showdown against France in Cardiff.

So where to put my money? At the odds available, and with a packed Twickenham behind them for the first time this year, I'm going to back England. Their come from behind show in Rome made us a pretty penny so Wales/England in the half-time/full-time market gets the nod. If either bet comes in, I'll be celebrating a great result with big winnings.

Recommended Bets
1pt Back England @ 2.66
1pt Back Wales/England in the Half-time/Full-time market 9.0

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Phillipe Saint-Andre will have been as frustrated as Declan Kidney when France's match against Ireland was cancelled. Les Bleus played with poise and panache against Italy in round one and he won't have wanted anything to stymie the flow of his elegant attack.

You might expect Aurelien Rougerie and Wesley Fofana to run riot against this ragged Scotland team but Andy Robinson remains an astute coach and I think the changes he's made for this match should mean the hosts stay in touch. France might be restricted to under ten points in the first-half and the home side could be level or even ahead at the break. You'll be able to get good odds on Scotland/France in the half-time/full-time market and I advise a small stakes wager.

I like Stuart Hogg, the teenage full-back who will make his first international start on Sunday, and the nine/ten combination of Greig Laidlaw and Mike Blair is the right one for this contest. Actually, if Robinson had gone with that pair for the visit of England things could have been very different.

Scotland's inability to cross the whitewash has been well-documented. I reckon Sunday afternoon could be the occasion when they give their loyal fans something to cheer. Would I back them to score the first try at 2.72? Probably not, but the desire they showed against Wales does bode well. In the end, I expect France's class to tell and I can see them prevailing by about eight points.

Recommended Bets
Back France to win by under 12.5 points @ 2.44

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After the last minute cancellation of their round two match against France, the Irish are desperate to get on to the pitch and score some points. Their defeat to Wales was a long time ago now but they've been sitting around stewing about it ever since. The Six Nations is all about momentum and, when you're pumped up to play, the last thing you need is to be thwarted by the weather.

Ireland will be pleased to be back at the Aviva Stadium and a match against wooden spoon favourites Italy might be just what they need to get the campaign started.

I like the Auzzurri under Jacques Brunel, they look potent in attack and I was impressed by their initiative early on against England. However, Stuart Lancaster's side were there for the taking in Rome and, if Italy couldn't beat the Red Rose there, bettors are probably right to rate them big outsiders in Dublin.

I said last time out that Ireland love to bounce back. They would have been up against it to return to wining ways in Paris but Saturday's home tie offers them the chance to rediscover their groove and put significant points on the board.

They beat Italy by a significant margin at the World Cup and, if they play to their potential, the Irish can do so again here. If they want to turn the Parisian debacle into a positive, they will see their rescheduled match against France as a game in hand over their Six Nations rivals.

Recommended Bet
2pts Back Ireland @ 1.59 to win by over 12.5 points

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I was very pleased by many aspects of England's round one win over Scotland. Their energy and commitment were first rate, there was a new desire about them which is very encouraging for the future and, of course, winning at Murrayfield for the first time in eight years is something all Red Rose fans were delighted by.

But I can understand why bettors aren't getting carried away by the result and current odds of 6.0 on England in the Six Nations winner market is fair. Stuart Lancaster has obviously told his players to go out and smash opponents. They had an extraordinarily high tackle count at Murrayfield and they displayed immense physical strength to keep the hosts out. But they were playing against an indecisive attack that, on current form, couldn't buy a try.

Owen Farrell showed heaps of commitment, kicking crucial points and tackling players twice his size. But he stood too close to the ruck and, against less profligate opposition, such naivety will be punished. England are playing with a less structured defence than in the past but, while enthusiasm will get you a long way, if England give up possession in Paris they will lose by 20 points. They need to control the ball better so that they can build pressure. Remember, their only try was a result of Dan Parks' career-ending error.

England have never failed to win in Rome but facing a good Italy team at the Stadio de Olimpico will be tougher than playing at the Stadio Flaminio ever was. There will be 80,000 Azzurri fans cheering the team on, Jacques Brunel's men will be suffused with national pride, tears flowing down their faces at the anthem.

This Italian side are about than passion though. I was impressed by how they went about the daunting task of playing France in round one and thought they were unlucky to lose by such a big margin. Italy managed to control possession for extended periods and, while they still struggle to break opponents down, I do think that Tommaso Benvenuti in particular will provide England's defence with a stern test. Up front, Sergio Parisse, whose class has never been in doubt, is complemented by Robert Barbieri and Italy's back row is at least the equal of visitors.

An England win is by no means the gimme that the market suggests. Just as several England players hail from Saracens, the same is true of the Italy team and Treviso. The two clubs met in the Heineken Cup last month with Sarries winning 26-20 so that result could provide pointers.
France lost here last season and, if I was a braver bettor, I'd back Italy to pull off another shock. England won 17-12 in Rome two years ago and I anticipate a similarly tight match. A start of 7.5 points would have given them victory then and I believe it will suffice at the Olimpico. I'm also going to back Italy to be ahead at the break before England edge them in the second-half.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Italy + 7.5 points @ 2.08
2pts Back Italy/England @ 8.2 in the Half-time/Full-time market

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