WillGreenwood

Whether or not I wanted to back Italy to beat France last year is a bone of contention between the Betfair editors and I. I say I did and they told me I was mad. They say it was the other way around. Who are you going to believe: the man who's been there and done it or the men who spend their time bleating on the sidelines?

We certainly agree that there will be no repeat upset in Paris this weekend. Bettors agree, which is why France are 1.05 and Italy 27.0. There's no value there so we will have to look at the winning margin markets on Betfair.

Following the at times shambolic Marc Lievremont era, France should be far more consistent under Philipe Saint-Andre. That makes them more bettor-friendly. I expect them to run in an avalanche of points on Saturday that will give them momentum to take into their home match against Ireland next week. Two home wins could be the foundations of a tenth French Grand Slam.

Spare a thought for new Italy coach Jacques Brunel. The Azzurri will be as obdurate under him as they were under Nick Mallet but the Frenchman will not relish a meeting with his home nation in his first match in charge. Expect Italy to try to keep it tight up front but French class to prevail by around 20 points, setting down a marker for a winning campaign.

Recommended Bet
3pts Back France to win by over 12.5 points at 1.42

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