WillGreenwood

Australia v Wales, Friday 08:30 (ITV1)

Will Wales rally themselves after last week's agonising defeat to France? I believe they will but they have my sympathy because I thought Alain Rolland was completely wrong to send off Sam Warburton. The opening 20 minutes of a World Cup semi-final is an intense time with players making big hits and hard tackles but I didn't think Warburton got carried away. There was nothing malicious about his tackle on Vincent Clerc and Rolland's snap decision killed a huge game.

Wales should be very proud of what they have achieved over the last six weeks. They have announced to the world that they are a serious force that can contend for the top honours and this campaign is just the beginning. There's some speculation that Warren Gatland might have his eye on the New Zealand job but I know him to be a loyal professional. Having achieved what he has with this side, he will now want to see how far he can take them. Wales will already be thinking about 2015.

Friday's third-place play-off against Australia could be a classic. I'm certain that the World Cup is going to be a better tournament for this contest. This match often comes down to who wants it most - Argentina's victory over France four years ago is a prime example - but, in this respect, there's nothing to choose between the sides. Both coaches have named their strongest squads and both are determined to win.

When you look at the attacking quality on show, it's an amazing prospect. Momentum has been key for Wales and, while defeat at this level always hurts, I don't think theirs will have been halted by losing to France. Warburton and Adam Jones will miss this match but, while both are big losses, a strong team on a good run can absorb change. Wales will take this match as an opportunity to establish themselves as a major world rugby power.

For Australia, it's a chance to prove that they really are the second best team in the world. They came up against an unstoppable New Zealand side last Sunday but the likes of David Pocock and Kurtley Beale will get themselves back up for this one. Of course, by meeting New Zealand in the semi-final they were paying the price for losing against Ireland in the Pool stage. Had they won that match they would have fancied their chances against England and France.

But Robbie Deans won't allow his men to go out with regret in their hearts on Friday. This is going to be a feast of tit-for-tat running rugby and we could see well over 40 points. With their selections, the coaches have set the precedent for a fierce battle and I expect the players to do them proud. I'm out here with a few Welsh supporters and I want them to win it but I just feel the Wallabies will sneak it.

Recommended Bets
3pts Back Australia @ 1.82
3pts Back Australia to win by -12.5 points @ 2.92
1pt Back Wales/Australia in the Half-time/Full-time @ 8.4

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